Quote of the Week:
It is scientists, not sceptics, who are most willing to consider explanations that conflict with their own. And far from quashing dissent, it is the scientists, not the sceptics, who do most to acknowledge gaps in their studies and point out the limitations of their data…’ Editorial, Nature Magazine, Jul 28, 2011.
Number of the Week: 54.5
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Videos from the Sixth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC) sponsored by Heartland Institute are available on the web. Go to:
Quote of the Week: The quote of the week appeared in an editorial in Nature severely criticizing those who challenge the orthodoxy and the recently held International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC). The quote is particularly rich because Nature published the famous hockey-stick by Michael Mann which included “Mann’s Nature trick” – eliminating data that contradicted the central claim. The more recent tree ring data diverged significantly from thermometer data, thus calling into question the validity of using tree rings to estimate historic temperatures. These offending data were clipped. The article must be retracted. Please see Article # 1 and articles referenced under “ICCC.”
ICCC: The attack by Nature on those who challenge the orthodoxy and the ICCC sponsored by Heartland Institute was soundly rebutted by Heartland President Joe Bast. Please see articles referenced under “ICCC.”
Number of the Week: 54.5 mpg. With great fanfare, the number of the week was announced by the US President, taking time from the critical deficit ceiling issue. By 2025, 54.5 miles per gallon shall be the average mileage of automobiles sold in the US by a manufacturer. The number was agreed to by the White House, EPA, Department of Transportation, California Air Resources Board, several major automobile manufacturers, environmentalists, etc. All the major players were represented except one – the American public – the consumer who is expected to buy the automobiles manufactured under this standard.
A quick look at the costs of automobiles on web sites, such as one by US News, gives examples of the impracticality of thinking displayed by this announcement. The vaunted Toyota Prius has an invoice price of $22,108 plus but gets only 51 mpg city and 48 mpg highway – it does not qualify under the proposed standards. Comparing apples to apples, the low cost 2012 Honda Civic has an invoice of $14,388 plus and gets 28 city and 36 highway. The hybrid version gets 44 city and 44 highway but costs 53% more with an invoice starting at $22,134. A low cost SUV, Ford Escape, gets 23 city and 28 highway with an invoice of $20,120; the hybrid version has an invoice of $29,997, or 49% more, and gets 30 city and 27 highway. Frequently, hybrids get greater mileage in the city than on the highway. The regulations are orientated for the urban public and severely punish the suburban and rural public.
What is clear is that the administration is demanding the American public bends to its will and buys electric automobiles that have yet to prove their worth at significantly higher prices than gasoline automobiles. Electric vehicles have a limited range, and those employing gasoline engines do not get the mileage that is proposed. By claiming these standards will save households money, the administration continues the mantra that by forcing the public to spend much more money for energy and transportation, the public will save money.
The President has promised that the Federal government will buy many of these new, expensive automobiles, as if Washington does not recognize there are unemployment and revenue problems. Please see articles referenced under “Subsidies and Mandates Forever.”
EPA continues its highly questionable expansion of regulatory powers based on dubious claims of public health. Even the National Academy of Sciences has warned the EPA science committee that EPA must improve on its science or face scientific irrelevance. However, it is uncertain that scientific relevance is important to the leadership of the EPA.
Reports this week indicate that, for political purposes, EPA adjusted its rules on cross state emissions it announced last week. At the last minute, many east coast states that supported the president in the last election were excluded from the rules. Texas, which certainly does not support the administration, was suddenly included. Apparently, EPA considers premature deaths, heart attacks, and asthma, which it used to justify the regulations, are a function of state political boundaries.
EPA announced that it is considering employing the Clean Air Act to regulate drilling wells for oil and natural gas extraction using hydraulic fracturing “fracking.” Drilling wells for oil started in 1859. Hydraulic fracking techniques have existed for over 60 years. Recent advances in these techniques permit a rapid development of oil and gas reserves that were previously uneconomical to extract. No doubt, affordable energy alarms this administration and EPA, so EPA must regulate it under the guise of public health, no matter how scientifically irrelevant the guise is. Please see Article # 2 and articles referenced under “EPA and other Regulators on the March.”
Australia: Although it is winter down-under, things are heating up. The government just released 340 pages of legislation to enact its proclaimed simple tax on carbon – a stunning contradiction of terms in language, logic, and science. The general population is not taking these new taxes lightly. Based on reports, a peaceful rebellion is occurring. From all parts of the island continent eleven convoys are organizing to drive to the capitol city and demand a new election. The convoys are scheduled to arrive on August 22. Please see articles under “Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes.”
Models and Observations: This week, an UAH press release announced the publication of a new study by Roy Spencer and Danny Braswell estimating the extent of energy lost to space with a warming of the earth.
The new study employs an innovative lagged model, that is, one that incorporates time delays, thereby estimating energy loss over time during periods of warming. The model is adjusted in order to explain the temperature data from the Hadley Climate Research Unit in Great Britain and observations from the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments on the Terra satellite over the period 2000 to 2011. During this period there was no major warming trend but there were periods of warming and cooling.
Spencer’s model suggests that, in any warming period, the loss of energy to outer space starts earlier than the IPCC models consider. Consequently, the total loss of energy to outer space is significantly greater than that projected by the IPCC models. This finding is consistent with the observations. The new model, far simpler than the ones used by the IPCC, better explains the warming or lack thereof during the period of 2000 to 2011, than the IPCC models.
The model explanations are not definitive and are open to interpretation and testing. But they suggest there are far more powerful natural influences on temperature than human CO2 emissions and other variables considered by the IPCC and its models.
Of course, the global warming community re-acted as may be expected. Kevin Trenberth, a lead author of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) of the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report (AR4), declared “I cannot believe it got published!” Spencer’s retort on his blog is worth noting. Please see the press release, Article # 4, and the referenced articles under “Models v. Observations.”
For the numbered articles below please see: www.sepp.org.
1. Scientific Casualties of the IPCC Hockey Stick Fiasco
By Tim Ball, Climate Change Dispatch, Jul 24, 2011 [H/t ICECAP]
2. A Tale of Two Shale States
Pennsylvania’s gain vs. New York’s missed opportunity.
Editorial, WSJ, Jul 26, 2011
3. Why are lawyers arguing climate science?
By Charles Battig, VA-SEEE, Letter, Richmond Times-Dispatch, Jul 16, 2011
4. Climate models get energy balance wrong, make too hot forecasts of global warming
By Roy Spencer & Phillip Gentry, Press Release, UAH, Jul 26, 2011 [H/t ICECAP]
“Not only does the atmosphere release more energy than previously thought, it starts releasing it earlier in a warming cycle.”
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Osborn: “I don’t have any core measurement data and therefore have non to give out!”
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Jul 25, 2011
McIntyre: “This is my opinion and, if someone can provide an alternative explanation of his statements that does not involve lying, I’ll willingly consider the explanation, apologize and amend the post.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Green agenda has parallels with excesses of communism
Herald Sun, July 28, 2011 [H/t Marc Morano, Climate Depot]
[SEPP Comment: About two speeches one by Czech President Vaclav Klaus, the other by Greens senator Christine Milner announcing a government investigation against those in the Australian media who are biased against action on climate change (carbon taxes).]
Malcolm Turnbull’s climate politics
Which “science” and which “morality”, Malcolm?
By Bob Carter, Quadrant, AU, Jul 25, 2011
We Get What We Pay For With Disastrous Climate Science
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Jul. 26 2011
Climate change suspect must be given a fair trial
GOVERNMENTS across the world have paid billions to find links between carbon dioxide and the climate, but very little to find the opposite, and that’s a problem.
By Joanne Nova, The Australian, Jul 30, 2011
Climate Witchcraft and Post-Normal Science
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Jul 29, 2011
[SEPP Comment: Post normal science – twisting scientific research and standards to serve personal political goals.]
Indian study shows climate change is probably caused by natural factors
By Kelvin Kemm, Engineering News, Jul 29, 2011 [H/t ICECAP]
Defenders of the Orthodoxy
Climate Change Debunked? Not So Fast
Stephanie Pappas, LiveScience Senior WriterDate: 28 July 2011 Time: 07:14 PM ET
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Comments On The Article “Stratospheric Pollution Helps Slow Global Warming” By David Biello
By Roger Pielke, Sr, Pielke Climate Science, Jul 25, 2011 [H/t ICECAP]
Archaea — An Overlooked Source Of Greenhouse Gas:
By David Whitehouse, The Observatory, Jul 29, 2011
[SEPP Comment: EPA claims nitrous oxide emissions are a cause of asthma.]
Can Prof Rajendra Pachauri really survive ‘Glaciergate’?
The head of the UN panel on climate change, Prof Rajendra Pachauri, is still adamant that one famously exaggerated report should not cost him his job.
By Peter Stanford, Telegraph, UK, Jul 26, 2011
[SEPP Comment: It was not only one exaggerated report, but many.]
Why Most Forbes Readers Know More About Global Warming than Most Climate Scientists
By William Pentland, Forbes, Jul. 28 2011
[SEPP Comment: Trivial – the social cost of carbon is a ludicrous concept fit for bureaucrats. The discount rate applied is arguing about the number of angels dancing on the head of a pin.]
Sci/tech MPs want peer review, not pal review
UK science publishing not exactly scientific
By Andrew Orlowski, A Register, Jul 29, 2011 [H/t GWPF]
Questioning the European Green
Some lessons Washington could learn from London commentators
By: Ron Arnold, Washington Examiner, Jul 28, 2011
Official Price Estimates Dubious: ‘DECC Has Massaged Green Energy Costs’
Britain’s policies to curb emissions and spur investment into nuclear and wind to secure power supplies may raise electricity prices for factories by as much as 58 percent by 2030, according to a government study.
By Catherine Airlie, Bloomberg, Jul 29, 2011
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Climate Change Adaptation: Aligning Funding with Strategic Priorities
GAO-11-876T July 28, 2011 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Highlights Page (PDF) Full Report (PDF, 18 pages)
[SEPP Comment: Integrate invalid projections from falsified models as the standard of planning for the entire nation.]
Seeking a Common Ground
“Building Trust” and FOI Refusals
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Jul 23, 2011
“If there were any adult supervision in the climate community, it would start, not with polysyllabic ruminations about climate communications, but with practical measures to stop pointlessly counterproductive conduct by members of the community.”
Heartland Replies to Nature
By Joseph Bast, Heartland Institute, Jul 28, 2011
Heart of the matter
The Heartland Institute’s climate conference reveals the motives of global-warming skeptics
Editorial, Nature, Jul 28, 2011
Climate-change politics: The sceptic meets his match
Joe Bast and his libertarian think tank are a major force among climate sceptics – but they just can’t win the battle over science.
By Jeff Tollefson, Nature Magazine, Jul 27, 2011
Finding common ground with climate-change contrarians
Scott Denning, Colorado State University, UCAR Mag, Jul 27, 2011
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate?
Why we should give the cold shoulder to a BBC Trust Review that argues the broadcaster should ignore global-warming ‘deniers’
By David Rose, Daily Mail, UK, Jul 24, 2011
Steve Jones tells the BBC: don’t give ‘denialists’ so much air-time
In his report for the BBC Trust, Steve Jones actually attacks the BBC for having too little global-warming bias.
By Christopher Booker, Telegraph, UK, Jul 23, 2011
Models v. Observations
On the Misdiagnosis of Climate Feedbacks from Variations in Earth’s Radiant Energy Balance
Roy W. Spencer and William D. Braswell, Journal of Remote Sensing,
Fallout from Our Paper: The Empire Strikes Back
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, July 29th, 2011
New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism
By James Taylor, Forbes, Jul 27, 2011 [H/t Roger Cohen]
[SEPP Comment: Somewhat over the top.]
Additional Information On The “Ocean’s Missing Heat” By Katsman and van Oldenborgh 2011
By Roger Pielke, Sr, Pielke Climate Science, Jul 29 2011
If the “question cannot be answered using observations alone”, how can it be stated that “When compared to the available observations, the model describes the ocean temperature rise and variability well”? This is a circular argument. Models themselves are hypotheses, and the more accurate statement by the authors would be that the available observations do not falsify the model as replicating reality.
State-of-the-Art Climate Models and Extreme Meteorological Events and Consequences
Reviewed by Sherwood, Craig, and Keith Idso, CO2 Science, Volume 14, Number 30: 27 July 2011 [H/t SPPI]
[SEPP Comment: IPCC author Trenberth states the models do not project precipitation correctly. Should they be trusted for temperature?]
Modeled Ocean Temperatures from 1880 through 2010
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jul 22, 2011
The “great dying of thermometers” – helping GISS find the undead thermometers, complete with code
By Walter Dnes, WUWT, Jul 24, 2011
[SEPP Comment: Canadian weather stations continue to report data even though NASA-GISS dropped them from its data base without explanation. NASA-GISS projects the readings from far away stations.]
Sheep study confirms a premise of McIntyre & McKittrick 05
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, July 27, 2011
[SEPP Comment: Additional reason why tree rings may not be a good proxy for temperatures. Leibig’s Law of the Minimum: plant growth is controlled by the most scarce resource available; not by the total of resources available.].
2011 Temperature Watch
By Patrick Michaels, World Climate Report, Jul 25, 2011
Canadian scientists discover new clues to rapid Arctic ice melt
By Bob Weber, the Canadian Press, Jul 28, 2011 [H/t Mark Duchamp]
Antarctic ice – more accurate estimates
By Verity Jones @ Digging In The Clay, WUWT, Jul 27, 2011
Researchers Provide Detailed Picture of Ice Loss Following Collapse of Antarctic Ice Shelves
By Staff Writers, SPX, Jul 26, 2011
The Political Games Continue
GOP spending bill would nix international climate aid
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Jul 26, 2011
[SEPP Comment: Cutting off funds for IPCC dreams.]
EPA’s funding facing rollback
Obama threatens to veto measure
By Paige Winfield Cunningham, Washington Times, Jul 25, 2011
[SEPP Comment: Long overdue.]
House Republicans call on EPA chief to testify on smog rules
By Andrew Restuccia, The Hill, Jul 28, 2011
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
The Convoy of no confidence is amassing towards Canberra
By Joanne Nova, Her Blog, On July 28, 201
Breaking Australian Carbon Tax Legislation Released
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jul 28, 2011
[SEPP Comment: Learning from the 2009 – 2010 US Congress, apparently the simple tax took 340 pages of legislation – benefiting special interests.]
A Slow Start for the for Carbon Credit Market
By Valerie Volcovici, NYT, Jul 25, 2011
[SEPP Comment: Blame the U.S. for the bad market.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Obama tightens fuel-economy standards
By Andrew Restuccia, The Hill, 07/29/11 11:39 AM ET
Carmakers Back Strict New Rules for Gas Mileage
By Bill Vlasic, NYT, Jul 28, 2011
Payne: Obama’s CAFE fairy tale
By Henry Payne, The Michigan View.com, Jul 29, 2011
Higher fuel standards mean higher death toll
Editorial, Washington Examiner, Jul 28, 2011
Federal ‘Clean Energy’ Loan Guarantees: Crazy Dollars for Bubble Jobs
By Vance Ginn, Master Resource, July 28, 2011
Jacking up your electric bill
More regulations on industry will hurt the flickering economy
Editorial, Washington Times, Jul 27, 2011
“Either an RES or CES would also raise the average cost of generating electricity in the United States because, in the absence of the standard, regulators and generators would generally choose the lowest-cost method of producing electricity.”
EPA and other Regulators on the March
National Academy of Sciences warns EPA to get its science straight or risk irrelevance
By Bryan Preston, Pajamas Media, Jul 12, 2011
Obama’s EPA adds Texas to new cross state emissions rule at the last minute
By Bryan Preston, Pajamas Media, Jul 8, 2011
[SEPP Comment: Political games of rewarding friends and punishing enemies in the name of public health.]
Is EPA’s true purpose protecting the environment or shutting down industry?
By Bryan Shaw, Washington Examiner, Jul 23, 2011
EPA proposes air pollution standards for ‘fracking’
By Andrew Restuccia, The Hill, Jul 28, 2011
[SEPP Comment: It was only a matter of time. The claimed win-win is as false as the claim of asthma attacks and premature deaths resulting from fracking. EPA must be compelled to produce the science justifying such claims.]
EPA’s air-quality overkill
Costly new air-quality standards are based on suspect statistics
By Steve Milloy, Washington Times, Thursday 28, 2011
EPA Delays Ozone Standard Reconsideration for Fourth Time
By Sonal Patel, Power News, Jul 27, 2011
[SEPP Comment: Apparently some are fighting EPA control of economic development throughout the nation.]
FERC Order Aims to Remove Barriers to Transmission Development
By Staff Writers, POWERnews, Jul 27, 2011
[SEPP Comment: Earlier reports suggested that FERC will abandon the principle that beneficiaries pay.]
Nuclear Fears & Responses
The risks of radiation
By Jan Willem Nienhuys, European Energy Review, Jul 25, 2011
[SEPP Comment: A lengthy article discussing radiation risks.]
Nuclear stress tests begin for Japan
By Staff Writers, World Nuclear News, 25 July 2011
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Japan to test-drill for seabed ‘burning ice’: Nikkei
By Staff Writers, AFP, Jul 25, 2011
Administration Control of Fossil Fuels
Keystone versus green Keynesianism
Keystone jobs should matter more to Obama than green theology
By Peter Forster, Financial Post, Jul 26, 2011
House passes bill to force Obama decision on Canada-Texas pipeline
By Andrew Restuccia, The Hill, Jul 26, 2011
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy
Rotten Wind in the State of Denmark
Denmark is yet another country that has made wind power a hallmark of its energy policy. But are the lofty claims about Danish wind true? No.
By Kenneth Green, The American, Jul 18, 2011 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: Part of a series on fail of wind power in Europe.]
Energy Fact of the Week: China’s Soaring ‘Clean’ Energy Sector?
By Steven F. Hayward, Enterprise Blog, Jul 27, 2011
[SEPP Comment: A great graph for those who claim China is racing against the west to build alternative energy sources.]
T. Boone’s Windy Misadventure And the Global Backlash Against Wind Energy
By Robert Bryce , Energy Tribune, Jul. 28, 2011 [H/t GWPF]
“I’m not going to have the windmills on my ranch,” Pickens declared. “They’re ugly.”
Rhetoric on renewables does not match reality
By Jon Ralston, Las Vegas Sun, Jul 24, 2011 [H/t Cooler Heads Digest]
“To achieve long-term economic and environmental benefits – to make Nevada a cleaner state and create an energy-exporting economy – people are going to have to accept an initial hit on rates.” [SEPP Comment: What do the people get in return – additional hits?]
Solar industry on the rise
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jul 28, 2011
“Solar energy is creating more jobs per megawatt than any other energy source.” [SEPP Comment: The genius of American prosperity is delivering more for ever lower costs. Increasing costs will result in households paying more, reducing their disposable income.]
Regulatory hurdles hinder biofuels market
By Phil Ciciora, Business and Law Editor
Champaign IL (SPX) Jul 26, 2011
Work to Begin on DOE-Backed Carbon Sequestration Demonstration in Montana
By Staff Writers, POWERnews, Jul 27, 2011
Gov. Brown pushes 12-gigawatt clean-power goal
California should get that much electricity from local clean power sources – such as rooftop solar panels, small wind turbines and fuel cells – by 2020, he says, but is short on details about how.
By Tiffany Hsu, Los Angeles Times, July 26, 2011
Mitchell, Reilly Tout Ruinous Calif. Auto Policy
By Marlo Lewis Cooler Heads, July 28, 2011
Wind farms multiply, fueling clashes with nearby residents
Demand for clean energy has led to a wind turbine building boom. But many living in their shadow decry the electricity generating projects as pesky eyesores.
By Tiffany Hsu, Los Angeles Times, July 24, 2011
Electric cars about to cost more in California
The state has run out of the $5,000 rebates it was giving drivers who bought all-electric vehicles such as the Nissan Leaf and Tesla Roadster. Also, prices for the Nissan Leaf are going up.
By Jerry Hirsch, LA Times, Jul 21, 2011
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see
Tropical Cuba has Excess Winter Deaths from Heart & Cerebrovascular Diseases
Reference: Marie, G.C., González, R.T. and Palanco, I.M. 2009. Seasonal Variation in mortality for five main death causes. Cuba, 1996-2006. Internet Journal of Epidemiology 6 (2), available at www.ispub.com.
Climate Change and Marine Productivity
Reference: Chavez, F.P., Messie, M. and Pennington, J.T. 2011. Marine primary production in relation to climate variability and change. Annual Review of Marine Science 3: 227-260.
Nine Years of Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Relations in the Duke Forest FACE Study
Reference: Lichter, J., Billings, S.A., Ziegler, S.E., Gaindh, D., Ryals, R., Finzi, A.C., Jackson, R.B., Stemmler, E.A. and Schlesinger, W.H. 2008. Soil carbon sequestration in a pine forest after 9 years of atmospheric CO2 enrichment. Global Change Biology 14: 2910-2922.
No Long-Term Trends in Southwestern United States Drought
Reference: McCabe, G.J., Legates, D.R. and Lins, H.F. 2010. Variability and trends in dry day frequency and dry event length in the southwestern United States. Journal of Geophysical Research 115: D07108, doi:10.1029/2009JD012866.
By Paul Chesser, American Spectator, Jul 27, 2011
Other Scientific News
Bacteria: Blame them for the rain?
By Eryn Brown, Los Angeles Times
May 26, 2011, 12:25 p.m.
Wave power can drive intense heat of Sun
By Staff Writers, SPX, Jul 28, 2011
SDO Spots Extra Energy in the Solar Corona
By Karen C. Fox for NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, SPX Jul 28, 2011
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Climate change ‘may make truffles a German delicacy’
By Staff Writers, AFP, Jul 20, 2011
“Nevertheless, he noted that further studies were required, citing ‘enormous scientific, economic, and gastronomic importance.'”
Climate-change-induced wildfires may alter Yellowstone forests
By Staff Writers, SPX, Jul 29, 2011
Has warming put ‘Dirty Dozen’ pollutants back in the saddle?
By Staff Writers, AFP, Jul 24, 2011
PLEASE NOTE: The complete TWTW, including the full text of the numbered articles, can be downloaded in an easily printable form at this web site: http://www.sepp.org/the-week-that-was.cfm…