I’ve managed to get a copy of the official press release provided by the Southwest Research Institute Planetary Science Directorate to MSM journalists, for today’s stunning AAS announcement and it is reprinted in full here:
WHAT’S DOWN WITH THE SUN?
MAJOR DROP IN SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTED
A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).
As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.
The results were announced at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces:
http://astronomy.nmsu.edu/SPD2011/
“This is highly unusual and unexpected,” Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results. “But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.”
Spot numbers and other solar activity rise and fall about every 11 years, which is half of the Sun’s 22-year magnetic interval since the Sun’s magnetic poles reverse with each cycle. An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots during 1645-1715.
Hill is the lead author on one of three papers on these results being presented this week. Using data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) of six observing stations around the world, the team translates surface pulsations caused by sound reverberating through the Sun into models of the internal structure. One of their discoveries is an east-west zonal wind flow inside the Sun, called the torsional oscillation, which starts at
mid-latitudes and migrates towards the equator. The latitude of this wind stream matches the new spot formation in each cycle, and successfully predicted the late onset of the current Cycle 24.
“We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now,” Hill explained, “but we see no sign of it. This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all.”
In the second paper, Matt Penn and William Livingston see a long-term weakening trend in the strength of sunspots, and predict that by Cycle 25 magnetic fields erupting on the Sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Spots are formed when intense magnetic flux tubes erupt from the interior and keep cooled gas from circulating back to the interior. For typical sunspots this magnetism has a strength of 2,500 to 3,500 gauss
(Earth’s magnetic field is less than 1 gauss at the surface); the field must reach at least 1,500 gauss to form a dark spot.
Using more than 13 years of sunspot data collected at the McMath-Pierce Telescope at Kitt Peak in Arizona, Penn and Livingston observed that the average field strength declined about 50 gauss per year during Cycle 23 and now in Cycle 24. They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field. If the trend continues, the field strength will drop below the 1,500 gauss threshold and
spots will largely disappear as the magnetic field is no longer strong enough to overcome convective forces on the solar surface.
Moving outward, Richard Altrock, manager of the Air Force’s coronal research program at NSO’s Sunspot, NM, facilities has observed a slowing of the “rush to the poles,” the rapid poleward march of magnetic activity observed in the Sun’s faint corona. Altrock used four decades of observations with NSO’s 40-cm (16-inch) coronagraphic telescope at Sunspot.
“A key thing to understand is that those wonderful, delicate coronal features are actually powerful, robust magnetic structures rooted in the interior of the Sun,” Altrock explained. “Changes we see in the corona reflect changes deep inside the Sun.”
Altrock used a photometer to map iron heated to 2 million degrees C (3.6 million F). Stripped of half of its electrons, it is easily concentrated by magnetism rising from the Sun. In a well-known pattern, new solar activity emerges first at about 70 degrees latitude at the start of a cycle, then towards the equator as the cycle ages. At the same time, the new magnetic fields push remnants of the older cycle as far as 85 degrees poleward.
“In cycles 21 through 23, solar maximum occurred when this rush appeared at an average latitude of 76 degrees,” Altrock said. “Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we’ll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all. If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23’s magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions (the rush to the poles accomplishes this feat). No one knows what the Sun will do in that case.”
All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.
“If we are right,” Hill concluded, “this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”
# # #
Media teleconference information: This release is the subject of a media
teleconference at the current meeting of the American Astronomical Society’s
Solar Physics Division (AAS/SPD). The telecon will be held at 11 a.m. MDT
(17:00 UTC) on Tuesday, 14 June. Bona fide journalists are invited to attend
the teleconference and should send an e-mail to the AAS/SPD press officer,
Craig DeForest, at deforest@boulder.swri.edu, with the subject heading “SPD:
SOLAR MEDIA TELECON”, before 16:00 UTC. You will receive dial-in information
before the telecon.
These results have been presented at the current meeting of the AAS/SPD.
Citations:
16.10: “Large-Scale Zonal Flows During the Solar Minimum — Where Is Cycle
25?” by Frank Hill, R. Howe, R. Komm, J. Christensen-Dalsgaard, T.P. Larson,
J. Schou & M. J. Thompson.
17.21: “A Decade of Diminishing Sunspot Vigor” by W. C. Livingston, M. Penn
& L. Svalgard.
18.04: “Whither Goes Cycle 24? A View from the Fe XIV Corona” by R. C.
Altrock.
Source:
Southwest Research Institute Planetary Science Directorate
http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release/SPD_solar_cycle_release.txt
Supplemental images: http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release/
Olavi says:
June 14, 2011 at 10:08 pm
> Well. . . Russian Habibullo Abdusamatov told this in 2005. So what’s the point?
> http://www.gao.spb.ru/english/astrometr/index1_eng.html
Confirmation is an important part of the scientific method.
I’ve got a theory. Those all-powerful aliens who observe and nurture our nascent civilization, they didn’t like where it has been going lately (namely, toward self-destruction by the way of the collective guilt-trip). They don’t want us to die out just because some crooks saw an opportunity to make big bucks on human stupidity again. They like Bach’s music, Persian rugs, Perelman’s geometric algebra, etc., and hope for more stuff like that in the future. Which isn’t coming if we invest all our money and efforts in whirligigs until all Earth looks like a used car dealership. Therefore, they decided to show Mr. Gore and Dr. Hansen one huge green middle finger, and shut down the Sun for a while — just to give us a chance to sober up and stop loathing ourselves so much. “Set the control in the heart of the Sun,” as Pink Floyd prophesied.
Do you think my theory has a chance to be published in Nature or Scientific American? Given the absolute junk these magazines peddle as “science”… My only problem, alas, is peer review. In my case it’s impossible. I have no peers. I am peerless.
It’s still not hit the BBC yet. Surprise, surprise.
Well, I did figure out that the global warming observed (from ca. 1974) is natural.
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/henrys-pool-table-on-global-warming
What still puzzles me though why there was no warming in the SH (the first 5 stations in the tables)
It all happened on the NH.
Anyone here with an idea on that?
Theo Goodwin says:
June 14, 2011 at 5:55 pm
R. Gates,
Don’t you think it is strange that the topic of this forum is the AAS announcement about solar activity and you talk endlessly about sea ice?
———————–
At least he hasn’t mentioned “snowball earth” or “non-condensing GHGs” yet. A true master of misdirection , diversion and ‘spotty’ logic.
Mountain snow packs in the Pacific Northwest are far above normal for this date. See the link to SNOTEL for water content equivalents in the Columbia River Basin. My local basin is 304% of normal. We have had overcast, clouds, rain and snow all spring and the solstice is fast approaching.
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?textReport=Columbia+River+Basin&textRptKey=17&textFormat=SNOTEL+Snow%2FPrecipitation+Update+Report&StateList=Select+a+State&RegionList=17&SpecialList=Select+a+Special+Report&MonthList=June&DayList=14&YearList=2011&FormatList=N0&OutputFormatList=HTML&textMonth=June&textDay=14&CompYearList=select+a+year
Olavi says:
June 14, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Reminds me of the efforts of Picard at the Observatorie de la Paris making as precise measurements of the Solar Diameter as he could possibly muster. He was way ahead of his time. Something to look into.
I am waiting for the first Politician to latch on to this, anyone for a Sun Tax, or a Freeze your Nuts off Tax.
This may or may not be a Theory to disprove AGW but the ‘One Global Govt’ movement have no shame and will just swap ships.
Reading the comment above this one, I hope, (Richard G @ur momisugly 11:01), I wonder if the climate models (sorry, Mosh another failure on their part) deal with the altitude of precipitation. Higher altitude precipitation means more albedo.
Make that Four lines of evidence. Unless they are going to continue to ignore the line of evidence which successfully predicted the solar slowdown many years in advance.
Another feather in the cap of the Solar-Planetary theorists.
What was the name of the 15 year old girl that had the school essay called “Ponder the Maunder? It is now hosted on http://www.globalwarminghoax.com/e107_plugins/content/content.php?content.6
I just went back for another read and the first picture accompanying the essay is interesting in light of the above article and comments!
let’s see … for the longer term history of earth’s climate :
were there periods during ice ages when CO2 levels were elevated from the current AND
any evidence such sub periods influenced climate from the boundary conditions and FW or REV in
either quote direction un quote ? ?
my concluded reaction is that this increase in GH gasses is going to be swamped by our star’s influence
upon the planet’s climate. i see how it’s one of the few remaining IF’s the AGW types have to hang their
hats on.
@ur momisugly Henry P:
Heat leaving a system that stores heat in the ocean might decide to leave over the landmasses. There is an abundance of landmass on the NH compared to SH.
curses, it’s the hard carriage return come to bite me
From the following article: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/06/14/ice_age/page2.html
“The big consequences of a major solar calm spell, however, would be climatic. The next few generations of humanity might not find themselves trying to cope with global warming but rather with a significant cooling. This could overturn decades of received wisdom on such things as CO2 emissions, and lead to radical shifts in government policy worldwide.”
Says it all really …
Steven Mosher said, “funny how skepticism about models and predictions all fly out the window.”
Come on Steve! You of all people know that models are the result of data and statistical methods. I use several models in my electrical engineering work. All work exceedingly well.
It is the data and use of RE etc, used in the “Climate Models”, that has been questioned by the likes of McIntyre and many others and has led to the distrust!
If the warmists are right then we need more CO2 not less, otherwise it’s going to be a long winter.
Henry P : The warming in the Northern hemisphere seems to mostly follow ocean cycles of the 60 year variety. S. Hemisphere is a big puzzle and with so much less data we can not even be as sure as to whether it has warmed or cooled. (Current data seems to indicate rather steady temperatures overall…) Spectulation could go wild on this front in reality, but I think the largest case to be had is that the geography of the S. hemisphere is what drives its differences between it and the N. Hemisphere. Lots of study is really needed if its even desired to figure out the mechanism of the S. Hemisphere.
Ice ages give us a fundamental clue in this difference, as the ice ages tend to happen more in the N. Hemisphere and do not seem to occur in the S. hemisphere except on a very limited scale, which indicates that most of the cooling/warming is due to ocean current differences between the hemispheres. (geography).
This is all speculation, in that there is evidence to support it, but its by no means a sure thing.
Same thing with this entire Solar max that will appear to be a min. Until the Max has passed, its nearly impossible to guess what we will see. I have said all along that it appears to be something on the order of Dalton/Mara and that time will tell us the truth. We do know several things though after over 100 years of mostly good coverage of the world with temps.:
The cool-down will take a decent amount of time. The oceans so to speak hold a lot of heat and will be able to release this gradually to make it appear that the cooling is sudden. We will have time to adapt. The first thing we need to do is not panic (which I will repeat as a message over and over again.) The cool down will be gradual. I expect some “exciting” things as far as our understanding of the climate goes.
But in that vein, now is the time to make it even more important to drive the idiots in charge of climate science into the ground. The Team as we call them (not all climate scientists, but the ones who engage in pseudo science and propaganda.)
They need to be removed from the puzzle quickly and there is no way we should allow them any say in the future. That being said, they can be given jobs chopping down trees for firewood for all I care, because they obviously lack the morals and/or the intelligence to be good scientists.
But back to what we can expect:
Glaciers therefore will not be outside NYC or London are not a threat in our lifetimes.
Temperatures will plummet over next few years since oceans are in their “recharging phase.” This is what has been causing the flare-up in the AO which has really been the driver of weird weather events. But this will be gradual and I expect if the solar effects start really effecting the climate that the oceans will go into a warming phase again as they attempt to equalize temps. Therefore, we can expect BRUTAL winters for awhile, but overall temperatures should be rather steadilly dropping. (All except GISS of course with one temp. gauge and a crazy Dr. Hansen standing over it with a blow-torch yelling “Fossil fuel trains are death trains…” But moving on…..
If you want to see what our climate compares to today, go look up the 1950’s. Its like a mirror image of what we see today. High AO, newly cold PDO, Atlantic getting ready to switch to cold…its like case in point to what is happening today. 1970’s can also point to some events, but by far 1950’s are a better fit. Expect a very bad hurricane season this year. The la nina track with rising heat from the Atlantic as the Nina weakens….just spells disaster especially for the E. Coast of the US. But what does further cooling indicate for hurricanes? Let me be the first to say: It depends. One year could be like last year, then this year happens and blows the previous years away. Weather happens, the temperatures are what people should be concerned about.
As for temperatures, we have no idea of the actual effects. We know it got colder (1600’s), and the dominant theory is the solar cycles (or lack thereof) but before people start a panic, realize that all along we have to adapt.
Fossil fuels we have plenty of. Energy and heat will not be an issue, crops will be. This is the issue with farming in general, but on the bright side, there is plenty of fallow land in areas that will still be good farming land even with say a 2C decrease in temps. overall. Future will unfold as it will. The losers in this case will be Russia and Canada who will lose farming land as a 2C decrease (in my mind worst case scenario) would cause all of Canada to basically be unfit for farming. But that is the future. Hold onto reality, don’t look too much into guesses on future climate…we can not truly predict the future, which is something I have always said to alarmists.
And like I said previously, its now time to up the anty even more and drive alarmists out of science. Do not forget what they did in the past…they will do it to us again in a heart-beat and if you let them screw you over a second time, you have only yourself to blame for not fighting it out now.
JPeden says:
June 14, 2011 at 9:59 pm
“Shouldn’t the Modellers do some more “experiments” and crank us out some new “facts” pretty soon?”
A new term is needed. A “model fact”? Or, since the debate is over, a more authoritarian “Modelfact”? Or just MF. But for Planetary Fever PR purposes, best not to mention it. Facts are facts, and there are models that prove that.
Well the 20% increases this year and then 5% each year after that in energy bills here in the UK will be welcomed along with this news.
At least when the 10,000 die from the cold ti will bring the housing prices down, and make the enviro’s happy.
At least there will be no snow with the cold as AGW will make winters snow free.
benfromMO says:
June 14, 2011 at 11:52 pm
The cool-down will take a decent amount of time. The oceans so to speak hold a lot of heat and will be able to release this gradually
Good comment Ben. My simple model I built a couple of years ago agrees. Even if we get a Dalton style solar minimum, the solar heat stored in the oceans will see us through for a good while. Of course, that will be wilfully misinterpreted by the AGW loons to show the Sun has little effect on climate….
I would expect to see a 0.3-0.5C drop in the Northern Hemisphere over the next 25 years if the Sun stays quiet and we get a few more big volcanoes. Of course, that drop would be bigger than the Southern hemisphere will see.
Bad, but not catastrophic.
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/01/05/my-simple-solar-planetary-energy-model/
If this is true, and we are headed for a new Maunder type minimum, shouldn’t we be worried that it will get colder than even the little ice age as the current warm period, just ending, has a lower temperature than the medieval warm period? It seems to me that if we experience a similar drop in temperatures, but start from a lower point, we will end up colder than last time.
Thanks Antony for keeping us informed. My blog (in Icelandic) has information obtained here. http://agbjarn.blog.is/blog/agbjarn/
The Team are on to it with comments by Schmitt on MSNBC Cosmic Blog
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/06/14/6857473-solar-forecast-hints-at-a-big-chill
RC has their tame “little trolls” spreading the comments around. I picked up on a Australian newspaper blog.
Time to emigrate to the med before britain freezes!
That holiday home in Murcia may not be such a bad investment after all.
If you want to see a first response from the AGW “side” of the deabte, here is Gavin Schmidt’s early take, as reported on msn.
Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and one of the founders of the RealClimate blog, said the effects of solar activity on climate over the past 30 years have been “at the margin of what we can detect.”
“They are detectable in the high atmosphere, but when you get down to the surface, there is so much other stuff going on that it’s been really hard to get a clean signal,” he told me.
One of the reasons why so little is known about solar effects on climate is that the sun’s highs and lows have been within such a narrow range in recent history.
“If we were to see a return to what’s called Maunder Minimum conditions in the next 50 years or so, that would be interesting,” Schmidt said. “I think we’d learn a lot about solar physics and solar variability. … It’s going to be scientifically very exciting if all this pans out.”
Even then, however, he estimated that the effect of greenhouse-gas emissions would be on the order of 10 times as great. “What you might see over a 20- to 30-year period is a slight slowdown in the pace of warming,” Schmidt said. “In terms of how we should think about climate change prediction in the future, reducing emissions and so on, it really wouldn’t make much of a difference.”