Over the past few days, Arctic sea ice extent has braked dramatically in the daily loss rate and now has made a sharp right turn, which is rather unusual. Here’s the JAXA extent:
And here is a close up view, note the 2011 red line:
That turn is unique to the record since 2002. Note that in 2007, there was also a turn, though brief, and then melt accelerated.
It is also showing up in the NSIDC plot:
But what is really most interesting is the plot from DMI, which show not only a turn, but a reversal:
What does this mean? The short answer is, probably nothing. When we approach the minimum, and the ice pack becomes more fractured and scattered, it also becomes more susceptible to the vagaries of local and regional wind and weather.
WUWT regular and contributor “Just the facts” suggested in comments that:
One factor appears to be the Greenland Sea, where sea ice began to grow on July 15th and has been trending above average since then.
Source: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/r07_Greenland_Sea_ts.png
On the other hand, looking at the most recent comparison with 2007, the Arctic ice cover looks a bit more soupy in 2011:
Air temperature is above freezing throughout the Arctic….
…as is fairly normal for this time of year:
Clearly, at present, air temperature in the Arctic is not in any way climatologically abnormal, so the reasons for the current extent being low and making erratic turns must lie elsewhere. Wind, soot deposition/albedo, ocean currents, etc. all factor in.
So, while we may have temporarily avoided a new record minimum (as many in the “Serreze death spiral” camp said we are headed to) there’s still the possibility that the plots will turn to the left again, and resume or even accelerate. It all depends on the weather, and the outcome could go either way at this point. Historically, we have about 7 more weeks before the turn upwards as the Arctic begins the slow re-freeze.
Still, it makes for interesting observation and discussion. The WUWT sea ice page has all the latest stats, updated as soon as they are made available.
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UPDATE: Bill Illis runs his own database, and offers this interesting view in comments.
The last 21 days are the lowest melt since 1973 in my database over the same period. The total ice extent is still well-below average but there are very few periods in the record where the trend is so different than normal for an extended period of time like the current period is.
Matching up a few different datasets back to 1972.
UPDATE2: In the meantime, while extent loss slows, the NSIDC “death spiral team” tries to make a case for a record low average for July, while at the same time admitting that On July 31, 2011 Arctic sea ice extent was 6.79 million square kilometers (2.62 million square miles). This was slightly higher than the previous record low for the same day of the year, set in 2007.
Arctic sea ice at record low for July
Arctic sea ice extent averaged for July 2011 reached the lowest level for the month in the 1979 to 2011 satellite record, even though the pace of ice loss slowed substantially during the last two weeks of July. Shipping routes in the Arctic have less ice than usual for this time of year, and new data indicate that more of the Arctic’s store of its oldest ice disappeared.
Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for July 2011 was 7.92 million square kilometers (3.06 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data. About the data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterHigh-resolution image
Overview of conditions
Average ice extent for July 2011 was 7.92 million square kilometers (3.06 million square miles). This is 210,000 square kilometers (81,000 square miles) below the previous record low for the month, set in July 2007, and 2.18 million square kilometers (842,000 square miles) below the average for 1979 to 2000.
On July 31, 2011 Arctic sea ice extent was 6.79 million square kilometers (2.62 million square miles). This was slightly higher than the previous record low for the same day of the year, set in 2007. Sea ice coverage remained below normal everywhere except the East Greenland Sea.
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Every “Arctic Sea Ice News” entry this year includes some sort foreboding “I’M MELLLLLTING!” rhetoric:
Jan 5: “..lowest December ice extent recorded in satellite observations from 1979 to 2010”
Feb 2: “…lowest January ice extent recorded since satellite records began”
Mar 2: “…the downward winter trend is clear..”
Mar 23: “…equal (within 0.1%) to 2006 for the lowest maximum extent in the satellite record.”
April 5: “…ice extent remained below normal…”
May 4: “…Ice extent was lower than average…”
June 6: “…Ice extent remained lower than average…”
July 6: “June ice extent was lower than normal..”
July 18: “…sea ice extent declined at a rapid pace…”
Aug 3: ” ..210,000 square kilometers below the previous record low for the month, set in July 2007…”
I wonder what they’d have written if the satellite record had begun in 2007?
anticlimactic says:
August 3, 2011 at 11:37 am
Here is support for your hypothesys: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Note how summer air temperature never exceeds +3C in the records going back to 1958.
I asked the question some time ago; to raise global sea levels by 1 metre by 2100 some 400,000 cubic kilometres of land ice must melt. Since you can’t depend on sea water for this, how can the air carry enough energy to melt the ice in the forecast time scale?
Hm, don’t make too much of it yet. Remember it is about ice surface. Perhaps the winds have changed a bit lately. Oh, sorry. I didn’t mean to spoil your joy. Let’s see where we are in September. If it is well above the mean by then, we could make a feast, perhaps.
The Truncated Row to the Old Magnetic Pole site takes comments. They’re so goofy-gushy I had to counterbalance:
I’m so ashamed.
Sorta.
I don’t see what’s so unusual about this. Last year, there was also a period of a few weeks when the melt rate decreased (albeit a few weeks earlier), only to resume a faster rate later on. Exactly the same thing could happen this year. It ain’t over ’til its over.
I don’t know if i’m imagining it but to me the antarctic ice is doing the same as the artic ice.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
Bystander says:
August 3, 2011 at 11:29 am
This is another non-scientific statement Smokey – the make-up of the atmosphere clearly impacts climate. It is impossible for there not to be an impact – the question is now much as the composition of the atmosphere changes.
Yep, you’re right – yours is about as unscientific as they get. “The make-up of the atmosphere” – is that the latest Alarmospeak for “carbon”?
“Impossible for there not to be”, meaning your most fervent wishful thinking. Any “impact” is likely to be exceedingly small, such that it gets lost in the noise. It’s like saying that a flea on an elephant’s back “impacts” the elephant’s forward motion by virtue of its mass and extra wind resistance.
R. Gates says (August 3, 2011 at 11:28 am): “As the ice diverges into these areas, it will melt. Expect an equally sudden turn downward in extent in the next week or so …”
No room for a positive ice albedo effect to amplify the ice gain in your reasoning?
Would be interested to hear why a positive ice albedo effect might be one-sided in favour of ice loss.
AGW Panic Stations!
: Antarctica sea ice shows accelerating increase over past 30 years
A paper published last month in the journal Climate Dynamics finds that:
Could get a cracking view of events unfolding from Cam 2 of NOAA’s floating ‘pole’ cams next week. Not of the ice, but of the Perseids meteor shower…
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa2.jpg
Gary says:
August 3, 2011 at 9:04 am
Just when you thought it was safe to bet your quatloos over at Lucia’s site this happens…
######
ya i was all set to bet a couple weeks ago, but it was clear that weather was gunna dominate what happened. I wish you could bet two numbers cause one would be 4.5 and the other would be 5+.
I’m still saying 5.5 minimum. I wasn’t too confident a week or so ago, but now maybe…
It’s an other-right turn people, get it straight.
a little fun
—————-
Ships Log of the virtual ice extent vessel JAXA in the Artic. Captain AMSR-E commanding.
@ur momisugly 09:oo 31 Jul 2011
Captain AMRSE says: Helmsman, report.
Helmsman says: Captain AMSR-E, Sir, we have been on a heading of southeast @ur momisugly135 degrees for about a week. Ice is soupy and winds fair. No dead polar bears sighted, Sir!
Captain AMSR-E says: Very good helmsman. Prepare for change of course.
Helmsman says: Prepare for course change, aye Sir.
Captain AMSR-E says: Port your helm 45 degrees to a new heading of due East @ur momisugly 090 degrees.
Helmsman says: Make new heading off the port bow at 090 degrees, due East, aye Sir.
Helmsman says: Now bearing due East Sir!
Captain AMSR-E says: Very well helmsman. Attention radioman, send a signal to the blog WUWT reporting our change of heading. Lots of good mates there love this kind of info.
: )
John
I can see very similar turn in 2010 data just about one month earlier and it didn’t mean anything – there may be less ice melted but more about to melt. I still think we’re going to get record low or close second.
They forgot to ‘correctly’ adjust it…
Another factor may be thicker ice during the winter has made the ice cap a little more resistant to melting preserving the extent value as we see now.
“the Arctic ice cover looks a bit more soupy in 2011:”
Even if temps do not indicate a strong melt, there can still be lots of potential for compaction. As many have said, time will tell, place your bets and sit back.
It is the 3rd of August 2011 and we still have some ice left in the arctic.Could it be that Joe Bastardi was correct with his prediction for this year?
I have been watching these little turns for a long while now and can nearly predict them well from sunspots. When the number and darkness of the sunspots goes up the TSI goes down and the sea ice extent at both poles turns toward more ice. When the sun clears up the TSI goes up and the sea ice extent lines both turn toward less ice.
Also if the solar wind speed and density are low the turn is toward more ice(different to TSI).
So now with a higher than recent sunspot count we have lower TSI and the ice extent lines turn toward more ice. Solar wind speed is falling but the density is up a bit. The sunspot count went down just a bit so the turn maybe just a bit back from the last few days but still toward more ice for the next few days.
Does TSI or solar wind change the wind(air) at the poles?
From Knuts on August 3, 2011 at 10:52 am:
Nah, not quite. Right-side driving is more correct for practical and scientific reasons.
Humans are predominantly right-handed. As is normal and practical, the driver is positioned next to the center of the road, thus in the US they sit on the left side. The left hand operates simple controls like turn signals and headlights, while the right hand operates the more complex controls traditionally found near the center of the vehicle like originally the shifter, later on the environmental and sound system controls, these days even the GPS. Thus right side of the road driving, when considering control placement, is aligned with what is normally expected in human body orientation (right-handedness).
Also, with that normal body orientation, the left arm is normally used for defensive motions, the shield arm. By placing the left arm against the door, in the case of a side impact it is far more likely the left arm will be injured instead of the right arm. Normally the right arm is far more important for dexterity and general functionality; if you’re right-handed and had to choose which arm to lose, you’d choose the left arm. The right arm, normally the more-important arm, is better protected by being near the center of the vehicle.
Thus, given standard driver placement near the center of the road and the expected right-handedness of humans, it is more practical thus more correct to drive on the right side of the road.
I’m curious.
It has been established that soot has a significant role in ice melt. Is anyone trying to track or measure this in any way? If not, why not?
lowercasefred says:
August 3, 2011 at 2:40 pm
I’m curious.
It has been established that soot has a significant role in ice melt. Is anyone trying to track or measure this in any way? If not, why not?
_________________________________
fred, melt via soot is counter- meme
Kev-in-Uk says:
August 3, 2011 at 11:48 am
Kev,
the DMI has graphical data on the Artic temperature back to 1959 here.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
It looks like at this time last year the temperature was at or below 0’C
Sandy
Could it be due to sensor tuning? As someone who’s worked extensively with sensors, I know how difficult they can be to keep calibrated, so that year to year data is good. I’m sure calibrations and adjustments are made, and data corrected, and this could lead to strange trends. Sensors tuned to match sensitivity in one range (i.e., 80% cover) ice can be low in another range (i.e., 100% cover), which is one possibility (of many!) in explaining the recent zag.