From NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab:
La Niña’s Exit Leaves Climate Forecasts in Limbo
It’s what Bill Patzert, a climatologist and oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., likes to call a “La Nada” – that puzzling period between cycles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean when sea surface heights in the equatorial Pacific are near average.
The comings and goings of El Niño and La Niña are part of a long-term, evolving state of global climate, for which measurements of sea surface height are a key indicator. For the past three months, since last year’s strong La Niña event dissipated, data collected by the U.S.-French Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 oceanography satellite have shown that the equatorial Pacific sea surface heights have been stable and near average. Elsewhere, however, the northeastern Pacific Ocean remains quite cool, with sea levels much lower than normal. The presence of cool ocean waters off the U.S. West Coast has also been a factor in this year’s cool and foggy spring there.
The current state of the Pacific is shown in this OSTM/Jason-2 image, based on the average of 10 days of data centered on June 18, 2011. The image depicts places where Pacific sea surface height is higher (warmer) than normal as yellow and red, while places where the sea surface is lower (cooler) than normal are shown in blue and purple. Green indicates near-normal conditions. Sea surface height is an indicator of how much of the sun’s heat is stored in the upper ocean.
For oceanographers and climate scientists like Patzert, “La Nada” conditions can bring with them a high degree of uncertainty. While some forecasters (targeting the next couple of seasons) have suggested La Nada will bring about “normal” weather conditions, Patzert cautions previous protracted La Nadas have often delivered unruly jet stream patterns and wild weather swings.
In addition, some climatologists are pondering whether a warm El Niño pattern (which often follows La Niña) may be lurking over the horizon. Patzert says that would be perfectly fine for the United States.
“For the United States, there would be some positives to the appearance of El Niño this summer,” Patzert said. “The parched and fire-ravaged southern tier of the country would certainly benefit from a good El Niño soaking. Looking ahead to late August and September, El Niño would also tend to dampen the 2011 hurricane season in the United States. We’ve had enough wild and punishing weather this year. Relief from the drought across the southern United States and a mild hurricane season would be very welcome.”
Jason-2 scientists will continue to monitor Pacific Ocean sea surface heights for signs of El Niño, La Niña or prolonged neutral conditions.
JPL manages the U.S. portion of the OSTM/Jason-2 mission for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C.
For more information on NASA’s ocean surface topography missions, visit: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/ .
To view the latest Jason-1 and OSTM/Jason-2 data, visit: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/ .
Alan Buis
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
Alan.buis@jpl.nasa.gov
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See also the WUWT ENSO reference page for the latest information
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As ex-dinosaurs (or siblings thereof), birds have had a LONG time to get it right, and a multi-hundred million year data file to mine. Climate Scientists, after anointing themselves, quickly froze their paradigms and ran halooing into a lush, green, dead-end canyon. Earth and data tremors have subsequently caused rockfalls of blown predictions and projections behind them, sealing off the exit.
Sharpshooters are now moving into place along the canyon rim.
Grumpy Old Man UK says onJuly 5, 2011 at 1:37 pm
Here in south-east England, the swallows (summer migrant birds) are already starting to muster on overhead power and telephone lines. Tradition has it that if the swallows leave early, the Winter will be hard. I hasten to add that this hypothesis is a result of centuries of empirical observation by uneducated country-folk and that no computer models were involved in it’s making.
That is interesting, because here on the opposite side, in South Wales, I’ve seen that as well.
Also – some rowans have already ripe, red berries, in the first week of July! They generally ripen towards the end of the summer.
And Circaea lutetiana, or Enchanter’s Nightshade, has set seed about a week ago. Again, this usually doesn’t happen here before mid-August at the earliest. I have to remove the burrs from my dogs’ coats, so I’m quite certain about the timing.
It most certainly isn’t a sign of AGW, because a) May and June were not hot, and b) during some truly hot years earlier in this millennium we did not see this early ripening.
This may indeed point to an early winter in the British Isles.
But as Grumpy Old Man UK said, these are just simple, empirical observations by another uneducated person. No computer models involved …
Look for another La NINA this coming winter starting in October / November and going through 2012. No EL NINO until 2013
1) A grasp of the past set ups, the current physical drivers, and then using models as tools is the way I forecast . The fact is the Frontier research model has been beating the other climate model silly on the enso trends, anticipating before the other models, and in agreement with ideas I had.
2) This enso event is very close to 08-09. I said that LAST FEBRUARY.. IN 2010 that this would come on and be a 2 year event overall. The weakening now will be reverse and a secondary cool signal, similar to winter 08-09 will evolve. That has been a long standing forecast that has been out for almost 18 months now and I dont see why I should change it. Now that the CFS is showing this, I am sure many will climb aboard I I suspect they are already)
3) Joe D Aleo’s wonderful post on Weatherbell on the nature of cold PDO enso events is something everyone should read, as in the cold PDO, these cold events last longer. My bet is NOAA, following their models, will see the second part of this event and realize it was only the naturally ebb and flow of the total occurrence much like 08-09. The excellent MEI site is the prime reference to situations like this and shows some of the things I am talking about with fading, then returning events.
ciao cumpares
Swallow migration and bird migration, in general, is well studied, but is also the subject of folklore and legend. The swallows of Capistrano supposedly return March 16 and leave October 23, and, like the wooly bear legends, has become the centerpiece of festivals. Yes, many of the swallows have returned to Capistrano by March 16 although in recent years due to urbanization there and, quite possibly, disruptions on their Argentina wintering grounds, fewer and fewer swallows are returning. Different species of birds navigate at different times of the day or night at different altitudes and using different migration paths (some over water, some avoiding ocean transit) and using different instruments including acute vision and memory of landmarks as well as internal compasses (solar or celestial). The migration patterns of a species reflect what has been sucessful over time: evolution. The principal reason for migration is that young nestlings require a lot of protein food which is available in the amounts required, mainly as insects (ever been in the tiaga and tundra in June and July!) , far to the north of their wintering grounds. Return flights of many species depend on nesting success- mostly weather related- with addition nesting attempted with failure of an earlier brood. Weather and their internal compass also influence their return migration dates. Migration is well understood and there is great variaty in species’ adaptations. Despite being well understood there remains much mystery and even awe at the incredible journeys of these descendants of the dinosaurs.
Birds may be timing their arrivals and departures based on food supply. Food supply is highly sensitive to weather pattern variation changes. Mammals also may time their biological clocks to food supply.
We have had a long, cool, wet spring with delayed flora and insect arrival. All flora arrived late but now that the sun is shining, we have had a major surge in plants. The ground is also still damp and even swampy, but warm, meaning that we have bugs available, finally. We had to wait for warm wet for the bugs to emerge. Cool wet kept them from hatching.
So, while the bats have finally given birth (late) and are having a feeding frenzy, and the pair of great horned owls in the barn are finally able to eat bats at will, bat numbers are way down and offspring mortality will likely be very high when it is time to migrate out of here.
A change in the timing of food supply that is even less than a month can devastate migratory bat populations, bird populations, and smaller ground mammals. That change can ripple all the way through to the major predators. We have had these conditions for the past 4 years. I wonder if that is why our local wolf packs have now begun to invade cattle herds.
The following link demonstrates (and has been demonstrated before) nexus between elk and Pacific Ocean conditions, as well as wolf predation. The obligatory connection to global warming by the grad student author is of course part of the press release.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/05/050510184013.htm
Tony Apple
You may not like what the La Nina brings but forewarned , one can at least prepare.
The current year 2011 is a good example of what happens in North Central US and the Prairie Provinces in Canada during La Ninas when global temperatures drop and we have cold and snowy winters that stretch well into spring. The previous Nina and the still cold PDO[ Pacific Decadal Oscillation] brought colder temperatures and extra amount of snow during the past winter to many parts of North America. Extra snow means significant spring flooding like we just had and are still having in July in Central US and many parts of western and eastern Canada. This year the Canadian Prairie provinces saw “once in 300 years” type of floods from the winter melt. The winter temperatures in the US East North Central region just west of the Great Lakes, the region that feeds the Manitoba rivers have dropped some 10.4 degrees F since 2002 The snow extent in North America during 2011 winter was the third highest ever since the 1967 and was only exceeded by the winters of 1979 and 2010.
Whatever brings more rain to SW Colorado is fine by me. Backpacking in the Weminuche beginning next Sunday (17th) and the ability to have a fire would be quite nice. As it stands, stage 1 fire ban which means fires only in developed campgrounds.
Mark
I’m with Marcia. I check the WUWT ENSO page daily and if we should expect anything, it would be the return of La Nina. Recent experience also demonstrates that the consequences of La Ninas are not so predictable. The 2008 La Nina brought severe drought to Northern California, but this past one has brought lots of precipitation.
@matt .v
Unfort weather was pretty cold last winter in the western US and Canada, but dont talk to people in Frobisher Bay.
Here is a good summary of last years “Weather”
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1831
The outflows of cold air also affected Europe, but dont talk to people in eastern Siberia 🙂
Harvey
Yes , different parts of the globe experience the La Nina differently. North America and especially Central inland and Prairie areas have it much colder during La Nina winters than some coastal areas. Europe ‘s coldest winters are more during NEUTRAL and El Nino years as this seems to correlate with negative AO more often. The current winter will likely have another L a NINA and North AMERICA may again be cold with lots of snow . Europe and UK will have a more normal winter or warmer than last winter which was extra cold due to a “one in 100 year” cold December. January and February were not that cold in Europe.