It was only a matter of time. NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth plays the never ending blame game.
Scientists see climate change link to Australian floods
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Climate change has likely intensified the monsoon rains that have triggered record floods in Australia’s Queensland state, scientists said on Wednesday, with several months of heavy rain and storms still to come.
But while scientists say a warmer world is predicted to lead to more intense droughts and floods, it wasn’t yet possible to say if climate change would trigger stronger La Nina and El Nino weather patterns that can cause weather chaos across the globe.
“I think people will end up concluding that at least some of the intensity of the monsoon in Queensland can be attributed to climate change,” said Matthew England of the Climate Change Research Center at the University of New South Wales in Sydney.
“The waters off Australia are the warmest ever measured and those waters provide moisture to the atmosphere for the Queensland and northern Australia monsoon,” he told Reuters.
…
The rains have been blamed on one of the strongest La Nina patterns ever recorded. La Nina is a cooling of ocean temperatures in the east and central Pacific, which usually leads to more rain over much of Australia, Indonesia and other parts of Southeast Asia.
This is because the phenomena leads to stronger easterly winds in the tropics that pile up warm water in the western Pacific and around Australia. Indonesia said on Wednesday it expected prolonged rains until June.
…
Prominent U.S. climate scientist Kevin Trenberth said the floods and the intense La Nina were a combination of factors.
He pointed to high ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean near Indonesia early last year as well as the rapid onset of La Nina after the last El Nino ended in May.
“The rapid onset of La Nina meant the Asian monsoon was enhanced and the over 1 degree Celsius anomalies in sea surface temperatures led to the flooding in India and China in July and Pakistan in August,” he told Reuters in an email.
He said a portion, about 0.5C, of the ocean temperatures around northern Australia, which are more than 1.5C above pre-1970 levels, could be attributed to global warming.
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Read the entire news article here
Below is the Nino3.4 index from the WUWT Enso/Sea level page here
Note that in late 2007 and early 2008, a La Niña even deeper than the one we are in now occurred. Now we are quickly coming off a strong El Niño, so no doubt there would be some heat left in SST’s and some additional water vapor in the region. The current SST image shows it rather warm around Australia. Of course, it is summer there. You can also see the current strong La Niña in blue
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I’ve suddenly switched allegiance. Global Warming has to be true – I mean how could so many people utter so much [/snip] for so long without effecting the atmosphere. 😉
[Vulgarity is unnecessary… bl57~mod]
Re:
Domingo Tavella
January 13, 2011 at 2:17 am
You don’t have to be a meteorologist to talk about the weather. And you don’t have to be lawyer to be a member of jury.
Lack of expertise hasn’t stopped Al Gore from becoming a prophet of the allegedly upcoming climate catastrophe. And the ‘Climate Justice’ movement doesn’t consist of only the alarmist scientists with peer-reviewed papers in the literature.
Much unlike polymer science and molecular biology, Climate Science is an extremely politicised field. Everyone has a stake in climate science’s policy recommendations, and thus everyone has the right to consider whether Climatology is reliable science or something more like Horoscope Science. You don’t have to be an expert astrologer to figure out astrology is bogus science, do you?
Hwew’s the problem – all these ‘its all down to climate change’ loonies seem to think the planet is only thirty years old. ‘The wettest/driest/hottest/coldest/whatever – on record…’
Well – as has been thoughoughly documented above, the ‘records’ for Queensland go back to the early 1800s – which is STILL only a heartbeat in the climate history of the planet.
They really should shut up – but they won’t as long as the politicians listen, nod sagely, and think: ‘Hmmm – another opportunity to whack some more green taxes on fuel…’
Why don’t the Aussies build some nice hydro plants to harness the force of all that water..?
Well – the floods seem equally reliable as the wind in the UK to power all our wind turbines…
…and here is some more absolute garbage from the dangerous groupthink hysterics. But then again, nothing like The Age to push more of its blatantly inaccurate climate trash on us….
Ian Lowe, once a respected environmental scientist, now a bit of a laughing stock in the field, especially since joining the ACF – I mean what else can you say – I’m sure deep down he is torn between what is in HIS and his foundations best interests and what is correct. He’s penned this tripe…
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/drowning-in-a-hothouse-20110113-19pr1.html
And then of course, the obligatory article from a former student union activist, now head of Australia’s youth climate group, who has penned this bizzare “its hot, its cold, wet, dry, normal, extreme, everything” piece.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/its-time-to-talk-of-climate-change-20110113-19pr3.html
Nothing like using a natural disaster to push your own deluded pseudo-science and political campaigns.
I especially love this comment from Sandell “The La Nina phenomenon, the major cause of the increased rain in south-east Queensland, gets stronger as sea surface temperatures increase.” If ever there is a quote that shows she has about as much climate knowledge as a ninth grader – this is it. I think she should go back to university!!
I’m sick and tired of the sensationalist garbage and shocking unprofessionalism and blatant bias of the mainstream media. The ABC are an utter disgrace and have been for many a year – Robyn Williams being a primary culprit. Time and time again (and I have written evidence of this in emails) of interviews being cut, edited and even not broadcast because the interviewee said things that was detrimental to the AGW Crusade.
Enough is enough.
I’ve noticed some comments on the fact that in recent decades Brisbane has not been affected by floods as before.
Seems to me that they are not accounting for the dams contribution, since in many years with high rainfall, they managed the excess inflow, without any outflow. That’s one of the reasons they were built for!
Ecotretas
AGW cannot get either the theory or predictions straight.
All that is accomplished is to reinforce the perception of cashing in on disaster.
Right here in Northern Calif., the officials still fret and trouble the communities over drought (which, by the way, was a defecit created mostly by overprescription).
If the Agenda appears to be shaky and highly confused, it’s because that is it’s current state.
Don’t these people realise that as soon as they say it is the nth worse occurrence of any weather event, that it has occurred n times before and by definition cannot be getting worse now.
Nothing to do with climate science, doesn’t need a higher degree to understand, is unequivocally based on fact and requires only simple logic to get to grips with.
On a positive note, the BBC is explaining the Australian floods in terms of La Nina, not a mention of CO2 or man as the cause.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/01/110110055748.htm
Earth Is Twice as Dusty as in 19th Century, Research Shows
ScienceDaily (Jan. 12, 2011) — If the house seems dustier than it used to be, it may not be a reflection on your housekeeping skills. The amount of dust in the Earth’s atmosphere has doubled over the last century, according to a new study; and the dramatic increase is influencing climate and ecology around the world.
… read more
It is clear that for the Trenberths of the world, nothing can falsify the theory of AGW. We must wait for their ultimate demise from this world before the theory, literally, dies out.
In the meantime, there’s no reason to let them get our blood pressure, or taxes, to go up.
We have witnessed floods worldwide.
From Nashville to Pakistan and now Austrailia to Brazil.
All of these “weather” events during low solar activity and high cosmic radiation seem to butress Svensmark’s theory.
We have the world centric view that forgets that our own atmospere is a paper thin gas barrier in the Sun’s all encompassing atmosphere.
“scientists say…it wasn’t yet possible to say if climate change would trigger stronger La Nina and El Nino weather patterns that can cause weather chaos across the globe.”
… so they say it anyway
Domingo Tavella says:
January 13, 2011 at 2:17 am
With all due respect to those writing here, practically the totality of those expressing their opinions are not really qualified to comment on energy and mass transport phenomena any more than they are qualified to opine on polymer engineering or molecular biology. How about getting a PhD in climatology or other relevant field first and only then writing on this complex subject (in a peer-reviewed journal, please) with some level of authority?
————————————
Trenberth has a Sc D that he receive back in 1972. He is a ‘self-taught’ climatologist, the field of study did not exist for many years after his formal education.
Climatology encompasses a great many fields – I can’t think of many that could not make a contribution to our understanding of climate and its impact on the world.
You are very short-sighted not to understand that many of us have advanced degrees in various sciences, and can contribute our own expertise to the analysis of climate when and where appropriate. Even those with no science background, such as historians, can help us understand whether climate/weather events are indeed “unprecendented” or not.
Read the posts and make a decision as to whether the poster has a valid point. If you think he may, or are not sure, it is not difficult to research the issue on your own for more information.
As a final recommendation, you might gain some perspective researching a disgraced historian, Michale Bellesiles, who wrote the book, “The Arming of America.” He was a prize-winning hisorian who was shown to be a fraud by a ……..software engineer.
Once again, these idiots don’t know/don’t care what they say one month compared to another. And now the oxymorons are coming every day! Look. The missing heat is either at the surface, or its deep in the bottom layer. There isn’t enough to rise the temperature of both. So which is it? It appears to me that “Trendy Guy” is saying that it is the sea surface that warms from AGW, not the deep ocean. Did he just flip flop?
My new term for this craziness: Climate Flavor of the Month
As I have said in other blogs and comments, we can’t reliably predict the temperature 5 days out, but we are to believe that climate models can tell us what the temperature will be 100 years from now? I know, I know, weather and climate are two different things, but they are inextricably connected, therefore if we can’t do the easy one, how are we to believe the other?
The alarmists, in my opinion are egotistically over the top if they think we can alter climate. If that were possible, then we should be able to stop small local events like tornadoes and hurricanes, right? We can’t even predict tornadoes, but for when one is about to develope. Why don’t these “experts” put their “expertise” to something more useful? Why, it doesn’t pay as well…….. enough said.
Very sad, but does this really surprise anyone?
Kind of off topic, but why is everything caused by global warming? Are people that stupid?
The floodwater peaked at almost a meter below the level of
deadly 1974 floods in Brisbane, saving thousands of homes.
1974! Gee I think that’s when the new Ice Age was suppose to start!
Ascribing floods or other weather events, is not about “blaming”. It is simply an uncontroversial fact that as climate changes, there will be more severe weather events, such as the extreme rain being experienced in Austrailia. These events are occurring all over the world, and it would be wise for all of us to be prepared for dramatically changing circumstances in the coming years.
In my part of the world, the mid-west region of North America, we can expect drought and our farmers are adjusting accordingly. (Drought resistant seeds are being developed. and no- till plowing practices, are just two examples,of this adjustment).
Changing climate results in increased evaporation and this affects the availability of water, meaning that we have less water for irrigation, and the rainfall patterns are changing all over the world. The rain still falls, but not necessarily where it is needed, and it often falls in deluges, saturating shallow aquifers and surfaces, resulting in massive flooding, as we now see in Australia. As a consequence, most of this water will flow back to the sea, rather than adequately recharging the aquifers thereby enabling an orderly ecological function which underpins community and economic stability.
Hugh Pepper
“With all due respect to those writing here, practically the totality of those expressing their opinions are not really qualified to comment on energy and mass transport phenomena any more than they are qualified to opine on polymer engineering or molecular biology. How about getting a PhD in climatology or other relevant field first and only then writing on this complex subject (in a peer-reviewed journal, please) with some level of authority?”
Ah yes, the old “peer review” schtick. It sounds oh so 2007. What you are saying is, Dr Trenbeth can say the moon is made out of green cheese, and we must accept his analysis because of his credentials and his “expertise” (which is questionable).
Domingo Tavella says:
January 13, 2011 at 2:17 am
Domingo let me ask you….
Do you have the equivalent of a PhD in Economics? What about National Health Care?
Defence? Schools and Education? Foreign Affairs?
You probably vote, (the most profound way to express an opinion) even though you are not an expert in all of the above fields.
By voting, you are exressing an opinion of the ‘experts’ you’re voting for.
K Trenberth is the ‘expert’, WUWT readers are expressing their opinion of this expert. And judging by the comments, we all think Trenberth is a Richard Cranium.
(With all due respect of course)
What’s that old saying…. “When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”
Domingo Tavella says:
January 13, 2011 at 2:17 am
practically the totality of those expressing their opinions are not really qualified to comment on energy and mass transport phenomena any more than they are qualified to opine on polymer engineering or molecular biology
Perhaps you’re not qualified to opine on this blog?
I love Queenslanders. Literally, every single Queenslander the BBC interviewed concerning their thoughts on the flood it was just about the same: “this is what it’s like in Queensland,” “unfortunately I live in Queensland, might as well have a beer,” “serves us right for living in a floodplain,” etc…Pretty much taking it in stride, not one “boo, hoo” self-entitlement mentality among them unlike some other places I can think of.
Too hot? Global warming! Too cold? Global warming! Too dry? Global warming! Too wet? Global warming? Dog got run over? Global warming? Daughter got pregnant? Global warming! Wife cheating on you? Global warming!