by Indur M. Goklany
Much to my surprise, I heard from NHC’s Dr. Eric Blake today on the fatalities data for hurricanes. I was sure he would take a break to catch his breath after Irene (and before Katia), and since I’m sure the NHC gets no respite during hurricane season. Regardless, I really want to thank him for his prompt response.
He confirmed that the discrepancy between the fatality numbers for 2005 from the 2007 and 2011 versions of the NHC fatalities data is due to a reevaluation of the older data. [I had feared it might be due to a typo.]
Based on this information, I have revised the earlier figure that Anthony published on WUWT. The updated figure follows.
Figure 1: U.S. hurricane deaths and death rates per year, 1900–2010. Death rates are estimated per 100 million population. Sources: Updated from Goklany (2009), using USBC (2011) and Blake et al. (2011).
References
Blake ES, Rappaport EN, Landsea CW. 2007. The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes from 1851 to 2006 (and other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts), Apr 15, 2007. Available at www.nhc.noaa.gov/Deadliest_Costliest.shtml. Accessed Sep 26, 2009.
Blake ES, Landsea CW, Gibney, E.J. 2011. The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Hurricanes from 1851 to 2010 (and other Frequently Requested Hurricane Facts), August, 2011. Available at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/nws-nhc-6.pdf. Accessed 22 August, 2011.
Goklany, IM. 2009. Deaths and Death Rates from Extreme Weather Events: 1900-2008. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 14: 102-09.
U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2011. Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2011, visited 14 August 2011.
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An interesting chart . . . .
http://thesocietypages.org/socimages/files/2011/08/chartdamages.jpg
Linear regressions to produce ‘trend lines’ are simple and easy – pocket calculators could do it in the 70’s.
Judiciously chosen regressions are marvelous tools for making interpolations – guesses at numbers that fall *within* the range of the data.
They are useless for extrapolations, as I tried frequently to persuade the engineer-types in my classes, and as this chart demonstrates.
The world is not linear.
tadchem and others — thanks for your comments. The linear trend line is merely to show that it is not increasing over time (as it should have if warming is the major determinant of casualties). I don’t use it to model future deaths or death rates. As someone with training in engineering and physics, I am generally leery of extrapolating.
“John says:
September 1, 2011 at 7:11 am”
And those such as Flannery forecasting permanent drought won’t be held accountable.