While Joe Romm squawks about record highs being “obscenely hot” over at Think-Climate Progress, there’s a quiet bit of questioning going on within NOAA about the veracity of the surface temperature measurements, particularly related to ASOS stations at airports, which have made up a significant number of recent record high temperatures in the USA in June.
Below is an extraordinary interchange between Dr. Roger Pielke Sr., and Greg Carbin, of the NOAA Storm Prediction Center.
Figure and Data Analysis Provided by Greg Carbin of NOAA
I received the e-mail below from Conrad Ziegler that alerted me to a really important analysis of siting issues with respect to surface temperature data. The relevant part of Conrad’s e-mail, and the e-mails on this figure by Greg Carbin and Richard Grumm are reproduced below (with their permission).
Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2011 08:44:32 -0500
From: Conrad Ziegler <xxxxxx>
To: pielkesr@xxxxxxCc: gregory.carbin@xxxxx, richard.grumm@xxxxxxx Conrad Ziegler <conrad.ziegler@xxxxxx>
Subject: Fwd: [Map Discussion] All-time maximum temperatures broken or tied in
June
Hello Roger!
I hope this message finds you well!
I thought you’d be interested in the correspondence below between Rich Grumm and Greg Carbin about US record high temperatures since 1950. I’ve attached Greg’s interesting figure that accompanies his message below (Greg, I hope you don’t mind my sharing this). I know you have long advocated the need for adequate siting of surface operational meteorological sensors worldwide, and have written on the subject of effects of poor siting on temperature time series. Rich’s message raises the bar so to speak…the instrumentation itself needs to be properly designed and sensors aspirated correctly. One would have hoped this was at minimum a standard thorughout the US, though reading Rich’s message I’m no longer so sure.
Best Regards,
Conrad
Following is Greg’s initial e-mail on his analysis
From: gregory.carbin@xxxxxDate: Wednesday, June 29, 2011 10:37 pm
Subject: All-time maximum temperatures broken or tied in June
To: HWT Map Discussion Listserv <discussion@xxxxxx>, SUNY
Map Listserv <map@xxxxxx>
Maps,
I was wondering how the 41 all-time max temperature records broken or tied in the U.S. during June 2011 compared to other Junes of the past. So, I wrote a script this evening to grab the all-time annual maximum temperatures that were broken or tied during the month of June, for all Junes, back to 1950. The resulting chart is attached. June 2011 has had the most all-time maxes broken or tied (16 broken/32 tied through June 29) since June 1998 when 89 all-time max temperatures where either broken (31) or tied (58). However, the month of June 1994 really bakes the cake! That’s when a total of 229 all-time max temperatures where either broken (112) or tied (117). June 1990 was also another hot one with a lot of records either tied or broken. See the chart for more details.
-Greg
Greg Carbin
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center
National Weather Center
Norman, Oklahoma 73072-7268
Richard Grumm’s of NOAA replied
From: Richard.Grumm@xxxxx Date: June 30, 2011 7:49:12 AM CDT
To: gregory.carbin@xxxx Cc: SUNY Map Listserv <map@xxxxxxx>, HWT Map Discussion
Listserv <discussion@xxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [Map Discussion] All-time maximum temperatures broken or tied in June
Greg,
Nicely done. Kind of warms the soul.
I ponder if the sensors used in ASOS massively deployed circa 1991 played some role in this, that is [a] downward trend though most of this would be COOP site data. Did we go through some program to improve those sites in the 1990s?
As for ASOS sites, if used, we had one really badly placed sensor at KMDT when we opened in State College. The ASOS was aspirated and on grass, not a roof. It ran cooler in parallel to our older unit (was it an unapirated HO83?). We did not officially began using the ASOS until AFTER your 1994 spike. Hitting 100F at KMDT has been extremely difficult since the new sensor. Being on grass and on the ground helps.
Additionally, we had 2 very warm ASOS units and I know an office not too far west of me that did. It turns out how the fans are installed is critical. One does not want to pull hot air up into the system. We had a sensor that was really warm last year and in the July heat wave (KSEG) was often an eastern US hot spot. New fans lead to local cooling.
How much of the 1980s was badly placed sensors? Did we improve COOP sites in the 1990s? How much of this was the pattern? Some of those 1980s years were hot but how much did sensors contribute to this too? Gotta find the eggs for this Duncan Hines cake mix.
Thanks
Rich
The relevant part of my reply to Conrad’s e-mail is reproduced below.
Date: Thu, 30 Jun 2011 08:20:54 -0600 (MDT)
From: Roger A Pielke Sr <pielkesr@xxxxx>
To: Conrad Ziegler <conrad.ziegler@xxxxx>
Cc: Roger A Pielke Sr. <pielkesr@cires.colorado.edu>, gregory.carbin@xxxx,
richard.grumm@xxxx Subject: Re: Fwd: [Map Discussion] All-time maximum temperatures broken or tied
in June
Hi Conrad
Thank you for sharing the information on the surface temperature measurements! I have a question and a list of some of papers on this issue below.
First, Greg/Rich – do I have your permission to post your e-mails and figure on my weblog?
Second, we have been examining the effect of siting quality on the long term surface temperature record, with our most recent paper
Fall, S., A. Watts, J. Nielsen-Gammon, E. Jones, D. Niyogi, J. Christy, and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2011: Analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., in press. Copyright (2011) American Geophysical Union.
http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/r-3671.pdf
We also have other papers on this subject; e.g. see
Klotzbach, P.J., R.A. Pielke Sr., R.A. Pielke Jr., J.R. Christy, and R.T. McNider, 2009: An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D21102, doi:10.1029/2009JD011841.
http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/r-345.pdf
Klotzbach, P.J., R.A. Pielke Sr., R.A. Pielke Jr., J.R. Christy, and R.T. McNider, 2010: Correction to: “An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D21102, doi:10.1029/2009JD011841″, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D1, doi:10.1029/2009JD013655.
http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/r-345a.pdf
Steeneveld, G.J., A.A.M. Holtslag, R.T. McNider, and R.A Pielke Sr, 2011: Screen level temperature increase due to higher atmospheric carbon dioxide in calm and windy nights revisited. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D02122, doi:10.1029/2010JD014612.
http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/r-342.pdf
Pielke Sr., R.A., C. Davey, D. Niyogi, S. Fall, J. Steinweg-Woods, K. Hubbard, X. Lin, M. Cai, Y.-K. Lim, H. Li, J. Nielsen-Gammon, K. Gallo, R. Hale, R. Mahmood, S. Foster, R.T. McNider, and P. Blanken, 2007: Unresolved issues with the assessment of multi-decadal global land surface temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S08, doi:10.1029/2006JD008229.
http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/r-321.pdf
Parker, D. E., P. Jones, T. C. Peterson, and J. Kennedy, 2009: Comment on Unresolved issues with the assessment of multidecadal global land surface temperature trends. by Roger A. Pielke Sr. et al.,J. Geophys. Res., 114, D05104, doi:10.1029/2008JD010450.
http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/r-321b.pdf
Pielke Sr., R.A., C. Davey, D. Niyogi, S. Fall, J. Steinweg-Woods, K. Hubbard, X. Lin, M. Cai, Y.-K. Lim, H. Li, J. Nielsen-Gammon, K. Gallo, R. Hale, R. Mahmood, S. Foster, R.T. McNider, and P. Blanken, 2009: Reply to comment by David E. Parker, Phil Jones, Thomas C. Peterson, and John Kennedy on .Unresolved issues with the assessment of multi-decadal global land surface temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D05105,
doi:10.1029/2008JD010938.
http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/r-321a.pdf
Hanamean, J.R. Jr., R.A. Pielke Sr., C.L. Castro, D.S. Ojima, B.C. Reed, and Z. Gao, 2003: Vegetation impacts on maximum and minimum temperatures in northeast Colorado. Meteorological Applications, 10, 203-215.
http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/r-254.pdf
Pielke Sr., R.A., T. Stohlgren, L. Schell, W. Parton, N. Doesken, K. Redmond, J. Moeny, T. McKee, and T.G.F. Kittel, 2002: Problems in evaluating regional and local trends in temperature: An example from eastern Colorado, USA. Int. J. Climatol., 22, 421-434.
http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/r-234.pdf
We are currently looking at the instrument change issue as a follow on to our Fall et al 2011 paper. Your input on our paper would be very valuable.
This is really important and influential work and I am glad you have shared it!
Best Regards
Roger
Last evening when Greg sent me the latest figure with the June 2011 data, he also updated the information with the e-mail below.
On Thu, 30 Jun 2011, gregory.carbin@xxxx wrote:
Roger,
The updated chart is attached to this e-mail. It may be trivial to add one more record for the month but it was a new record (not a tie) and it was also the only new all-time record high broken in Kansas during the month. There were all-time max temperatures in Kansas that were tied during the month but only this one, on the last day of the month, was a new record. The other states with stations breaking all-time high temperature records in June were: FL, NM, OK, and TX. Again, there were 17 new all-time maximum temperature records set in June 2001, and 25 all-time maxes tied during June 2011 according to the data available from NCDC as of late this evening.
The top three years and numbers from the chart, if you need them handy, are:
Year, # Tied,# Broken, Total
1994, 117, 112, 229
1990, 95, 62, 157
1998, 58, 31, 89
I will look forward to your post.
-Greg
============================================================
From Anthony: I have documented serious and uncorrected problems with the NOAA ASOS system at airports. One notable train wreck of false high temperatures (which still remain in the climate record today) Occurred in Honolulu , HI at the airport. Just look at the difference.
The data from the two Oahu stations, 3.9 miles apart on the south shore. When plotted side by side, was telling. I marked missing data, the record high events, and when the ASOS was repaired.
The ASOS sensor read several degrees high, setting a string of all-time new temperature records. Seems to be a recurring problem, see my analysis over several posts:
This is your Honolulu Temperature. This is your Honolulu Temperature on ASOS. Any questions?
More on NOAA’s FUBAR Honolulu “record highs” ASOS debacle, PLUS finding a long lost GISS station
NOAA: FUBAR high temp/climate records from faulty sensor to remain in place at Honolulu
How not to measure temperature, part 88 – Honolulu’s Official Temperature ±2
Guest Weblog: Ben Herman Of The University Of Arizona – Maximum Temperature Trends and the HO83
Key West, FL sets new subzero “record low” temperature – Update: now snowing!
Hot Air in Washington DC- More ASOS Failures?
=======
I have more coming on this, look for another post on the ASOS/Airport issue related to high temperatures.
At 7:08 PM on 7 July, Interstellar Bill discusses his personal experience with thermal tests in solar water-heaters using various instruments, emphasizing the need for precise calibration and explicitly assessed limits of accuracy, as well as damned exacting measures undertaken to ensure that the effects of variables outside the effects being evaluated were themselves known with commensurate precision so that compensation could be incorporated in the analysis of the data obtained. He writes:
Precisely what I’ve never been able to find in all the alarmist propaganda. I don’t know about other readers, but one of my required undergraduate courses was in Instrumental Analysis, and from 9th Grade a fixed topic in all my high school science courses was limits of instrumental accuracy.
At all times henceforth and to this day, nothing of objective evidence in my professional life has been considered valid without conveying information on the “wiggle room” imposed by compounding error factors and other variables affecting the reliability of data collection.
How the hell do los warmistas get away with fraction-of-a-degree assertions of precision in local and worldwide temperature prevalence figures (and predictions of very long-range future developments) without stipulating the ranges of error necessarily imposed by confounding factors?
When the climatology quacks began pushing their “Cargo Cult Science” as the basis for political policy – in other words, violent force imposed upon peaceable people at gunpoint, because that’s the sum total of everything government anywhere, at any time, ever undertakes – they decided to keep responsible assessments of error out of the picture in order to give the impression of precision and inexorable authority by precluding reasoned understanding of just how nebulous and indefinite their “predictions” really were.
Except that Fox is not “anti global warming,” not even a bit. They report the same AP news on the subject as everyone else, they just happen to throw in a few skeptical stories from time to time for balance. I wonder if people like you, scottish skeptic, actually read/watch Fox, or simply rely on what the rest of the left-leaning media says about them? Or, are you one of those that cannot fathom the difference between news reports and opinion pieces done by analysts? Either way, it comes across as ignorance.
Mark
On that basis, why not make the jump straight to Kelvin? No more messing around with a 273 degree ‘bias’ up the scale …
My suggestion would be to re-scale the Fahrenheit scale from zero for water freezing to the present 100 degree F point on the scale to give a better ‘instant’ recognition of the effects on plants, animals, humans and equipment; this would better emphasize the safe ‘working range’ for the majority of the life-forms that are 90 some percent water and with internal core body temperatures around that 100 deg F point … doesn’t it get confusing remembering what the correct deg C mark represents a comfortable room temperature or what your core temperature (98.6 deg F) should nominally measure? Common fever temperatures for us in the states measure something over normal in the 101 to 102 degrees F range for instance …
As I write this I notice 106 degrees is presently showing on the external thermometry here in north central Tejas … HOT!
.
Bernie, my inclination was to respond that nowhere else is there such a shameless violation of scientific standards as in climate science. If politically driven, it’s Lysenko-esque. I’ve written another Skeptic-style climate-science critical article that ends with that observation, but I’m having trouble getting it published.
But anyway, after thinking about the attack on scientific ethics under the AGW umbrella, I realized that the uncritical support given to this cadre of climate scientists by the AMS, the AGU, the NAS, and even the APS shows that organizational scientists who should know better have given their institutional support to the destruction of their own discipline.
It’s as though Congress, the Office of the President, and the Attorney General issued press releases supporting activity that is objectively criminal by existing legal standards. Given this institutional support, the criminals themselves are free to cavalierly dismiss the evidence delivered in protest by offended citizens. The criminals are encouraged in their feeling of righteousness (which even violent criminals often have), by the institutionally fostered normative false morality. Their undisturbed delusion justifies the dismissals of wrongdoing. What is an arrest, after all, but a jarring wake-up call to a person self-deluded into believing the life and property of others actually belongs to him?
So, Vose & co. can submit their peremptory dismissal with feelings of justified irritation that Davey and Pielke Sr. could dare to criticize where institutional icons have granted approval.
As I see it, therefore, the AMS, AGU, NAS and APS have colluded in the violation of science. They have constructed a culture where to be normatively moral is to be ethically vacant. As official guardians of the standards of science, like guardians of the rule of law, they are more guilty of scientific malfeasance than the individual scientists who have actively written fake science.
Don K says:
July 8, 2011 at 4:44 am
1. Doesn’t the probability of setting a new high at any given site fall off with the length of the temperature record for that site?
You’re right. The probability of a new record is roughly proportional to the log of the time that records have been kept. For example, with 10 years of records, the log is 1. It would take roughly 100 years for a new record to be set – log 2, and after that you’d have to wait 1000 years for a third record. Of course in the US there are hundreds of sites, 365 days per year, and records for high and low so there are thousands of records, a few broken each day is not that remarkable.
I became aware of that problem when I first attended high school. There were stories in our local paper about school athletes breaking records every few weeks. Our school was only 4 years old when I started attending, so NATURALLY there’d be more school records set than at a school with 30,or more years of records.
Up above, there are complaints related to the ASOS stations. At the NOAA’s new normals post there’s a link to this announcement from NOAA. But while searching for data I found this June 2011 “State of the Climate: National Overview” report with some different wording:
Does it mean anything that they’re changing the normal for the ASOS maps ahead of others? Perhaps “hide the incline”?
ASOS measurements are a joke. They are put in for pilots safety, not climate data. Here in the west, Reno, Palm Springs and Las Vegas temperatures are so unreliable. The average minimums are what are way up. What else would you expect when the ASOS is put near a runway, taxiway or asphalt parking area. In asking San Diego, Reno and Las Vegas NWS about the problem their reply is simply “that’s the way it is”.
The huge spike of record highs in (especially) 1994 sparks memories for me. I have been in electronic manufacturing for over 25 years now. Many electronic chips require fan cooling. The fans we adopted in the early 1990s had a huge failure rate after a couple of years. It turns out that in cost cutting, they made bearings that didn’t last well. The graph of record highs looks much like our product-return graphs.
So, we have a massive shift circa 1990 to smaller ASOS sensor enclosures that require active convection to get good airflow instead of the passive convection of the earlier larger enclosures. A few years later, there is a huge spike in record high temperatures. Does anyone have access to the repair records for these things?
REPLY: funny you should mention fans, as they ar part of the problem. See this article of mine
http://climateaudit.org/2008/01/10/inside-the-ho83-hygrothermometer/
If you go back to 1880 looking for all-time record highs set in each state of the USA, you will find 25 of those 50 records were set in the 1930s.
Going back as far as 1950, is disingenuous and lame.
The number of NOAA weather stations that generate rubbish as data is appalling
I am currently baselining this through 2011 as I try to get an independent measure of the vagaries of Earths Temperature
http://91.192.194.209/averagehourlytemp3.png
This is simply the average temperature of 2680ish (as some of the stations don’t “make the grade” every hour) NOAA weather stations taken every hour
I started with a database of ~7500 stations. After I took out the ones whose whereabouts is undisclosed and those that don’t produce any temperature measurement and then those not producing temperatures around the clock and then those stuck on a temp and then those regularly keybouncing 26C into 226C you are left with these 2680
Being land based with most of the land in the Northern Hemisphere it’s getting warmer 😉
At the end of 2011 I’ll have a look and see if any of the 2680 have “gone rogue” and strip them out of the data
This I will be able to do yearly so we are comparing apples with apples and not banana’s
By the 1st Jan 2011 I’ll have a Solar Annual temp taken hourly every hour…then we will be able to see if it goes up or given the Sun’s inactivity and a year of Volcanic note heaven forbid….down
Don’t worry I have all the raw data ready for the FOI request and reproducibility 🙂
Backed up daily off site. No dog ate my homework excuses required 🙂
Dave
Make that By the 1st Jan 2012
See how easy it is to make a typo 😉