I was very encouraged by this part of the story:
“If you look at the past 60 years of data, the number of tornadoes is increasing significantly, but it’s agreed upon by the tornado community that it’s not a real increase,” said Grady Dixon, assistant professor of meteorology and climatology at Mississippi State University.
“It’s having to do with better (weather tracking) technology, more population, the fact that the population is better educated and more aware. So we’re seeing them more often,” Dixon said.
But he said it would be “a terrible mistake” to relate the up-tick to climate change.
Full story here. h/t to Dr. Leif Svalgaard.
Hmmm, where have we heard that technology-population-aware argument before?
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This footage from near the University of Alabama, in my opinion a fascinating study of the human element…of a frightened college student in an amygdala-driven fight or flight mode….
….when facing a monster that is completely out of his frame of reference….a massive mile wide vortex with 260 MPH winds.
Note how his breathing slows down as it moves away.
As to the tornado itself, notice the highly organized classic wedge with the extremely destructive suction vortices spinning with accelerated violence around the main cyclone.
This is stunning footage…and a study from so many angles.
My condolences to all of those who lost friends or family.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Here, let me help the warmers. The tornadoes are caused by AGW driven warmer warm fronts colliding with not colder but “relatively” colder fronts because the warm fronts are warmer, so the cold fronts are colder.
The part that makes me spit really delicious Gnarley Head Zinfandel on my puter screen is when the warmers say, “exactly right”. And damn it, I hate spilling even one drop of Gnarly Head. Cheap wine (hey I’m on a budget so I can continue to drive me Jeep Cherokee through the mountains). Top notch taste.
For those who are not aware of tornado research, one of the most highly respected researchers is Harold Brooks. Here is an interesting paper in which Brooks et al. discuss the increases in tornado reports and possible causes – not meteorologically related.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF910.1
1. Weather is part of climate.
2. Tornadoes are part the weather.
3. The climate is always changing.
4. Therefore the weather is always changing.
4. Therefore, the severity, frequency, location, quantity of tornadoes is of course related to climate change.
The only issue is whether or not and to what degree some the climate change that is always occurring in the background anyway is as a result of human activities. Until we can answer that question, we can’t say for certain to what degree the severity, location, frequency, etc. of any given weather pattern that might include tornadoes is the result of human caused climate change…so the correct answer to this question is: We don’t know.
On the other hand….the thesis of this whole argument is a red herring.
It makes perfect common sense that the ephemeral nature of tornados make them hard to report….and that, with the increase of technology and population…they “seem” more frequent.
The red herring is, though, if the EF5 monster that just tore through a major college town in Alabama….were to hit a small town in the midwest in 1930….the story would still be the same: complete devastation.
Also…in the Nanny State in which we live, thanks to the ultra-egalitarian “No Severe Weather Event Left Behind” program of the NWS…with the modern computer-generated tornado “warnings” citing only “doppler-indicated tornado” or “storm capable of producing a tornado”….well they actually help Cry Wolf on this issue to the general public.
Then when a “real” tornado warning comes along….it might be too late for people have been desensitized to the false alarms of the past.
No two tornado warnings are created equal, that’s for sure….especially in a densely populated area.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Although a hurricane can certainly wreak widespread and deadly havoc…there is no atmospheric force on earth as instantaneously destructive…as an EF5 tornado.
An entire township….flattened in seconds.
Watch in the video….you see a real slice of America: whites, blacks, Asians, Mexicans….all stunned from the same loss.
http://video.tuscaloosanews.com/video/921666515001
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Don’t be too happy. I saw the weather guy on CNN today answer a question about tornados and climate change with some gobledygook about leaky arctic fences. Seriously? I couldn’t believe the idiocy he was spewing…
Um….hallelujah!
R. Gates says:
Until we can answer that question, we can’t say for certain to what degree the severity, location, frequency, etc. of any given weather pattern that might include tornadoes is the result of human caused climate change…so the correct answer to this question is: We don’t know.
========================
You will never EVER be able to “answer that question”.
And the fact that you would use this tragedy to [again] try and hijack a thread due to your preexisting political “views”…in light of the tragedy that has occurred….is reprehensible.
Maybe you should spend a little time concentrating on the science and physics and scale of what has just occurred….and just talk about it in and of itself…rather than put your own political vorticity on it.
Have you no respect? Can you not carry on a normal scientific conversation that is free and clear of political spin?
Do you not perceive the sheer magnitude of what has just happened?
I keep looking for a normal R Gates who is a real person who would just take in and analyze about what has happened.
And I get instead someone with a naive and preconceived opinion mouthing off as usual…as if the 300 lives were less important than that.
Learn your place in Nature, R Gates.
I will at least give you credit for contradicting your blatant “confidence” in posts pasts by admitting “we don’t know.”
Right….in comparison…..we really don’t know jack.
Nature continues to awe…and will do so many eons into the future.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Anthony,
I think you’re taking the wrong look at this.
I read this article this morning and came to the exact opposite conclusion that you came to. I’m disappointed in this reporting. You can tell by the quotes given in the article that the questions all these reporters were asking are “Is this related to climate change?”
It’s only a matter of time before they find the right person to quote…
Wind damages wind turbine:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/turbine-output-gone-with-the-wind/article2003079/
Have been watching the newscasts here in Aus about these storms, really quite remarkable and sad at the same time at the loss of life and damage to communities etc. However, I am sure that if “Climategate” had not happened these events would be blamed on AGW in the MSM. You can see newsreaders just gagging for the opportunity to use terms like AGW or climate change in their articles, but they don’t. Just “Mother Nature” or “extreme weather”.
It is only over the last three years or so I have started to learn anything about weather and climate and that has been conducted entirely through my internet connection.
On a warming world the temperature/energy differential between the equator and the poles reduces (poles warm more than equator) and thus wind circulation patterns decline.
On a cooling world poles lose more heat (relative) than the equator thus global wind circulation increases (bigger energy differential). More extreme weather events are to be expected on a cooling world. Not so?
@Dave Springer says: April 28, 2011 at 4:42 pm
“Well I’ll be darned. I guess the climate boffins aren’t quite as dumb as I thought and the can indeed learn from past mistakes. It was a mistake to say that hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 were the result of global warming.”
Exactly right. And not only Katrina and Rita but these Tornados too.
But I wish I had a Pound for every Greenie, every Journalist and every Politician who has made and continues to make (and will until hell freezes over) the claim that ‘it woz human CO2 wot dun it.’
It’s interesting that both 1974 and this year had many tornados in the US, and both years had flooding in Australia. Both 1973-1974 and 2010-2011 were moderate to strong La Ninas. La Nina generally causes storms to hit the Pacific Northwest and travel along the northern tier of the country before diving to the south. This spring, La Nina has kept the storm track very active in the north, causing storms to eventually make their way southward and cause the severe weather we have been seeing lately. La Nina may be the driving force behind both this year’s and 1974’s severe weather outbreaks.
Over at “Weatherbell” Joe Bastardi has often pointed out a spike in the number of tornadoes that occurred the last time the PDO shifted to its cool state, and a La Nina was occurring.
The population is much denser in the south now, but this is not a situation we haven’t seen before.
What we haven’t seen before is the amazing video, because the last time this occurred such cameras hadn’t been invented.
I blogged this to a previous post.
I have to say that the media are being more carefull about blaming global warming for the outbreak. However, you always get some speculation.
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/982425–is-climate-change-responsible-for-deadly-u-s-tornadoes?bn=1
I’m still waiting for Al Gore.
Reminds me of crime statistics.
Crimes on the up, horrible, something has to be done and probably the o u t s i d e r s did it.
In the alarmist world violent crime is down though so says the statistics so somebody has to be lying, eek it might be doctored, this needs more, way more, study money to study: up close and personal.
At the same time, in the real world, it turned out that people just had been reported their stolen expensive bicycles en mass way more, but alarmist didn’t wont to hear that, because, not even the cops cares about bicycles.
Tommy Roche says:
I really hope common sense prevails when reporting these tragic events, and that the story is not hijacked by those with an agenda to push.
Never fear, Tommy, it will be – just as always happens.
Very thorough article! If you enjoy learning about climate change and its effect on our Earth, you may wanna check out Penn State’s Dr. Richard Alley, (featured in Earth: The Operators’ Manual), his colleagues and their studies! In our interviews and programs on the scientist and his colleagues, they discuss their theories on climate change, its harmful effects and what we can do to prevent further damage to our Earth. Here’s the link: http://bit.ly/h8EY6q
Take care.
– Carrie
@R. Gates says: April 28, 2011 at 9:26 pm
[ ]
“The only issue is whether or not and to what degree some the climate change that is always occurring in the background anyway is as a result of human activities. Until we can answer that question, we can’t say for certain to what degree the severity, location, frequency, etc. of any given weather pattern that might include tornadoes is the result of human caused climate change…so the correct answer to this question is: We don’t know.”
One gets the same answer to just about every climate-related question that could conceivably be posed.
What we do know (but you might not care to accept) is that a stinking brew of hubris, activist dogma, incompetence and general dishonesty is unlikely to make things more certain.
And that spending Trillions on “solutions” (that self-evidently don’t work), to “problems” that “we don’t know” are real, doesn’t seem such a good idea.
Bob Tisdale pointed out the drop in U.S. coastal SST during the past several months. The Pacific cooling in that region has contributing to the cold air mass colliding with the warm moist air from the Gulf. No?
http://tinyurl.com/3mt9u94
i55.tinypic.com
TonyG says:
Tommy Roche says:
I really hope common sense prevails when reporting these tragic events, and that the story is not hijacked by those with an agenda to push.
Never fear, Tommy, it will be – just as always happens.
That didn’t take long: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/29/never-let-a-good-crisis-go-to-waste-tornado-deaths-blamed-on-lawmakers-opposed-to-climate-legislation/
http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2009/03/us-annual-tornado-death-tolls-1875-present/