It has been awhile since I’ve done a sea-ice report. That said, not much of note has been going on in the sea-ice arena, we are in that time of year when all of the years converge into a tighter grouping. But as usual, the race to forecast the minimum is on again. Will be be another Serreze death spiral media opportunity? Or will it be ho-hum- nothing to see here, move along?
JAXA AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent -15% or greater – click to enlarge
Anyone can submit a forecast to ARCUS, all you need is a rationale and you have to put your name on it. Even “SWAG” qualifies as a rationale, though there are many who will use models and statistical techniques to try predicting the sea-ice minimum.
I’m going to give WUWT readers an opportunity to make a forecast for submission, based on voting. See the poll at the end. I’ll run this poll each month in the week before the deadline, and we’ll see how we do as the minimum approaches. The value used by ARCUS is the NSIDC value as they say here:
The sea ice monthly extent for September 2010 was 4.9 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates.
So don’t be using the JAXA graph to forecast minimums, though it it useful for determining short term trends as it is more responsive than the NSDIC graph below, which is averaged.
Here is what past reports looked like:
Here’s the details on making a submission:
Call for 2011 Sea Ice Outlook Contributions – June Report (Based on May Data)
May 6, 2011
Call for 2011 Sea Ice Outlook Contributions June Report (Based on May Data) Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
Pan-Arctic Outlook submission deadline: Tuesday, 31 May 2011
Regional Outlook submission deadline: Friday, 27 May 2011
For further information, please go to: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php Or contact: Helen Wiggins, ARCUS Email: helen@arcus.org ——————–
The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) organizers are soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the first report of the season, the June report (based on May data). We encourage past and new contributors to participate. The organizers have planned for several improvements this year, including increasing attention to error estimates, addition of sea ice thickness information where available, additional outreach efforts, and further development of the “Data Resources” webpage (http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/data.php – please send any relevant links for us to add). We also have provided a tentative schedule for the entire season, which is available at the bottom of this message.
**ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins, ARCUS, at: helen@arcus.org, with the following subject lines, as relevant:
** PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK – [YOUR LAST NAME] REGIONAL OUTLOOK – [YOUR LAST NAME] OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC – [YOUR LAST NAME]
A Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and extracting images for the website – we will not edit your individual submission and will not post your Word documents.
SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK
Pan-arctic Outlook contributions should include:
1. Extent Projection Provide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers).
2. Methods/Techniques Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model ensemble runs, etc.).
3. Rationale Include a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.
4. Executive Summary Provide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in two or three sentences.
5. Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available) If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill, uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction. This year, we will add error estimates to the summary bar chart of outlook estimates, as appropriate. This year we would also like to include a brief discussion of ice thickness in the monthly reports, so please include any relevant information on ice thickness (or age), if available. Pan-Arctic
Outlook submission deadline: Tuesday, 31 May 2011. All Outlooks should be sent to: Helen Wiggins, ARCUS Email: helen@arcus.org
SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional Outlook contributions should include:
1. Region of Interest While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please specify which of the following the outlook applies to: Arctic Regions:
– Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
– East Siberian-Laptev Seas
– Kara-Barents-Greenland Seas
– Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait
– Hudson Bay
– Sea of Okhotsk
– Bering Sea Shipping Routes:
– Northwest Passage
– Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
– Arctic Bridge (Murmansk-Churchill)
2. Sea Ice Parameter Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phonological stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates, length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset, earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up) than those of summer 2010.
3. Outline of Methods/Techniques Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model, traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the estimate.
4. Estimate of Forecast Skill If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill, uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.
5. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional) What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your prediction? Regional Outlook submission deadline: Friday, 27 May 2011. All Outlooks should be sent to: Helen Wiggins, ARCUS Email: helen@arcus.org
TENTATIVE 2011 SEA ICE OUTLOOK SCHEDULE JUNE REPORT (using May data). Deadline for contributions: Regional – 27 May; Pan-Arctic – 31 May. Publish reports online: 10 June.
JULY REPORT (using June data). Deadline for contributions: 31 June. Publish reports online: 15 July.
AUGUST REPORT (using July data). Deadline for contributions: 29 July. Publish reports online: 12 August.
SEPTEMBER REPORT (brief updates based on August data). Deadline for contributions: 30 August. Publish reports online: 14 September. MINIMUM ANNOUNCEMENT – Based on the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s (NSIDC) announcement for minimum.
POST-SEASON SYNOPSIS (exact dates dependent on when minimum is reached). Deadline for contributions: early October. Publish post-season synopsis: late October. For further information on the Sea Ice Outlook, please go to: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php. Or contact: Helen Wiggins, ARCUS Email: helen@arcus.org
=================================================================
WUWT poll for sea ice forecast:
Use the WUWT Sea Ice Page to get your bearings before voting.
Only one vote per person, and I have engaged the security features to prevent vote stuffing. Poll will close May 30th at midnight PST, and the results will be submitted to ARCUS on the day of the deadline:
Pan-Arctic Outlook submission deadline: Tuesday, 31 May 2011
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I say +5.5 this year….
…I’m doing it the same way they do it with the multi-billion dollar computers
guessing a trend…………….
I said 5.4 to 5.5 , mostly because that’s what my dog thinks .
I would expect a moderate ice melt, with a minimum extent of 5.4 sq. kms. We have had a nice La Nina this winter. Cold ENSO events are usually followed by some recovery in extent, while El Nino years often produce extra ice melt (like in 2005, 2007 or 2010).
It is ‘very likely’ that NSIDC will publish something more alarming as a forecasted value.
Estimate: 5.6 million km2, plus or minus 0.2 million.
Method: SWAG + “wishcasting”
You should offer a prize to increase participation 🙂
Regards,
Ric
The problem with the above graphs are that they only show areas with >15% ice cover.
Suppose within an area, there is 14 % ice cover – the ice being in the form of icebergs. 9/1oths of the volume of those icebergs is below the surface .
Imagine those icebergs were chopped up into 10 equal pieces- that would more than cover the whole area….
I guessed in the 4.8-4.9 million km^2 range. Just a guess right now. I should pull out my sea ice spreadsheet and get serious soon.
Also, Tamino stated his method and estimate last year for this year’s minimum @ur momisugly 4.63 million km^2. Someone should place a vote for him. 😉
-Scott
It’s going to be a relatively cool year, in the northern hemi-schphere (in my mad, clownish inability to prognosticate) , so my actual SWAG is 5.8×10^6 km^2 (±0, you gutless pansies).
Anything that does not include ice volume as well as extent is……..well…..pointless.
Let us face it……it is all guesswork really. Always has been…probably always will be.
5m square kilometres – give or take 10%, depending on the weather.
Anything over that, the NSIDC will attribute to “freak weather conditions”. Anything under will be spun as a continuation of Mark Serreze’s death spiral. Yawn.
I am going for greater than 6 million (6.3). The weather patterns, both globally and in Australia (Cairns), are very reminiscent of the mid 1970’s.
For example, global flood, cyclone and tornado activity is very similar to 1974.
In 1974 there was a very positive sea ice anomaly in the Arctic region, facilitated in part by a north westerly wind pattern. I can see this happening again given the current atmosperic circulation conditions.
Marine_Shale
Currently looking like 4.4 million sq. km. + or – 200K sq. km.
I’ve wondered what effect the icebreakers have ferrying all these “teams” to look for the “rotten ice.”
I guess 5.1 to 5.2. based on the fact that I have $5.12 in my pocket.
After careful consideration of the effects that wind, currents, temperatures, icebreakers, tourists, soot?, sunshine, clouds, rambunctious polar bears, fleeing seals, might have on said extent.
I will await the results with great anticipation, expecting the extent to be larger than last year.
I went for 5.3 – 5.4. With all the cold that’s been experienced where people actually live, I don’t think there’ll be enough to make it a barnstorming year this year.
In the spirit of Mann I am forcasting +/- 20%
5 million sq km +/- 1 million km 🙂 You need a PhD to be this successful with forcasting!
I would guess a modest bounce back to the 2009 level, i.e. 5.2-5.3 M (that’s what I voted).
I voted for 4.9 to 5.0, a P.O.O.M.A.* number.
* POOMA stands for “preliminary order of magnitude approximation.” Really.
I thought the ice was gone already. I mean wasn’t Hillary just up there to save the ice?/sarc off
There will be no ice at all.
The Arctic Ocean will be full of tropical coral atolls.
We’re all doomed.
Who is this genius Wilson, who wasn’t even in the ballpark for 2010?
Anyone know when we might get Cryosat2 data?
The 2011 jaxa line through march and April looked eerily similar to the 2010 line.. just a lot lower. 2011 hasn’t had the huge melt that 2010 did but it’s still dropped a lot and hasn’t caught last year yet. I’ll be nervous until it does; thankfully there is little correlation between spring data and the September minimum. I’m not smart enough to guess anything though.
5.4
[snip]