Last weekend, I took my familiy on a trip to see the Lava Beds National Monument (the kids had a great time exploring the lava tube caves) and also a stop at Crater Lake. Crater Lake happens to have a USHCN weather station, and it is one of the few stations that GISS excludes (they have an exclusion code for it in their software Mosher located some time ago). This is what the station looked like in fall 2007 when I visited:
And here it is was on May 29th, 2011, from approximately the same view:
My lovely wife, who is a better photographer than I am, (and lighter on her feet) took a hike to the top of the snow and got this photo:
Note the rain gauge on the stilt tripod and the tracks leading to it. That was placed there by park staff in an effort to catch May rains…except, it was snowing the day we were there. There is also a snowboard to catch fresh snowfall to the left of the tower.
Note the Stevenson screen has been elevated on the tower, here is a closeup:
Note the MMTS thermistor temperature shield on top of the Stevenson Screen (circular plates), an addition since 2007. It moves up and down the tower with the screen based on snow depth.
How much snow was there at the end of May? A closeup of the snowpole gives a value:
Snow depth on May 29th, 2011, just shy of 10 feet.
The posted weather statement in the visitor’s center is enlightening:
Snow depth, 213% of average. One wonders if it will melt before winter sets it.
Here’s the COOP snowpack last day of melt in graphic format:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/CrLkSnPack.GIF
Missing are the years 1923, 1925, 1926, 1929, 1945, 1946 & 1979.
IPS Record of Climatological Observations has everything prior to 1992 offline.
http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html
until July.
So, one cannot check the original observations for any clues as to those years.
“Notice: NCDC is working toward restoring access to the full period of record for all IPS documents as quickly as possible. Full access is not expected until mid-summer (July). We apologize for any inconvenience.”
Since when does it take 2 months to restore a server from backup? In a pig’s eye.
Inconveniently Convenient.
R Gates,
Well, well,well. An ice free Arctic ‘this century’? But not long back it was by 2120 or perhaps 2130 or maybe 2140, definitely 2150, but if not, 2160.
Still we can always move the goalposts!
Snow as shown is not unusual but if it lasts it might make the park’s global warming message a tough sell this summer.
Tom in Florida says:
June 5, 2011 at 9:52 am
“Meanwhile, down in the south central Gulf coast of Florida I was a bit chilled swimming in the Gulf yesterday morning. Seems the water wasn’t yet quite up to the 84 F I am used to at this time of year.”
That is truly astounding! Summertime begins May 1 in Central Florida.
R. Gates says:
June 5, 2011 at 12:25 pm
“There’s just one small fly in the ointment…”
You are joy deficient. Enjoy the snow! That’s what Anthony is doing. That’s part of his genius.
Dave Andrews says:
June 5, 2011 at 2:29 pm
R Gates,
Well, well,well. An ice free Arctic ‘this century’? But not long back it was by 2120 or perhaps 2130 or maybe 2140, definitely 2150, but if not, 2160.
Still we can always move the goalposts.
___
True, it seems the positive feedback mechanisms are far more active and numerous in the arctic than GCM’s had modeled a few years ago (as is usually the case when trying to model a system exhibiting spatio-temperal chaos). So, yes, it seems we’ll have an ice-free arctic sooner than most models forecast just a few years ago…so there has been a change in degree, but not direction. One of those recently discovered positive feedback mechanisms is the rate of heat transferred through the melt ponds in the Arctic. See:
http://www.igsoc.org/annals/v52/57/a57A101.pdf
But Anthony is a great weather reporter, and it’s nice to see him enjoying the snow at Crater Lake. If (in the unlikely chance) that the snow lasts through the summer and it becomes a trend, then we might see the beginning of a change in climate. In the meantime, many communities in the west are dealing with high run-off levels and potential floods as all that heavy snow is melting pretty fast in many areas.
tom T says:
June 5, 2011 at 12:42 pm
I have it on good authority from a commentator here at WUWT that snow is caused by warmth. Since no one was able to convince him he was wrong I guess he must be right. It is 90 here in Florida so I expect a blizzard any moment.
_____
Can’t imagine who would have said that snow is “caused” by warmth, as they surely have their facts and physics a bit wrong. Certainly we know that snow accumulation rates as measured from ice cores records shows that accumulations are greater during warmer periods when compared to cooler periods. But only a complete fool would interpret these findings as saying that warmth causes snow– for that is not at all what they say. Now some people are confused about the issue of snowfall accumulations, which we’ve seen record amounts of this year, and glacial growth. I can’t imagine that you’re one of those people though. Or perhaps you’ve misquoted this WUWT poster…we’ll assume that is the case.
R. Gates says:
June 5, 2011 at 3:12 pm
Certainly we know that snow accumulation rates as measured from ice cores records shows that accumulations are greater during warmer periods when compared to cooler periods.
I’ll see your unlinked certainty and raise you a Crater Lake, OR snowpack http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/CrLkSnPack.GIF
there’s just as much snow possible in cold AND warm phases of the PDO.
I call your bluff.
Thanks for remembering that Anthony.
In addition to crater Lake there were 4 other northern california stations that GISS had removed from the data. In the paper Hansen merely says this
‘
The strong cooling that exists in the unlit station data in the northern California region is not found in either the periurban or urban stations either with or without any of the adjustments. Ocean temperature data for the same period, illustrated below, has strong warming along the entire West Coast of the United States. This suggests the
possibility of a flaw in the unlit station data for that small region. After examination of all of the stations in this region, five of the USHCN station records were altered in the GISS analysis because of inhomogeneities with neighboring stations (data prior to 1927 for Lake Spaulding, data prior to 1929 for Orleans, data prior to 1911 for Electra Ph, data prior of 1906 for Willows 6W, and all data for Crater Lake NPS HQ were omitted), so these apparent data flaws would not be transmitted to adjusted periurban and urban stations. If these adjustments were not made, the 100-year temperature change in the United States would be reduced by 0.01°C”
Well, I wanted to see the analysis, the code, that was used to make this determination that these stations were flawed. Gavin basically said the paper documented everything, but these words don’t tell me HOW it was done. It just says THAT it was done. Any way that was pretty much why I wanted the code released. When it finally was released, you will see that there is no analysis supporting the removal of these stations. Upon inspection you can see some flakey stuff with the stations, but I was looking for math that quantified the flakiness. In the end, these were excluded by hand.
The argument of course is that including them or excluding them amounts to a tiny difference. That argument never held much water for me. The question, in my mind, was how many other flakey stations were there and was there math that could detect it? I think thats a good question. It doesnt make me doubt the record, I just think its a good question.
Dave Andrews says:
June 5, 2011 at 2:29 pm
Well, well,well. An ice free Arctic ‘this century’? But not long back it was by 2120 or perhaps 2130 or maybe 2140, definitely 2150, but if not, 2160.
========================================================
Dave, I ‘m with you on that one.
They tried to make the Arctic Ice the poster child for global warming.
How can anyone make a claim with a straight face that ice conditions in the Arctic are either historically low or high when we’ve only been recording these levels for the last 35 years?
The North West Passage was navigated 60 and 100 years ago.
Yikes! That seems like a lot more snow than when I was at Crater Lake around this time of year in 2007.
So, how were the mosquitoes? They ran me off last time! 😉
Here in Eugene, it’s been like February until just the last couple of days. Finally made it into the 70s.
Rhodies were later than usual this year, as well as the osprey who live near me on the Willamette. I dunno when I’ll start fishing. The McKenzie is still cold, high, and off color.
hot Hot HOT!
While others are enjoying some unseasonably cool weather (that I envy), we saw 100 degrees F. (unofficially) at my locale here in the DFW area … Hot! But fairly dry (60’s dew point).
A series of pop-up T-storms and accompanying outflow has brought the temperature at the moment to a more seasonable 89 degrees … for that we are thankful.
.
I am here to confirm it really was snowing at the Edmonton International Airport when I arrived at 12:30 a.m. on June 4th. I had traveled from Michigan (beautiful spring weather) – flew to Phoenix, AZ (95 degrees) and then landed in Edmonton (36 degrees Fahrenheit & snow flurries – even took a picture as proof).
Werner’s Sister
Thanks for the snow report.
While you were out looking at the lava tube caves, did you see the one where there was a concrete structure in it. Seems the state built a safe there during WWII to place some state documents for safe keeping. Nothing is remaining except the concrete today. I found that out talking to a local at the Millican store on our way to Pine Mt. Observatory after the cave experience.
There’s a whole area called Devil’s Garden out there that is a great place to explore all though the roads are quite rough. I was lucky to once be on a guided tour with a U of O Geologist. The Roadside Geology of Oregon and Fire Mountains of the West books from Mountain Press have good introductions to the area.
Steven Mosher says:
June 5, 2011 at 6:00 pm
The COOP data for Orleans, CA:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/Orleans.GIF
Orleans is a small town on the Klamath River, with wide benches.
My grandfather had property out there in the 1920’s, and the pictures then look just like it does now. Frozen in time… perfect for station data.
There are no other stations anywhere near that place that record back prior to 1912.
1903 to 1910 looks like a siting or instrument issue, but that’s no reason to toss out the entire data set.
wolfwalker says: “I have to say (very reluctantly) that this isn’t one of your more convincing efforts, Anthony. Crater Lake is well known to be a snow-trap. Snow has been recorded there in every month of the year.”
–Except that snow packs still linger over much of the higher terrain in the northwestern U.S. Some of the summer camps for children in these areas are delaying their normal start time by a week or two.
Crystal Mt, just east of Mt. Rainier, has a base of 70″ and is open for skiing. Their base on New Years day was 38″. Late April skiing is normally iffy, and May unusual. June?
The California runoff season has not yet started:
Snow Water Equivalents (inches)
June 03, 2011Provided by the California Cooperative Snow Surveys
Report generated: 06/03/2011 15:41
Summary By Section
Section
Today Yesterday
NORTH Number of Stations Reporting 30 0
Average snow water equivalent 31″ 0″
Percent of April 1 Average 109% 0%
CENTRAL Number of Stations Reporting 33 0
Average snow water equivalent 31″ 0″
Percent of April 1 Average 100% 0%
SOUTH Number of Stations Reporting 20 0
Average snow water equivalent 19″ 0″
Percent of April 1 Average 73% 0%
Statewide Summary
Statewide Average SWEQ 28″ 0″
Statewide Percent of April 1 97% 0%
The reservoirs are FULL.
Get ready for some action if the weather in the PNW decides to turn hot.
If the weather in the PNW decides to stay cold, we could see some serious glacier growth.
Perhaps someone could send this cool weather to Texas? We broke records here in Houston yesterday topping out at 105 degrees.
Cooling my happy ass!
Latitude said “How can anyone make a claim with a straight face that ice conditions in the Arctic are either historically low or high when we’ve only been recording these levels for the last 35 years? The North West Passage was navigated 60 and 100 years ago.”
A little fact checking is in order:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage
“The first explorer to conquer the Northwest Passage was the Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen. In a three year journey between 1903 and 1906” – That’s right, it tok him 3 years.
“In 1940, Canadian RCMP officer Henry Larsen was the second to sail the passage, crossing west to east, from Vancouver to Halifax. More than once on this trip, it was unknown whether the St. Roch a Royal Canadian Mounted Police “ice-fortified” schooner would survive the ravages of the sea ice. At one point, Larsen wondered “if we had come this far only to be crushed like a nut on a shoal and then buried by the ice.” The ship and all but one of her crew survived the winter on Boothia Peninsula. Each of the men on the trip was awarded a medal by Canada’s sovereign, King George VI, in recognition of this notable feat of Arctic navigation.
Later in 1944, Larsen’s return trip was far more swift than his first; the 28 months he took on his first trip was significantly reduced, and he took 86 days to sail back from Halifax, Nova Scotia to Vancouver, British Columbia,[40] setting the mark for having traversed it in a single season. The ship followed a more northerly partially uncharted route, and it also had extensive upgrades.” – An ice fortified ship, taking 28 months, then only 86 days with extensive upgrades.
So, true, the passage was traversed 100 and 60 years ago. But compare those crossings with this:
“In 2009 sea ice conditions were such that at least nine small vessels and two cruise ships completed the transit of the Northwest Passage.”
So, while it it true that satellite records go back only as far as 1979, the historical evidence also supports the claim that sea ice levels are historically low. Or at least the historical evidence that Latitude cited certainly doesn’t support the claim that they are not. If you don’t like wikipedia, follow the links to the primary sources.
John
I like the funny stuff you publish:
10” snow in approx 7000′ a.s.l. and you “wonder(s) if it will melt before winter sets it”.
I guess you never dealt with measuring snow covers in a mountain region before.
You should do it before you post your funny stories.
Oops!
10″ 10’…and 10′ was in the post, not 10″.
MFK, the “depth on ground” in the report shows 117 inches. Is this not almost 10′?
Are you implying the depth “gauge” is in inches??
I’m sure after they make adjustment you’ll discover that the temperatures in the second set of photos was substantially higher than the first.
Gareth Phillips says:
June 5, 2011 at 2:11 am
“Cold winters do not precipitate glaciers, it’s cold summers that do the trick.”
That’s the general understanding. One might reasonably ask why a small change of 4 degrees in axial tilt is enough to end or begin an interglacial period. Actually it’s that combined with changes in degree of orbital ellipticity. Each have different cycle times and big changes happen when they both align either perfectly in phase or perfectly out of phase. That’s the Milankovich cycle in a nutshell.
Axial tilt and orbital ellipticity don’t change how much energy the earth receives from the sun. It changes the ratio of energy received in the winter vs. that in the summer. When summers are cooler and winters are warmer that’s when the glaciers rule the planet and when the summers are warmer and winters cooler that’s when the glaciers retreat.
Once temperatures are below freezing it really doesn’t matter much from a glacier’s point of view how far below freezing it is. Any temperature below freezing is cold enough to halt melting. In the summer the glacier cares very much how much warmer than freezing it is because every increment upwards accelerates the melt rate. That’s why it’s not cold winters that spawn glaciers and why it’s cold summers that spawn them.
I just wanted to expand on what Gareth said and why it is correct even though it might seem non-intuitive.