The Durban ramp-up continues – Climate refugee problem now equated to brain surgery

From the University of Florida , it’s worse than we thought. Moving people around requires brain surgeon like skills, I kid you not.

Then there’s that mighty big if:  “If global temperatures increase by only a few of degrees by 2100…”. I predict that in the not too distant future, there will be a TV show about climate refugees, maybe at the ABC in Australia, which will combine the boat people refugee problem there with climate refugees. We’ll see episode after episode of boat people sailing to a different island each week, fighting the local natives for access and supplies..sort of like the old campy original “Battlestar Galactica” meets “Mad Max”. I’d say a Climate refugees TV show is more plausible than climate refugees in our lifetime.

Gotta love the quotes in the PR:

“Transplanting a population and its culture from one location to another is a complex process — as complicated as brain surgery,”

Huh. I learn something new every day. Maybe they’ll borrow from the Star Trek episode “Spocks Brain” too. First though, what we need are actual climate refugees.

Governments must plan for migration in response to climate change, researchers say

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Governments around the world must be prepared for mass migrations caused by rising global temperatures or face the possibility of calamitous results, say University of Florida scientists on a research team reporting in the Oct. 28 edition of Science

If global temperatures increase by only a few of degrees by 2100, as predicted by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, people around the world will be forced to migrate. But transplanting populations from one location to another is a complicated proposition that has left millions of people impoverished in recent years. The researchers say that a word of caution is in order and that governments should take care to understand the ramifications of forced migration.

A consortium of 12 scientists from around the world, including two UF researchers, gathered last year at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Bellagio Center to review 50 years of research related to population resettlement following natural disasters or the installation of infrastructure development projects such as dams and pipelines. The group determined that resettlement efforts in the past have left communities in ruin, and that policy makers need to use lessons from the past to protect people who are forced to relocate because of climate change.

“The effects of climate change are likely to be experienced by as many people as disasters,” UF anthropologist Anthony Oliver-Smith said. “More people than ever may be moving in response to intense storms, increased flooding and drought that makes living untenable in their current location.”

“Sometimes the problem is simply a lack of regard for the people ostensibly in the way of progress,” said Oliver-Smith, an emeritus professor who has researched issues surrounding forced migration for more than 30 years. But resettlements frequently fail because the complexity of the task is underestimated. “Transplanting a population and its culture from one location to another is a complex process — as complicated as brain surgery,” he said.

“It’s going to be a matter of planning ahead now,” said Burt Singer, a courtesy faculty member at the UF Emerging Pathogens Institute who worked with the research group. He too has studied issues related to population resettlement for decades.

Singer said that regulatory efforts promoted by the International Finance Corporation, the corporate lending arm of the World Bank, are helping to ensure the well-being of resettled communities in some cases. But as more people are relocated — especially very poor people with no resources — financing resettlement operations in the wake of a changing climate could become a real challenge.

Planning and paying for resettlement is only part of the challenge, Oliver-Smith said. “You need informed, capable decision makers to carry out these plans,” he said. A lack of training and information can derail the best-laid plans. He said the World Bank increasingly turns to anthropologists to help them evaluate projects and outcomes of resettlement.

“It is a moral imperative,” Oliver-Smith said. Also, a simple cost-benefit analysis shows that doing resettlement poorly adds to costs in the future. Wasted resources and the costs of malnutrition, declining health, infant and elder mortality, and the destruction of families and social networks should be included in the total cost of a failed resettlement, he said.

Oliver-Smith said the cautionary tales of past failures yield valuable lessons for future policy makers, namely because they point out many of the potential pitfalls than can beset resettlement projects. But they also underscore the fact that there is a heavy price paid by resettled people, even in the best-case scenarios.

In the coming years, he said, many projects such as hydroelectric dams and biofuel plantations will be proposed in the name of climate change, but moving people to accommodate these projects may not be the simple solution that policy makers sometimes assume.

A clear-eyed review of the true costs of forced migration could alert governments to the complexities and risks of resettlement.

“If brain surgeons had the sort of success rate that we have had with resettling populations, very few people would opt for brain surgery,” he said.

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Donna Hesterman, donna.hesterman@ufl.edu, 352-846-2573
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Anthony Oliver-Smith, aros@ufl.edu, 352-377-8359
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Burton H. Singer, bhsinger@epi.ufl.edu, 352-273-9572

Latitude
Richard Day

I want to be a climate refugee. Right now, AGW is making Toronto winters colder and longer. And don’t get me started on walking the dogs in the morning when it’s pitch black outside. The UN should allocate strategic Caribbean islands for northern refugees (like me) from November to March.

Rick Bradford

I’m still waiting to greet the 50 million climate refugees the UN said would be created by 2010..

Robert

Sad. Very sad. Just plain propaganda dressed up as “science”. I suppose we can expect more of this leading up to Durban. Too bad so many people and politicians actually believe this drivel.

crosspatch

Just because someone prints it doesn’t mean anyone believes it. There has never been a “climate resettlement” nor will there ever be. They make it sound like you go to bed one night and it is normal, wake up the next morning and it is too hot to live there anymore. What is MORE likely to happen is the opposite. Crops will begin to fail in Canada and Northern Russia as temperatures cool causing populations to have to migrate South. Luckily those populations are already small.
Temperatures warming by 1 degree in a century isn’t enough to make anyone move. Temperatures cooling by 1 degree certainly can make people move. Places where a marginal crop could be harvested will become unable to sustain farming and the people will have to move.

P.G. Sharrow

“If brain surgeons had the sort of success rate that we have had with resettling populations, very few people would opt for brain surgery,” said Oliver-Smith, an emeritus professor
Professionals like professor Oliver-Smith are bragging about being being incompetent?
Millions of poor people relocate themselves every year with out “Professional” help. Maybe they are best off not helped by professionals.
Humans have been pushed around by climate change for millions of years. Humans were created by adaption to climate change. It appears to me that climate change is the normal condition and abrupt change is not unusual. pg

Curiousgeorge

I guess that means Genghis Khan was a brain surgeon then ( in a certain sense ). 😉

Dave Worley

Lots of climate refugees migrating to Florida this time of year. They call them snowbirds.

ferdberple

“Transplanting a population and its culture from one location to another is a complex process — as complicated as brain surgery,” he said.
Amazing, America is full of Europeans transplanted by brain surgeons.

OOOH, I Like It!
Morons. No citations, no links….. I damn well hope that none of these people were sociologists. Most of us may be progressive ideologues, but I’d like to think we’re not that kind of shill.

ferdberple

Oliver-Smith, an emeritus professor who has researched issues surrounding forced migration for more than 30 years. But resettlements frequently fail because the complexity of the task is underestimated. “Transplanting a population and its culture from one location to another is a complex process — as complicated as brain surgery,” he said.
Get a grip. Resettlements fail because people don’t want to be resettled. Ask the North American Indian. Apartheid is Apartheid, be it Indian reservations in the US or Canada, or homelands in South Africa. It is a land grab, all too often at the point of a gun, all dressed up in fine sounding language to save the “poor natives that can’t take care of themselves”.

Michael Palmer

Florida should have plenty of experiments with climate refugees – their snowbirds arrive every winter, loads and loads of them …

AndyG55

“If brain surgeons had the sort of success rate that we have had with resettling populations, very few people would opt for brain surgery,”
If brain surgeons had the success rate of AGW predictions, nobody in their right mind would go near them, even in the direst emergency !!!

4 eyes

Mr Oliver-Smith is extremely qualified if he can say that “Transplanting a population and its culture from one location to another is a complex process — as complicated as brain surgery” – because only someone who does brain surgery would know just how complicated it is. Just stick to the anthropology Mr Oliver-Smith because people won’t take you seriously if you say things like that.

“Transplanting a population and its culture from one location to another is a complex process — as complicated as brain surgery,”

The biggest problem is that to move a population (& attendant culture) you first have to move it halfway. Once you’ve done that, you have to move it half of the remaining distance. And then you have to move it half of the remaining half of a half. It gets really complicated after that. Best leave it to the rocket surgeons.

Mooloo

If brain surgeons had the sort of success rate that we have had with resettling populations, very few people would opt for brain surgery
I wasn’t aware a lot of people opted voluntarily for brain surgery. As far as I was aware it was only done as a last resort.
Anyway we already live in a world where most of the population of the countries supposedly needing resettlement would already leave if they could. What will change?

ferdberple

Richard Day says:
October 27, 2011 at 6:49 pm
The UN should allocate strategic Caribbean islands for northern refugees (like me) from November to March.
Don’t wait for the UN. Canada should buy Cuba today! It worked for the US with Alaska. Write Harper! Great weather. Plenty of room for 35 million ‘nucks over Xmas. The deal isn’t going to last once the Castro Bro’s are gone.

Gail Combs

GEE, three out of four of my grandparents relocated with no trouble AND sent all their kids to college in the 1920’s and 1930’s (1/2 female too)
The real refugees we have to worry about is the Aussies fleeing Carbon taxes…..

u.k.(us)

“It is a moral imperative,” Oliver-Smith said.
=============
The moral part is obviously individual.
The imperative part, is where you are really asking for trouble.

Ray Boorman

Oliver-Smith is a w*****er. I don’t know of many policy makers in Bangladesh able to make & carry out plans to move the population out of the Ganges delta, which is about the only location in the world which might be affected IF the CAGW scenario came true. From his comment, it sounds like he’ll use the Army to move people against their will, simply to satisfy his own belief system. In the real world, where I live in South East Queensland, Australia, there has not been a cyclone come down from the Coral Sea for several decades. When I was born in the 1950’s, through to the 1970’s, cyclones were a regular occurrence. Some seasons we had 3 or 4 come our way. Lots of rain resulted, but very little wind damage, except to banana & sugarcane crops.

Richard Day

@ferd berple. Robert Borden wanted Canada to annex the Turks & Caicos way back in 1917. Every now and then some backbencher raises the topic of them becoming another province but it’s never more than just talk. Idiot politicians. Don’t they know it’s worse than we thought and it may already be too late? Forget carbon credits; we need to put the precautionary principle into action, today. I will voluntarily move there for the winter to see if it is feasible for a mass Canadian climate refugee relocation.

Jeremy

Here’s a refugee from Gainsville, Florida (now lives in Beverly Hills) singing about it.

Ken Methven

OMG. What bollocks.
With any luck this will add to the piles of drivel on CC and people will start to get it – its all alarmist nonsense and we should recognise it is only to push agendas.

dp

I miss the days when climate refugees were known as nomads and were a proud and adaptive people. I wonder what the ghosts of the Anasazi and their descendants think of being called climate refugees. Imagine a world without fences.

Judy F.

Gosh, according to this article, my daughter is a climate refugee tonight. She had to leave her home on the Front Range of Colorado, after the “intense” snowstorm broke tree branches which slightly damaged the house and broke power lines, making her living situation “untenable”.
I thought it was just a bad snowstorm and that my daughter was smart to find another place to stay ( temporarily) where she was safe and warm. It makes it sound so much worse to say she is a climate refugee. I wonder if the World Bank would pay her rent this month?

Glenn

He had brain surgery on his mind.

AnonyMoose

Require that any related grants be available only to licensed and peer-reviewed brain surgeons. That will somewhat reduce the money spent.

u.k.(us)

Planning and paying for resettlement is only part of the challenge, Oliver-Smith said. “You need informed, capable decision makers to carry out these plans,” he said.
======
Sounds like the military to me.
This is what they do, all day, every day.
Plan for any contingency; although i’m not sure they plan for fantastical model runs from unverified climate computers.
I’m sure it wouldn’t hurt, to ask them to allay your fears.
I do wonder if it would be available under the FOI acts though.
Good luck.
FYI, everybody is watching and archiving everything.

crosspatch

There have been huge migrations over the past couple of hundred years. We settled the Western US, Europeans came to the US in droves, people are still migrating from Latin America to the US, hippies are moving to parks all across the country. Not exactly rocket surgery.

Geoff C

Seriously, this scenario could easily happen here in gullible Australia–
Some bureaucrat decides that a valid and positive test of refugee status is that a person is fleeing from unliveable conditions due to climate change.
This will then result in economic refugees like we have now having a new reason to get accepted here.
The bureaucrats and do-gooder lawyers will jump on and promote this and we will have climate refugees, maybe the first in the world.

Ursus Augustus

EUREKA !! THATS IT !! Thats the reason for all the AGW madness. The warmista’s have all had lobotomies!

Jeff D

Geoff C says:
October 27, 2011 at 8:51 pm
The bureaucrats and do-gooder lawyers will jump on and promote this and we will have climate refugees, maybe the first in the world.
__________________________
Sign me up please, cold front pushed into the state last night and I understand the climate there is much better. I need a 3 bedroom with an ocean view. How good is the welfare system there? I will need some money. Is there a chapter of the ows there? I don’t mind protesting if I get paid well.

For those who have followed the boat people to Australia saga, there is an inconsistency about these war refugees. You see, many go on a voyage from Afghanistan or Iraq to various counties including Malaysia. Then on to Indonesia, over the waters to Australia, who wants to send them back to Malaysia. But, having volunteered to go to Malaysia to get away from their fears at home, they do not volunteer to go back to Malaysia to live after interception.
A reasonable person might think that some of these refugees have chosen the country of their dreams and want to come to Paradise.This discredits their war refugee claims. It makes Aussies a bit angry that many of them go onto welfare and start breeding like rabbits. Heck, they can do that in any country on the way from the land they flee.

~FR

… review 50 years of research related to population resettlement following natural disasters or the installation of infrastructure development projects such as dams and pipelines.
But these listed situations happen suddenly. Has there ever been a real change in the *climate* of a place (causing a real alteration in flora + fauna) that has occurred in less than 100 years?

F. Ross

It is almost beyond belief that the taxpayers actually support these guys to sit in their ivory towers and produce – to put it politely – “garbage” like this.
Go figure.

I have that sinking feeling again. Like a lonely Pacific guyot, stripped of its population by a model disguised as a neurologist. I mean, uh, unbelievable.

The idea of having a plan in place for mass migration isn’t a bad one. There could be any number of reasons why large volumes of people might suddenly get up and go. We already have an enormous number coming into Canada and the United States every year. If this increased by only 100%, we’d have very serious problems.
Not only should there be plans in place for mass migrations, but those plans should also include various options according to the reason for the migrations. Certainly we would not deal with millions of refugees from an atomic devastation in the same way we’d deal with millions of refugees from an epidemic (and by “epidemic” I’m referring to the old meaning of epidemic: “Holy crap! Look at all the dead people!”)
Plans are good. We should have had at least some of these plans in place already. It’s just sad that, of all the probable scenarios there are for mass migrations, they had to pick the one that Kevin Costner rejected in favour Waterworld as being too improbable.

Willis Eschenbach

My very favorite part was this:

“It’s going to be a matter of planning ahead now,” said Burt Singer, a courtesy faculty member at the UF Emerging Pathogens Institute who worked with the research group. He too has studied issues related to population resettlement for decades.

A “courtesy” faculty member? At the “Emerging Pathogens Institute”? Who studies population resettlement?
That’s the most bizarre set of credentials I’ve seen in a while.
w.

And I just put on a clean white shirt, that I have to roll up and get dirty, OK.. where’s this going down? I can probably make it in a fue days, hang in there.

Greg Cavanagh

Willis;
Even stranger than Burt’s position, is the fact that some manager made the position available, filled the position with a body, and pays for someone to do that all day. I can’t guess what outcomes they were expecting from it.

CRS, Dr.P.H.

On the other hand, the US military & security apparatus take this stuff seriously:
http://www.trumanproject.org/files/nsm/NSM_2010_Climate_Change.pdf
….just sayin’….

Paul Marko

Once upon a time long, long ago, the brain surgeons on the Asian continent saw an opportunity to cross the land bridge to Alaska and establish a new clinic ahead of the migrating hoards. All went well until ….

Peter Wilson

“Transplanting a population and its culture from one location to another is a complex process — as complicated as brain surgery,”
Moving a population isn’t complicated. Its coercive and usually violent. Deciding a population should be moved is the act of a dictator, the implementation is invariably inhumane, and those being “relocated” never want to go – otherwise they would have gone already.

Neil Jones

“Transplanting a population and its culture from one location to another is a complex process”
Sounds like somebody had an attack of the “MultiCulties”

Surly they mean climate policy maker refugee or makers of policy. Call spade a spade or even tell an Irishman “there’s two shovels now take your pick “. the thing is if you actually said that to an Irish man you’d either be walking home with two picks and a shovel stuck in your head or you caved in and bought a fue rounds (work that one out).
OT Who’s round is it, that freaking American president and his missus came over here and drunk the bleeding world dry, have you ever seen the likes of it in your life?

Al Gored

“I predict that in the not too distant future, there will be a TV show about climate refugees”
Can hardly wait! Maybe a contest show called ‘Climate Survivor.’ Or a comedy called ‘Flee.’
The real mystery is why some purported do-gooder global ‘charity’ is not already running TV ads showing cute kids with big eyes and flies on their faces and claiming they are climate refugees. Too much competition from the WWF’s sponsor a polar bear business?

Alexander K

Another exhalation of meaningless puffery by rent-seeking oxygen thieves.
The UK is replete with hundreds of thousands of individuals and groups who moved there from some other colder/hotter/wetter/dryer country. Most of them would argue that they got there with totally untrained and often illiterate individuals assisting them and the entire process wasn’t too complicated or difficult, but it was expensive. Brain surgery it was not!

I’m not the least bit worried about climate refugees from Canada. Most Americans would love to hear a certain word function as a punctuation mark at the end of sentences, eh.

Stacey

Come on leave them alone, if Researchers say something is true it must be correct and that’s a no brainer:-/