Hockey team science wonk Dr. Michael Mann has released his hurricane predictions, just in time to pre-empt NOAA’s planned release of their forecast ,Thursday, May 19, 2011 – 11:30 a.m. ET.
ESSC Scientists make prediction for 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
ESSC Scientist Michael Mann and researcher Michael Kozar have released their prediction for the 2011 North Atlantic hurricane season, which starts on June 1st.
The prediction is for 16.25 +/- 4.0 total named storms, which corresponds to between 12 and 20 storms with a best estimate of 16 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here), including the corrections for the historical undercount of events (Mann et al., 2007, see PDF here).
The assumptions behind this forecast are (a) that the current warm sea surface temperture (SST) anomaly (0.90 C from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch, see SST anomaly image here) in the Main Development Region (MDR) in the North Atlantic persists throughout the 2011 hurricane season and (b) near-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific during boreal Fall/Winter 2011 (see ENSO predictions here) and climatological mean conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in Fall/Winter 2011.
For the first year, Mann and Kozar are testing an alternative model that uses “relative” MDR SST (MDR SST with the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST. This model predicts a substantially higher 18.86 +/- 4.3 (i.e. between 15 and 23 with a best estimate of 19) total named storms.
In 2007, Mann and Thomas Sabbatelli predicted the exact number of named storms (15) for that season (see 2007 prediction). Mann and Sabbatelli predicted 8 to 15 named storms in 2009, with a lower range of 6 to 13 in the event of a strong El Nino (NINO3 anomaly +1 C or greater, see 2009 prediction). The 2009 season was relatively quiet with 9 named storms partially due to the development of a strong El Nino. Last year, Mann and Kozar predicted between 19 and 28 named storms, with a best estimate of 23 storms (see 2010 prediction). The National Hurricane Center identified 19 named storms during the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season (1 June 2010 to 30 November 2010).
References:
Mann, M.E., Sabbatelli, T.A., Neu, U., Evidence for a Modest Undercount Bias in Early Historical Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L22707, doi:10.1029/2007GL031781, 2007.
Sabbatelli, T.A., Mann, M.E., The Influence of Climate State Variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17114, doi: 10.1029/2007JD008385, 2007.
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We’ll see how it pans out. I’m sure when it is all over we’ll find some inverted sediments someplace.
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“In 2007, Mann and Thomas Sabbatelli predicted the exact number of named storms (15) for that season (see 2007 prediction).”
Sorry, but I’m not too impressed. The range is always about +- 4, so if every year say the number of named storms is going to be somewhere between 11-19, then you should get it “exact” about 10%+ of the time, just by throwing darts at a board. Obiously they didn’t get it exactly right in 2008, 2009, 2010 . . .
I regret to say that if Mann’s name is on anything, I distrust it intensely, as I distrust this paper.
The man is far too tainted to retain any respect or belief in his “findings”.
As far as I am concerned he is to be ignored totally.
Maybe he used his grants to pay for a statistics course.
Do they predict to rotate clockwise or counterclockwise?
yah, my prediction is …..let’s see……gasintas…..ciphering….multiply………figuring….
got it!!! ….. 17 +/- 5……. yes, I know its very bold…..phhttt.
I don’t think he’s doing a bad job. His low number is consistently close to the observed. His high number is just getting more ridiculous, in an effort to sell sensation to the media. On average he’s increasingly wrong, but has yet to be out of the ball park.
WTF does Mann know about hurricanes? Is he using PC analysis? I guess mysterious codes can be used to crunch any kinds of numbers.
Lets not get too negative here. Just because his main job is in the arts, producing works of historical fiction like the hockeystick, doesn’t mean the mann can’t also do a bit of science in his spare time. Everyone needs a hobby and I’d hate to see him completely wasting his scientific training.
Anyway, good on him for making a falsifiable prediction I say.
And really was that not the same year they dropped then critira for naming the storms so really??? well done mike and as you see no last name or dr. in front!!!
What is this?
Is he claiming competency and skill in yet ANOTHER field?
How is his ‘prediction’ any more accurate than a chimp’s or a dice toss?
Is this anything more than a ‘limelight grab’?
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“corresponds to between 12 and 20 storms” shouldn’t that be 13(12.25) and 20 (20.25) storms? 12 is outside the forecast.
I predict there will be 20 +/- 20 named storms for the next 20 seasons … where do I pick up my Nobel?
Count me with the underwhelmed.
> “ESSC Scientist Michael Mann and researcher Michael Kozar have released their prediction for the 2011 North Atlantic hurricane season, ”
Why should we care what Michael Mann makes up, being he is a person known for B.S. and deception?
> ” The prediction is for 16.25 +/- 4.0 total named storms, which corresponds to between 12 and 20 storms ”
Big deal, I predict there will be 365 days this coming year +/- 89 days…
Why don’t they make it a little challenging? How about the number that make landfall… and where… and what intensity? Accurately making those predictions would separate the men from the Mann.
Since he is soooo good with hockey sticks, I wish he’d give us a forecast for the outcome of the currently happening Stanley Cup playoffs.
Then he could be taken “seriously”.
ignore – following comments
What’s it got to do with Mann? Isn’t his forte looking into crystal tree rings to “predict” the past!
Expect a comment from Smokin’ Joe at WeatherBell.
http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/?p=1912
Well, the folks in and around the mouth of the Mississippi and points north, are certainly hoping nothing comes ashore in the next couple months in the flooded areas. A big rain maker hitting the area could very well push the Big Muddy into a new channel to the west, which would be a devastating blow to the national economy.
I thought hurricanes were just weather, not climate??
And is just predicting how many there will be anything more than a parlour game? What does one do differently if its said to be 20 not 10? What decisions actually change?
Mann wants to make predictions now? He’s changing his field of expertise from paleoclimatology to soothsaying? Well at least he’s moving into a “growth industry”.
Is Mann actually trained in hurricane forecasting ? Or is he just dabbling ?
Just curious as to why the SST anomaly chart on which Mann relies is so different from that produced by UNISYS at its SST anomaly site. There appears to be a particularly serious divergence in the GOM. Can anyone help this novice understand what’s going on?
Stephen Brown says: May 18, 2011 at 1:19 pm
I regret to say that if Mann’s name is on anything, I distrust it intensely, as I distrust this paper.
Distrust is that the right word?
Does one distrust a clown?
Well he’s usind a laundry tub to catch a tennis ball but I notice that his predictions have scored near the bottom of the range which may prvide a measure of the degree of over estimation he has on climate change, a hockey stick factor as it were. Therefore, using this guide, I predict 12 named storms for this season. I’m worried though that entering a cooling period, we may have storms like we did over 30 yrs ago.