Four Possibilities for the Next Atlantic Tropical Storm

TRMM Satellite Sees Four Possibilities for the Next Atlantic Tropical Storm

GOES image from August 12, 2011 at 1445 UTC (10:45 a.m. EDT) shows four low pressure systems: 92L, 93L, 94L and 95L
This GOES-13 satellite image from August 12, 2011 at 1445 UTC (10:45 a.m. EDT) shows the four low pressure systems: Systems 92L, 93L, 94L and 95L that have potential to develop into a tropical depression over the weekend. System 95L is closest to the U.S. followed by System 94L, 92L and 93L. Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project - click to enlarge

On Friday, August 12th, there were no named tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now monitoring four areas in the Atlantic Ocean that have potential for developing into tropical cyclones and the TRMM satellite captured a look at their rainfall at various times in the past few days.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite is managed by NASA and the Japanese Space Agency, and can provide data on rainfall rates occurring in a tropical cyclone as well as estimate rainfall totals. On August 12, TRMM captured rainfall rates in each of the tropical candidates as the satellite flew over each one individually.

An area of disturbed weather (92L shown on the upper left) was seen by the TRMM satellite on 12 August 2011 at 0353 UTC. On August 12, System 92L was located near 17.8 North and 45.3 West, about 1000 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. It is moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph. It has recently shown better organization, but there are no signs of a surface circulation. However, because the environmental conditions will allow for development (light wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, System 92L has been given a 50% probability of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

On August 11, 2011 at 0319 UTC, the TRMM satellite had a good view of an area of disturbed weather called System 93L. On August 12, System 93L was located 450 miles southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, near 11.3 North and 30.3 West. TRMM’s Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) showed that this area, which has since moved to the southwest of the Verde Islands, contained lines of heavy rainfall. The NHC also gave this area a medium chance (40%) of developing into a tropical cyclone.

Another area low potential (20%) for tropical cyclone development called System 94L, was located 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands near 24.7 North and 54.7 West. System 94L was seen by the TRMM satellite on August 12, 2011 at 0350 UTC. The NHC noted that this “Slow development is possible during the next couple of days as the low moves west-southwestward or westward at about 10 mph.”

The NHC also gave another area, called System 95L, has a high (60%) chance at developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. System 95L was located 200 miles north of Bermuda near 34.8 North and 66.8 West. The TRMM satellite flew almost directly over this low pressure system early on August 12, 2011 at 0208 UTC when it was weak. By 2 p.m. EDT, the thunderstorm activity associated with it had become well-defined. The development of System 95L may be high, but it comes with a caveat. That is, it has a high chance to develop tonight (Aug. 12) or on August 13, but only before it merges with a cold front. If it does become a depression, it would be Tropical Depression 6 in the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season.

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite called GOES-13 captured an image of all four low pressure systems: Systems 92L, 93L, 94L and 95L, on August 12, 2011 at 1445 UTC (10:45 a.m. EDT). Any one of these low pressure areas have the potential to develop into a tropical depression over the weekend. System 95L is closest to the U.S. followed by System 94L, 92L and 93L.

Text Credit: Hal Pierce/Rob Gutro, SSAI/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.


TRMM saw rainfall in System 92L on August 12, 2011 at 0353 UTC. › View larger image

TRMM saw rainfall in System 92L on August 12, 2011 at 0353 UTC. System 92L was about 1000 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. One small area of heavy rainfall (red) (2 inches/50 mm per hour) was seen on the northwestern side. Yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches (20 to 40 mm) per hour.

Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce


TRMM noticed several areas of heavy rainfall (red), falling at about 2 inches (50 mm) per hour in System 93L. › View larger image

TRMM noticed several areas of heavy rainfall (red), falling at about 2 inches (50 mm) per hour in System 93L. Yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches (20 to 40 mm) per hour.

Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce


System 94L, had moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches (20 to 40 mm) per hour (yellow and green areas). › View larger image

System 94L, which has a 20% chance of development on August 12, had moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches (20 to 40 mm) per hour (Yellow and green areas).

Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce


System 95L has a high (60%) chance at developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. › View larger image

System 95L has a high (60%) chance at developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. System 95L was located 200 miles north of Bermuda. Yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches (20 to 40 mm) per hour. There were no areas of heavy rainfall (red) when TRMM captured this image very early on August, 12, 2011.

Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

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noaaprogrammer
August 12, 2011 10:11 pm

Looks like they’re headed for the Carolinas.

Brian H
August 12, 2011 10:24 pm

H2O on the move!
But where are the CO2 storms?

Brian H
August 12, 2011 10:29 pm

So far, btw, zero Atlantic hurricanes.

Leon Brozyna
August 12, 2011 10:54 pm

95L – already made it to TD6 – maybe they’ll call it Franklin tomorrow
94L – odds now at 30%
92L – odds now at 30%
93L – odds now at 20%
That’s the status as of 0200 EDT (0600 GMT)

Editor
August 12, 2011 11:03 pm

95L: If it does become a depression, it would be Tropical Depression 6 in the Atlantic Ocean hurricane season.

Done, TD #6 was announced in the 1700 EDT discussion at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/al06/al062011.discus.001.shtml?
The forecast is for tropical storm force winds, but only briefly as it will merge with
a new cold front soon and be forced back to an extra-tropical storm.

John F. Hultquist
August 12, 2011 11:41 pm

The first two appear to be headed on a gentle curve to the right into the North Atlantic Ocean. The next two will likely follow but being a week away things could change — watch for movements of the pressure and winds in the continental USA.

Dave A
August 13, 2011 2:14 am

A useful link to the ever increasing number and intensity of Atlantic Hurricanes which are going to happen as only slightly more than 999,607 parts per million of the atmosphere these days are not CO2 😉
http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2010/hurricane-climatology.gif
Updates daily when it’s not the weekend

Leon Brozyna
August 13, 2011 3:43 am

It’s official … after twelve hours as Tropical Depression 6, it’s now Tropical Storm Franklin. Catch it before it disappears and becomes post-tropical.

Wade
August 13, 2011 4:26 am

It is official, we have a Franklin. 10 years ago, tropical storm Franklin would never have been named. I am fully convinced that NOAA is quick to name storms just to make people think tropical cyclones are more plentiful.
I am also convinced this is the 3rd storm this year that should not be named and would not have been named 10 years ago. But yet you have people like Dr. Jeff Masters who purposefully equate more letters used with increased tropical cyclone activity. Neither NOAA nor Jeff Masters will say “but this was due to better instrumentation” when speaking about tropical cyclones.

Tom C
August 13, 2011 4:45 am

In 1980 this Franklin would have just appeared to be a cluster of convection at the tail end of a frontal boundary. A passing ship would have noted the pressure difference and wind shift and simply attribute the strong gale to the passing front.

August 13, 2011 5:53 am

Anthony, I just looked at the first image in your post and can’t help but laugh. I’ve been doing a tropical update for over two years now for an online surf report.
http://911surfreport.com/forecast.php
I started off using images off the GOES Project Science site and began editing them. My forecast have become quite popular. So popular that I’ve been asked to forecast this years U.S. East Coast Surfing Championship held in Va.Bch 8-22 through 8-28.
I’ve noticed a trend towards my style of editing of images from some of the governmental agency’s. as with this experimental from the TAFB.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/fxc/index.php?large&current_issuance=latest_a#contents
I know I would never be able to prove it but as they say, imitation is the best form of flattery. 🙂

August 13, 2011 6:23 am

The Goracle promised us apocalyptic rain from tropical storms/hurricanes caused by AGW. But all we have here in Texas is drought.
If only GW were still President, HE could steer a tropical storm our way.
Steamboat Jack (Jon Jewett’s evil twin)
PS
Join with Governor Rick Perry and pray for rain. Please-we really do need it!

John M
August 13, 2011 6:44 am
Ian W
August 13, 2011 9:05 am

Tom C says:
August 13, 2011 at 4:45 am
In 1980 this Franklin would have just appeared to be a cluster of convection at the tail end of a frontal boundary. A passing ship would have noted the pressure difference and wind shift and simply attribute the strong gale to the passing front.

(And others that have mentioned NOAA’s alacrity to ‘name’ storms.)
These ‘named tropical storms’ wouldn’t even merit a mention as storms in Scottish or North Sea areas – perhaps ‘a strong breeze’ or a brief announcement on the ‘shipping forecast’ as “winds Force 6 occasionally 7”. It does make one wonder what they are getting excited about.

Editor
August 13, 2011 9:14 am

Brian H says:
August 12, 2011 at 10:29 pm
> So far, btw, zero Atlantic hurricanes.
No big deal. The typical hurricane season doesn’t really get going until mid August.

Keith
August 13, 2011 9:22 am

Looks like Franklin is just about done – cloud pattern is starting to elongate, winds have peaked.
Not sure much is going to come of the next two along the conveyor belt, given the dry air around them, but it’s too soon to say what the most easterly one will develop into.

Laurie Bowen
August 13, 2011 9:31 am
John M
August 13, 2011 10:09 am

Unless I’m mistaken (and I could be), the deepest we’ve gotten into the alphabet before a hurricane formed was 2002 (Gustav).
If the next one that’s named remains a TS…well..I don’t know what that means, other than it will be “unprecedented” and it will be tied to AGW.

timetochooseagain
August 13, 2011 10:13 am

Wade-Actually NOAA names these storms because the meet the scientific criteria to be named.
True, years ago we wouldn’t have named such storms, because better technology gives us the ability to detect them and identify them. I can assure you that if we had the technology and understanding of these storms we do today decades ago, these kinds of storms would have been named. There is no conspiracy among the good people who monitor these storms. The only thing nefarious is that many people don’t listen to the caveats the good people at NOAA specifically publish explaining why one cannot say that, based on these storms, there is any real increase in storms. If people like Jeff Masters and others misuse the named storms counts, that is their wrong doing, not NOAA’s.

Keith
August 14, 2011 6:25 am

John M:
Well TD7 is with us now, and there is practically zero prospect of it becoming a hurricane before it goes extratropical. The law of averages says the next month could be a nasty one, but it’s not the most concrete of laws…

Leon Brozyna
August 14, 2011 11:24 am

So, what’s happened in a day and a half?
95L – quickly went from TD6 to Franklin and has now faded from view.
bye … we hardly knew thee
94L – Quickly went into TD7 and has now become Gert; might stick around
for a day or two
92L – Gert’s sucking the life out of it so far
93L – It’s still there, just not being tracked; guess we bore easily

John M
August 14, 2011 11:37 am

Keith, we now have TS Gert. NHC says 19% chance of it being a hurricane in 48 hrs, after which its chances decrease.
Gustav may retain his trophy.

Keith
August 14, 2011 12:00 pm

Atmospherics look favourable for Gert, but SSTs less so. He’s got 36 hours to take advantage of the gentle shear (though there’s some dry air to the west) before the sea gets too cold, but my money’s against troubling Messrs Saffir and Simpson.
Another way of looking at it is that Gustav was the eighth tropical cyclone of the 2002 season, while Gert is the seventh of this one, so we may have to wait a bit before we know if it’s a tie or a new recent record on both measures.
The ACE index must be bumping along the bottom this season, that’s for sure. I’ll hold my breath for a few more weeks before pronouncing on how the season as a whole is shaping up, but I bet Al Gore’s puffing and panting to try to self-fulfil his prophecy.

John M
August 14, 2011 1:35 pm

Keith,
Al Gore ends up puffing and panting when he walks the ten feet from his air conditioned garage to his chauffered limosine.

John M
August 14, 2011 1:36 pm

btw,
I think Gert’s a girl.

August 14, 2011 3:24 pm

Check it out
Atlantic South Station I D 41049
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41049
located 27.5N 63.0W
Gert passed very close all day as a T.D. and a T.S.
Where are the winds ?

Keith
August 18, 2011 10:43 am

I’ll stick my neck out and say we may have a ‘winner’ in the central Caribbean at the mo. If it avoids Honduras then there’s every chance it’ll reach Belize or eastern Mexico as a category 1 or 2 hurricane.
The main driver appears to be whether the upper-level low around the Yucutan sticks around and imparts enough shear on what would be Harvey to blow the top off it. If not, I’d put money on this one being the first hurricane of the season.

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