By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow
As we reported, the eco-pressure group, the Union of Concerned Scientists, as part of a continuing misinformation campaign sponsored a teleconference yesterday with a very confused Jeff Masters of Weather Underground, opportunist Mark Serreze of NSIDC and a UCS environmentalist. Their performance was a scientific disappointment to say the least as one scientist wrote me “Masters lost all my respect. Serreze never had it”. He didn’t mention the UCS. It is the crazy uncle no one talks about.
The Union of Concerned Scientists recall had sponsored a workshop on Mt. Washington in 2007 in which they promised ski areas that snow would be hard to come by even in northern areas and they might consider another profession. That very winter, northern New England set a record for the greatest seasonal snow and ski areas had the best year in their history. Across the hemisphere that winter was surpassed only by 1977/78, 2009/10. Through January this winter, the Northern Hemisphere had more snow than any of those years and will rank likely in the top 5.
The UCS was not alone in predicting warming means less snow. NOAA in their CCSP and the EPA in their TSD said most cities with winter avergaes near freezing (the case of most metros in the east) would see more rain and much less snow. Recall the IPCC stated: “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms”. Recall RFK Jr. in 2008 promised DC children would be deprived of the fun of sledding due to warming – of course all-time record snows fell in 2009/10 and sleds and skiis were the only way to get around the DC area.
Now the alarmists have flipped their position claiming warming means more snow although it is a major stretch to think that would apply to Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, and Atlanta in a warming world. But back to the teleconference.
“Heavy snowstorms are not inconsistent with a warming planet,” said scientist Jeff Masters. “In fact, as the Earth gets warmer and more moisture gets absorbed into the atmosphere, we are steadily loading the dice in favor of more extreme storms in all seasons, capable of causing greater impacts on society.” “The old adage, ‘It’s too cold to snow,’ has some truth to it,” said Masters. “A colder atmosphere holds less moisture, limiting the snowfall that can occur.”
First of all the winter was colder than normal not warmer as can be seen by this preliminary analysis from NOAA CPC.
Second the global oceans are colder than normal, especially around the United States as seen from this UNISYS SST anomaly analysis.
Third the amount of moisture in the air this winter was below normal (blues) in all the areas that had abnormal snow.
The actual tropspheric precipitable water content from surface to 500mb shows most the tropical atmosphere has over ten times the water content of the polar and middle latitudes.
Marc Morano collated other scientist responses on Climate Depot. He adds (1) tropospheric relative and specific humidity has significantly declined since ‘safe CO2 levels’ of 1948, 2) atmospheric water vapor has declined since satellite measurements began in 1983, 3) there has been no statistically significant global warming since 1995.
The snow resulted from a rapid cooling as we went from a strong El Nino to a strong La Nina and high latitude blocking consistent with a warm AMO mode and a still quiet sun (maybe some residual help from the high latitude volcanoes of recent years). Global temperature anomalies may have plunged more than a whole degree (F) from their peak last summer and early fall. February 2011’s anomaly (UAH) came in as -0.018F relative to the 30 year average. Recall global temperatures lag ENSO by about 7 months. Global teleconnections are most similar to the late 1950s, 1960s and 1970s when frequent snowy cold winters caused the world to increasingly think an ice age was coming.
Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, said less sea ice in the Arctic translates to more moisture in the atmosphere, and could also cause an atmospheric circulation pattern in polar regions known as Arctic Oscillation.
“It’s still cutting-edge research and there’s no smoking gun, but there’s evidence that with less sea ice, you put a lot of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, and the circulation of the atmosphere responds to that,” Serreze said.
He would not know cutting edge research if he fell over it. Forecasters were using the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in forecasting temperatures for over a decade. It correlates very strongly with the Northern Hemispheric temperatures and with wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. Even the IPCC talks about the natural cyclical behavior of the AMO (60-70 year cycle). The warm AMO mode which began in 1995 biases the atmosphere towards a negative AO and NAO. It also contributes to less arctic ice as the warmer than normal waters near the Barents Sea work their way under the ice and thin it from the bottom. See.
Before Serreze took over NSIDC seeing the huge grant funding windfall opportunity, an honest scientist in their blog in 2007 admitted the roles of the oceans in arctic ice and the uncertainty that existed in the science:
“One prominent researcher, Igor Polyakov at the University of Fairbanks, Alaska, points out that pulses of unusually warm water have been entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic, which several years later are seen in the ocean north of Siberia. These pulses of water are helping to heat the upper Arctic Ocean, contributing to summer ice melt and helping to reduce winter ice growth. Another scientist, Koji Shimada of the Japan Agency for Marine – Earth Science and Technology, reports evidence of changes in ocean circulation in the Pacific side of the Arctic Ocean. Through a complex interaction with declining sea ice, warm water entering the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait in summer is being shunted from the Alaskan coast into the Arctic Ocean, where it fosters further ice loss.” Many questions still remain to be answered, but these changes in ocean circulation may be important keys for understanding the observed loss of Arctic sea ice.”
CO2 has nothing at all to do with it. Cold open arctic waters serve as a major sink of CO2 just as the warm tropical waters serve as a source. Roger Pielke Sr. suggests the ocean heat content (OHC) as a more robust measure of temperature trends. Models suggest OHC should be rising rapidly as the greenhouse gases build, especially in the tropics. Here is the buoy based OHC in the top 300 meters of the equatorial from NOAA (between 5 degrees north and south of the equator) Pacific from 130 E to 80W. During El Ninos, the eastern half is warm and the west cool, in La Ninas the eastern half is cool and the western warm. The fact there is not net warming, instead actually a slight cooling of the entire belt may the most damning proof that global warming is nothing more than a government funded political campaign.
Meanwhile, check out the interesting snow stories as we enter the last quarter mile of the winter season. Ask the people in these areas whether they think global warming is something to worry about.
And Central Park’s snowiest months:
Chicago had a helleva February.
Minneapolis is climbing the top ten list of snowiest winters.
As is Boston.
The UCS was not alone in predicting warming means less snow. NOAA in their CCSP and the EPA in their TSD said most cities with winter avergaes near freezing (the case of most metros in the east) would see more rain and much less snow. Recall the IPCC stated: “Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms”. Recall RFK Jr. in 2008 promised DC children would be deprived of the fun of sledding due to warming – of course all-time record snows fell in 2009/10 and sleds and skiis were the only way to get around the DC area.
Now the alarmists have flipped their position claiming warming means more snow although it is a major stretch to think that would apply to Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, and Atlanta in a warming world. But back to the teleconference.
“Heavy snowstorms are not inconsistent with a warming planet,” said scientist Jeff Masters. “In fact, as the Earth gets warmer and more moisture gets absorbed into the atmosphere, we are steadily loading the dice in favor of more extreme storms in all seasons, capable of causing greater impacts on society.” “The old adage, ‘It’s too cold to snow,’ has some truth to it,” said Masters. “A colder atmosphere holds less moisture, limiting the snowfall that can occur.”
First of all the winter was colder than normal not warmer as can be seen by this preliminary analysis from NOAA CPC.
Second the global oceans are colder than normal, especially around the United States as seen from this UNISYS SST anomaly analysis.
Third the amount of moisture in the air this winter was below normal (blues) in all the areas that had abnormal snow.
The actual tropspheric precipitable water content from surface to 500mb shows most the tropical atmosphere has over ten times the water content of the polar and middle latitudes.
Marc Morano collated other scientist responses on Climate Depot. He adds (1) tropospheric relative and specific humidity has significantly declined since ‘safe CO2 levels’ of 1948, 2) atmospheric water vapor has declined since satellite measurements began in 1983, 3) there has been no statistically significant global warming since 1995.
The snow resulted from a rapid cooling as we went from a strong El Nino to a strong La Nina and high latitude blocking consistent with a warm AMO mode and a still quiet sun (maybe some residual help from the high latitude volcanoes of recent years). Global temperature anomalies may have plunged more than a whole degree (F) from their peak last summer and early fall. February 2011’s anomaly (UAH) came in as -0.018F relative to the 30 year average. Recall global temperatures lag ENSO by about 7 months. Global teleconnections are most similar to the late 1950s, 1960s and 1970s when frequent snowy cold winters caused the world to increasingly think an ice age was coming.
Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado, said less sea ice in the Arctic translates to more moisture in the atmosphere, and could also cause an atmospheric circulation pattern in polar regions known as Arctic Oscillation.
“It’s still cutting-edge research and there’s no smoking gun, but there’s evidence that with less sea ice, you put a lot of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, and the circulation of the atmosphere responds to that,” Serreze said.
He would not know cutting edge research if he fell over it. Forecasters were using the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in forecasting temperatures for over a decade. It correlates very strongly with the Northern Hemispheric temperatures and with wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. Even the IPCC talks about the natural cyclical behavior of the AMO (60-70 year cycle). The warm AMO mode which began in 1995 biases the atmosphere towards a negative AO and NAO. It also contributes to less arctic ice as the warmer than normal waters near the Barents Sea work their way under the ice and thin it from the bottom. See.
Before Serreze took over NSIDC seeing the huge grant funding windfall opportunity, an honest scientist in their blog in 2007 admitted the roles of the oceans in arctic ice and the uncertainty that existed in the science:
“One prominent researcher, Igor Polyakov at the University of Fairbanks, Alaska, points out that pulses of unusually warm water have been entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic, which several years later are seen in the ocean north of Siberia. These pulses of water are helping to heat the upper Arctic Ocean, contributing to summer ice melt and helping to reduce winter ice growth. Another scientist, Koji Shimada of the Japan Agency for Marine – Earth Science and Technology, reports evidence of changes in ocean circulation in the Pacific side of the Arctic Ocean. Through a complex interaction with declining sea ice, warm water entering the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait in summer is being shunted from the Alaskan coast into the Arctic Ocean, where it fosters further ice loss.” Many questions still remain to be answered, but these changes in ocean circulation may be important keys for understanding the observed loss of Arctic sea ice.”
CO2 has nothing at all to do with it. Cold open arctic waters serve as a major sink of CO2 just as the warm tropical waters serve as a source. Roger Pielke Sr. suggests the ocean heat content (OHC) as a more robust measure of temperature trends. Models suggest OHC should be rising rapidly as the greenhouse gases build, especially in the tropics. Here is the buoy based OHC in the top 300 meters of the equatorial from NOAA (between 5 degrees north and south of the equator) Pacific from 130 E to 80W. During El Ninos, the eastern half is warm and the west cool, in La Ninas the eastern half is cool and the western warm. The fact there is not net warming, instead actually a slight cooling of the entire belt may the most damning proof that global warming is nothing more than a government funded political campaign.
Meanwhile, check out the interesting snow stories as we enter the last quarter mile of the winter season. Ask the people in these areas whether they think global warming is something to worry about.
And Central Park’s snowiest months:
Chicago had a helleva February.
Minneapolis is climbing the top ten list of snowiest winters.
As is Boston.
The sad truth is that the average person has a terrible memory for weather, or the changing narrative of fearmongers with it. Most people I talk to can’t even remember the droughts of ’88. That was the seminal year where global warming became a front page topic. ’88 was supposed to be the norm, not the outlier.
Now, 22 years later and we have “too much” moisture in the air. It’s such a laugh. I hope at some level, people read this and kind of just roll their eyes. In the same way they do when they read nutritional reports about eggs (Good, bad, good, No they are bad again).
“Nigel McDougall says:
March 3, 2011 at 11:08 pm”
A politico friend of mine has predicted Gillard won’t be PM by the end of the year, and that we could be in for a double-dissolution election. She has outraged Australian voters by annoucing a “price on carbon”, siding with The Greens to stay in power. Gillard repeatedly denied she said she would not introduce a carbon tax before the federal election. Gillard repeats that “Climate change is real, it is happening and we (Humans) are the cause”. Gillard will support The Greens to allow same sex marriages, Bob Brown will support Gillard for a carbon tax, which will evolve into an ETS. Bob Brown is running and ruining the country at the moment, Gillard is just a puppet. Gillard has stated “Prices will increase. That’s the whole point ins’t it.”, that’s a serious punch in the mouth for the average Aussie already struggling with ever increasing costs of living.
Adding insult to injury the Australian MSM have been out-doing themselves this week with many articles and commentary about cllimate change and carbon taxes etc. There does appear to be a slight shift in opinion, towards the sceptical, in the comments to many of the articles. If Gillard wants this tax, then please Gillard, take it to an election or show us proof CO2 is driving climate change in a catastrophic and disruptive way.
And this weekend we have “The Day After Tomorrow” movie sceening.
Its now 4 days into Autumn, its quite cool. This winter looks as if it coule be a long cold one.
“Men sometimes make a point of honour not to be disabused; and they had rather fall into an hundred errors than confess one.
But after all, when neither our principles nor our dispositions, nor, perhaps our talents, enable us to encounter delusion with delusion, we must use our best reason to those that ought to be reasonable creatures, and to take our chance for the event. We cannot act on these anomalies in the minds of men. I do not conceive that the persons who have contrived these things can be made much the better or the worse for anything that can be said of them. They are reason proof.”
Edmund Burke
Nigel McDougall
March 3, 2011 at 11:08 pm
Brother-in-law now in Strahan reports that it’s “bloody freezing”, I notice that on the BOM website that the apparent temp is now 1.6 Deg C, and its only early Autumn.
I
Nigel McDougall says: (March 3 at 11.08pm)
“Australia is being run by Carbonazzis, and I’m getting madder by the minute. A lot of my friends think I’ve turned into a nutter. Thank God for WUWT, you keep me sane.”
I live in southern New South Wales and could not agree more with your comments. I wonder when our fellow citizens are going to wake up. I have been collecting articles rebutting the global warming nonsense for a while now but anyone who does happen to get published in the media putting these contrary views is ridiculed. As am I when I put this contrary view. Where will it all end?
Nigel McDougall says:
March 3, 2011 at 11:08 pm
Just a minor correction , if I may Nigel.
I’m pretty sure that the Brisbane desal plant is actually working pretty hard…. to provide drinking water. All the other water is full of ‘stuff’ and is apparently proving hard to treat, Sea water only has salt in it 😉
Not arguing about the rest of your post, that’s for sure.
Gillard is a deceitful lying b..ch, Brown is a sly evil prosperity hating maniac, Oakenshott is just an drivvelling idiot, Windsor is an opportunist a.. hole totally lacking in integrity..
Nigel McDougall says: (March 3, 2011 at 11:08 pm)
Australian politics is insane. The Federal Govt has appointed Tim Flannery to brainwash the public…
A minor quibble with that second line, Nigel. I really don’t think the federal government expects Flannery to be able to brainwash us; they simply use him as a “name” to justify conclusions they have already reached. It kinda takes some of the heat off them as they can point to him when it all goes upside down. Rebuild your faith in we, your fellow Australians, who — even though we may slip from time to time — are a stable lot with basic common sense.
p.s. Do you really have to keep on pushing all that cold up here to Melbourne?
Someone using my name posted something over there at Forbes. Sounds pretty good to me so I’ll quote it.
“Unfortunately for “science”, it is not clear from the peer-reviewed literature that Dr. Jeff Masters is an active researcher with respect to the topics he is publicly advocating. Indeed, I know of no peer-reviewed literature by Dr. Masters that would indicate expertise in how climate change or AGW may affect snowstorms. Indeed, basic large-scale climate dynamics tells us that extratropical or baroclinic waves should indeed become less energetic as the pole-to-equator temperature difference is reduced — several decades down the road, maybe in 2050 or 2100. However, there is little evidence aside from these hand-wavy, thought-experiment level hypothesis that winter storms have changed — in any way.
Since these scientists did not publish in the peer-reviewed literature nor really mention any papers that buttress their viewpoints, it is a wonder what was presented was worthy of a press conference? This type of conjecture without solid evidence, data, and a falsifiable hypothesis is at odds with the scientific method. Some would describe it as pseudoscience or junk science. Statements like “snowstorms are not inconsistent with global warming” are laughable because they are akin to straw man arguments. However, the irony is that AGW proponents declared the exact opposite prediction just a few years ago.
So, if these scientists want to do real science, please publish in the literature on this topic or bring your traveling road show / circus to a meteorological meeting or conference where “active researchers” can assess the veracity of your claims.
Until one provides some hard data with requisite statistical AND physical significance, in my opinion, Conference calls like this one by the UCS should be given very short shrift and exposed for their blatant political opportunism. It simply comes across as amateur hour there in DC when these eco-liberals start talking above their expertise and level of knowledge. You guys really half-assed it with this one…”
Amino acids – thank you. The video made me laugh out loud, twice. The media and ‘scientists’ quoted in the film can’t have it both ways – they were either speaking utter tripe then or they are speaking utter tripe now.
The techniques and dishonesty are also evident in both cases – the spectre of just one degree here or there pushing the earth into crisis. And, of course, Man’s evil hand to be seen everywhere (they just changed the storyline).
This is the videolink to send to any friends and colleagues who remain concerned about AGW (hardly any now in my circle). Personally, I am telling anyone I know when this subject comes up to prepare for at least 30 years of lower temperatures.
These guys seem to be hanging on by their finger nails on a very high cliff.
They must truly have convinced themselves that this heap of horsedung is valid, either that or they should be locked up in the looney bin. In years to come these antics will revive the “Believe or Not” scripts. Snake oil for the masses.
These alarmists come out with so many claims that either do not stand up to the science or do not agree with the real observable world.
If they all went to a new universe that obeyed their queer rules the better this universe would be.
animal rights activist/vegan individuals use a similiar tactic, credibility has to be challenged, look for scientific credentials and identify members.
If Flannery comes to Toowoomba , I’m going to see him.
I aim to misbehave.
Reminds me of that classic film “inherit the wind” with the Frederick March character becoming more and more apopleptic with rage and more an more ridiculous as the unsound foundations of his ideas and beliefs are mocked by Spencer Tracey until finally his heart gives out.
So it is with Team-AGW. Finally the people have the strength and confidence to openly mock them, and they become ever more shrill and ridiculous in the defence of their own beliefs.
Nigel McDougall says:
March 3, 2011 at 11:08 pm
Agreed wholeheartedly. First time in my life I’m serious about protesting in some, way shape or form against the “carbon tax”. They can’t even get that right…. it’s actually a “Carbon Dioxide Tax” that their after.
When are the Aussie populace in general going to wake up
Union of concerned Scientists spouting the Al Gore “we predicted havy snow is a result of global warming BS. Now they are predicting heavy spring flooding due to global warming in the US due to the heavy snows this winter. Duh.
Looked up this group and found this intesting article posted this week (and attached link to the report). THey are saying that the nuclear energy is too heavily susidized (I say regulated) to allow solar and wind to compete fairly… Come on anthony that is good for a laugh.
http://www.stltoday.com/business/columns/jeffrey-tomich/7d858196-3f7d-11e0-a61b-0017a4a78c22.html
http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/nuclear_power/nuclear_subsidies_report.pdf
“Additional [nuclear power] subsidies would also provide nuclear
power with an unfair competitive advantage over emerging
renewable energy solutions such as solar and wind,
which can reduce global warming emissions faster and
more cost-effectively than nuclear power, and with less
risk. The nuclear industry already stands to benefit from
any future price placed on global warming emissions;
this report clearly shows why any additional subsidies to
this industry are both unnecessary and unwise.”
HOBO
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
March 3, 2011 at 9:26 pm
Video about The Coming Ice Age…
Interesting,
Este vídeo apresenta conteúdo de UMG.
A sua reprodução foi restringida em determinados sites.
Assista no YouTube
This video contains content from UMG.
Their reproduction was restricted to certain sites.
Watch on YouTube
UMG…..It’s a new story ….. hot music ??????
I travel quite extensively, and meet with people of all stripes. “Global Warming” comes up in conversation from time to time. I must say that of all the slants used by the Warmists to scare the public into believing in AGW, this is the least successful one. I have yet to see anyone NOT role their eyes in derision when you explain that these scientists are saying that warm means cold, and warm means snow, etc, etc. It doesn’t pass the smell test of Joe Public. You only need to be on this world long enough to gain valuable insight into what happens when it is cold and when it is warm. No college degree required.
It would now appear that there is no small amount of panic beginning to appear on the AGW scene. To say that GW results in more snow due to warm air holding more moisture, in a period of La Nina seems perverse.
This is where the dollar budget becomes the riding factor in all AGW proponents mind set. Time is on the side of the accurate, models begin to show their frailty, sense will untimately prevail. Write to your Political representatives, it takes 5 minutes and costs a stamp, rattle their cages, they do not like it and will make it go away. Blogging is great but they can turn it off, letters piled on a desk are a nightmare.
These so called scientists are just using algore’s spongy air.
E.M.Smith says:
March 3, 2011 at 11:18 pm
“So, got any suggestions? I’m a bit addicted to Wunderground and would not mind an alternative.”
Yes – I use http://www.intellicast.com. Awesome radar (100x better than weather underground), and the overall presentation of the forecasts is better. Their severe weather alerts could be improved, but you get the same information.
Also, weather underground recently “revamped” their site appearance, and now it’s pretty bad – confusing layout and it’s harder to see the forecast for several days in a row. You can still see the “classic” view which is much better, but this change makes it easier to say goodbye to weather underground…
So, does warm snow lead to rotten ice? ;->
When will the global warming-colding scientists get a clue that they have lost the battle, and the war.
HOBO
Frank K. says:
March 4, 2011 at 5:11 am
Thanks for the Intelliweather link. Really spiffy site!
/Mr Lynn
Fernando (in Brazil)
There;s a Gwen Stefani song in the video. So it won’t play in some countries. I don’t know the copyright laws that determine it. I’ll try to contact the maker of the video. Maybe there’s something I can do, like remake it with a different song.