Once again, I’m going to give WUWT readers an opportunity to make a forecast for submission, based on voting. See the poll at the end.
I’ll run this poll each month in the week before the deadline, and we’ll see how we do as the minimum approaches. The value used by ARCUS is the NSIDC value as they say here:
The sea ice monthly extent for September 2010 was 4.9 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates.
So don’t be using the JAXA graph to forecast minimums, though it it useful for determining short term trends as it is more responsive than the NSDIC graph below, which is averaged.
Here’s the latest JAXA graph:
JAXA AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent -15% or greater – click to enlarge
On May 30th I submitted the results of the first poll to ARCUS to be included in their June Outlook, as shown below:
Download High Resolution Version of Figure 1.
WUWT is second highest, at 5.5 million sq km. Notably missing this year is “Wilson”, who in the last two years started out with impossibly low values such as 1 million sq km. I’ll repeat the poll next week in preparation for the July Outlook. In the meantime, check the WUWT Sea Ice Page for the latest.
Here’s the poll for the ARCUS July outlook, it will run until July 30th at noon EST.
Anyone wishing to guess at the JAXA ASMR data is welcome to swing by the Lounge of the Lab Lemming for the third annual ice extent guessing pool:
http://lablemminglounge.blogspot.com/2011/06/2011-arctic-sea-ice-extent-minimum.html
The 2009 guesses were extremely alarmist, and 2010 also tended low, so if some of y’all could try to balance things out, that would be great.
I’m upping my vote to “greater than 5.5” because, despite the continuing loss around the periphery, I think the base limit will have been raised by longer staying thick ice. I’m reckoning on the final graph to show a wider though shallower curve after mid July.
I have nothing but my intuition to explain my forecast for Arctic minimum this September. I am going to go with 5.5-5.6. I am thinking we are seeing a flattening of the “sign wave” pattern of waxing and waning ice. Mind you, once the “big push” of climate propaganda takes off this summer I would not be surprised if NSIDC claims the ice completely melted for the first time ever. The Arctic is where they will make their last stand. It’s the only place left where they can make outrageous claims of warming because nobody ever goes there except them.
Zero of course, all ice will be gone as predicted!
@ur momisugly John Marshall: completely OT but is that you in the Telegraph letters page this morning (“Titchmarsh is wrong”): http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/letters/
Nice one about transportation CO2!
Any ice you see is an illusion created by big oil and the evil polluters! The more snow you see, the more you can be sure of the denialist agenda! /sarc
I will guess 4.575
mark h says @ur momisugly June 27, 2011 at 1:11 am “I dont know if you guys have seen this already but I,ll put the link here anyway.Venus no greenhouse effect.”
Oh, and Venus has the same atmospheric conditions – including pressure – that we do I take it? Everything behaves the exact same way as here? Uh, no.
I perdiks Hudson Bay will have 0.0 ice extent by September. Give or take 0.
😉
5.1 to 5.2
Why?
Because I’m a genius.
I fail to see why arctic ice extent is such a big deal. Arctic sea ice extent is almost exactly analogous to the thermostat in a water-cooled automobile engine. As there is more heat to dispose of the thermostat opens up wider allowing more water flow into the radiator. As there is more heat to dispose of from the tropics arctic sea ice extent shrinks which exposes more liquid water surface. A liquid water surface gives up heat FAR faster than a frozen surface.
We know global average temperature has been rising. We got 30 years of satellite data to prove that. But it isn’t getting warmer in the tropics. The “radiator” at the north pole starts working more effectively by opening up more liquid water surface and just dumps that extra heat out the path of least resistance – straight up into space. As a result the pole gets warmer but the effect diminishes as you move south. The ironic part of all this is we’re in a damn ice age and we really some extra warmth in the higher latitudes to extend growing seasons. Increasing CO2 is a huge net benefit to life on this planet including us.
4.9 – 5.0
This year could be higher slightly depending on late summer weather as always (or lower even) but in this case weather patterns appear to be set in this range at least in my mind.
Sun continues to petter out today 26 SSN
http://www.solarham.com/
At this rate one wonders whether average max might be 40 SSN. Im guessing that the effects of the dying sun are beginning to kick in with SST staying well below previous years despite a slight El NIno and of course TLT following this already. I reckonthis yars average temp will be aroung 0.1 to 0.2C (+) based on the AMSU averag for 30 years.
@Glenn Skankey says:
June 27, 2011 at 1:04 am
“wow, that’s a nice bell-curve ”
Bell Curve? Where? All I see is a running time series plot of the actual Ice extent.
Going with ±5.1; flipping the coin and going to the plus side 5.1-5.2.
I assume you meant to say the poll will run to June 30th vice July.
The AO has calmed to neutral and appears stuck there. Looking at ice transport maps, I don’t see much chance of a wind-driven flush. The ice is also pretty thick and concentrated tightly, so it would need a good wind to shove it out. So I will peg it above 5 somewhere.
I decided to vote for above 5.5
Curious if the use of ice breakers help the prevailing winds reduce the ice coverage???
Will the winds blow as in ’07? Maria knows but kim doesn’t. Despite those unusual winds, the recovery of ’08-’10 suggests that the turning point has been reached in a cooling world.
===========
The clouds accumulate,
Pameling up in splendor;
Gray, full of laughter.
============
I’m sticking with the Canadians at 5.0 M Km2. However, the age of the remaining ice continues to increase, so the long-term recovery of the ice cap appears to be ongoing.
Now, keep the damn icebreakers out of there and give the thing some time to recover!
@Moderate Republican,
“Oh, and Venus has the same atmospheric conditions – including pressure – that we do I take it? Everything behaves the exact same way as here? Uh, no.
Nice attempt at a drive by. The ENTIRE article is about temperatures at equal pressures.
Amazing you learned to type without learning to read.
Oh, and my personal prediction for Sept. minimum is 5.45 Mkm^2 ± 0.3
Under 4.5…a guess…but in watching “paint dry” all winter and spring it appeared that the freeze up was late in many areas, especially Hudson Bay, and that the thaw is early. Until very recently, 2011 looked ahead of 2007 in many areas, and still is in some, like north of Russia, though things are changing relatively quickly now.
Anthony, why don’t you add a map of the Arctic that indicates all the various sea names on your Sea Ice Page? It would be a handy reference.
Gary Krause says: June 27, 2011 at 8:18 am
Curious if the use of ice breakers help the prevailing winds reduce the ice coverage???
I think the answer is definitely yes, it’s just a question of magnitude. Icebreakers are designed to help reduce ice coverage, and icebreaker captains are generally smart enough not to break ice when the wind is blowing towards the icepack, lest their icebreaker get stuck. If you look at the US Coast Guard Icebreaker Healy’s Cruisetracks for 2006;
http://www.icefloe.net/images/HLY-06annot.pdf
2007;
http://www.icefloe.net/docs/HLY-07track.pdf
and 2008;
http://www.icefloe.net/docs/healy2008.pdf
it seems intuitive that icebreakers, in conjunction with wind to blow the broken up ice into warmer waters, would help to reduce sea ice coverage.
Unfortunately, we cannot see what the Icebreaker Healy was up to in 2010, as the Cruisetrack is missing;
http://www.icefloe.net/healy-2010-cruise-reports
and it is harder to see the current year, because for some reason the US Coast Guard Icebreaker Science Operation site has added a login to their Realtime Tracking Map:
http://www.icefloe.net/healy-realtime-track-map
Site registration is here:
http://www.icefloe.net/user/register