From NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab:
La Niña’s Exit Leaves Climate Forecasts in Limbo
It’s what Bill Patzert, a climatologist and oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., likes to call a “La Nada” – that puzzling period between cycles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean when sea surface heights in the equatorial Pacific are near average.
The comings and goings of El Niño and La Niña are part of a long-term, evolving state of global climate, for which measurements of sea surface height are a key indicator. For the past three months, since last year’s strong La Niña event dissipated, data collected by the U.S.-French Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 oceanography satellite have shown that the equatorial Pacific sea surface heights have been stable and near average. Elsewhere, however, the northeastern Pacific Ocean remains quite cool, with sea levels much lower than normal. The presence of cool ocean waters off the U.S. West Coast has also been a factor in this year’s cool and foggy spring there.
The current state of the Pacific is shown in this OSTM/Jason-2 image, based on the average of 10 days of data centered on June 18, 2011. The image depicts places where Pacific sea surface height is higher (warmer) than normal as yellow and red, while places where the sea surface is lower (cooler) than normal are shown in blue and purple. Green indicates near-normal conditions. Sea surface height is an indicator of how much of the sun’s heat is stored in the upper ocean.
For oceanographers and climate scientists like Patzert, “La Nada” conditions can bring with them a high degree of uncertainty. While some forecasters (targeting the next couple of seasons) have suggested La Nada will bring about “normal” weather conditions, Patzert cautions previous protracted La Nadas have often delivered unruly jet stream patterns and wild weather swings.
In addition, some climatologists are pondering whether a warm El Niño pattern (which often follows La Niña) may be lurking over the horizon. Patzert says that would be perfectly fine for the United States.
“For the United States, there would be some positives to the appearance of El Niño this summer,” Patzert said. “The parched and fire-ravaged southern tier of the country would certainly benefit from a good El Niño soaking. Looking ahead to late August and September, El Niño would also tend to dampen the 2011 hurricane season in the United States. We’ve had enough wild and punishing weather this year. Relief from the drought across the southern United States and a mild hurricane season would be very welcome.”
Jason-2 scientists will continue to monitor Pacific Ocean sea surface heights for signs of El Niño, La Niña or prolonged neutral conditions.
JPL manages the U.S. portion of the OSTM/Jason-2 mission for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C.
For more information on NASA’s ocean surface topography missions, visit: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/ .
To view the latest Jason-1 and OSTM/Jason-2 data, visit: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/ .
Alan Buis
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
Alan.buis@jpl.nasa.gov
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See also the WUWT ENSO reference page for the latest information
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I’m banking on La Nina returning by the winter. Sub-surface waters are cooler now than in 2008 when we returned to La Nina for the winter.
I would characterize the science as nada understanding the forces at work …
If it’s convenient… “It’s just weather’.
Of course, if it isn’t convenient- it’s all man’s fault.
Pacific sub surface temperatures have been gradually dropping for 2 months now, my guess is on weak la nina conditions through the winter months.
Neutral ENSO then
Can someone explain to me why both Jason and Envisat show sea level rise, exactly where GRACE and GOCE show strong gravitation from the Pacific Ring of Fire?
and why, when Envisat showed sea levels falling, they tuned it to match the climate models so it showed sea levels rising?
Envisat yearly report 2008
http://bit.ly/j33fQv
Okay, so forgive the question from the ignoramus engineer, but if El Niño follows La Niña follows El Niño etc. on a time scale of every one to two years (as would seem to be indicated by Patzert’s comments) then when is there time in between to establish any kind of pattern resembling ‘normal’? I seem to recall learning back in the 80’s that the El Niño/La Niña cycle typically ran about seven years or so – now it seems like every time you see a medium- to long-range forecast, it’s all the forecaster wants to talk about.
Should I have believed
NewspeakNewsweek when they told me ‘This is the New Normal’?La Nina should return by autumn-fall. Subsurface is indeed cooling considerably again and latest long-lead models are already picking up on it: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/images3/nino34Mon.gif Interestingly, a weak or moderate La Nina winter is usually a colder-than-normal one for the East- can we get a fourth cold winter in a row?
At the moment NCEP model is showing the return of La Niña starting September. Winter should be REALLY interesting.
LeeHarvey says:
July 5, 2011 at 12:17 pm
Do a search for ENSO. What you will see are episodes where the La Niña go to normal and then back to La Niña and the El Niño does the same. I.e they don’t always swing from one to the other although Hansen is saying it will be a super El Niño this winter. Wrong again but then he must be used that by now.
Sun quiet, Ocean LaNada, Warmists hyperactive. Coincidence? Hmmmmm.
La Niña will be back and we will have another cold, snowy winter.
The models are all over the place, as seen on page 27 of the following link:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Page 28 and Page 29 have version 1 and Version 2 of the CFS model, and both tend to suggest a return of the La Nina, but individual runs are all over the place.
Flip a coin?
Probably too little too late to end the predictable La Nina drought in Texas before winter. So unless hurricane or two pushes some nice juicy rain bands inland 150 miles to me I’m going to be majorly inconvienced, again, in another month or two as my water pump and boat dock reach the limits of their tethers. But my inconvenience is nothing compared to farmers and suffering wildlife. Making it worse is I’ll be hearing all the spoiled urbanites complaining that they can’t wash their cars or water their lawns whenever they want.
LA NADA UNDERSTANDING
When a scientist enters politics, his opinion as a citizen is as good as that of any citizen. Nonsense spouted by a misguided scientist has no force against common sense in the political field. This places informed laymen on unassailable ground against those who invoke the higher authority of a scientist in a subject that is political while masquerading as scientific.
To quote Peer-Reviewed articles is no substitute for rational thought. Who peer-reviewed the work of Newton? Nobody; Newton has no peer. Who peer-reviewed the 500 articles Einstein published over 50 years? Again, nobody. To imagine peer review as approval by higher authority is an anti-scientific stance; science acknowledges no authority above proof established by systematic observation, measurement and mathematics. After Climategate, peer-reviewed climate science has become the butt of jokes.
Above the fray, there are complex phenomena subject to uncertainty in observation, measurement and interpretation. These include weather forecasts beyond a horizon of one week, the behavior of markets and stock exchange quotations, long term economic predictions, demographics, ocean currents and climate change. They are known as chaotic phenomena, in a mathematical sense. In this setting, contending hypotheses are essayed in search of relationships of cause and effect, with their supporters and adversaries engaged in normal academic debate.
If a hypothesis is hijacked by a commercial interest, for its benefit, the debate slides from the academic plane to the plane of politics. In this case the degree of uncertainty of long term forecasts is such that no responsible public policy may be based on them, with a claim of a consensus of scientific certainty. To do so is fraudulent. The debate must then be treated as a political confrontation of opposing interests. “In the alley, after school, there just ain’t no Golden Rule”; not even the rules of the Marquis of Queensbury apply in a conflict with squalid interests.
Such is the gist of the thought of an eminent scientist, Prof. Hendrik Tennekes, stated in mathematical terms two decades ago, as director of research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute: “there exists no sound theoretical framework for climate predictability studies” used for global warming forecasts. Tennekes demonstrated to my satisfaction that funds are wasted when invested in more weather stations, more powerful computers, sophisticated computer models, in expectation of improving weather forecasts beyond one week, and time has proved him right. Uncertainty did not diminish. It has led to a chase of the foot of the rainbow.
“I’m banking on La Nina returning by the winter. Sub-surface waters are cooler now than in 2008 when we returned to La Nina for the winter.”
Part of me is hoping you’re correct, part is hoping you’re not.
Here in Colorado, the strong La Nina gave us an extremely warm, dry winter, while the mountains got hammered with record snowfalls – that are STILL melting. But the dry was really hard on both people and plants.
Fortunately, we also had a cool, wet May (la Nina on her way out?), which is unusual for us. Temps stayed mild in June too, until last week. That gave us the best plant growth I’ve ever seen. Everyone is commenting on how leaves and flowers are bigger and more plentiful. I’m sure the farmers are happy too.
Our little subdivision, at the bottom in between two ridges, has also missed out on extreme thunderstorms. Our biggest weather damage here is from hail, which has yet to hit us (knock on wood) this year. When I watch on a real-time weather map (like Weather Underground’s wundermap), I can see the cells juke right around us to the west, right before they hit. We’ve only had rain from 2 storms that were big enough that the edge still hit us. It’s like there’s a bubble over just our 6 block by 6 block neighborhood.
A repeat of this weather pattern for the coming year would be nice.
Just some perspective: the MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) was near a record low (El Nino) in February 2010 and then near a record high (La Nina) in February 2011. So for that snapshot month, during the past year, the atmosphere-ocean-climate system has transitioned naturally almost as much as it can — in the tropics.
This has not happened very much in the past 30-years. However, prior to that in the period 1944-1976, it’s a different story.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/#discussion
La Nada will only last a few weeks as a transition period. We will know more in 2 weeks at which time the 3.4 index should either break through the zero line towards an El Nino or swing back to another La Nina.
My money is on another La Nina. Keep your eyes on the trade winds
Here in south-east England, the swallows (summer migrant birds) are already starting to muster on overhead power and telephone lines. Tradition has it that if the swallows leave early, the Winter will be hard. I hasten to add that this hypothesis is a result of centuries of empirical observation by uneducated country-folk and that no computer models were involved in it’s making.
I’m hoping that there is not another La Niña. The area where I live has been so dry that another dry year will devastate the economy as well as the botanical environment. We have drought tolerant native species, but even they need more than .50″ of moisture during the growing season.
When Joe Bastardi was still working for accuweather.com, he had a video and which he explained that in a multi-year La Nina event, which he was predicting, the second winter was always colder than the first. In another video (or maybe the same one) he talked about how a winter with a first year La Nina never had below normal temperatures for so much of the US in all of recorded history. I think this might mean one of two things, assuming Joe is right about La Nina returning: (1) Since the second winter was always colder, this winter will be absolutely frigid; or (2) Since the first winter did not act like any La Nina in recorded history, the second one will also not act any second year La Nina in recorded history and be milder.
In any event, I am still fascinated that people can make long-term predictions on a system as chaotic of the global weather. How can any prediction of any kind have any degree of confidence with you don’t know all of the variables and with the variables you do know none are fully understood?
GOM, UK: When do the swallows normally begin to muster for their migration? It’s still only the first week in July, after all.
I would call this “El feto”. You don´t know what is coming 😉
JFB
Oceanography at a Jet propulsion laboratory. Are they building rocket propelled speed boats perhaps?
I thought NASA was about going up up and away into outer space, taking over the solar system one planet at a time, not just taking up space (wherever climate funding exist.)
I’m stumped.
This tells it all:
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/climate-news/more-harsh-winter-weather-in-store-for-ireland-and-uk/24971.html
More Harsh Winter Weather In Store For Ireland And UK