Once again, I’m going to give WUWT readers an opportunity to make a forecast for submission, based on voting. See the poll at the end.
I’ll run this poll each month in the week before the deadline, and we’ll see how we do as the minimum approaches. The value used by ARCUS is the NSIDC value as they say here:
The sea ice monthly extent for September 2010 was 4.9 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates.
So don’t be using the JAXA graph to forecast minimums, though it it useful for determining short term trends as it is more responsive than the NSDIC graph below, which is averaged.
Here’s the latest JAXA graph: 
JAXA AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent -15% or greater – click to enlarge
On May 30th I submitted the results of the first poll to ARCUS to be included in their June Outlook, as shown below:
Download High Resolution Version of Figure 1.
WUWT is second highest, at 5.5 million sq km. Notably missing this year is “Wilson”, who in the last two years started out with impossibly low values such as 1 million sq km. I’ll repeat the poll next week in preparation for the August Outlook. In the meantime, check the WUWT Sea Ice Page for the latest.
and here is the July results, WUWT is still second highest, but down to 5.1:
Download High Resolution Version of Figure 1.
Here’s the poll for the ARCUS August outlook, it will run until July 31st at midnight PST.
Oh oh. Prominently everywhere:
“New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism
NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed.”
http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-global-warming-alarmism-192334971.html
OT but we finally have caught one red handed fraud its on Mainstream now
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hUKv9uOezA2dlICEalRbn4XIp_Dw?docId=9a1016fa5ac94f948dc514ce6ce4abd3
The next are Mann, Jones, Briffa et al.
Dave A
Just looking forward to the yearly shrieking “We’re all doomed – look at the ice it’s all melting – you’re an idiot big oil funded denier” to come to an end .
Between 2010 and 2008 firmly inside the extreme of 2007 and about the size of the maximum extent of the Roman Empire around 117AD
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Empire
5,000,000 km2
If you look at JAXA http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e it has been firming up in the last few days
No harm in increasing your vocab. I had no idea what a shill was until until I could see what was unfolding in my Country (UK) in the name of the then named Man Made Global Warming
Yours from the Country that leads the battle against the non-existent
Dave
Hm, 4.9 last year, so I put in a 4.9 – 5.0. A wee bit more, but I don’t expect it to manage too much. Do the people voting for way over 5 know something the rest of us don’t about the arrival of the next ice age? 😉
“5.0 to 5.1 Million km2 17.39% (96 votes)”
The scientific consensus has spoken. It is now written in stone, anyone who disagrees, is a denier. Ask any ‘climate scientist’, this is the new scientific method in twenty-first century America.
4.6 million km2 +/- 1million km2 I mean I like the Grant Foster method of prediction.
It is equivalent to predicting the Boston Red Sox will finish 3rd in the AL East +/- 2 places.
Actual prediction 4.8-4.9
Substantially less than last year and no change from my original estimate of 4.675
Sea ice extent guessing makes for an interesting game, but doesn’t really capture the full picture of what’s happening– sea ice volume is much better for really seeing what’s happening. as extent itself can be so much governed by the weather. But for the record, 2011 should give 2007’s record low a good run for the money, especially if strong dipole anomaly and a negative AO index set up in August as it looks like they could. If these persist for a long period in August, we could see 2011 easily blow away 2007 for the lowest extent come September.
But, FWIW, minimum extent looks to be heading to somewhere around 4.25 million sq. km + or – .25 million sq. km. (so it will be somewhere in the range of 4.0 to 4.5 million sq. km) This range gives the full extent of the weather variability causing divergence and compaction during those last few weeks of melt when the low will be set.
But again, the more important metric is really sea ice volume, as that gives us a better idea of the true health of the sea ice, and of course, the chart and trendline for Arctic sea ice volume looks very negative indeed. 2011 will seasily beat out 2007 for the lowest volume of ice in the Arctic in modern times.
richard verney says:
July 28, 2011 at 3:19 am
The planet appears to be cooling
____
Here we go again…please cite your data and the time frame with beginning and end points. The planet may not be warming as it was in the 1980-2000 time frame, but I don’t see any actual cooling going on from the data either…or when you say “appears to be” are you measuring the thermometer on your back porch between the hours of 6 p.m and midnight?
[snip – off topic, invalid email address – jove ~mod]
Gates, please define your meaning of the term “modern times”.
“Why does Hansen claim his +4 degree rise?”
This is down to the GISS data in the Arctic shows a 4c rise from the late 1960’s. (64N-83N)
Around 4.6 is my guess, but could go much lower due to the thinness of the ice above Alaska and Siberia. No higher than that and possibly a lot lower. There is still some warm water in the arctic basin continuing to melt the ice that has come in off the Atlantic in recent years. A decent recovery is still several years away-but cold water and more ice off the east coast of Greenland are an indication that the flow of warm water from the Atlantic may be ending, and it will take a few years for this trend to reach the arctic basin itself. However, till then, it could reach an irreversable point where all the ice rapidly goes in one summer despite a cooling-do not believe the ocean would refreeze, due to the fact that the open water would warm the air above it-and storms would ruffle the water up making it very difficult for the large area of open water to refreeze having unforeseen implications on the climate balance of the entire earth.
Must be right, I voted as most people; if it will not be that , measurements must be wrong
We’re tracking towards a 2007 or so repeat. The resulting albedo change resulting from moisture uptake from the now more open Arctic Ocean will spur record Snow Cover Extent numbers (check out the Rutgers SCE reports starting at yearend 2011) first in Eurasia and later in North America. The early fall albedo change will cool the polar regions and then Europe and Northern Hemisphere. Break out the snowshoes, as Gulf and Atlantic moisture sweeping into now (albedo influenced) colder air will fall, more often than not, as snow. As snow lingers on land, Sea Levels will trend downward and the “Toucan Equations” January update will likely reflect the change.
etudiant says:
July 28, 2011 at 7:18 am
There is a need for a more explicit recognition of the role of wind and current driven flows in determining the surface ice extent.
Ditto for meltwater ponds.
The Arctic ice that matters 80N+ has had warm (anomaly positive) temperatures during last Winter and Spring generally, so not much of a suprise to see low ice levels since. This was mainly due to negative AO persisting during the months promoting high pressure. Since especially summer temperatures have remained around normal for the time year. (DMI, link below also supports this)
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/synNNWWarctis.gif
While there is little 1st year ice left things should slow down especially with positive AO recently.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
The long term forecast is for more of the same with similar AO values hovering around zero. This forecast should then predict less settled weather continuing in the Arctic 80N+ with occasional low pressure systems and troughs. (some will fall as snow, some light rain/drizzle)
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/arcisoTTPPWW.gif
Likely melting of ice will slow down for at least the next 2 weeks with little wind, despite small low pressure systems developing. With recent La Nina and cooling of North Atlantic SST’s over recent weeks this should slow down further melting during September.
My forecast is for Arctic ice to recover later in summer and finish a little higher than last year. (5.0-5.1 million km2) Weather conditions in future and temperatures of ocean circulating from the North Atlantic towards the Arctic must be considered to even have a decent guess.
The resolution of the poll is centered on 5.0, with 0.1 bands from 4.5 to 5.5 and 0.5 bands at 5.5-6.0 & 4.0-4.5. The poll results are also centered near 5.0.
I’m curious, on a purely mathematical basis, how the structure of the poll might affect the results. Since we’re currently at about 0.45 below this time last year, a prediction of 0.45 below last year’s minimum would seem a sort-of default prediction (i.e. ~4.4). Since that specific value isn’t even available in the poll, some precision is lost.
It is likely that the blob of 100 degree air, now hovering over the Atlantic, will warm those waters sufficiently to influence the currents taking the now even warmer water, into the Arctic, and providing the final push for the increased IceCap melt. I’m sure most readers here see the implications!!!
BTW Polling or consensus activity does not make science. Hard, unadjusted data has no substitute!!!
Matt G .
Do you accept all the physics in weather models?
Okay kids, we might as well have fun predicting melting ice while we can because we’re gonna reach a tipping point and you know what that means…. it’s all gonna evaporate!
I hope it goes down to between 3 and 4 million km2 for next few decades and opens a reliable sea lane thru the northwest passage every summer. Can you imagine what a boon that would be to shipping. 4.5
Pamela Gray says:
July 28, 2011 at 12:15 pm
Gates, please define your meaning of the term “modern times”.
_____
Post-industrial revolution…approximately 1750 onward. We can be pretty confident that we are seeing the lowest Arctic Sea extents, areas, and volumes in at least the past 800 year, and perhaps longer, based on comprehensive research such as this:
http://bprc.osu.edu/geo/publications/polyak_etal_seaice_QSR_10.pdf
steven mosher says:
July 28, 2011 at 2:13 pm
Matt G .
Do you accept all the physics in weather models?
How could anyone model chaos accurately? More to the point they are not perfect, but usually give a good indication for the same day. (eg+6hr,+12hr, +18hr) The observed temperatures available above 83N+used for near surface and calculating observed 850mb temperatures near there, reflect the Arctic better than GISS infill IMO. Regular observations show large increasing and changing temperatures during the late spring and summer <83N. Above 83N these remain stable due to melting ice and snow/ice over a cold ocean reflecting it's angle from the weak sun's rays. This results in observed temperatures always around 0c to 3c in mid-summer. This does not reflect the trends in temperature <83N in a different environment.
I moved down from 5.1 to 4.9.
Yep, here: https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=744206