Sun-watchers hope giant telescope will get green light
Observatory would reveal structures that trigger sunspots and space weather.
Close and bright though it is, the Sun still defies a thorough understanding. One reason is that some of the features on its roiling surface are too small and short-lived to be studied even by the world’s largest solar telescopes.
That will change if the US National Solar Observatory (NSO) proceeds with its latest project — the Advanced Technology Solar Telescope (ATST), a Sun-gazing behemoth due to be built on the summit of Haleakala, the highest peak on the Hawaiian island of Maui. This month, an officially appointed arbiter will weigh the scientists’ goals against objections raised by conservationists and Native Hawaiian groups to decide whether the US$298-million project can break ground later this year.
With more than twice the aperture of existing solar telescopes (see ‘Eyes on the Sun’), the 4-metre ATST will be large enough to tease out small structures on the Sun, particularly magnetic flux tubes — the hitherto unseen precursors to sunspots. Sunspots, in turn, give rise to giant coronal loops and flares, which can unleash bursts of radiation and cause magnetic disturbances that sometimes threaten spacecraft, communication networks and power grids.
More at Nature News, h/t to Leif Svalgaard
More on ATST here.
Siting rationale:
….got it – Maui Wowie, white sand beaches etc. Nice gig for an astronomer if you can get it!
I hope the objections raised by conservationists and Native Hawaiian groups will go away.
Thanks Leif,
Sounds productive, It will be interesting to see what happends to curve fitters when the observations get corrected
vuk
” So no attempt is made or claimed that SSN will have an accurate value at any time, and no other SSN values are considered beyond non smoothed SC max approximation .”
so no falsifiable claim. Ok, just curves on the page. nice.
steven mosher says:
October 13, 2011 at 9:26 pm
It will be interesting to see what happends to curve fitters when the observations get corrected
They will adjust their fits and claim even better agreement 🙂
steven mosher says:
October 13, 2011 at 9:29 pm
Ok, just curves on the page.
Mr. Mosher
Those are not just curves on the page,
The equation is statement of two astronomic facts. The equation could have been written by any astronomer since Ptolemy, or even earlier (since the ancient Greek and Hellenistic mathematicians used the geometric chord) and it would still show exactly the same curve on the page, the equation is timeless.
For a man of science you do show some surprising lack of intuition, since your statement shows an obvious knowledge deficiency in the field .
Hi doc
Looked at the links.
It is reminiscent of The First Council of Nicaea of Christian bishops convened in Nicaea by the Roman Emperor Constantine.
Leif Svalgaard says:
October 13, 2011 at 6:36 pm
For the gazillionth time: Hathaway does not issue predictions based on theory or such…..
Oah poor Dr. Hathaway, you got to feel sorry for him.
In 2006 he said: “Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago”
”We don’t know why this works. The underlying physics is a mystery. But it does work.”
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/21dec_cycle24/
Now has a good scientific explanation for his misfortune:
“The other geomagnetic precursor (he having in mind one ‘don’t know why this works’)
method appear to be unduly impacted by the Halloween of 2003 and gave larger cycles.”
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/papers/hathadh/2010HathawayB.pdf
M.A.Vukcevic says:
October 14, 2011 at 1:20 am
Dr. Hathaway, you got to feel sorry for him.
Back in 2006 that was a true prediction. The current ‘forecasts’ are not, they are simply fits to the current data. Know the difference.
Ref -M.A.Vukcevic says:
October 14, 2011 at 1:20 am
“Let s/he who is without sin cast the first stone”
“Never trust a person who is perfect”
“Everyone makes educated guesses”
“The world is but a stage”
“Let sleeping dogs lie”
Leif Svalgaard says:
October 13, 2011 at 10:02 pm
steven mosher says:
October 13, 2011 at 9:26 pm
It will be interesting to see what happends to curve fitters when the observations get corrected
They will adjust their fits and claim even better agreement 🙂
No correction planed to the Wilcox Solar observatory’s measurement results as far as I know, perhaps Dr. Svalgaard knows differently.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm
You know, up until Copenhagen in 2009, $298 million sounded like alot of money to me. But the Copenhagen Treaty wanted 1% of GDP every year. That’s $150 billion, EVERY YEAR.
Now when I hear numbers like $298 million, that’s chicken feed.
M.A.Vukcevic says:
October 14, 2011 at 4:01 am
We, commoners, need to know an extrapolation of your curve (as it has proved, until now, being precise), because it shows an almost “dying Sun”, presumably at the “ER”. 🙂
M.A.Vukcevic says:
October 14, 2011 at 4:01 am
No correction planned to the Wilcox Solar observatory’s measurement results as far as I know, perhaps Dr. Svalgaard knows differently.
Indeed he does. The Wilcox data is contaminated by scattered light in the early years. We’ll eventually correct the record. http://www.leif.org/research/Reduction%20of%20Spatially%20Resolved%20Magnetic%20Field%20by%20Scattered%20Light.pdf
Leif Svalgaard says:
October 14, 2011 at 3:31 am
Back in 2006 that was a true prediction. The current ‘forecasts’ are not, they are simply fits to the current data. Know the difference.
Hi doc
The answer to what it is, Dr. Hathaway is very explicit:
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif
have you looked at it, it says in plain English:
Cycle 24 Sunspot Number Prediction (October 2011)
Enneagram says:
October 14, 2011 at 6:00 am
…..
It is on the way up in about 30 years time, some time in 2040s.
Leif Svalgaard says:
October 14, 2011 at 6:36 am
The Wilcox data is contaminated by scattered light in the early years.
http://www.leif.org/research/AGU%20Fall%202008%20SH51A-1593.pdf
M.A.Vukcevic says:
October 14, 2011 at 6:47 am
The answer to what it is, Dr. Hathaway is very explicit:
That may be. However, you are not listening. I’m telling you that Hathaway simply fits the current data to a standard solar cycle curve, so is not predicting in any real sense from any theory or causes. He may not care about the difference between this and a true prediction, but we do, don’t we. What he does [like you] is just curve fitting.
As per Hathaway: ” We then use the shape of the sunspot cycle as described by Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann [Solar Physics 151, 177 (1994)] and determine a starting time for the cycle by fitting the data to produce a prediction of the monthly sunspot numbers through the next cycle.”
Of course I am listening, I find Dr. H’s turn of phrase amusing, but let’s leave him to do his job as best as he can.
I find your paper
http://www.leif.org/research/Reduction%20of%20Spatially%20Resolved%20Magnetic%20Field%20by%20Scattered%20Light.pdf
of some interest, had a quick look and from my point of view it is a useful development. Once there is a consensus about accuracy of the past measurements, than it will be possible to be a bit more certain about the build up of the magnetic field in the polar region: a random accumulation or some yet unknown process.
Leif Svalgaard says:
October 13, 2011 at 12:17 pm
It is not possible to place a 4 meter telescope in space, so we need one on the ground.
No, it is just insanely expensive:
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), previously known as Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) is a planned next-generation space telescope, optimized for observations in the infrared. The main technical features are a large and very cold 6.5 meter diameter mirror. The latest estimated price tag for the telescope is now $6.8 billion.
Leif Svalgaard says:
October 13, 2011 at 12:17 pm
It is not possible to place a 4 meter telescope in space, so we need one on the ground.
Not possible? No, it is just insanely expensive:
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), previously known as Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) is a planned next-generation space telescope, optimized for observations in the infrared. The main technical features are a large and very cold 6.5 meter diameter mirror. The latest estimated price tag for the telescope is now $6.8 billion.
Tony Mach says:
October 14, 2011 at 8:53 pm
No, it is just insanely expensive:
The requirements are quite different. A solar telescope collects a LOT of energy (concentrated at the focal plane) which has to be actively got rid off lest the optics melts. This is hard to do in space. The issue was if we could do this for beginning operation in a few years and we just can’t.
Leif Svalgaard says:
October 14, 2011 at 9:31 pm
This is hard to do in space. The issue was if we could do this for beginning operation in a few years and we just can’t.
Let’s say it is hard to do and currently financially not possible to put such a large solar observatory in space (and it would be rather stupid to do this research in space when you can do them on earth), but it would be physically possible. I just took issue with “not possible” statement.