Global Warming alarmists have long claimed that snowfall would soon be a thing of the past in the Swiss Alps, that the glaciers would melt, tourists would leave, and the ski industry would die. There CERTAINLY would not be any snowfall at lower altitudes, or any snowfall even before the official start of autumn. Yet today there fell snow as low as 1200 meters, with heavy falls in St. Moritz, a very early time for a blizzard in the alps.
As reported by NZZ Online:
Translation to English:
Earlier onset of winter in the Alps
Several disabled passes
With the first snow in the mountains in the middle of the winter moved in September. In Graubünden the snow line was at 1,200 meters. In some places the snow piled up to half a meter high. Yet the soil is warm, the white splendor should melt quickly.
(Sda) On Sunday, a cold front moved from west of the Jura and the Bernese Oberland Grisons in the Alps. In the high alpine regions, there was up to half a meter of fresh snow. In parts of the Grisons, the snow line was at 1,200 meters above sea level or even lower. In the Midlands at the weekend when temperatures dropped some heavy rain and thunderstorms to just over 10 degrees. In Valais, the temperatures were on Saturday still climbed to 28 degrees.
In the snow caused traffic in the Alpine passes of disability. According to the traffic information service Viasuisse since Sunday afternoon, the Furka Pass and Klaus are locked. Snow covered are the Gotthard and the Nufenenpass. The entrance to the San Bernardino tunnel is more difficult.
The Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF) in Davos warns climbers, hunters and hikers in the face of the snowfall to be cautious in steep terrain. Below 3000 meters the snow could slide off on the warm ground. Climbers could also bring fresh-driven snow fields to slip.
Note: There have been no Al Gore sightings in the region recently…
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@dale jennings
If you don’t like the weather – wait 5 minutes!
John Marshall says on September 20, 2011 at 2:37 am
Even the UK Met. Office predict a colder than ‘normal’ winter.
===============================================
Phew.
Thank God for that!
Now I don’t need to buy arctic survival clothes to see me through the coming winter.
😉
For blog poster (mikelorrey): please provide an answer for D Marshall, DGH and myself.
Anthony: this is a diversion at best. Snow can (and does) fall any month of the year in Switzerland’s mountains, which is likely true for most temperate mountains at altitudes above 2000 m). Trying to draw climatic conclusions about weather events is childish.
For anyone truly interested in snow research in Switzerland, please see the following link: http://www.slf.ch
Select R&D, then Schnee, then Schnee und Klimawandel (sorry, only in German)
Some summary statements are roughly translated here:
• Annual snow cover varies greatly from year to year as well as region to region (within Switzerland).
• Clear conclusions regarding climate and snow cover are thus difficult to make.
• Winters in the 80s showed a tendency for increased snow levels.
• Winters for the 90s showed snow levels at a minimum.
• Winters for the 1st decade of the 21st century have shown a recovery, though levels are still lower than average.
• The trend toward winters with weak snow coverage at altitudes below 1300 m is statistically significant.
• Above 2000 m, there is no evidence of a climate-driven reduction in snow levels.
• The reduction at altitudes below 1300 m is not due to reduced precipitation, but to increased winter temperatures.
• An analysis of seasonal differences shows a weak trend toward poor snow coverage in early winter at medium altitudes and evidence of increases spring snow melt at high altitudes.
Kurt in Switzerland
Re: Bushbunny on September 20th, 2011, at 2:34 am (above)
Bushbunny,
Climate is what you had.
Weather is what you got.
Tree rings, clam shells and ice layers, when jacked into
tailor made computer programs, are the modern equivalents
of phrenology.
Whatever you’ve been getting expect to get even more of it.
Sure, that’s a different way of saying it. But spring is spring, summer is summer, autumn or fall is that and winter is winter. That’s climate. Weather is what happens during these seasonal periods
and they can vary week to week, day to day. There are variations within this. Anyway good night folks, I have a presentation tomorrow, regarding organic cultivations and Alpacas the chosen animal for this exercise. Not that I have ever owned one. I like them though.
So which of the climate models predicted this?
“Global Warming alarmists have long claimed that snowfall would soon be a thing of the past in the Swiss Alps”
What, from the following, led you to this conclusion?
“Conclusions
This paper has made a survey of snow statistics in the Swiss Alps over the last 50
years for a limited number of representative sites, with an additional focus on 12
climatological stations for the anomalously cold and warm 15-year period from
1980–1994.
The study has confirmed other findings that snow in the Alps is highly variable
from year to year, but that there are some long-term cycles which appear to be
governed by shifts in large-scale forcings. These are represented by the North
Atlantic Oscillation index, whose influence extends to the Alps when the index
is positive and high; the pressure signal from the NAO index is amplified in
the Alpine region. Over the last 15 years, which saw a number of cold winters
accompanied by significant amounts of snow, followed since the second half of
the 1980s by some very mild winters with little snow, the dominant feature has
been the variations of the regional-scale pressure field. The anomalously warm
winters have resulted from the presence of very persistent high pressure episodes
which have occured essentially during periods from late Fall to early Spring. The
timing of the inception and subsequent persistence of high pressure episodes, and
their frequency of occurence during a particular Winter will therefore determine
the amount of snowfall and accumulation throughout the season. Persistent highs
in late Fall and recurrence in Winter will lead to low accumulation in the crucial
periods at the beginning of the season, and early melting because the snow-pack
does not reach depths sufficient to ‘survive’ the first warm periods in early Spring.
The study has shown that this is particularly true for low to medium elevation sites
in the Alps; above the altitudinal range 1500–2000 m, the snowpack is much less
sensitive to the shifts in large-scale forcings, because snow will likely accumulate
[66]VARIATIONS OF SNOW DEPTH AND DURATION IN THE SWISS ALPS 299
at these altitudes whenever there is precipitation, and even anomalous temperatures
induced by high-pressure subsidence are unlikely to be sufficient to initiate melting.
In the context of the issues related to climatic change forced by enhanced
greenhouse-gas concentrations, the anomalously warm winters experienced in
recent years can serve as a benchmark for the likely response of snow, and associated systems such as hydrology and glaciers, to a generally warmer world. The
sensitivity of snow to large-scale forcings below about 2000 m is a clear indication
that there will likely be less snow, and that the snow season will be shorter. This is in
line with a number of other studies carried out by different groups and summarized
by the IPCC Second Assessment Report on the impacts of climate change (IPCC,
1995); however, the present study has provided more than speculative evidence
about which levels will be most vulnerable to climate change. The conclusions presented here can provide guidance to future environmental and economic planning
in the Alps, particularly for activities related to Winter tourism.
Snow in the Alps in Summer is not unusual (neither in Fall).
And the current snow will be gone by Friday with the 3rd day in a row with Tmax > 60°F.
So what?!?
There is a problem with all this. The global warming crowd do not live up at 1,200 meters. They live inside university offices where the only weather or climate they get is from reading simulation data on their computers. Someone needs to go drag them out of their cozy virtual reality simulator environs and get them to do real on the scene research, real analytical science, and real useful work! Until then, we are only arguing with doped up data dealers (DUDDs), and therefore this nonsense will continue on.
That’s the problem with science today… to many DUDDs!
We do forecast another cold Europe winter although the fall season shall be rather mild.
http://weatheredge.blogspot.com/2011/09/europe-winter-outlook-2011-12.html
The US winter outlook soon on our blog (hint: cold North-NW, warm SE)
FYI – from NWS Anchorage:
THE ICE EDGE LIES FROM EAST OF 74.1N 120W TO 73.8N 125.3W TO 70N
127.0W TO 70N 133W TO 70.8N 139.2W TO 72.0N 145.5W TO 74.5N 159.0W
TO 74.0N 176.5W TO 72.4N 176.5E TO 70.1N 165E AND CONTINUES WEST. THE
EDGE IS MAINLY 1 TO 6 TENTHS NEW…YOUNG AND OLD ICE.
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY…ICE CONCENTRATION AND THICKNESS WILL
INCREASE SOME AS AIR TEMPERATURES STAY RATHER SEASONABLE NORTHEAST
WINDS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL ADVANCE THE ICE EDGE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST UP TO 15 NM BY SATURDAY.
“Further, doesn’t anyone else find it ironic that WUWT taunts the warmists for their inability to distinguish climate from weather by confusing climate and weather?”
As someone else said, the joke has gone right over your head. After years of listening to AGW alarmists proclaim every heat-related anomalous weather event as a sign of global warming (Katrina, this is just the first of many – NOT!/this heat wave is evidence of global warming – NOT!) ad nauseum, while simultaneously dismissing any cold-related anomaly as “just weather”, those of us skeptically inclined couldn’t help noticing the double standard. So now we have a little fun with them and apply their “standard” to our interpretation of events. Any snowstorm is now climate, not weather, if we follow their lead. You just apparently missed the tongue firmly planted in cheek while we’re doing it. (Notice also we’re not the ones who keep having to change our expectations of what global warming will “cause” when the weather changes from day to day and year to year. It causes warm, no it causes cold, it causes less snow, no it causes more snow. Isn’t it obvious?)
D Marshall says:
I can’t vouch for the accuracy of that prediction but one season’s freak snowstorm isn’t likely to derail an event so far in the future.
Nothing can disprove a prediction so far in the future. That’s the whole point. The prediction is vague and untestable, and many people alive today, including those making the prediction, won’t live to see how it turns out. But they want us to change policies now and make cuts now anyway.
That said, some of the bolder predictions made by some of the bolde climate prophets about 10, that snow will be unheard of soon etc., are now refuted. Somehow that didn’t make them think again.
Snow in the Alps in mid-summer is not unusual, so this Swiss snowfall certainly isn’t. This year there was snow on the Col du Galibier a couple of days before the Tour de France passed through.
Tegiri Nenashi says
This complies with GW predictions: as gulfstream ceases to exist, winters in Europe become colder.
The gulf stream is alive and well.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/fields/FS_km5000.gif
All that light blue water drifting round Scotland and Norway, further north than anywhere else on earth ..
So this was an attempt at humor by mikelorrey? I clearly missed the joke, much as I idid over James Taylor’s tongue-in-cheek Forbes column about Spencer’s humorous paper in a joke journal
[REPLY: Do you have anything to contribute here or is your repetoire limited to drive-by sneers? REP, mod]
To the detractors: Firstly, I forgot to include the gratuitous “from the weather is not climate department” at the beginning, to make sure those incapable of comprehending irony and sarcasm got the hint. Secondly, as others have mentioned, we are so used to seeing alarmists spaz about hot weather and tropical storms being signs of AGW, as bad as the most chiliastic mellenialist doomsayer, while simultaneously dismissing any cold weather as “just weather, not climate”. The double standard evident to all sane and reasonable people has become a running joke much like the Gore Effect, which discredits climatology and climatologists as being not objective and skeptical scientists, but self interested agenda driven ideologues intent on manipulating science and the public for a political agenda. As for my links, it is not so much that the linked papers themselves actually state what is referred to them, but that the mainstream biased media has flogged these papers as science writers claimed they were “more proof of ‘scientific consensus'” about global warming.
The fact is, that this snow was as low as 1200 meters, which is pretty low altitude in Switzerland, and it is still summer. This was not an autumn cold snap, but a significant snowfall of up to a half meter in urban locations (as seen by the covered cars) that SHOULD exhibit a significant urban heat island effect which would normally cause snowlines to be higher in altitude. If there was no UHI in the region, how low do you think the snow would have fallen?
Granted, the ground is not frozen, so the snow will likely melt, but it will sap heat from the ground as it does, which will lead to early frosts and crop damage at even lower altitudes before harvest time, but the ground will freeze sooner now, and the next snowfall will remain on the ground unless there are significant fall rains after that. Who knows? This is the beginning of the winter season weather wise, neither I nor you can predict what will happen next with significant accuracy, but lets all sit back and watch, and we can criticize each other for the others mistakes later this winter eh?
@REP, mod Please read further up the thread to see what I’ve contributed. Also, kindly enlighten me as to your process in determining what constitutes a “drive-by sneer” as I believe I can helpfully point out several you may have overlooked in many other threads.
D Marshall
Your first comments at the start of the thread were much more useful than your post that REP commented on. Having said that I wouldn’t classify your latter post as a drive by sneer but you will appreciate there ARE a lot of those here and the mods must find it difficult to differentiate between them sometimes. Its a thankless job trying to keep some sort of order and civility
.
tonyb
@tonyb I do appreciate that, but I also expect a “moderator” to be evenhanded. There’s also more than a touch of irony in having my post pounced on after the other posts stating that some of us didn’t get the joke.
Since I’m not a mind-reader, I’ll simply have to speculate as to whether a barb directed at the favorite whipping-boys would have merited the same response as a jab at some sacred cows.
I must admit to feeling a certain amusement. Do the German speaking Swiss have a word for Schadenfreude ?
“I must admit to feeling a certain amusement. Do the German speaking Swiss have a word for Schadenfreude ?”
🙂 Well, yes…Schadenfreude. It’s a German word to begin with.
“As for my links, it is not so much that the linked papers themselves actually state what is referred to them, but that the mainstream biased media has flogged these papers as science writers claimed they were “more proof of ‘scientific consensus’” about global warming.
So you misrepresented the science because you’re unhappy that the sections of the media report the fact that the vast majority of the published literature supports the AGW theory. What kind of logic is that?
Ed Mertin says:
September 19, 2011 at 9:30 pm
Joe Bastardi said this winter won’t be quite as bad and with my travel experience over the years, my thinkolator is in agreement with that. The La Niña story could take another turn soon.
========
Hi Ed,
As I remember Joe’s last forecast back in Feb.-March, he predicted we would roll back into a La Nina this year (which we have) and that this and possibly the next several winters would be worse than the one we got last year.
It was quite a prediction.
@ur momisugly Richard,
A post about a single day of cold weather, warrants a comment that on that day we had unseasonly high temps.
Buller only has patchy snow left, with only Hotham and Falls Creek with any solid depth (10-20cm). Though that’s normal for the end of the snow season (this weekend, 25th I believe). Overall we’ve had a pretty average winter, which started great early, but went through pretty normal.
I disagree with BOM’s prediction for summer though. They predict storms, extreme high temps and major bushfires for summer, but I think we’ll see another mild summer like the last one dominated by high rainfall, mild temps and no major bushfires. Thanks La Nina.