From NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab:
La Niña’s Exit Leaves Climate Forecasts in Limbo
It’s what Bill Patzert, a climatologist and oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., likes to call a “La Nada” – that puzzling period between cycles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean when sea surface heights in the equatorial Pacific are near average.
The comings and goings of El Niño and La Niña are part of a long-term, evolving state of global climate, for which measurements of sea surface height are a key indicator. For the past three months, since last year’s strong La Niña event dissipated, data collected by the U.S.-French Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 oceanography satellite have shown that the equatorial Pacific sea surface heights have been stable and near average. Elsewhere, however, the northeastern Pacific Ocean remains quite cool, with sea levels much lower than normal. The presence of cool ocean waters off the U.S. West Coast has also been a factor in this year’s cool and foggy spring there.
The current state of the Pacific is shown in this OSTM/Jason-2 image, based on the average of 10 days of data centered on June 18, 2011. The image depicts places where Pacific sea surface height is higher (warmer) than normal as yellow and red, while places where the sea surface is lower (cooler) than normal are shown in blue and purple. Green indicates near-normal conditions. Sea surface height is an indicator of how much of the sun’s heat is stored in the upper ocean.
For oceanographers and climate scientists like Patzert, “La Nada” conditions can bring with them a high degree of uncertainty. While some forecasters (targeting the next couple of seasons) have suggested La Nada will bring about “normal” weather conditions, Patzert cautions previous protracted La Nadas have often delivered unruly jet stream patterns and wild weather swings.
In addition, some climatologists are pondering whether a warm El Niño pattern (which often follows La Niña) may be lurking over the horizon. Patzert says that would be perfectly fine for the United States.
“For the United States, there would be some positives to the appearance of El Niño this summer,” Patzert said. “The parched and fire-ravaged southern tier of the country would certainly benefit from a good El Niño soaking. Looking ahead to late August and September, El Niño would also tend to dampen the 2011 hurricane season in the United States. We’ve had enough wild and punishing weather this year. Relief from the drought across the southern United States and a mild hurricane season would be very welcome.”
Jason-2 scientists will continue to monitor Pacific Ocean sea surface heights for signs of El Niño, La Niña or prolonged neutral conditions.
JPL manages the U.S. portion of the OSTM/Jason-2 mission for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C.
For more information on NASA’s ocean surface topography missions, visit: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/ .
To view the latest Jason-1 and OSTM/Jason-2 data, visit: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/ .
Alan Buis
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
Alan.buis@jpl.nasa.gov
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See also the WUWT ENSO reference page for the latest information
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Ditchfield: warmists (like Leninists) redefine meanings. Peer reviewed used to mean “probably OK to publish [and tough luck on the author if he gets a hammering post-publication]”. Warmists have redefined it to mean “must be good/right [& therefore ‘non – peer-reviewed’ = not good/right ie rubbish]”. Make what you will of their redefining.
Grumpy: swallow assemblies are not signifiers of weather. For the last 15 years I have not seen them assembling on the phone wires (from about mid August in my part of England). UK southern England weather seems pretty consistent, warm/cool/wet/dry/hot from time to time, sometimes all five in one day. Perhaps the swallows are halfway to telling us something about climate. Perhaps something entirely unconnected with climate has driven them away – wot, a phenomenon not connected to AGW!!
Judging from NASA’s track record, they should call the next ENSO event La Bumble (h/t Ricthie Valens)
“Patzert cautions previous protracted La Nadas have often delivered unruly jet stream patterns and wild weather swings.”
Just so, by influencing surface air pressure distribution from the bottom up.
And since the recent solar minimum ‘coincided’ with a highly negative AO many are suggesting that solar effects do exactly the same from the top down.
So it is time to follow my recommendations of the past few years. Integrate the two interacting processes to provide an explanation for pretty much all observed climate change on the basis of natural variability alone.
1DandyTroll says:
July 5, 2011 at 2:11 pm
> Oceanography at a Jet propulsion laboratory. Are they building rocket propelled speed boats perhaps?
JPL sends satellites to study solar system planets, their moons, and other bodies. Earth is in the first group.
> I’m stumped.
No, you’re a troll.
I endorse Grumpy’s comment. I live on the south coast of England and I, too, have seen the very early gatherings of our migratory birds. Their usual (for the last ten years or so) time of departure is late-August to mid-September. The blackbirds have foregone raising their second broods, as have the dunnocks. Skeins of geese are already leaving in early July!
I have followed the advice given to me by an old (80+years) Downs (as in Sussex Downs) farmer and have been collecting cords of firewood. He has been out with his two sons and what seems to be a whole tribe of grandsons and great-grandsons, gathering wood by the lorry-load. He is of the firm opinion that the coming winter here in England is going to make last year’s deep freeze look like a Vicar’s tea party and he’s preparing for it already. I’ve followed suit; if he’s right then I’ll also be prepared. If he’s wrong, I’ve got a whole lot of firewood stored stashed away for when it is going to be needed.
More ominously. the shepherds of the Sussex sheep on the Downs are making preparations to bring their flocks down off the Downs (you have to be English to understand this) to the low-lying meadows at the end of July. This is normally an event in September. I am not going to deprecate the accumulated wisdom of so many people whose livelihood depends on their correct interpretation of what they “feel in their water”, as they put it.
There is no science in what they do, just the desire to survive and to ensure that their flocks do the same. They’ve been doing this for many hundreds of years and they are still here.
They’re doing it right!
Rhoda Ramirez says:
July 5, 2011 at 1:55 pm
GOM, UK: When do the swallows normally begin to muster for their migration? It’s still only the first week in July, after all.
——————————————————————————————————————————-
September. http://www.rspb.org.uk/wildlife/birdguide/name/s/swallow/migration.aspx
Scroll down. (October migraters are stragglers)
Re Stephen Brown says:
July 5, 2011 at 3:04 pm
“Downs” Downs are a range of hills.
Hills are Downs? Don’t ask 😉
I think Joe Bastardi has stated that his method relies heavily on empirical evidence – as in “What happened before when the conditions were like they are now?”
Joe uses models, but you will note that his reliance on the models only goes out for a short time to look for possible trends, and then from there he looks back to history.
I am just a lowly earth scientist, but my reliance on models is similar. They are great tools for helping define the parameters and looking for short term trands, but cannot be relied upon for any long term interpretation.
If I am wrong I hope Joe will straighten me out.
Ric Werme says:
July 5, 2011 at 3:02 pm
“1DandyTroll says:
July 5, 2011 at 2:11 pm
> Oceanography at a Jet propulsion laboratory. Are they building rocket propelled speed boats perhaps?
JPL sends satellites to study solar system planets, their moons, and other bodies. Earth is in the first group.
> I’m stumped.
No, you’re a troll.”
OMG, how on earth did you deduce that? However, though, I’m a fisherman trolling. And I’m very dandy. :p
And by the by, they’re more likely to advice on Hollywood production rather ‘an “sending” satellites into space . . . apparently all very probabilistic statistics.
La Nada = natural climate disruption. Uh-oh.
The last time we actually had a neutral ENSO winter, where water temps in the Pacific stayed within ±0.5˚C throughout the season was in 2003/04. Prior to that it was 1996/97. The last time we had a 1st year moderate to strong La Niña that was not followed by another La Niña winter was in 1988/89. Chances are, La Niña will be back again this winter and the cooling subsurface waters in the ENSO basin are indicative of that. The best analog fits for this coming winter are 1950/51, 1955/56, and 2008/09 which should make winter lovers in my neck of the woods (northern MN) very happy.
Stephen Brown says:
July 5, 2011 at 3:04 pm
At some point by the end of this decade, we will be able to walk over a frozen Thames in central London.
Green indicates near-normal conditions.
“Normal” would seem to be a wrong choice of words. Wouldn’t average, or mean, be better words? The sea surface is never flat everywhere. It would be a very odd situation for that to happen. This if all of the oceans were “normal” green color on the image that would be abnormal.
Doesn’t this graph of a composite of computer model, as seen on the WattsUpWithThat ENSO page, show La Nina on the way and not La Nada?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif
“Patzert cautions previous protracted La Nadas have often delivered unruly jet stream patterns and wild weather swings.”
Well, that would be a vast improvement. The problem we’ve had the last few years is from adn overly “ruly” jet stream. When it moves around a lot, you don’t get as many droughts and floods.
Stephen Brown says on July 5, 2011 at 3:04 pm:
There is no science in what they do, just the desire to survive and to ensure that their flocks do the same. They’ve been doing this for many hundreds of years and they are still here.
They’re doing it right!
The science they do is the best kind: empirical observations over time. And they remember all of these and use data which is stored in long term memory to make projections for the near term weather.
Re: Downs = Ups. Many of us recall Frodo’s travails in the Barrow Downs. I believe most English terms for topography are present in The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings.
If Washington, D.C. is frozen solid this winter, it would be a good thing.
Meanwhile, I’ve just read a report that Julia (the Grotesque) Gillard has ordered thousands of feral camels killed in Australia’s outback, because their farting adds to Global Warming. Camels were imported to Australia back in the 19th century to haul supplies through the western deserts. Some escaped, and today, the Australian population of (bactrian) camels represents the biggest gene pool of this “mega fauna” in the world. Now the “environmentalists” are going to destroy them. Never let me hear one of them disparage Buffalo Bill Cody (a relative) lest I lose control and perform a camelectomy.
The signals are pointing toward an El Nino, a double-dip La Nina or neutral conditions.
That is just the way it is.
The east Pacific equatorial upper ocean temperature anomaly is the most reliable measure of what will occur and it is starting to point toward the double-dip just like happened in 2008.
http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/4272/ensoepuothajun11.png
While there is more than enough warm water in the sub-surface and in the Pacific Equatorial Under-current to bring on an El Nino …
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif
… the left-over cooler water from the last La Nina are inflitrating/recirculating-back-in particularly at the important 140W longitude …
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/ocean/real_time/yzmaps/
… and in the Humbolt Current coming up the coast of South America.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom32/navo/EQANMSSTfcst.gif
So. I’m still with an El Nino. The surface current has been going backwards for four months now.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/mnth_gif/xy/mnth.anom.xy.u15m.2011.05.gif
and the Trade winds are almost back to normal after being higher than normal for the past year.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/ua850_c.gif
Hey, how about updating your ice forcast for the summer.
Looks like prediction of less than 4.5 is going to hold.
Too bad for your predictions.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/07/search-outlook.html#more
I can handle another la nina winter here in North Dakota. It wasn’t too bad — we didn’t have a the usual 3 week deep freeze we get in late jan–feb where we have highs of -15 below F. This year it was only 10 days. A little bit more than normal snowfall. All in all, not a bad winter.
This spring and summer though– wet, thunderous and tornadic. I no-likey! If this is la-nada, i want no-mas.
Ex
polistra said:
July 5, 2011 at 5:50 pm
“The problem we’ve had the last few years is from an overly “ruly” jet stream. When it moves around a lot, you don’t get as many droughts and floods.”
When the jets are more zonal you get more droughts on either side of, and more floods underneath, the more persistent longitudinal track.
When the jets are more meridional there are more alternating droughts and floods more widely distributed latitudinally as the jets loop about and often get locked into position for a while.
The critical factor is the net effect on the global energy budget of the two jetstream modes.
Zonality is associated with poleward jets which whiz faster around the poles and closer to the poles. They result from a combined expansion of the tropics from warmer ocean surfaces and a contraction of the polar vortex from a more active sun. Although the tropics expand, the temperature around the equator itself changes barely at all due to the effectiveness of water cooling via the water cycle.
The poles become more detached from flows of warm air in and cold air out so the contracted polar air masses result in colder poles but more warmth in the mid latitudes.
When the jets are more meridional, waving about over a greater latitudinal range we see contracted tropics and expanded polar air masses. There is more air flowing in and out of the polar regions which become warmer but the mid latitudes get colder.
More zonality thus gives less heat loss from the colder poles to space but more heat loss from the larger and warmer mid latitudes.
More meridionality gives more heat loss from the warmer poles to space but less heat loss from the larger and cooler mid latitudes.
There is a vast degree of flexibility in the net balance between polar and mid latitude energy loss hence the persistence of the existing climate zones. All that it takes to ensure system stability is relatively minor variations in the surface air pressure distribution which then alters the size position and intensity of those zones relative to one another.
Thus the degree of zonality/meridionality represents the process that arranges for global energy in to match global energy out thereby stabilising the entire system in a way which is always negative to any forcing from any source towards warming or cooling.
The equilibrium temperature which the system always seeks to maintain is set by global atmospheric pressure and via that the energy value of the latent heat of vaporisation which combined control the rate at which absorbed solar energy energy could leave the oceans in the absence of a water cycle.
In the presence of a water cycle any factor that tries to make the system depart from that basic equilibrium temperature just alters the speed of the water cycle via those shifts in jetstream zonality/meridionality. It is always a negative system reaction overall so the assumption of a positive system feedback in any given scenario is erroneous. The system response is always a fast, effective and powerfully negative response.
Here, I describe how the oceans set the equilibrium temperature and how the changes in surface air pressure distribution maintain it:
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/features-2/wilde-weather/setting-and-maintaining-of-earth%e2%80%99s-equilibrium-temperature/18931.html
and here (yet again, so my apologies to those who are getting bored by it):
is a description of how the top down solar effect must work to fit recent observations:
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/features-2/wilde-weather/the-sun-could-control-earths-temperature/290.html
There is no observed climate change that is inconsistent with the scenario that I describe and greenhouse gases overall (let alone CO2) are relegated to an insignificant factor in the face of solar variations from outside the system and oceanic variations from within the system.
Bill Illis
Your comment at this link:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/05/la-nina-on-the-way-out-puzzles-on-the-way-in/#comment-694930
looks like it could be a post here at WUWT. I suggest submitting it to Anthony as a potential guest post!
“Tradition has it that if the swallows leave early, the Winter will be hard.”
How is it that birds with tiny brains can outperform the smartest of climate scientists with huge electronic brains?
The Japanese ENSO model that most accurately predicted the last La Niña is going for a double dip with a return to fairly strong (~ -1.0C) La Niña conditions within a few months.
One set of models is going for La Nada while the others have a La Niña. I don’t put a lot of stock in the models since they’ve been proven to have little or no skill anyway but we’ll see what happens.
The birds are out side 24/7