by Bob Tisdale
THE EAST PACIFIC VERSUS THE REST OF THE WORLD
This month I’m going to start the update with the two graphs that represent the East Pacific and the Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. These datasets were discussed in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World.Both datasets have been adjusted for the impacts of volcanic aerosols, and both are smoothed with 13-month running-average filters to reduce the seasonal noise. The global oceans were divided into these two subsets to illustrate two facts. First, the linear trend of the volcano-adjusted East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W) SST anomalies since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 dataset is basically flat. The East Pacific linear trend varies with each monthly update, so with ENSO-related SST anomalies varying from La Niña toward zero, that trend will also rise slightly each month. But it won’t rise significantly up through the next El Niño.
(3) Volcano-Adjusted East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W)
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And second, the volcano-adjusted SST anomalies for the Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180) rise in very clear steps, in response to the significant 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño/La Niña events. It also appears as though the SST anomalies of this dataset are making another shift in response to the most recent ENSO event.
(4) Volcano-Adjusted Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180)
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The “July 2009 to Present” average varies with each update. As noted in the linked post, it will be interesting to see where that SST anomaly average settles out, if it does, before the next significant El Niño drives them higher.
The SST anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean, or approximately 33% of the surface area of the global oceans, have risen very little since 1982 based on the linear trend. And between upward shifts, the SST anomalies for the rest of the world (67% of the global ocean surface area) remain relatively flat. Anthropogenic forcings are said to be responsible for most of the rise in global surface temperatures over this period, but the SST anomaly graphs of those two areas prompt a two-part question: Since 1982, what anthropogenic global warming processes would overlook the sea surface temperatures of 33% of the global oceans and have an impact on the other 67% but only in response to the significant El Niño events of 1986/87/88, 1997/98 and 2009/10?
Back to the monthly update.
MONTHLY SST ANOMALY MAP
The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 SST anomalies for May 2011 downloaded from the NOMADS website. The contour levels are set at 0.5 deg C, and white is set at zero.
May 2011 SST Anomalies Map (Global SST Anomaly = +0.132 deg C)
MONTHLY OVERVIEW
Monthly NINO3.4 SST anomalies are within ENSO-neutral conditions and continuing their rise toward zero. The Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly is -0.34 deg C.
The SST anomalies in Northern Hemisphere rose (about +0.07 deg C) this month. That rise was countered by a drop (approximately -0.04 deg C) in Southern Hemisphere SST anomalies. Global SST anomalies rose slightly (+0.009 deg C). The Global SST anomalies are presently at +0.132 deg C.
(1) Global
Monthly Change = +0.009 deg C
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(2) NINO3.4 SST Anomaly
Monthly Change = +0.322 deg C
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EAST INDIAN-WEST PACIFIC
The SST anomalies in the East Indian and West Pacific rose slightly this month.
I’ve added this dataset in an attempt to draw attention to what appears to be the upward steps in response to significant El Niño events that are followed by La Niña events.
(5) East Indian-West Pacific (60S-65N, 80E-180)
Monthly Change = +0.038 deg C
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Further information on the upward “step changes” that result from strong El Niño events, refer to my posts from a year ago Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1 and Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2
And for the discussions of the processes that cause the rise, refer to More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 2 – La Nina Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Nino Events AND…During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents -AND- More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 3 – East Indian & West Pacific Oceans Can Warm In Response To Both El Nino & La Nina Events
The animations included in the post La Niña Is Not The Opposite Of El Niño – The Videosfurther help explain the reasons why East Indian and West Pacific SST anomalies can rise in response to both El Niño and La Niña events.
NOTE ABOUT THE DATA
The MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SST anomaly data from December 1981 to May 2011, as it is presented by the NOAA NOMADS website linked at the end of the post.
MONTHLY INDIVIDUAL OCEAN AND HEMISPHERIC SST UPDATES
(6) Northern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = +0.067 deg C
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(7) Southern Hemisphere
Monthly Change = -0.037 deg C
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(8) North Atlantic (0 to 75N, 78W to 10E)
Monthly Change = +0.050 deg C
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(9) South Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)
Monthly Change = -0.150 deg C
Note: I discussed the upward shift in the South Atlantic SST anomalies in the post The 2009/10 Warming Of The South Atlantic. It does not appear as though the South Atlantic will return to the level it was at before that surge, and where it had been since the late 1980s. That is, it appears to have made an upward step and continues to rise. Why? Dunno—yet.
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(10) North Pacific (0 to 65N, 100E to 90W)
Monthly Change = +0.083 Deg C
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(11) South Pacific (0 to 60S, 120E to 70W)
Monthly Change = +0.042 deg C
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(12) Indian Ocean (60S to 30N, 20E to 120E)
Monthly Change = -0.006 deg C
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(13) Arctic Ocean (65N to 90N)
Monthly Change = +0.047 deg C
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(14) Southern Ocean (90S-60S)
Monthly Change = -0.071 deg C
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WEEKLY SST ANOMALIES
WEEKLY NINO3.4 SST ANOMALIES
The weekly NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies have risen well above the threshold of a La Niña, and are quickly approaching zero. The NINO3.4 SST anomaly based on the week centered on June 1, 2011 is -0.207 deg C.
(15) Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomalies
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The weekly global SST anomalies are at +0.105 deg C.
(16) Weekly Global
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SOURCE
The Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh
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Paul Vaughan says:
June 7, 2011 at 8:48 pm
Flow is driven by ABSOLUTE pole-equator heat differentials, which vary ANNUALLY & SEMI-ANNUALLY.
As well as decadally over the solar cycle. And centenially over the Gleissberg cycle. And over the course of iceage/interglacial cycles coinciding with changes in Earth’s orbital and orientation parameters which affect levels of solar input to key georaphical areas.
We see similar oceanic behaviour at vastly different timescales as it responds to similar external stimuli.
http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/interglacial-elnino.jpg
Including some hiccups caused by reversals in multidecadal trends in LOD, solar activity, and the interactions of Milankovitch cycles along the way which cause phase shifts:
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/sidc-ssn/from:1930/to:1980/mean:37/scale:0.002/offset:-0.3/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1930/to:1980/mean:37
Climate is complicated. No wonder there are plenty of ways it can be interpreted, with those interpretations giving rise to a number of differing hypotheses.
Which is maybe why Bob takes the Newtonian approach.
“I frame no hypotheses” Newton famously said. No wonder, given the lack of an underlying physical mechanism for the law for which he is most famous, that of gravity.
Bob describes what he sees, not what he thinks causes what he sees. So we get a value free analysis we can use for our own purposes, for which I’m grateful.
Manfred says:
June 7, 2011 at 11:06 pm (Edit)
Arno Arrak says:
June 7, 2011 at 9:48 am
“What they have done in the first graph is to raise the temperature for the Pinatubo and El Chichon periods to compensate for an imaginary “volcanic cooling” that does not exist. Read pp. 17 to 21 in my book”
Could you expalin in a few words, why it does not exist ?
Because the ocean compensates for them by releasing a tiny amount more of the vast reservoir of heat it contains.
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/08/05/volcanos-dont-cause-global-cooling/
Bob Tisdale says:
June 7, 2011 at 2:24 pm
If you can’t find the volcanic aerosol signal in the global land and sea surface temperature records,
I’m sure we can find some. Just as we can find solar signals as well. In the case of Pinatubo, there was a huge drop in solar activity (TSI levels not just sunspots) at around the same time. I think you should acknowledge there may be a conflation of causes here. Big Lulls in solar wind coincide with cold spells, as Ulric and Piers keep telling us.
http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/pinatubo-temp-tsi.png
Paul Vaughan says: “What ON EARTH could be causing Tisdale’s Steps?”
The upward steps occur primarily in the East Indian-West Pacific Ocean and in the North Atlantic. For the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans, it’s the warm waters released by the corresponding El Nino events of 1986/87/88 and 1997/98. I first discussed this in the two-part post:linked under the heading of East Indian-West Pacfic:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2009/01/10/can-el-nino-events-explain-all-of-the-global-warming-since-1976-%e2%80%93-part-1/
And:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2009/01/11/can-el-nino-events-explain-all-of-the-global-warming-since-1976-%e2%80%93-part-2/
And for the processes that cause the upward steps, refer to:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2009/11/26/more-detail-on-the-multiyear-aftereffects-of-enso-part-2-%e2%80%93-la-nina-events-recharge-the-heat-released-by-el-nino-events-and/
And:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2009/12/08/more-detail-on-the-multiyear-aftereffects-of-enso-part-3-%e2%80%93-east-indian-west-pacific-oceans-can-warm-in-response-to-both-el-nino-la-nina-events/
For the North Atlantic, it’s those same El Nino events imposed on the AMO-induced high trend.
Manfred and Tallbloke: Arno Arrak claims the dip in surface temperatures in 1991 was caused by a La Nina event, not the eruption of Mount Pinatubo:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/10/on-the-differences-between-surface-and-tlt-datasets/#comment-505650
And as I’ve discussed with him on prior occassions, there is no evidence in the instrument record of a La Nina event occurring then. The Sea Surface Temperature, Ocean Heat Content, Sea Level Pressure, Thermocline Depth, etc., all indicate a multiyear El Nino event.
Anomalies all lie within the measurement error bands so are not reliable as indicators of climate or any other change.
Paul Vaughan (June 7, 2011 at 8:48 pm)
“Flow is driven by ABSOLUTE pole-equator heat differentials, which vary ANNUALLY & SEMI-ANNUALLY.”
tallbloke (June 8, 2011 at 12:03 am)
“As well as decadally over the solar cycle.”
It’s not a gentle ongoing push that occurs smoothly all-year-round, as regions are hammered seasonally with cloudiness, monsoons, snow, & ice.
The decadal patterns aren’t in the mean but rather in the amplitudes of the annual & semi-annual variations (OBSERVATION, not conjecture). There’s a hierarchy of organization. The semi-annual features are organized into clustered bundles that vary in character decadally (OBSERVATION, not conjecture).
Freeze/thaw cycles heave roadways & cause rocks to exfoliate. When I was a kid, I rode a rural school bus. We used to fight for the back seat in spring so we could have fun flying into the air as the bus bounced over frost-heaves in the road. The frost heaves were in the same locations every year (for example where the road went through a swampy area).
The discussion cannot advance if discussion participants refuse to do anything other than think in anomalies. Heat pumps & hydrology are functions of ABSOLUTES hammered annually & semi-annually by orbital parameters. During solar maxima, hammering amplitude is reduced (lower pole-equator heat-differentials).
We can’t just “smooth over” the annual stuff if we want to understand the dynamics, as water’s behaviour changes both dramatically & abruptly with changes of state.
Observation has drawn attention to variations in hammering amplitude.
—
tallbloke,
I request clarification on the following:
1) You assert (your analogy – not saying I agree with its accuracy) that the tail (atmosphere) does not wag the dog (oceans), but then you [seemingly inconsistently] go on to emphasize the role of the sunshade in the sky (clouds) in controlling the sea.
2) What is represented by the 2 curves in the LOWER panel here?
http://tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/interglacial-elnino.jpg
Regards.