The "Row to the Pole" publicity stunt looks doomed to failure by a sea ice block

Regular readers may recall that back on June 15th, I pointed out the absurdity of this “Row to the Pole” publicity stunt sponsored by the whisky company “Old Pulteney” which had plans to row to the North Magnetic Pole (based on the 1996 location) and along the way take some temperature, water, and ice samples along the way in the guise of a science expedition.

Only problem was, the North Magnetic Pole is far into the Arctic sea now, and ice locked. The destination they chose for “Row to the Pole” hasn’t been the location of the North Magnetic Pole for 15 years, as I illustrated below, they’ll fall about 738 km/458 miles short of the North Magnetic Pole due to a drift of about 41km/year:

Undeterred by this complication, the group of rowers has set off anyway, and made some good progress according to their Facebook page, covering 40 kilometers on the first day. They even offer a satellite tracking page to watch the progress.

Too bad though they have not checked the latest satellite images from NASA’s AQUA Modis RAPIDFIRE page. I did, and it looks like the expedition is going to hit a wall of ice soon.

Here’s the area I chose to look at today from this NASA image link=>

I rotated/cropped, plotted the approximate proposed path, and annotated the image from NASA to help readers see what the Row to the Pole people are soon going to run into in a couple of days:

Note the patch of white in the red box that the planned rowing path transects. Are those clouds or ice? The magnified view area gives the answer below.

Click for a full sized hi-resolution image

Yup, unless those guys in the rowboat have an icebreaker leading the way, or there’s an “instamelt” de-icing ahead of them, they likely aren’t going anywhere near the old North Magnetic Pole circa 1996, much less the actual one.

Looks like “Scotch on the Rocks” for them.

However, like any good publicity stunt, they’ll probably figure out some way to make a success out of it, perhaps declaring that “important though incomplete science has been done”.

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Roger Knights
August 2, 2011 3:13 am

G. Karst says:
August 1, 2011 at 7:27 am
I think a comparative skeptical expedition would be a voyage to the Maldives to prove it hasn’t sunk below the waves.

A clever idea. Here are other points of interest it could visit:
The Hong Kong tidal gauge the IPCC relies on.
The tide-mark in the wall in Tasmania that Daly discussed.
Wave-erosion marks in cliffs in the Mediterranean.
The North Carolina location relied on by Mann et al.
Etc. An hour-long TV show could be spun around this, with lots of interesting visual images.

Brian H
August 2, 2011 3:22 am

Dave Springer says:
July 31, 2011 at 4:38 pm

The acceleration of the MNP obviously caused EM disruption of the neural circuitry of certain susceptible individuals, leading to the generation and publication of the Hokey Stick.
Easy, see? You just have to posit the correct high sensitivity levels!
🙂

Editor
August 2, 2011 4:48 am

From the RttP News feed:
Windy conditions today and some much heavier cloud cover made for a pretty tough day. There was a magical start to our day seeing no few than 4 polar bears. They were our first…and seeing a mother with cubs was really special. They are quite magnificent creatures and a real privilege to see them. Not that everyone immediately realized what they were looking at. Now I don’t want to point fingers, but one of my colleagues actually thought the cubs were…. Goats!

Keith
August 2, 2011 7:05 am

Goats?! Ha, that’s priceless! Let’s hope that individual didn’t pack some Scottish thistle to feed to them…

David
August 2, 2011 8:18 am

I’ve got a spare aerosol of windscreen de-icer in my garage that they might find comes in handy….

Mr. D.Imwit
August 2, 2011 9:39 am

Thank you Ric Werme For your reply,
However it seems these reports are intentionally confusing to a layman,on the Expedition science page it says things like the four lowest since records began,but on the graph, 2007 was lower.It seems like this climate science is all smoke and mirrors.
Anyhow thanks for the reply, it’s still as clear as mud to me.
Just a footnote,that link I wrote to the report I read should be (http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/) and down the bottom of the page is a PDF link.

August 2, 2011 4:38 pm

Ric Werme says:
August 1, 2011 at 9:48 pm
Mr.D.Imwit says:
August 1, 2011 at 9:51 am
(www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/ArticReportCard_full_report.pdf) So I had a look at this report “The last four summers” doesn’t include this one, so it’s 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010. http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/ArticReportCard_full_report.pdf doesn’t seem to exist.

It does if Arctic is spelled correctly!

Tom in Florida
August 3, 2011 4:38 am

“but one of my colleagues actually thought the cubs were…. Goats!”
Partaking of the “Old Pulteney” a little too soon, eh?

Will
August 4, 2011 3:19 am

The Top Gear Polar Special episode is a real treat. A cross sea ice drive to the magnetic pole that let the viewer see arctic conditions as they really are, not as the computer modelers wish them to be. (on YouTube)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top_Gear:_Polar_Special

Editor
August 4, 2011 5:45 am

PBs successfully defended their turf last night against people who only accidentally had a guard on duty:
End of 2nd August and day of 3rd August
After we’d said our goodbyes to the support crew we relocated to the other side of the Bay for extra protection. As they had the evening before, Dave and Mark B decided to go head to head with nature and camp on shore. This being a team expedition we all pitched in to help them build a site and set up camp, then went our separate ways to dine – myself and Mark D confined to the servant quarters out the back of the boat, Jock and Rob in the penthouse up front and Dave and Mark in the adventurer’s cave up on the hill overlooking the boat.

Whilst everyone else was lost to the fairies I was tapping away on the computer and as I gazed out the cabin in search of some inspiration I spotted a large white furry animal fast approaching the tent. Yes, it was a polar bear.
We’d been trained by Tony Woodford in the art of polar bear evasion and ultimately warfare, so I was geared up to handle the situation. Instinct and experience kicked into overdrive as I burst out the cabin beating my chest and yelling at the top of my voice, “Whoa bear, whoa bear”…hardly vocabulary or tone to scare a small child let alone one of the most fearsome creatures on the planet. This could explain his rather dismissive look in my direction – in fact far from scaring him off he actually made an approach to the boat.
Thankfully Rob was on hand and after letting out a couple of bear flares the bear decided enough was enough – either the smell that had attracted him had proved a miserable let down or the fare on offer just wasn’t worth the bother. Either way he made tracks up the hill and away from an ashen looking Dave and Mark. They will no doubt tell you how they were stripped and ready for combat! As the bear left he turned and gave us one final burning glare, a gentle reminder (as if we needed it) that this was in fact his domain and we were little more than visitors.

Robert of Ottawa
August 7, 2011 3:50 pm

I recall the British Top Gear car program DROVE to the magnetic North pole, in a famous episode that can be followed here:

The magnetic North pole is soooo ho-hum. How about the REAL north pole?

Robert of Ottawa
August 7, 2011 3:54 pm

Ric Werme August 4, 2011 at 5:45 am
This IS satire, right?

Robert of Ottawa
August 7, 2011 4:01 pm

Roger Knights August 2, 2011 at 3:13 am
Daly was the first to publicly raise concerns about the AGW scam. I salute him. Perhaps we can create a DALY prize for those who fight for scientific integrity, applicable to any scientific field. It must not be issued every year, but only in exceptional cases; and the reasons for issuance must be clearly stated. Rather like the opposite of the Ignoble Prize.

Brian H
August 7, 2011 5:03 pm

Presciently, I commented on their blog page some days ago:
“Davy Jones awaits … His growlers are filing their teeth. “

Brian H
August 7, 2011 5:04 pm

P.S.
growler: n., A small iceberg or ice floe just large enough to be hazardous for shipping.

Tom in Florida
August 7, 2011 5:07 pm

This is a bogus publicity stunt. Here is an exchange I had with the crew a few days ago on their web site:
Tom in Florida said:
“Got to agree wit Brian H, you are not really rowing to the pole. But good luck and good health in your activities.”
The_crew said:
“Hi Tom – please check the website ‘route’ section and you’ll see our proposed expedition path. In short we’re trying to get to the Mag N.Pole as certified in 1996 by our leader Jock Wishart…and in so doing create a piece of maritime history.
Thank you for your message and wishes of support.”
Tom in Florida said:
“I understand your route however when you say you are going to the Mag N Pole you should go where it is now not where it was 15 years ago that’s all.”
Their excuse is that they are going to where the MNP was certified in 1996. Yet they name their adventure “Rowing to the Pole”. A blatant lie.

TimC
August 8, 2011 11:49 pm

Progress on this spoof trip is exactly as predicted – see the following, courtesy of Tom Nelson:

Brian H
August 9, 2011 10:06 am

Interesting “rowing” in that video. A 200 Hp. Merc?
😉

Fattyboomboom
August 11, 2011 4:30 am

Nay sayers, armchair critics, moaners of the modern day! The expedition was conceived before a sponsor was found – not a publicity stunt. The last time the NMP was certified correctly was in 96. Current position is an estimation – either way – does it really matter? The boat is designed to be pulled over ice. Why the negativity? These guys seem to have prepared and trained for years and it looks like a great adventure! A whole web page devoted to criticising something that does no harm at all! I admire their endeavour and commitment, and quite frankly find this criticism remarkable! Hope you all don’t criticise the free will and ambition of the younger generations you know!

Zac
August 11, 2011 2:47 pm

Fattyboomboom . I don’t think anyone is denying these lads an adventure, it is what most young males need to do and good luck to them. I wish I could be there too.
But disguising this jolly as science is what most object to. They are trying to row to a spot on the Earth which is clearly not the top of the world and a place that the British Navy were sailing around in the 1850s during the Arctic summer.
They are not even straying into the Arctic Ocean proper. Let’s hope the BBC does not fall for this scam.

j fisk
August 26, 2011 6:06 am

NOTE: They have made it! However the resulting BBC media report failed to mention that the magnetic pole is not the same as the geographic pole or that the point they rowed to was the 1996 magnetic pole hundreds of miles away from todays pole.

Chas P
August 30, 2011 3:42 pm

Amazing these lads actually made it and only had to haul the boat over the last two miles of ice. Not bad out of a total distance of 450 miles. Clearly good preparation an excellent crew and a bit of British drive go a long way. An incredable achievement and it is great to see it has stimulated some interesting discussions on this website (plus a massive response in the wider press) on climate change and the ice situation in the area. A great bit of publicity for further investigations into our planet’s climate (changing or otherwise). It is a shame however to see so many negative comments mainly restricted to this website. Good on the lads for achieving something incredable, I feel utterly humbled sat in my warm home on my computer. I hope more people are inspired to go out and see the wider world for what it is as a result of this expedition.

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