Flood ravaged Queensland is preparing for a monstrous South Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclone Yasi. Forecast to reach Category 4+ strength on the familiar Saffir-Simpson scale, there really is nothing inhibiting this storm from explosively intensifying and reaching 135 knots+ in terms of sustained winds. Ocean heat content below Yasi is high and sufficient to maintain a very intense TC. As the USA deals with the upcoming blizzard with a couple feet of snow forecast for the Midwest, the ongoing Southern Hemisphere summer produces tropical cyclones. In terms of history, Yasi will likely be compared to Cyclone Larry (2006) which made landfall somewhat north of the forecast track of Yasi. However, the circulation of Yasi is considerably larger and, if it maintains it intensity until landfall, could be one of the strongest and largest TCs to make landfall in Australia in the past century.
Forecasting and Predictability note: The ECMWF forecast model has been consistently forecasting a major tropical cyclone near or over Queensland on Feb 3 for the last 7-days: Link to last 14-Forecast Cycles. This demonstration of 10-day TC track skill is quite impressive.
Links to other satellite floaters: Water Vapor, Visible, hourly IR animation of above.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
It’s a lovely place FNQ, can get a bit swampy used to hunt merminks there for a while.
Best wishes with them, common sense lot, not a lot of yips in them. I fear greatly for the Seaview Hotel Townie and the docks and hotel district Cairns.
It is the water I am most worried about, We are now officially as big a swamp as the Amazon. No doubt about it we don’t muck around in bragging rights.
Effin Drought and effin Flooding rains. Our national poet has a bit answer for bloody Oracle Mc Kellar.
Handy links from our blog Cyclone Monsoon experts, would be handy.
Thanks.
“Lastly, your “record blizzards and storms” is just plain silly, since your “record” is only ~150 years (at best case) and hence a laughably microscopic and unrepresentative sample of global climate history.”
I agree, on natural scales it is clearly laughable, which is why it can only be explained by human induced global warming.
As for the cold temp records, the same applies, the global warming is destabilising and shifting the normal weather patterns so you will get records broken on both sides. The key point is that weather is getting more extreme and unpredictable, across the board.
Ken, the key point is have you ever had such a period of extreme weather before in such a short space of time? Including floods and cyclones, they have all happened before but not so many, at this intensity, over such a short period. Esily explained by la nina and warm oceans, but the intensity is rising, why?
So Michael, I guess you have figured out these folks are not skeptics. The problem is what do you call them without hurting their feelings?
Michael, sorry but humans, including you, have short memories. This is the largest cyclone to threaten us since we’ve been able to look at them with radar and satellites- about 40 years. There are many reports of severe cyclones before then. The current weather patterns are similar to the 1970s, and my father in law says, before that, 1950. And in 1893 the Brisbane River had several floods higher than the recent one. We have had comparable episodes of extreme weather before in living memory, and before that in our recorded history, and before that in the warnings and stories told to early white settlers by Aborigines. So Michael be alert but not alarmed. Stop trying to frighten children. It’s called weather, or Mother Nature, or whatever you like except man made anything.
Pooh Dixie: Sorry to be overly picky, but actually you are too. Also wrong. ‘Knots per hour’ is accepted (though nowadays infrequent) usage, and has been for centuries. The great Nelson used it.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/1999/december/extremes1299.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/1999/november/extremes1199.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/1999/october/extremes1099.html
Re Michael says:
January 31, 2011 at 4:10 pm
and yes, Mike to
You guys are chicken littles; a 20 second google search, one third of one random year,
check it out, do you want the other eight months?
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/1999/september/extremes0999.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/1999/december/extremes1299.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/1999/october/extremes1099.html
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/1999/august/extremes0899.html
please don’t over-dramatise our wet season. north queensland is used to cyclones :
1 Feb: Rockhampton Morning Bulletin: Yasi tracks north, Cap Coast safer
DESPITE damaging winds from tomorrow morning, Cyclone Yasi isn’t expected to affect the region’s coastal communities as much as first predicted.
This is the latest advice from the Bureau of Meteorology about the impact of the cyclone on the Capricorn Coast…
Acting Mayor, Councillor Rose Swadling said the Bureau of Meteorology has advised they do not expect that the Capricorn Coast will experience any significant storm tide surge given our distance from the expected cyclone track…
http://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/story/2011/02/01/cap-coast-safer-yasi-tracks-north/
31 Jan: Sydney Morning Herald: How the floods coverage killed tourism
Rockhampton airport – the only major airfield closed by the recent flooding – reopened this morning as Queensland does its best restore business as usual. However, you’d be forgiven for assuming that, for the past month, the whole of Queensland has been underwater from Camooweal to Coolangatta, Cooktown to Charleville.
As politicians and the media have dramatised the extent of the floods, this has led to what the Queensland Tourism Industry Council terms “a wave of perception-driven cancellations”…
None of the main tourism centres of far North Queensland (chiefly Cairns and Port Douglas), the Whitsundays, Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast were affected by the floods and remain fully open for business.
Yet Daintree Ecolodge owner Cathy Maloney says: “International travel agents who were due to visit Tropical North Queensland have cancelled their familiarisation trips due to the dramatic coverage of floods – floods that are more than 1000 kilometres away.”…
http://www.smh.com.au/travel/blogs/travellers-check/how-the-floods-coverage-killed-tourism/20110124-1a25x.html
yet the fear-mongering is at full throttle:
1 Feb: Courier Mail Brisbane: Queensland facing a deadly event with Cyclone Yasi: (Premier) Anna Bligh
Ms Bligh said people must take the opportunity today to stock up on food and other supplies, with a real risk many could be without power for three to five days.
“I think many people will be very frightened by what they’re hearing,” she said…
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-facing-a-deadly-event-with-cyclone-yasi-anna-bligh/story-e6freon6-1225997904763
frankly i’m tired of emails from friends around australia and the world wondering if i’m under water.
Mike says:
January 31, 2011 at 4:25 pm
So Michael, I guess you have figured out these folks are not skeptics. The problem is what do you call them without hurting their feelings?
Well you can call me tired, tired of chicken littles getting into a flap about every extreme weather event or natural disaster.
I blame the media and thank goodness that the magic molecule isn’t just an oil rich third world nation or It would have had It’s regime changed 100 times by now.
Pat, so is Florida so I hope you won’t mind if I throw a little money towards your local Salvation Army and wish those of you who still have homes the best of luck.
Michael says:
January 31, 2011 at 4:10 pm
Ken, the key point is have you ever had such a period of extreme weather before in such a short space of time? Including floods and cyclones, they have all happened before but not so many, at this intensity, over such a short period. Esily explained by la nina and warm oceans, but the intensity is rising, why?
Simple answer Michael, the solar position is unlike anything we have experienced for 210 years. Even NASA are aware of atmospheric changes during low solar activity that affect the polar vortexes that shape the current AO,NAO and AAO positions. The atmospheric oscillations also contribute to the strength of ENSO. Nothing new here, just that we dont live long enough to experience the pattern twice in a lifetime.
And, it has begun; as of about 6 PM CST T-shower activity had developed near San Angelo TX and is now widespread west and north of the DFW (Dallas-Ft. Worth) area.
Just a few minutes Thunder-snow was being reported in Moore OK (per a post on Stormtrack.org) …
.
Oh the hubris of youth in the making of proclamations; and on what? 150 some years of recorded history? … guffaw …
Get out from behind your keyboard and off of YouTube for a bit and take/monitor a few geology courses OR check out a couple college-level texts and do some reading …
Report back; give a summary of what you then think.
.
Noelene says:
January 31, 2011 at 8:39 am
“However, the circulation of Yasi is considerably larger and, if it maintains it intensity until landfall, could be one of the strongest and largest TCs to make landfall in Australia in the past century”
It would have to be big to outdo cyclone Tracy(1974)Northern Territory
======================================
Tracy was an extremely intense, but very small circulation….and Darwin just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.
This is a different beast, with a very very large circulation with hurricane force winds extending over 200 nautical miles across.
So….so to speak….an elephant in the room as opposed to a little poisonous snake.
One kills you by biting your ankle and one kills you by stomping you.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
World Ends Tommorrow at noon?The predictions of doom need a new spin and the hysterical nitwits all seem to have read the same talking points. Brainless repetition of dumb statements will not help convince a sceptic. Coulda woulda shoulda, are the key words, be very frightened cause it might rain, blow, snow or be sunny tomorrow.Its old, enough already, if you have any emperical evidence of unusual weather events be sure to post them or is it unprecedented cause its new to you?This year the retribution for this chicken little scam starts in my neighbourhood, by years end our dogooders will be fleeing derision, ie “Your so stupid you believed in CAWG.” Closely followed by the human hampster wheel act. Funny how wetting oneself in fear of the weather has a long and well recorded history and always the social cycles are the same, panic, religion , failure and then slapdown. Will history be reintroduced in our schools as a compulsory remedial lessons? Or shall the slapdown of the tremulous be an adequate lesson? Watching the collaspe of the agenda is well worth the wait and yes there is a price to pay for attempting to defraud taxpayers.
It looks like a hot and wet week for all of eastern Australia;
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/synoptic/
1 Knot = 1 nautical mile (6000 feet) per hour. Lord Nelson was not a landlubber, and never would have said “knots per hour”. That term would be proper for acceleration, not velocity.
Looks to me like the OHC contents drops off quite a bit.
Michael, if weather events are becoming more intense and more frequent as you claim (rather than more intensely and frequently reported), how does that necessarily indicate that “something abnormal” was going on?
What are the “normal patterns”?
Also, at what stage does “a little bit of human induced climate change” (6:02 am) become “human induced global warming”(4:10 pm)?
Yes, its now official.
TC Yasi caused by climate change: Greens
Updated 1 hour 11 minutes ago
Map: Brisbane 4000 The Australian Greens say Tropical Cyclone Yasi is a “tragedy of climate change”.
The party was heavily criticised after it linked the Queensland floods to climate change and blamed coal miners.
Greens deputy leader Christine Milne says the cyclone is another example of why it is important to cut carbon pollution.
“This is a tragedy, but it is a tragedy of climate change,” she said.
“The scientists have been saying that we are going to experience more extreme weather events, that their intensity is going to increase, their frequency.”
I wonder what price on carbon would be required to convince Yasi that all this huff and puff is not worth it.
AGW – a powerful delusion.
To see what has been happening over the few days, goto:
http://internationalweatherarchive.org/satViewer.aspx
select MTSAT-1R, and plug in the dates you want to see a timelapse of.
Facinating running the slider back and forth seeing how the stuffing got knocked out of the WA one (Bianca) while the monster grows off Fiji and heads for QLD.
It would seem that landfall is now inevitable !
regarDS
Jimbo says
———
January 31, 2011 at 1:52 am
Get ready for “caused by global warming.”
————————
Also get ready for “caused by global cooling”.
AND
Water vapour has nothing to do with of rain.
AND
rain can’t fall if it’s warm.
Cairns hospital is being completely evacuated:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/01/3127118.htm?section=justin
According to the article, they are expecting a big hit and urging people to get out in the next 12 hours or so, after which they will be on their own because of the dangerous conditions.
Oh, and I won’t bother linking this, but the idiot Greens are already saying that this cyclone is a direct result of global warming. I think these people had better stay well away from north Queensland for a while – the locals will be unimpressed by this opportunistic crap on top of all their other troubles.
“Michael, if weather events are becoming more intense and more frequent as you claim (rather than more intensely and frequently reported), how does that necessarily indicate that “something abnormal” was going on?
What are the “normal patterns”?
Also, at what stage does “a little bit of human induced climate change” (6:02 am) become “human induced global warming”(4:10 pm)?”
Your arguing semantics, while what has been said would happen is happening. When the temperatures are ‘hottest on record’, and the storms are ‘biggest on record’ and the floods are more numerous and stronger than ever in such a small time frame, then I would say abnormal. You cannot use the MWP or the Little Ice Age, they are periods in history, not causes. Apart from the fact that you do not have accurate records there are workable theories for those periods, such as the WMP had a higher than average solar period. Even counting that it is hotter now than during the WMP. The LIA is thought to have had lower solar radiation and high volcanic activity.
Regardless these things are now measurable and are not occurring. Stop looking for excuses and ways to deny what is happening and critically examine the evidence as true skeptics should.