Hockey team science wonk Dr. Michael Mann has released his hurricane predictions, just in time to pre-empt NOAA’s planned release of their forecast ,Thursday, May 19, 2011 – 11:30 a.m. ET.
ESSC Scientists make prediction for 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
ESSC Scientist Michael Mann and researcher Michael Kozar have released their prediction for the 2011 North Atlantic hurricane season, which starts on June 1st.
The prediction is for 16.25 +/- 4.0 total named storms, which corresponds to between 12 and 20 storms with a best estimate of 16 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here), including the corrections for the historical undercount of events (Mann et al., 2007, see PDF here).
The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) that the current warm sea surface temperture (SST) anomaly (0.90 C from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch, see SST anomaly image here) in the Main Development Region (MDR) in the North Atlantic persists throughout the 2011 hurricane season and (b) near-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific during boreal Fall/Winter 2011 (see ENSO predictions here) and climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in Fall/Winter 2011.
For the first year, Mann and Kozar are testing an alternative model that uses “relative” MDR SST (MDR SST with the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST. This model predicts a substantially higher 18.86 +/- 4.3 (i.e. between 15 and 23 with a best estimate of 19) total named storms.
In 2007, Mann and Thomas Sabbatelli predicted the exact number of named storms (15) for that season (see 2007 prediction). Mann and Sabbatelli predicted 8 to 15 named storms in 2009, with a lower range of 6 to 13 in the event of a strong El Nino (NINO3 anomaly +1 C or greater, see 2009 prediction). The 2009 season was relatively quiet with 9 named storms partially due to the development of a strong El Nino. Last year, Mann and Kozar predicted between 19 and 28 named storms, with a best estimate of 23 storms (see 2010 prediction). The National Hurricane Center identified 19 named storms during the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season (1 June 2010 to 30 November 2010).
References:
Mann, M.E., Sabbatelli, T.A., Neu, U., Evidence for a Modest Undercount Bias in Early Historical Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031781, 2007.
Sabbatelli, T.A., Mann, M.E., The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17114, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008385, 2007.
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We’ll see how it pans out. I’m sure when it is all over we’ll find some inverted sediments someplace.
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Is this simply a schoolyard game, guessing how many in a season? This advances science in what way?
Just asking but other than claiming a headline here and there it just throws more ridicule towards the “Models”!
My prediction is 12 plus/minus 4. If I win I want Mann’s job.
Eh, this grandly announcing forecasts which are actually just a summation of the historical statistics (mean +/- 1-sigma) is very tiresome. That they can’t even narrow the sigma with their grand models is the most telling part.
It reminds me of a con-job shown on TV in NZ a few years ago. Some guy was selling a service wherein he would supply a calendar of days and times at which to conceive to get a baby of the desired sex. A couple would fill in a questionnaire detailing dates of various biological events relevant to them and other info and his secret model would generate the calendar. For this service he took a modest sum, I think something lile $200. He was even so confident in his model that he generously offered a money-back guarantee if a couple got a baby of the wrong sex. There were of course glowing testimonials from happy customers and even those who were happy to get their money back (after all, they still got a baby).
Even a statistical moron can see why such a scheme was a gravy-train for this guy who needed to do no work to virtually ensure a return of $100 per client. These hurricane predictions are not much better, exploiting underlying unvarying statistics to make money/puff up a career at the expense of the rubes.
So what!
What does this numbers game prove apart from the fact that the producers need to get a life. Whatever the actual number of storms it will not prove climate change only the wide spread of natural variation within earth’s systems.
My prediction: The median average +/- a bunch. Sounds simple and yet I beat the models every time 😉
I have just started a new modeling system to predict the number of named storms during the Atlantic Hurricane season. I call it the Puppy Piddle Pad Prediction Mode (PPPPM). I took a Puppy Piddle Pad, sectioned it off into squares, then filled those squares using a random number generator for between 1-30. Once the Puppy Piddles on the Pad, the bulls eye number will be the prediction and the number of squares the Piddle bleeds over onto will be the +/- range. I will compare these results to the other modeling groups and the actual number at the end of the season. I am confident that by next year the PPPPM will be the preferred and most accurate model for predicting the amount of named storms during the Atlantic Hurricane season.
My prediction is for 6 named storms + or – 3 storms.
I also predict that Michael Mann will claim to be absolutely accurate with his prediction, regardless of the number because of the wide error bars and even wider wiggle-room over how these storms become “named”
To be sure of hitting the target, shoot first, and call whatever you hit the target.
” 16.25 +/- 4.0 ” named storms? Could someboidy PLEEAASE explain the concept of ‘cardinal numbers’ to these idiots? If they really mean “13 to 20” they should say exactly that. There can be no such thing as “0.25 named storms”.
Not that anybody’s listening…
Since Katrina the only common factor to the forecasts of storms for the North Atlantic Hurricane season has been their wild inaccuracy.
Mann’s making hurricane predictions?
I wonder what data he had to turn upside down to get his numbers?
That WOULD explain why there was no 2008 prediction – no-one would have believed a prediction of minus 15…
This chart seems to indicate a significantly lower average:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/hurricanes/fig1-atlantic-all-and-major.gif
I’m pretty sure the chart contradicts my memory (didn’t we run out of names a few years back?), so I think I may be reading it wrong. Does anyone have a historical chart of numbers of hurricanes that might be a bit more clear?