As many readers have noted, one of the Arctic sea ice extent plots on our WUWT sea ice page took a Serreze style nosedive today:
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png
According to DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute), this is the source of the data:
The ice extent values are calculated from the ice type data from the Ocean and Sea Ice, Satellite Application Facility (OSISAF), where areas with ice concentration higher than 30% are classified as ice.
And when I backtrace from OSISAF to find what satellite/sensor they used, this is what they say:
Data used: SSM/I (DMSP F15), ECMWF forecast for atmospheric correction
The glitch is reminiscent of the Feb 2009 failure of an SSMI sensor used by NSIDC.
That failure showed up on NSIDC’s plot, and when I pointed it out with a blog post NSIDC responded that it “isn’t worth blogging about“.
Click for larger image
A couple of days later they were forced by the failure of the sensor to take their data offline, so apparently it was worth blogging about after all.
They wrote in the press release at the time:
Last year, F13 started showing large amounts of missing data. The sensor was almost 13 years old, and no longer provided complete daily data to allow us to track total daily sea ice extent. As a result, we switched to the DMSP F15 sensor for our near-real-time analysis.
And as noted above, DMI uses SSM/I (DMSP F15), the same as NSIDC. Is this glitch worth blogging about? I think so since NSIDC was unaware last time that a problem had developed until we pointed it out for them.
This looks like the beginning of the problem on August 6th, as seen at the OSI SAF page:
Source: http://saf.met.no/p/ice/nh/conc/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201108061200_pal.jpg
The day before on August 5th:
Source: http://saf.met.no/p/ice/nh/conc/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201108051200_pal.jpg
It may be related to the three Coronal Mass Ejections, (CME) that hit Earth about that time. From Spaceweather.com
Earth’s magnetic field is still reverberating from a CME strike on August 5th that sparked one of the strongest geomagnetic storms in years. Registering 8 on the 0 to 9 “K-index” scale of magnetic disturbances, the storm at maximum sparked auroras across Europe and in many northern-tier US states.
It is possible the satellite operator shut down the bird for protection, but nobody got the memo. There’s no mention of data outages on NSIDC’s page or at CT or other ice product websites that I’ve found. Or, the sensor data might be so corrupt as to be unusable, or the sensor has been fried by the CME.
So, like before, I’ll send NSIDC’s Dr. Walt Meier a courtesy note on this one and see what he says. NSIDC’s plot averages over 5 days, IIRC, so it won’t show up for a few days and they have time to correct it if in fact it is the satellite sensor data again.
This may be a sensor issue, or it may be an algorithm issue. Since other plots aren’t showing it, we know it doesn’t represent a real loss of ice, just loss of data.
Curiously though, I’ve noted another glitch half a world away:
Source: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/ice_ext_s.png
Which looks to be unrelated, since it is the AMSR-E sensor on a different satellite.
Must be the day for glitches in sea ice.
Meanwhile, Row to the Pole‘s progress is slowing to a crawl:
Must be a sea ice glitch of a different kind.
UPDATE:
Dr.Walt Meier of NSIDC responds:
Hi Anthony,
This is quite clearly a data issue. We don’t work with the F15 satellite
anymore – we’ve been using the sensor on the newer F17 satellite, so I
can’t say if it is a a sensor problem or a processing issue at DMI. I
could be the CME, though it doesn’t seem to have affected the F17
sensor. From the image, it looks to be a missing swath of data, perhaps
from CME, perhaps from some other issue. A missing swath is not
particularly unexpected. Sometimes the data can be recovered later and
added in, sometimes not. The AMSR-E issue in the Antarctic also appears
to be due to one or more missing swaths of data on Aug. 5:
In our images, as you point out, we do a 5-day averaging to remove the
noise, often errors due to ephemeral weather effects, from the
timeseries. This avoids the day-to-day ups and downs that can be
misleading and provides a more representative overall trajectory (though
we do get occasional wiggles from the preliminary data used in the 5-day
data that is later replaced).
For the timeseries plot, we also interpolate over missing data (such as
a missing swath) using data for that region from the day before and
(when it becomes available) the day after. However, there doesn’t appear
to be any missing swaths in our F17 data over the last several days.
Info on the sensor we use and the interpolation are explained on our
website here:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/disclaimer1.html
You’re welcome to print the above, though if you do, I would appreciate
if you would also add the following links, where we addressed the sensor
issue and made corrections to the near-real-time data.
And also here, where I discussed some the issues dealing with
near-real-time data from satellite sensors:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/01/nsidcs-walt-meier-responds-on-the-sensor-issue/
These may be useful for new readers or to refresh other readers’
memories, such as some of the readers who posted in the comments section.
walt
——————————————-
Walt Meier, Research Scientist
National Snow and Ice Data Center
University of Colorado
UCB 449, Boulder, CO 80309
Oh goodness! Quick, someone call Prof. Flannery and tell him to sell his two waterfront houses NOW! \sarc
Don’t Hide the Decline………Never!!
It’s back up again now. Looks like it’s the sun!
Athelstan. says:
August 7, 2011 at 4:51 pm
I have to disagree. I almost never agree with R Gates, but you have to admit he (/she/it) is always very civil, despite the great many taunts thrown in his direction.
I appreciated Walt Meier’s response. We should all behave likewise and, as at Anthony’s request, ‘Keep it nice’.
Dr Walt Meier,
Thank you for your communication.
Anthony, thanks for asking him & your WUWT site to see and discuss it all.
John
Make a note in your diaries everybody. R Gates has finally made a verifiable prediction on Arctic Sea Ice.
R. Gates says:
August 7, 2011 at 2:51 pm
By the time the September low comes around, we’ll end up with the least amount of sea ice on record by area and volume (or at least since the Holocene Climate Optimum!).
No mention of “Extent” though.
CNN reported record lows in ice on the arctic in July.
Is this not true?
Exactly how far back do those records go? Do we have sea ice records (for both area and volume) for the Holocene Climate Optimum but not the Roman Climate Optimum or the Medieval Climate Optimum?
And where exactly, is the warming still in the pipeline?
By the way
it is still cold here/
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/winters-are-getting-colder-in-pretoria-bring-back-the-global-warming-please
I do not consider R. Gates to be knowledgable to the point of being boring. He is an armchair scientist somewhat like many of us here. However, I consider him to be not as versed in the scientific method as most of us are here. To wit: his assurance that there is warming in the pipeline. He speaks of it as if it were the null hypothesis. Anyone putting out peer reviewed papers says no such thing. Until it is found, it is decidedly not the null hypothesis. Given that gaping hole in R. Gates’ understanding (among many such holes) of current research, his hubris is either feigned and meant to rile feathers at best, or is his own over-estimate of his knowledge at worst.
Looks like there’s a corresponding instrumentation spike in the SORCE TSI measurements, courtesy of Leif’s solar page, with TSI dropping a full 1 watt in the space of a few days.
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
agreed R.Gates is hopeless (as witnessed on other threads).
he does not want to step off his high horse
he should read and try to understand
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/what-was-that-what-henry-said
I’m still trying to find out if the wrong sensor caused inaccurate reports by CNN?
A. C. Osborn says:
August 8, 2011 at 6:39 am
Make a note in your diaries everybody. R Gates has finally made a verifiable prediction on Arctic Sea Ice.
R. Gates says:
August 7, 2011 at 2:51 pm
By the time the September low comes around, we’ll end up with the least amount of sea ice on record by area and volume (or at least since the Holocene Climate Optimum!).
No mention of “Extent” though.
#######
Volume is the killer. You can see how it takes year after year of battering away and multi year ice to finally get to a point where a huge portion of the basin is at concentrations of less than 80%. and its only august. , losing all this volume looks like a turning point.
Willis says:
Thanks, R. Gates. Could you please cite your sources for the claim that the NE and NW passages were not “virtually open” in 1750?
Also, what does “virtually open” mean? Because to me it means that the passages are open in a virtual world, say a climate model. For you it clearly means something else, but what?
____
Willis, this term “virtually” ice free, when referring to anything related to ice coverage in the Arctic has a very specific meaning, which has nothing to do with imaginary, but rather can be translated as “for all intents and purposes”. But I suspect a very smart man such as yourself knows this, and is simply trying to make some obtuse point. When an area is “virtually” ice free is doesn’t mean that every bit of ice is clear from any area, but rather that the area, when looked at in total, has more open water than ice. In the coming years and decades, you can expect to hear this term a lot in the NH summer. When looking at the Arctic as a whole, for quite some time there may be areas such as along the Northern tip of Greenland or along the Northern Canadian Archipelago where some thicker older ice may cling throughout the year. In such cases we may see the Arctic sea ice area fall to less than 1 million sq. km., and it would be “virtually” ice free and quite navigable. Right now, MODIS shows that, while there is some broken ice in the area and clouds block a completely clear view, you could navigate both the NW and NW passages (i.e. there are no large chucks of thick multiyear ice blocking your passage):
NW passage: http://www.arctic.io/observations/8/2011-08-07/7-N77.069199-W112.186825/Canada-Inuvik
NW passage: http://www.arctic.io/observations/8/2011-08-07/7-N75.183286-E146.895908/Russia-Sakha-Republic
The NE passage has been declared “officially open” by the Russian’s:
http://gcaptain.com/arctic-melt-record-northwest-passage?28769
And I suspect, I may be a bit ahead of the “official” announcement, the NW passage will be declared “officially” open as well in the next week to 10 days, as the clouds and slushy ice will delay the official announcement for a bit…
To your question regarding how I “know” these were not open in say, the 1700’s. Well, I must trust those who’ve studied this a bit and documented the logs from ships as well as other scientific proxy research that strongly indicates that the open of the NW and NE passages is something that hasn’t occurred in at least a thousand years:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379110000429
http://hal.univ-brest.fr/docs/00/48/20/53/PDF/Masse_Resume.pdf
BTW, this second study seems to hint that clearly the NE and NW passages were not open in 1750, but perhaps during the MWP, the NE and NW passages might well have been open, which should bring some delight to a few readers here on WUWT.
Nuke says:
August 8, 2011 at 7:16 am
R. Gates says:
August 7, 2011 at 2:51 pm
James Allison says:
August 7, 2011 at 2:00 pm
Arrrhhhh….. never should have believed all you skeptics. R Gates is right.
Head for the hills…..
____
While the sea ice extent has indeed turned down pretty dramatically since Anthony posted his “turn to the right” article, we’d better hope this huge of a drop is some crazy sensor error (maybe related to the solar flare?), or indeed, things will be “worse than we thought.”
As it is, some areas of high pressure and a nice little dipole settling in over the Arctic for an extended August visit. Expect a lot of export from the Fram and a lot of melting in place during this time. By the time the September low comes around, we’ll end up with the least amount of sea ice on record by area and volume (or at least since the Holocene Climate Optimum!). With the warming still in the pipeline, we’ll have a virtually ice free summer arctic by the time most of you are gumming your oatmeal at the retirement home.
Exactly how far back do those records go? Do we have sea ice records (for both area and volume) for the Holocene Climate Optimum but not the Roman Climate Optimum or the Medieval Climate Optimum?
And where exactly, is the warming still in the pipeline?
_____
1) We got 40% more CO2 in the atmosphere than at anytime in the past 800,000 years (and probably longer and it’s growing every year. This represents a continued forcing on the climate, despite pronouncements by skeptics otherwise.
2) Just in terms of ocean heat content, which has risen in the past few decades (and yes, it’s leveled off recently, but it hasn’t subsided). The bulk of the heat (and CO2) from anthropogenic sources has gone into the oceans. If the ocean heat content had fallen over the past few decades as atmospheric temperatures have risen, we be hard pressed to say there is still heat “in the pipeline”
Taken together, the continued elevated CO2 levels and clear long-term trend in ocean heat content, means there’s more warmth ahead in the long-term, with steady upward trend in global temps for the next century when looked at on a decade by decade average, as the yearly temps can wiggle up or down from ENSO, volcanoes, solar cycles, etc. CO2 is a stronger long-term forcing than these…and thank god it is.
Do we have “catastrophic” amounts of heat already in the “pipeline”. That’s the question, really, isn’t it?
steven mosher says:
August 8, 2011 at 8:27 am
“Volume is the killer”
_____
Indeed.
R Gates, your pronouncements boggle the mind. And it appears, negates your 75%/25% (or there abouts) wriggle room you used to give yourself. May I say that virtually, you have drunk the koolaid and have laid down to await the end of the world.
REPLY: Exit question for R. Gates. Are you one of Al Gore’s trained presenters? – Anthony
R.Gates says:
We got 40% more CO2 in the atmosphere than at anytime in the past 800,000 years (and probably longer and it’s growing every year. This represents a continued forcing on the climate, despite pronouncements by skeptics otherwise.
Henry@R.Gates (again)
1) the exact amount (of the increase in CO2) is 0.01%, namely from 0.03% (280 ppm’s) in 1960 to 0.04% (390 ppm)now. http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/more-carbon-dioxide-is-ok-ok
2) the tables (with verifyable results from weather stations from all over the world) show that the warming of the last 4 decades is due to natural causes and not by an increase in GHG’s
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
3) It is getting cooler now, especially if you start looking at weather stations from 2005 onwards
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/winters-are-getting-colder-in-pretoria-bring-back-the-global-warming-please
Do we have “catastrophic” amounts of heat already in the “pipeline”. That’s the question, really, isn’t it?
4) Global cooling is coming. Better be prepared for that. Follow this graph. It shows we should soon be back to where we were in the 70’s……
http:/wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/orssengo3.png
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/global-cooling-is-coming
Interesting & pertinant post over at Mr Goddard’s place!
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/08/08/1947-temperatures-in-the-arctic-have-increased-by-10-degrees-fahrenheit-since-1900/
http:/wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/orssengo3.png
there was a fw slash missing
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/orssengo3.png
Clearly an issue with the data.
I think you forgot to answer this question, which was really the salient question:
Exactly how far back do those records go? Do we have sea ice records (for both area and volume) for the Holocene Climate Optimum but not the Roman Climate Optimum or the Medieval Climate Optimum?
I’m sure that was just an oversight on your part.
Does anyone know what the official word is on the “dead sector”?
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_daily_concentration_hires.png