Guest Posting by Ira Glickstein
Total US Debt (public and private) as a percentage of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) correlates with NASA GISS US Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly better than CO2 levels! So, if we want to reduce warming, cut the debt!
The base chart tracks Total Public and Private US Debt as a percentage of GDP (black line) from 1870 through 2009. Notice how it slowly increases from 1880 to 1930 and then peaks sharply in the early 1930’s, declines through the 1950’s and then rises steadily through 2009.
NASA GISS data for the US Annual 5 year Mean Temperature Anomaly from 1880 to the present is superimposed (red line), and fits remarkably well. It is a bit noisier, but it too increases from 1880 to 1930 and then peaks sharply in the early 1930’s. It then declines through 1970, and then rises steadily through 2010.
Notice how CO2 levels (dotted blue line), estimated from 1880 through 1957 and based on Mauna Loa from 1958 through 2010, fail to indicate any peaking in the 1930’s.
It is amazing how the Warmists point to human-caused CO2 as the primary cause of Global Warming when Total US Debt as a Percentage of GDP matches so much better! Perhaps cutting the GISS budget will do more for the Warmist cause than wrecking our economy by cutting energy use and sequestering CO2? Let us save the environment by increasing US productivity and reducing deficits!
BOTTOM LINE:
1) I really do not think that US Debt is related to warming temperature at all, but it seems to be more related than CO2. (A geometric analogy: An ellipse has no corners at all, but it has more corners than a circle :^)
2) Correlation does not prove causation, and CO2 does not even correlate all that well as the cause of warming. Therefore, human activities, while most likely responsible for some small part of recent warming (see this) are overwhelmed by natural cycles and processes, responsible for most of the actual warming since 1880. Indeed, the greatest human cause of the supposed warming has been Data Bias, due to “adjustments” and re-analysis by NASA GISS.
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An ellipse has two corners 🙂
Another fine example of a spurious correlation, which has been extensively analysed in the econometrics literature following on from Yule’s work in the 1920s. Yule found a nice correlation between the proportion of marriages performed in the Church of England and mortality rates in the UK. See Yule’s paper at
http://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/yule.1926.jrss.pdf
For a recent discussion see for example Johansen at
http://www.econ.ku.dk/english/research/publications/wp/2007/0725.pdf/
Here in the UK, we are a little worried about our debt – though we have just started to make huge cut-backs so we at least tackle our budget deficit. But I was astounded to see the US debt and the deficit! I thought the figures were wrong, so went onto another website. Absolutely amazing, how do you all sleep at night?
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
On your global warming is a pussycat thread you claim that there is only 0.5 C of global warming, and 0.3 C is from data adjustment in GISS.
Yet the warming in UAH and RSS is ~0.5 C since ’79.
Since I doubt even most WUWT commenters think that Roy Spencer is adjusting the satellite data because of airports in space, does that mean that there was hardly any warming or cooling before 1980?
Also, I like your trick of using US temperature records and ignoring how theory talks about total forcing rather than just one. Solar activity hardly correlates at all with warming over the past 40 years (when we have satellite data), yet I doubt you’d say that because of this it should be ignored, right?
Why did CO2 spike in the great depression?
1930s was a warm period, warm means CO2 goes up. CO2 is a sign of increased life on the planet, it is not a threat.
And here all this time I was convinced that the warming was “caused” by the number of shoes in my wife’s closet. As the number of shoes has gone up, so has the temp. It’s gotta be the shoes!!!
The U.S. reneged on its national debt in in 1933 (http://spectator.org/archives/2009/01/21/was-there-ever-a-default-on-us/) which clearly caused an abrupt decline in global temperatures. Clearly it is time for the U.S. to renege on its national debt again. This will be at least as effective at reducing global warming as a carbon tax. (not sarc).
OT.
Time for a small celebration. Daily SSN hit 100 for the first time for some years
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.gif
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt
Since CO2 is massively beneficial, does that mean the National Debt should be maximized?
Don’t forget to mention the global warming vs pirates correlation, so accurately explored by the Church of the Flying Spaghetti monster – http://www.venganza.org/about/open-letter/
So a circle only has one corner?;)
The complete and total economic collapse of the USA and the world is a mathematical certainty. Buy Silver, Guns, and Gold. There’s not much time left. I know this sounds alarmist, but history shows this is what happens to a fiat currency once the debt goes parabolic 100% of the time.
What this really means is that the Mauna Loa records do not accurately reflect our varying CO2 emissions.
In reality our emissions go up and down in line with our economies and debt rises and falls along with the economic cycle.
The truth is therefore that our CO2 emissions and our economies do track temperatures far more closely than the Mauna Loa record reveals.
(Sarcasm – I think !)
I like the conclusion — if we want to reduce warming, cut the (US) debt! hahaha. cheers!
WAGTD!!! It’s WTWT!!! Where’s the money? sarc off!
Fifty years ago when I was doing statistics our lecturer claimed that most things could be correlated with the growth in the sales of white sliced bread.
How much better?
What is the correlation coefficient (r2) between T and CO2 and between T and US Debt?
no more rubbish about democrats and debt, please
Will the U.S. economy hit it’s tipping point?
Will the Arctic sea ice reach it’s tipping point?
I’d wager the former will be a certainty.
Charlie says:
February 16, 2011 at 1:04 am
Don’t I recall that US postal charges and leprechauns also have a hand in this?
@The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley,
Sorry, but we in the UK are NOT having our Government’s deficit reduced by ‘huge cut-backs’. The timid trimming of expenditure has served only to reduce the rate of increase of our debt, and that by an insubstantial amount. Daniel Hannan explains here:-
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100075917/there-havent-been-any-net-public-spending-cuts-but-try-to-say-so-and-youll-be-howled-down-as-a-liar/
Increased income means increased borrowing power. At a population level, everyone borrows almost to their limit. Increased (fossil fuel) energy consumption increases productivity and hence income, and hence borrowing. The connection is fairly direct.
mikep says: “Yule found a nice correlation between the proportion of marriages performed in the Church of England and mortality rates in the UK.”
Yule must have been the straight man for Henny Youngman.
I still prefer to blame Apple and the drones that “must” buy the latest and greatest magical iCandy that is offered to them for the recent warming. If crack dealers or government politicians ever learn to market like Apple then we will be doomed.
Government spending is a fun correlation though.
I like that…man made global warming is real after all because it was Men (mostly) who took the data and altered it upwards….very good.