From the University of Florida , it’s worse than we thought. Moving people around requires brain surgeon like skills, I kid you not.
Then there’s that mighty big if: “If global temperatures increase by only a few of degrees by 2100…”. I predict that in the not too distant future, there will be a TV show about climate refugees, maybe at the ABC in Australia, which will combine the boat people refugee problem there with climate refugees. We’ll see episode after episode of boat people sailing to a different island each week, fighting the local natives for access and supplies..sort of like the old campy original “Battlestar Galactica” meets “Mad Max”. I’d say a Climate refugees TV show is more plausible than climate refugees in our lifetime.
Gotta love the quotes in the PR:
“Transplanting a population and its culture from one location to another is a complex process — as complicated as brain surgery,”
Huh. I learn something new every day. Maybe they’ll borrow from the Star Trek episode “Spocks Brain” too. First though, what we need are actual climate refugees.
Governments must plan for migration in response to climate change, researchers say
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Governments around the world must be prepared for mass migrations caused by rising global temperatures or face the possibility of calamitous results, say University of Florida scientists on a research team reporting in the Oct. 28 edition of Science.
If global temperatures increase by only a few of degrees by 2100, as predicted by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, people around the world will be forced to migrate. But transplanting populations from one location to another is a complicated proposition that has left millions of people impoverished in recent years. The researchers say that a word of caution is in order and that governments should take care to understand the ramifications of forced migration.
A consortium of 12 scientists from around the world, including two UF researchers, gathered last year at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Bellagio Center to review 50 years of research related to population resettlement following natural disasters or the installation of infrastructure development projects such as dams and pipelines. The group determined that resettlement efforts in the past have left communities in ruin, and that policy makers need to use lessons from the past to protect people who are forced to relocate because of climate change.
“The effects of climate change are likely to be experienced by as many people as disasters,” UF anthropologist Anthony Oliver-Smith said. “More people than ever may be moving in response to intense storms, increased flooding and drought that makes living untenable in their current location.”
“Sometimes the problem is simply a lack of regard for the people ostensibly in the way of progress,” said Oliver-Smith, an emeritus professor who has researched issues surrounding forced migration for more than 30 years. But resettlements frequently fail because the complexity of the task is underestimated. “Transplanting a population and its culture from one location to another is a complex process — as complicated as brain surgery,” he said.
“It’s going to be a matter of planning ahead now,” said Burt Singer, a courtesy faculty member at the UF Emerging Pathogens Institute who worked with the research group. He too has studied issues related to population resettlement for decades.
Singer said that regulatory efforts promoted by the International Finance Corporation, the corporate lending arm of the World Bank, are helping to ensure the well-being of resettled communities in some cases. But as more people are relocated — especially very poor people with no resources — financing resettlement operations in the wake of a changing climate could become a real challenge.
Planning and paying for resettlement is only part of the challenge, Oliver-Smith said. “You need informed, capable decision makers to carry out these plans,” he said. A lack of training and information can derail the best-laid plans. He said the World Bank increasingly turns to anthropologists to help them evaluate projects and outcomes of resettlement.
“It is a moral imperative,” Oliver-Smith said. Also, a simple cost-benefit analysis shows that doing resettlement poorly adds to costs in the future. Wasted resources and the costs of malnutrition, declining health, infant and elder mortality, and the destruction of families and social networks should be included in the total cost of a failed resettlement, he said.
Oliver-Smith said the cautionary tales of past failures yield valuable lessons for future policy makers, namely because they point out many of the potential pitfalls than can beset resettlement projects. But they also underscore the fact that there is a heavy price paid by resettled people, even in the best-case scenarios.
In the coming years, he said, many projects such as hydroelectric dams and biofuel plantations will be proposed in the name of climate change, but moving people to accommodate these projects may not be the simple solution that policy makers sometimes assume.
A clear-eyed review of the true costs of forced migration could alert governments to the complexities and risks of resettlement.
“If brain surgeons had the sort of success rate that we have had with resettling populations, very few people would opt for brain surgery,” he said.
They should ask the Russians to do the job. After 1945, they proved to be quite skillful brain surgeons.
“I wonder if the World Bank would pay her rent this month?”
Nice idea Judy lol!
Mind the bit that worry’s me is given the useless morons that infect most legal systems, this idea of ‘Climate refugees ‘ will get picked up and you will never be able to deport anyone as all they have to do is get a model of a freelancing gia-ist like Hansen to prove their country will be under water , on fire and raked by famine volcanoes maybe even migrating kelp and you won’t be able to get rid of them ! well unless we can prove we are on fire and drowning that might work ???
My first reaction was jaw-dropping disbelief at the sheer magnitude of the “if, if, if'” by some date w-a-a-a-y in the future, then we’ve got a big messy problem and we have to act NOW. Target-rich for mockery, as many have discovered.
Then I decided, “Let’s go through it again carefully and look for the good, the positive, the hidden jewel.” So I did…
.
.
.
.
..
I got nuttin’.
The UK has seen mass immigration for years. It is predicted that the population here will soon exceed that of both France and Germany. I wonder what those migrants saw so attractive in this often cold and damp little island? It must have been our high percentage of brain surgeons.
Apart from migrations due to the onset of the next Ice Age, the only climate migrations will be be as a consequence of Green Policies.
“In the coming years, he said, many projects such as hydroelectric dams and biofuel plantations will be proposed in the name of climate change, but moving people to accommodate these projects may not be the simple solution that policy makers sometimes assume.”
This is already happening and all in the name of helping to save the planet from climate change.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/armed-troops-burn-down-homes-kill-children-to-evict-ugandans-in-name-of-global-warming.html
And HSBC is my bank which is helping to fund this horror, where a child was burned to death as climate thugs destroyed her village in order to plant a carbon offset forest scheme.
Is this what they mean by “Ethical Investments”
Otzi the Iceman was a brain surgeon, so this is no surprise.
Historically, a migration of people has required a war without exception.
14 million Bangkok residents may need emergency accommodation for about a year or so while flood damage to Bangkok is repaired.
Glad to see the WattsUpWithThat bloggers are ready to transplant 14 million Climate Refugees to Australia for 12 months.
Geoff C says: Seriously, this scenario could easily happen here in gullible Australia–
Some bureaucrat decides that a valid and positive test of refugee status is that a person is fleeing from unliveable conditions due to climate change.
(Geoff, Bangkok is likely to be unliveable for about a year (or longer))
and
Rick Bradford says:
I’m still waiting to greet the 50 million climate refugees the UN said would be created by 2010..
(Rick, 14 million Bangkok residents is a reasonably start. Glad to hear you have been waiting to greet them… How many can you billet at your house?)
Ulrich Elkmann says at 1:57 am “They should ask the Russians to do the job. After 1945,”
And let us not forget those other famous brain surgeons Pol Pot and Ho Chi Minh, both of whom presided over sophisticated mass “migrations.”
Colin says
“14 million Bangkok residents may need emergency accommodation for about a year or so while flood damage to Bangkok is repaired.
Glad to see the WattsUpWithThat bloggers are ready to transplant 14 million Climate Refugees to Australia for 12 months.”
Another one who does not know the difference between climate and weather. And another alarmist who has astounding abliities in hyperbolic exaggerations.
And I thought that all people with the name Colin were so intelligent!
Colin Porter
Judy F. says at 8:27 pm: “my daughter is a climate refugee tonight. She had to leave her home on the Front Range of Colorado”
Funny, yesterday a work colleague and now-refugee was migrating back to his home in Colorado, where his wife reported he’ll have to contend with 18 inches of climate change destruction. Fortunately he is certified in brain surgery so shoveling the driveway and removing some downed tree branches shouldn’t pose a great challenge.
Colin says:
October 28, 2011 at 4:02 am
I don’t know what you’re on about with Australia, but you seem to have some problem.
This flood isn’t the result of climate change, half of Thailand is a major flood plain, and gets flooded all the time. The increase in population and infrastructure has exasterbated the situation in recent years. Do you know anything of Thailand other than what you google up and see in the news about this flood? Ever been there? These disasters happen, and people like you always pop up and make fools of themselves.
As far as where refugees could go, there is a large part of Thailand that is not in floodplain, and would not be considered as unliveable.
Colin has an agenda… he sells ‘energy efficient’ devices. Gotta stick to the meme.
Bloke down the pub says:
October 28, 2011 at 2:36 am
Don’t you know it’s called Treasure Island?
I’d rather have a bottle in front of me than have a frontal lobotomy. What were these guys drinking?
Luther Wu says
“Colin has an agenda… he sells ‘energy efficient’ devices. Gotta stick to the meme.”
I noticed that also, though I would hardly call them ‘energy efficient’ as you point out. It looks as if the main business is in PV solar, which in England at least, attracts a feed in tarrif of 46p/kw or about 15 times the generation costs of natural gas, the whole of which extra cost is levied onto consumers.
If our useless Green obsessed government continues with their bankrupt policy of supporting such grossly inequitable schemes, I too will become a climate refugee as I wiil not be able to pay the costs of ever increasing fuel costs during ever harsher winters. I will be forced to emigrate to Australia (sorry Geoff C) to live with my daughter. Yes I know that Gillard is more loony than Cameron, but heating costs are a much smaller proportion of the household budget in Australia.
So Colin the PV salesman, how about that for turning an argument on its head. I now add PV Solar to the reasons for being a climate refugee. Shame on you! Go and get a proper job in a power station, or working down a pit or fracking gas deposits, before coming here to moralise.
Colin (not the PV Salesman) Porter
Notes from cranial surgery on one of the twelve “scientists”: Brain surgery indicated, Anesthetized patient. Opened cranium with crosscut saw. Attempted to access brain but same could not be located..
In the mid-400’s the Rhine froze over just prior to Christmas and the Barbarians crossed. They started the decline of the Roman Empire, thus started the dark ages. It was cold that allowed the crossing and it was the hungar caused by cold that drove them to move. Climate change can cause migration but not the way these people think. By the way who would have thought that the Barbarians were the equal of modern day brain surgeons.
I remember a few years back guitarist Eddie Van Halen was quoted as saying “Playing guitar is not like brain surgery.” Implying, of course, that playing guitar is easier. Then I read a retort from some brain surgeon in Boston, who also played guitar. He said playing guitar was way more difficult than brain surgery. In brain surgery you simply stick to established procedures; no improvisation.
So I offer that climate refugees migrating will be as difficult for governments as playing “Running with the Devil”
(I used to have the 8-track.)
u.k.(us) says:
October 27, 2011 at 8:42 pm
Planning and paying for resettlement is only part of the challenge, Oliver-Smith said. “You need informed, capable decision makers to carry out these plans,” he said.
======
Sounds like the military to me.”
____________________________________________
Actually it sounds like FEMA and we all know what an absolute muck-up they made of Katrina.
It is very very simple a bureaucrat’s main goal in life is covering his butt. The more bureaucrats and the more area covered the worse the muck-up. We should have learned the lesson from the United Nations/European Union Handling of the UK’s 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease insanity (I recommend reading it as a preview of what a one world government will be like for the little guy.)
During Katrina, the goal of FEMA was not to rescue people, but to control them. Their directive was to relocate families and businesses, confiscate property, commandeer goods, direct labor and services, and establish martial law. This is what they did. The goal was never to carry out an effective rescue operation it was to protect the government from chaos and establish martial law. THAT is what governments (and bureaucracies) always do, they protect themselves first last and always.
As can be seen the help was there during Katrina but FEMA PREVENTED the help and helpers from reaching those in need because their pirority was CONTROL not RESCUE. It was also why the US government rejected the offer of four dutch ships with oil skimmers after the Deepwater Horizon Gulf oil spill.
KATRINA EXAMPLES:
BERLIN — A German military plane carrying 15 tons of military rations for survivors of Hurricane Katrina was sent back by U.S. authorities, officials said Saturday.
Doctor Says FEMA Ordered Him To Stop Treating Hurricane Victims
…crews for three U.S. Customs Blackhawk helicopters stationed at Crestview Airport in Florida are “livid” because they have not been directed to provide full-time support for the ongoing hurricane-relief
Emergency crews turned back by FEMA: They lacked “the required paperwork”
Homeland Security won’t let Red Cross deliver food
Navy Pilots Who Rescued Victims Are Reprimanded
FEMA orders Firefighters assembled from all over the USA to hand out propaganda instead of deploying them as emergency workers.
Mayor Richard Daley ‘shocked’ at federal snub of offers to help.
FEMA: First Responders Urged Not To Respond To Hurricane Impact Areas Unless Dispatched By Authorities
And the list goes on and on.
Yes it really DOES takes brain surgery for this type of muck-up, first they must remove your brain before you are qualified to be a bureaucrat!
Everywhere on Earth,(the land part, that is.)except Antarctica, has been spontaneously inhabited by humans. People move in and adapt. Generally they do not move out.
I think Sam Kineson (sp?) said it best, if you want to help the starving people, don’t just send them food, send them u-hauls, help them get out of the desert. Once you get them out, then you worry about assimilation. Kind of like our migratory ancestors. They couldn’t care about a culture fit because they were too busy not starving! /rant
Mass migration is happening now from the third world to the first and it is not complicated. All that is needed is for government to ignore immigration laws that were passed in the interest of its citizens, pass laws limiting the free expression of its citizens and a flow of tax dollars and to make the migration successful.
This reads like a plan for a world dictatorship to exercise total control over people by moving them to places most beneficial to their needs and the word forced indicates the tactic to be used, much like a farmer or rancher would move his livestock from one grazing pasture to another. And the justification is based on a highly promoted fraud.
The mentality in the idea that it is desirable and needed to move people and cultures at the will of governments is reducing humans to the level of livestock and or at least slaves.
Geoff C says:
October 27, 2011 at 8:51 pm
Seriously, this scenario could easily happen here in gullible Australia–
_____________________________
ERRRRRrrrrr, US farmers thought you Aussies DID have “weather refugees” (Yeah, we do talk to each other.)
Animal ID in Australia: expensive chaos
“John Carter of Australia recently told a group of independent U.S. cattlemen that there are a myriad of problems with the Aussie’s National Livestock Identification System…
The result is “expensive chaos,” Carter said.
…… His personal herd records on the national system is full of errors. For instance, cattle are listed as dead that are alive.
The radio frequency tags can be easily cut out and substituted, he said. After severe floods in Queensland, police and owners relied on firebrands to identify thousands of stock that drifted to other ranches….
“NLIS couldn’t track a bleeding elephant through a snowfield,” he said. “ http://www.northplattebulletin.com/index.asp?show=news&action=readStory&storyID=14144&pageID=29
A note found on a blog:
“….As Queensland, Australian ranchers are working day and night to save their cattle from the worst flood disaster in dozens of years the government enforcers quickly publish rules of how to handle cattle with electronic ear pins. Never before have ranchers been forced to not only ride and swim high water, but carry an electronic scanner for NLIS compliance.
One recommendation by NLIS principal officer, Michael Lancaster is to identify “untagged” cattle by brands. Surely the ranchers will appreciate that clever recommendation to continue with a process they have used since the first cattle landed in Australia. No batteries needed for reading a brand — how convenient?
Queensland ranchers work at an exhausting pace yet government enforcers caution them of the exact methods of returning and reporting cattle with or without electronic devices. As highly paid government employees answer the phones and develop protocol from high and dry office buildings a safe distance from the fray, the ranchers work-on day and night. Never has a weather problem of this nature been compounded by extra NLIS rules and potential fines up to $17,000 for non compliance. Compliance or not, the good thing is that the enforcers will not be getting in the water and mud to slow down the rescue efforts. Say a kind word of prayer for the Australian ranchers, and also, that the enforcers will let them care for their cattle without fines and burdensome additional flood ID legislation…..” http://nonais.org/2011/01/01/bulletin-board-201101/
Another example of expensive bureaucratic bumbling at its finest!
(If you think I hate idiotic bureaucrats you might just be correct)
During the Medieval Warm Period, the Vikings flourished and became the scourge of Europe. The French region of Normandy is named for the Scandinavian invaders who came, saw, conquered and stayed.
Viking colonies were also established in Greenland, and lasted until the Little Ice Age suddenly struck. The climate helped to remove the Viking scourge from northern and western Europe, and allowed the Renaissance to spread into those areas.
Interestingly enough, this was the exact opposite of what is predicted for the 21st century if</b< it warms a fee degrees. Instead of refugees fleeing from the warm areas, the warm areas were overrun by then thriving barbarians from the north.
Oh wait, never mind! The hockey stick tells us that never happened!