Farm animal disease to increase with climate change
Researchers looked at changes in the behaviour of bluetongue – a viral disease of cattle and sheep – from the 1960s to the present day, as well as what could happen to the transmission of the virus 40 years into the future. They found, for the first time, that an outbreak of a disease could be explained by changes to the climate.
In Europe, more than 80,000 outbreaks of bluetongue were reported to the World Animal Health Organisation between 1998 and 2010, and millions of animals died as a result of the disease. Bluetongue was previously restricted to Africa and Asia, but its emergence in Europe is thought to be linked to increased temperatures, which allows the insects that carry the virus to spread to new regions and transmit the virus more effectively.
Researchers produced a mathematical model that explains how the risk of an outbreak of bluetongue virus in Europe changes under different climate conditions. The team examined the effect of past climate on the risk of the virus over the past 50 years to understand the specific triggers for disease outbreak over time and throughout geographical regions. This model was then driven forwards in time, using predictive climate models, to the year 2050, to show how the disease may react to future climate change.
Using these future projections, researchers found that in northern Europe there could be a 17% increase in incidence of the bluetongue virus, compared to 7% in southern regions, where it is already much warmer.
Professor Matthew Baylis, from the University’s Institute of Infection and Global Health, said: “Previous study suggests that climate change will alter global disease distribution, and although we have significant knowledge of the climate triggers for particular diseases, more research is needed to identify what we think might really happen in the future.
“We have been able to show that the past emergence of a disease can be explained, in both space and time, by changes to recent climate. These results reinforce the belief that future climate change will threaten our health and well-being by causing infection to spread. Looking forward, this could help inform decision making processes on preparing for disease outbreaks and reduce the huge economic impact that farm animal diseases can have on communities.”
The research is published in Proceedings of the Royal Society Interface.
Notes to editors:
1. The University of Liverpool is a member of the Russell Group of leading research-intensive institutions in the UK. It attracts collaborative and contract research commissions from a wide range of national and international organisations valued at more than £110 million annually.
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Follow the money.
“Researchers produced a mathematical model that explains ”
Heck, I can create a mathematical model to make vanilla ice cream worth $1000 / lb.
Is this another computer model with built in conclusion?
Lying with statistics again? I don’t know the real numbers, but obviously, 17% of 100 is not much compared to 7% of 10,000.
“This model was then driven forwards in time, using predictive climate models, to the year 2050, to show how the disease may react to future climate change.
Using these future projections, researchers found that in northern Europe there could be a 17% increase in incidence of the bluetongue virus, compared to 7% in southern regions, where it is already much warmer.”
How does the uncertainty grow? Let me count the ways.
1.) model with uncertainty was driven forwards assuming that the past was accurately hindcast.
2.) The model used predictive models
3.) The output was analyzed (by what?)
4.) the result could be 17% (it might not be)
5.) the assumed 17% was compared to where it has been hot for millenia
6.) the climate is assumed to warm by default
If the above resembles spitwad selection process or pick a card/any card you’re not alone.
Rising temperatures? 0.7453 C ?
I wonder whether they factored in other mechanisms of disease spread such as cattle or brought directly from areas where the virus is common to Europe.
“Researchers produced a mathematical model”
That’s all you need to know that this is most likely B.S.
I’m SHOCKED simply SHOCKED to find out warm weather diseases happen in warm weather areas… next they’ll have a study claiming that hypothermia increases in risk during cold weather.
Then there is this. “more research is needed to identify what we think might really happen in the future.” Couldn’t forget to mention that more funding is needed.
“Researchers produced a mathematical model that explains how the risk of an outbreak of bluetongue virus in Europe changes under different climate conditions. The team examined the effect of past climate on the risk of the virus over the past 50 years to understand the specific triggers for disease outbreak over time and throughout geographical regions. This model was then driven forwards in time, using predictive climate models, to the year 2050, to show how the disease may react to future climate change.”
Remove the word ‘explains’. Mathematical models cannot explain anything unless you are studying the distribution of colored balls in urns.
Remove the oxymoron “predictive climate models.” Models cannot predict. Models are analytic tools only and cannot do the synthetic work that is done by physical hypotheses.
Once again, people have “fitted” a model to a map and the historical spread of diseases and believe that they have predicted something. They are dead wrong.
But wait a second guys – it is well know that all sorts of specifies will expand/contract their range based on climate conditions. It would seem to me that being aware/smart about the risks is only prudent.
Could it not shorten the cold and flu season?
“Researchers produced a mathematical model that explains”
I stopped reading there. I didn’t even bother to finish the sentence. When will people learn, models do not equal the real world. I can foresee these same people saying “but the model says the economy should improve right now” or “but the model says that I am sleepy right now”.
I note polar bears have blue or black tongues. Is that due to climate change??
So, essentially, now African countries will have to worry of getting the UK mad cow disease due to UK modeled global warming as well, since it’s a two way street. I wonder why they don’t fuzz about that though.
Moisture is also an important factor in the breeding of the midge vectors.
Vaccines are available.
DDT anyone?
This is akin to saying frostbite will be spread by climate change. I would suggest that disease vector control is the issue, not climate. We saw that with the recent EVH1 outbreak in North America – disease was spread around North America from one event at one location because we readily transport animals thousands of miles carrying diseases with them. It was a purely a case of contact transmission. But if they can get more funding to study viral vector control by suggesting it is climate …
This is good but my all time favorite ” It is caused by climate change ” was Danny Glover saying the Hatian earthquake was caused by global warming.
“[…] but its emergence in Europe is thought to be linked to increased temperatures, […]”
Just guessing, eh?
It could also be as easily explained by the wide spread use of color televisions which also happened in that very time frame. Next you’ll hear cell towers are responsible for the die-off of honey bees and for depleting ozone which leads directly to the human cause of the silent sun. These people are crazy. I’ll take a flatulent cow over the mind numbing lot of them.
If you create model which produces palms at the poles, you can suggest that the worldwide population of Yak will suffer.
However we have a ways to go to warm Greenland to the degree where you can raise 100,000 sheep and goats and several thousand cattle, which the Viking were able to do (without hay airlifted from outside) in a single district of one of their two major settlements.
http://www.collectionscanada.gc.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp04/mq22551.pdf
Until the brave people who are currently trying to farm in Greenland can match the Viking, we perhaps should not blame warming for the spread of “blue tongue.” Instead we should blame our modern ability to import and export livestock thousands of miles in hours. A Brahmin Bull can see the sun rise in India and see it set in England.
By the way, that is the definition of a college study funded by wealthy Alarmists: “Brahmin
Bull.”
‘More research is needed to identify what we think might really happen in the future’ -ie. we want more cash to spend on our hypotheses. Words and phrases like ‘is thought to be linked to’, ‘could’, ‘may’, ‘might’ belong with the belief that ‘pigs might fly.’ They COULD just as easily apply to the opposite of what the AGWers want us to believe.
This reminds me of the earlier claim that “climate change” would spread malaria to areas where it never existed before. Unfortunately for the alarmists, in most of those areas malaria did exist in historical times until eradicated by vector control, not CO2 emission control. *sigh*
So I’m going to worry about this latest cry of “wolf” only as long as I…uh, what was I saying?
Wayne Delbeke says:
June 29, 2011 at 6:22 pm
“I would suggest that disease vector control is the issue, not climate.”
Indeed. Look at the map. Climate change is going to carry livestock across the Mediterranean, apparently. Or will the 50 million climate refugees be mostly cattle and sheep, or will they be bringing them?
Stories – I mean “research” – like this makes my tongue turn blue.