The motivation for this cartoon comes from this essay on The Hockey Schtick, which was prompted by a post on David Stockwell’s blog Niche Modeling, which I highly recommend bookmarking.
As just pointed out by an astute and disillusioned young climate scientist, James Hansen, the high priest of the global warming religion and defender of creation has recently produced a non-peer-reviewed paper finding that the net man-made effects on climate have been greatly exaggerated by computer models. Hansen claims most climate models have underestimated the cooling effect of man-made aerosols via cloud changes, although the fine print in the paper admits they really have no idea what is causing the cloud changes and resulting cooling effect. Hmmm, possibly the cosmic ray theory of Svensmark et al? Hansen also references estimates for climate sensitivity pulled out of the air by his brainwashed grandchildren in the amusing paper (p. 3).
Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Implications
James Hansen (1), Makiko Sato (1), Pushker Kharecha (1), Karina von Schuckmann (2)
((1) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, (2) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
(Submitted on 5 May 2011)
Improving observations of ocean temperature confirm that Earth is absorbing more energy from the sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.59 \pm 0.15 W/m2 during the 6-year period 2005-2010, provides fundamental verification of the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change. Observed surface temperature change and ocean heat gain constrain the net climate forcing and ocean mixing rates. We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be -1.6 \pm 0.3 W/m2, implying substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud changes. Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large [negative] forcing is untenable, as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change. A recent decrease in ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum. Observed sea level rise during the Argo float era can readily be accounted for by thermal expansion of the ocean and ice melt, but the ascendency of ice melt leads us to anticipate a near-term acceleration in the rate of sea level rise.
Sorry Jimbo, near-term sea level rise is decelerating
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What did I tell you.
Despite this the UK Met. Office still want a bigger computer.
Why does the cartoon show Hansen in a suit and tie? I like the floppy hat and trench coat better. You know, the “I got arrested with Daryl Hannah” look.
Why do his pronouncements sound more like legalese than science?
One day they will finally discover that CO2 has nothing to do with climate. Let’s just wait 25 years.
I note he is still propounding the “delayed rebound effect from Mt Pinatubo aerosols” thing. That is a pretty contrived and dubious explanation in my opinion.
Hmmm… So the models are bollox. Ok. And why are they bollox ? Because they underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. So humans are causing Global warming, Global cooling and Global climate model confusion. Us humans really are a nasty bunch !!
Can someone please tell me what “delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols” really means? Why was this effect delayed? (from 1991 to 2005?)
Sounds like rubbish to me, but I am willing to learn.
“We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols.” Let me get this straight, the models do this all by themselves, whithout any anthropogenic influence? In this world of the climate ‘scientists’, the models take on a life of their own. Can it be that the underlying ‘science’ (assumptions) that is input into the models is incorrect? By saying that the models performance is incorrect absolves the modelers of any responsibility.
Since aerosols are saving the planet from burning up, I guess we will have to leave poor Third World children die because of soot-induced respiratory diseases.
We are being set up for anthropogenic global cooling (AGC) caused by the recent increase in coal burning power plants in China and India. Western civilization will have to get rid of their coal burning power plants because China and India are to smart and will not. Back to the future boys and girls. It’s the 70’s all over again.
Keep Smiling 🙂
Jeff
The only temperature rise that Hansen is measuring comes from the steam wafting of his BS…
Hansen disappoints. – gavin.
Hansen the Coward Climate Clown: You just never know what’s he’s going to come up with next, but you can rest be assured it will be entertaining–as opposed to an enlightened erudite educator. (Visions of H the CCC in a clown suit driving around the center ring in a funny yellow car with a spray gun that shoots fake precipitation on the audience.) *laughter*
Unlike the South Asian version who love to spend their life in a high mountain cave contemplating their belly botton and the meaning of “is”, Western Guru’s wallow in hype, publicity, speaking engagements, demonstrations, lock-ups, psyentific studies on the essence and implications of CO2 in galactic weather patterns, and just love to appear on late night talk shows talking about all they’ve done since Jimma Car’teer was praysiedent. Go figure! There is more than one kind’a civilization on this here planet, ain’t there?.
Like Jeff Wiita says, I think James is just hedging his bets.
Hansen defames Lindzen in New Zealand:
http://pindanpost.com/2011/05/20/hansen-defames-with-absurd-slurs-reprinted-in-full/
Richard Treadgold answers, and Lindzen letter reprinted here in full…for passing on
Definitely suffering from catastrophic human-caused global climate models.
“Maurizio Morabito says:
May 20, 2011 at 3:59 am”
Not sure if you were being sarcastic or not however, these poor have many more threatening and worrying issues to face every day than mere soot in the air.
use more hair spray………………..
So exactly when did mother nature retire from the climate business?
The quoted text should read: “The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.59 +/- 0.15 W/m2…. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be -1.6 +/- 0.3 W/m2…”
+/-, not \p m
But it’s still gibberish. His “planetary energy imbalance” necessarily implies runaway global warming, but his aerosol “forcing” turns that into an even more runaway global cooling. It is Hansen’s reasoning that is on a knife edge, not the climate. The truth is that the average global temperature simply hasn’t changed over the period of the last 10 years or more (as CO2 has continued to rise), and “radiative forcing” (as practiced by climate scientists anyway) has shown itself to be a worthless concept, imposing an illusory instability upon an obviously stable system.
This is a bit off topic (sorry), but you’ve just got to watch this video, exposing some of the worst eco-fascists at this week’s seminar in Stockholm. This should make the rounds worldwide:
Green Fascists Exposed at Stockholm Symposium
A question about units:
What is the meaning of: “0.59 \pm 0.15 W/m2” ?
I read W/m2 as watts per square meter. The “0.59 \pm” bit has me stumped and googling didn’t help.
John Marshall says: May 20, 2011 at 2:15 am
What did I tell you.
Despite this the UK Met. Office still want a bigger computer.
It reminds me of a story I tell about stonehenge: once there were two kings who fought each other, eventually after many battles they decided to meet to discuss a peace. They set the date as “the first full moon after mid summer”.
On the aforementioned date, one king arrived at the prescribed place only to have to wait, and wait and wait. Believing he has been deliberately stood up, the king resumed the war.
Many years later, the two kings finally met to agree peace at which point they discovered that each had turned up at the appointed place at the first full moon after the solstice, but unfortunately each king’s astrologer had determined a different day for the solstice meaning that with the full moon so close, one had determined the solstice before the full moon and the other visa versa. Meaning they had both arrived at the meeting but 28 days apart.
So, after each king sacrificed their astrologer in a very cruel way, they appointed new astrologers and said: “work out a way to tell the exact date of the mid summer solstice (actually mid winter for stone henge but it ruins the story).
After much hushed and deep conversation, the two astrologers spoke to their respective kings, drawing breath they said: “the reasons our esteemed predecessors got the date wrong, is because our computers just aren’t up to the job. We cannot guarantee you the right date with the current technology (i.e. they stalled for time)
“well make one” said the king. To which the high priests said: “phhhwww … it’ll cost you It simply isn’t possible to predict such a thing without a massive massive computer … and it may take time”
So, for the next few generations the kings struggled away to build a computer which was up to the job of telling the exact day of mid summer solstice (see end**) and each time the kings thought it was nearly complete, the priests would add some other requirement needing more and more parts.
Well, eventually the kings began to suspect something was going on and demanded on pain of death that the calculating machines should finally be finished. So the priests duly met at Stonehenge and various other sites around the kingdoms, and as required, as the summer solstice approached they looked very busy, appearing to make lots of measurement of the sun using their wonderful piece of modern computer technology. And finally, in unison all through the kingdoms on one day the priests announced that the wonder of modern technology had determined the exact date of the solstice.
And everyone was happy. The kings could agree when they were to meet, the high priests could supply the day, the people saw the marvel of the modern technology forecasting the future, and the priests would no longer fear being slowly sacrificed.
And a few weeks later, as they had done before the “solstice” and they did each and every year after, all the priests met as usual … at which point the conversation went like this: “shall we call it 365 days this year? Aye … sounds about right … that’s 344 from today!”
** It isn’t possible to tell mid summer solstice in the UK because its always cloudy when you need to take a measurement and the sun doesn’t change its position enough to measure a change on the days around the solstice – latin “sun stays still”. So, even if you had a week of clear sunsets (extremely unlikely) without modern equipment to measure the 1/30 of a radius change between days, you can’t tell the exact day of the solstice.
I note that Hansen’s energy imbalance of 0.59 W/m2 is mostly based on an error in the number he is using for the Ocean Heat Content from the Argo network.
He is using 0.42 W/m2 from the Argo network while Josh Willis (who is in charge of the data) says it is only 0.16 W/m2 (and these numbers are on the same timeline).
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/02/07/where-is-the-missing-argo-upper-ocean-heat-data/
So you can drop Hansen’s 0.59 to 0.325 when the proper numbers are used.