Once again, I’m going to give WUWT readers an opportunity to make a forecast for submission, based on voting. See the poll at the end.
I’ll run this poll each month in the week before the deadline, and we’ll see how we do as the minimum approaches. The value used by ARCUS is the NSIDC value as they say here:
The sea ice monthly extent for September 2010 was 4.9 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates.
So don’t be using the JAXA graph to forecast minimums, though it it useful for determining short term trends as it is more responsive than the NSDIC graph below, which is averaged.
Here’s the latest JAXA graph: 
JAXA AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent -15% or greater – click to enlarge
On May 30th I submitted the results of the first poll to ARCUS to be included in their June Outlook, as shown below:
Download High Resolution Version of Figure 1.
WUWT is second highest, at 5.5 million sq km. Notably missing this year is “Wilson”, who in the last two years started out with impossibly low values such as 1 million sq km. I’ll repeat the poll next week in preparation for the August Outlook. In the meantime, check the WUWT Sea Ice Page for the latest.
and here is the July results, WUWT is still second highest, but down to 5.1:
Download High Resolution Version of Figure 1.
Here’s the poll for the ARCUS August outlook, it will run until July 31st at midnight PST.
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About 4.964837, give or take the calving ice floes and the measurement within +/- 5.4682 seconds from mean observation time.
Glenn probably is right but I think 4.8-4.9
Bob, I bid 1 dollar.
Wait, wrong game. Gimme a day or two while I put together my executive decision program, or more commonly known as a dart board.
OT but again
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V14/N30/EDIT.php
Major backflip by Trenberth this might convince the Australian government to give up someone send this story to the Australian please. Hes basically said that none of the models can predict AGW so maybe lets do nothing until we are sure
On the basis of the current trend there is NO WAY its gonna melt even close to 2007
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
So AGW’ers reality check sorry, try next year LOL
There is a need for a more explicit recognition of the role of wind and current driven flows in determining the surface ice extent.
The animation published here some time ago showing the flushing of the sea ice through the Fram Strait made it very clear that temperature was only one factor. Yet the discussion seems to remain fixated on the simplistic ‘reduced ice extent therefore higher temperature’ equation.
A more realistic model, to tease out the relative contributions of temperature, wind, currents and perhaps insolation/cloud cover, would be a real contribution.
.
4.35 million sq km. The current trend of a slowed melting rate is being caused by a short lived move of the AO to a minimal positive state. Once it goes negative again in the next week, the melt will increase again and challenge 2007 for a minimum.
I think around 5.0. And it hovers around the minimum for another 2-7 years. Most of the ice loss is connected to intrusions of Atlantic water melting the Barents and Kara Sea ice in the east. Those influxes take about 14 years to circulate through the Arctic. Also the lack of ice in the Barents will continue to keep a low pressure that draws warm air in a positive feedback that delays ice formation there. However as the NAO goes negative and that trend continues, west Greenland will warm but east Greenland cools and less warm water will be pumped into the Arctic. The cooling of west Greenland may slow the ice export through the Fram. The 2007 melt was more a function of an influx of warm water into the Chukchi, but the inflow of of water through the Bering Strait is cooling, and the PDO going negative, which will continue to decrease the warm Pacific input. However the present lack of ice in the Chukchi allows the winds to mix the water more deeply and broadly(ice prevents that mixing) bring up warmer Pacific waters to the surface which creates another positive feedback of continued mixing that will keep the western arctic with low ice extent until the ventilation of the warm waters is exhausted. As the Arctic Oscillation goes negative if it continues, it slows down the ice export as well as increases multiyear ice formation, but due to convergence and compression of ice that won’t translate into greater ice extent for a few more years. If the trend in oscillations continues we can expect a rather sudden increase in ice within the next few years.
Fram Strait continues to have its doors shut or only partly ajar. Melting is occurring in place at the edges of of the center whirl pool of ice, and air temps as well as SST’s under the ice are spot on the average range this time of year. The AO atmospheric pressure metric is hardly wiggling around the average (I call it the Arctic Oscillation Slumber). So I still say greater than 5.5.
5.2!
You foolish deniers! All real scientists know that the sea ice extent is going to be less than negative 2 million km2. Yes, negative!!! It will be so hot that the ice will become steam as our temperatures rise to +200. You guys can sit around with your smug anti-scientific attitude and melt while lamenting your epic wrongness. I will be laughing at you in my custom built submarine that I have mortgaged my house to make. Suckers!!!
ArCtic, not Artic
This summer saw another 2007-like “perfect storm” of sorts, with ice pushed into a warm area over the Beaufort Sea to meet a rotten, watery demise. This on the heels of the Arctic Oscillation pattern resulting in late freeze-up and low ice coverage in marginal areas like Baffin Bay. But since weather patterns seem to be changing, and since we’re mostly down to thicker multi-year ice now, I’d guess ice area will stabilize somewhere around July’s estimate. I say stick with July’s 5.1 number.
Under 4.5, the same as the first two polls, and it seems like that guess is picking up more votes this time.
The only reason I picked such a low number in the first place is that it looked to me like the freeze-up in places like Hudson’s Bay and other outlying areas lagged significantly during the winter last year. I figured the late freeze would lead to easier thawing. For the past week the extent loss has slowed, but if the winds pick up again it could really accelerate. Meanwhile the edges north of Alaska are thinning fast.
4.7-4.8
With the ice melting so fast there will probably be lots of drowned Polar bears…
…then again, maybe not.
I see Richard Black is at his uncritical best as ever over this subject /sarc
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14306781
I wonder if those clever folk have ever thought that things actually grow better the warmer it gets and thus suck up more carbon or are they that blinkered so that they can only see bad things happening. Anyway, they are still confusing weather and climate and still in denial over long term cycles. Boy are these doomsayers going to be feeling left out in the cold (harhar) in a few years time.
Pamela.
wow, still above 5.5
the LACK of melt required to hit that number would be astonishing and unprecedented.
5.5 is my bet.
RACookPE1978 says:
July 27, 2011 at 8:06 pm
“Some continue, like the national ice research center’s website, to wave their hands – so to speak – about albedo feedback and increased melting causing increased heating of the earth.”
Albedo at the pole is essentially insignificant compared to the difference between having sea ice blocking everything except conductive heat loss or not. The sun is too low in the sky most of the time in the Arctic for there to be a great difference in albedo between water and ice. Water albedo increases as the angle of incidence increases.
Ice or no ice is like the difference between having an igloo or not. It’s also why sled dogs bury themselves in snow to keep warm while they sleep. Might be counter-intuitive for some but a house made of ice will keep you warmer than no house at all. Once the ocean surface is exposed to air it can give up heat one helluva lot faster than when it’s covered with ice. So what we have is a negative feedback situation where as Arctic sea ice cover declines the earth’s capacity to vent heat to space rises. Works just like clouds. Fewer clouds allows more energy to reach the ocean which raises the evaporation rate which produces more clouds which then block energy from reaching the ocean surface. Negative feedbacks are way cool. The only positive feedback we need to worry about is snow and ice cover reaching into lower latitudes and persisting longer. That’s a positive feedback situation that’ll lead to a snowball earth if nothing stops it. We’re poised on the brink of an ending to the Holocene interglacial and a return of glaciers a mile thick covering everything north of Washington, D.C. In all probability New York City will be destroyed by ice not by a rising ocean.
steven mosher says:
July 27, 2011 at 9:45 pm
“Worse – the DMI HAS measured the temperatures at 80 north latitude every day since 1958.”
[DMI uses a model to construct the temperatures.]
Not mentioned the DMI model uses daily observed Arctic temperaures to construct it, like models do in meteorology with weather forecasting. Except not trying to predict the future, but estimate current temperatures with limited real observed Arctic data.
Here’s a related story – New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism
ForbesBy James Taylor | Forbes – 20 hrs ago
NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth’s atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future
global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide trap far less heat than alarmists have claimed.
http://news.yahoo.com/nasa-data-blow-gaping-hold-global-warming-alarmism-192334971.html
5.0-5.1 but I’m nervous. Chart looks warmista-like.
Katla Volcano might put a kink in forcasts of ice area.
http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2011/07/27icelands-feared-katla-volcano-shows-further-signs-of-eruption.htm
BUT?? cloud actions gave both Iceland and hawaii coincident “karate kicks” at 09.34 to 10.34 UTC on 28th
http://www.intelliweather.net/imagery/intelliweather/sat_worldm_640x320_img.htm
Brian says:
July 27, 2011 at 7:00 pm
lol At Global Cooling.
It’s about as likely as Jesus return.
I’m going to say 4.4-4.7
It would appear that the actual temperatures – in terms of ‘global warming’ are not ‘warmer’ at all. See the Danish temperatures here http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php or on the WUWT Sea Ice page.
What does appear to be the case is that the Rossby waves in the polar vortices are not ‘waving’ as normal. This leads to steady winds in some areas like the Fram straight and in the US a ‘locked in’ summer heat wave in the mid-West while the West has cooler than normal temperatures.