Much has been made of the revelation that Charles Monnett is under suspension and investigation related to the issues swirling around drowned polar bears and dubious statistical license used to calculate mortality. I got a request from a reader to locate the poster that started it all. Happy to oblige. See below
Monnett, C., Gleason, J. S., and L. M. Rotterman, 2005. Potential effects of diminished sea ice on open-water swimming, mortality, and distribution of polar bears during fall in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea. 16th Biennial Conference on the Biology of Marine Mammals, 12-16 December 2005, San Diego, CA.
Here’s the image and full resolution PDF:
MarineMammalConference-Dec2005 (PDF)
I read his deposition by the IG. Basically, this is a no brainer. Four drowned bears were seen. The bears died in open water in a high wind event in a month with little sea ice. Like lots of scientists, (solar physicists not included these days) he tried to make a big deal of this one time event. He bosses obviously weren’t pleased. He is supposed to be counting whales to keep the natives happy, not stirring up controversy on flimsy evidence.
So, he just paid the price for not be politically correct for his part of the Federal govt.
To quote Lewis Grizzard:
“That dawg would bite you!”
Peter Walsh says:
August 8, 2011 at 12:38 pm
Peter, Nobody here is being disrespectful to the people injured or killed in that attack, if you realize that many readers here have commented many times about how many of these study groups treat these wild animals and their environment with total disrespect and with complete disregard of how dangerous the conditions are and how dangerous the bears actually are, it was an accident waiting to happen, and most readers here would have been aware of this.
What you are reading is a kind of “I told you so”.
There should be lessons learned form this attack and it’s sad that a young boy had to lose his life.
Nature is harsh and unforgiving it takes no prisoners even the most experienced wildlife and outdoors experts have been killed by a momentary lapse of judgment.
No doubt there could be a panda bear attack because they’re cuddly creatures too aren’t they?
Sparky;
No kiddin’! Pandas are actually very ornery in the wild, if somewhat lethargic. And their digging claws can rip you stem to stern. They eat meat, btw, when they can find it.
ChE said:
August 8, 2011 at 12:10 pm
You walk out you door, and find a dollar in the street. You pick up the dollar, and look both ways for another dollar. You don’t see any, so you go back in your house.
You’re a climate scientist so, you write a report that says that you found a dollar, and could see 100 feet in each direction, so there’s got to be on average a dollar every 200′. You then publish a paper claiming that it’s SCIENCE!!! that there are $25 laying around on every mile.
The logic’s impeccable.
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I think your analogy accurately summarizes Monnett’s study. It would work out to $625 per square mile and with 14×10^6 square kilometers of arctic ice it works out to $3.4 billion per your analogy for 3.4 billion dead polar bears just lying around. Again, as you said, the logic is indeed impeccable.
Anthony: My respects, sir, for the headline: “…that launched a thousand quips”
My only regret is that the bear wasn’t shot and killed before it had a chance to maul a human being.
I reject this sanctimonious crap about how people who go into the wild “had it coming” when one of them is killed by a wild animal. All this crud about how we’re in “their” living room and some such. What never seems to get explained is where “our” territory supposedly ends and “theirs” supposedly begins. Don’t say the edge of developed areas; there have been cougar attacks in suburban neighborhoods in my state.
As far as I’m concerned, human beings rule this world, and as the only sentient species on this world (and therefore the dominant one) we reserve the right to go where we wish. We also reserve the right to shoot and kill any animal threatening one of us. That the area where this attack took place actually mandates the presence of a rifle tells me that common sense prevails among those who are frequently in these areas; I’ll defer to their judgement rather than that of someone sitting behind his keyboard who is all worried about animals being left unmolested in their natural habitat.
I don’t care if you fancy yourself a gun control advocate or an environmentalist, or if you steadfastly deny being either of those things. You’re still wrong, Tom.
And the Mauser K98k is a damn good rifle. It was the primary weapon issued to the German army during World War II. I’m disappointed to hear that it let them down when they needed it; more likely the culprit was the ammunition. It was probably old surplus stuff like I use at the rifle range…which between the age and the cold weather, were duds.
@Cylar: my thoughts as well. Only very old ammunition could result in four consecutive misfires.
Looks like those tour organisers need to review their safety procedures.
Kasuha, about your bears on land comment: That’s actually not been raised before; that the study was restricted to animals found a sea with absolutely NO thought given to the idea that bears probably normally spend some part of their time on land.
JoeL: Just how did Monnett decide that the bears died at sea and from drowing? It’s not like he got close to them, their own protocol required that they stay 1200 feet in the air and they apparently didn’t do a fly over – just saw them from a distance. Were they really dead, or were they asleep?
If the polar bears were living forever; would have being 3-4 bears stuck on the top of each other. People drown / bears drown… The real reason they emphasize that is getting too hot for the bear in Arctic circle is: people to accept that: if is getting too hot there – what will happen in the subtropics…? Start panicking, what are you waiting for?! The real problem is: if is no carbon tax, Warmist adhesive fingers are useless.
re Dirk H’s comment
“They went up there to sleep in tents in the place with the highest concentration of Polar Bears on the planet; didn’t bring a dog, had difficulties with their Mauser, had a non-working alarm system.”
Just as a matter of interest, I was listening in on the BBC just 2 days after the tragic death of Horatio Chapple. An expert in survival in high northern latitudes was explaining the trip wire system generally used to warn of advancing predators, (polar bears in particular) and he said that on occasions his trip wire mechanism had frozen up and was inoperative.
Cylar says: “As far as I’m concerned, human beings rule this world, and as the only sentient species on this world (and therefore the dominant one) we reserve the right to go where we wish. We also reserve the right to shoot and kill any animal threatening one of us.”
And if you cannot shoot them, they reserve the right to maul you and kill you. If they don’t eat you, their chums will join in to do that part of the job.
On a similar point – guns and bullets are useless against many of the organisms that nature will throw at you and, one of these days, could wipe out large parts of humanity (e.g. influenza).
My comment is not about gun control. It replies to the notion that we are have somehow mastered Mother Nature. That’s akin to the notion that God created us in his own image = nonsense.
Cylar (at 9:41 pm) says: All this…about how we’re in “their” living room and some such. What never seems to get explained is where “our” territory supposedly ends and “theirs” supposedly begins….”
Agree fully. I think we humans actually have existed longer than polar bears. And, on land at least or not in a steel ship at sea, we are the dominant species. We make laws and regulations to protect them from us. They don’t read the ones that protect us from them.
This was a predictable tragedy. Incompetence and inexperience in dangerous surroundings are a certain recipe. I’m sorry for all – young man, mom and dad, those about to be sued, and lastly, bear – but WE should know better. I’m not taking ignominy from Peter Walsh @ur momisugly August 8, 2011 at 12:38 pm; WE (as in those who organized this disaster) should have known better. Unfortunately, it will be repeated from time to time. That’s why books like “Maneaters of Kumaon” (Jim Corbett) or “Out of Thin Air” will always be best-sellers.
Nobody expects the sudden Australian drop bear attack. Few survive to tell.
Here is something of a coincidence of which I read in a letter to the National Post newspaper this morning;
” When he was a 15-year-old boy, Admiral Horatio Nelson was a midshipman in the British navy. While on a survey expedition, looking of an Arctic passage to India, he barely escaped death after being attacked by a polar bear on Svalbard in 1773.”
http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/cold+encounter/5225510/story.html
The notion that Man is the Center and Master of the Universe pervades many so called “scientific ” conclusions. Man is responsible for CO2, man is responsible for the Ozone Hole, man is responsible for Arctic Ice cycling etc. These are religious ideas from pre-Galilean times. Man is a part of the Universe, and so are polar bears and crocodiles, and we are all that much more precious for knowing that . Svensmarks hypothesis regarding cosmic rays and climate makes us all that more aware of our intimacy.
I put this link in another post but i’ll re-post it here, be aware this may upset some people as it’s a conservative view on the polar bear attack.
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2011/08/bear-witness.html
The trip wire didn’t work because it was frozen solid due to global warming.
Don’t you know polars are on the verge of extinction? I urge all AGW proponents, especially the Goreacle, MM and Gavin to savour one of life’s great pleasures before it’s gone forever: handfeeding Churchill Manitoba polar bears.
So I assume the photo is a stock photo from NOAA of a typical day showing a polly bare swimming in typical fashion, IE not drowning. So how again does the photo help prove a point? If anything, it proves a point for the OTHER side! Did the author of the article NOT take a class in argumentative writing or debate technique?
So let’s ask the photographer about where he was when he took this photo. Did HE see any dead polly bares? If not, he could grid out the area he was viewing and come to the exact opposite conclusion of the above report.
Speaking of a thousand quips. We’re still counting the ones for this thread. Sort of like dropping a puck on the ice and everybody starts slapping at it. So much outrage, so little reason.
>>”Trying not to be sarcastic, I find it amazing that any one would struggle between the possibilities of the best swimming land mammals being stranded… …”
After all, a polar bear is known as “Ursus maritimus” … in other words, “Sea Bear”.
It’s entirely possible that the k98k was functionally fine at some warmer temperature. Arctic cold requires stripping lube from firearms so that frozen grease doesn’t dampen the firing pin blow. Old ammo might also have been a cause.
If you are not at the top of the food chain, you probably should be better prepared to deal with those creatures that are.
Mike