It was only a matter of time. NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth plays the never ending blame game.
Scientists see climate change link to Australian floods
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Climate change has likely intensified the monsoon rains that have triggered record floods in Australia’s Queensland state, scientists said on Wednesday, with several months of heavy rain and storms still to come.
But while scientists say a warmer world is predicted to lead to more intense droughts and floods, it wasn’t yet possible to say if climate change would trigger stronger La Nina and El Nino weather patterns that can cause weather chaos across the globe.
“I think people will end up concluding that at least some of the intensity of the monsoon in Queensland can be attributed to climate change,” said Matthew England of the Climate Change Research Center at the University of New South Wales in Sydney.
“The waters off Australia are the warmest ever measured and those waters provide moisture to the atmosphere for the Queensland and northern Australia monsoon,” he told Reuters.
…
The rains have been blamed on one of the strongest La Nina patterns ever recorded. La Nina is a cooling of ocean temperatures in the east and central Pacific, which usually leads to more rain over much of Australia, Indonesia and other parts of Southeast Asia.
This is because the phenomena leads to stronger easterly winds in the tropics that pile up warm water in the western Pacific and around Australia. Indonesia said on Wednesday it expected prolonged rains until June.
…
Prominent U.S. climate scientist Kevin Trenberth said the floods and the intense La Nina were a combination of factors.
He pointed to high ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean near Indonesia early last year as well as the rapid onset of La Nina after the last El Nino ended in May.
“The rapid onset of La Nina meant the Asian monsoon was enhanced and the over 1 degree Celsius anomalies in sea surface temperatures led to the flooding in India and China in July and Pakistan in August,” he told Reuters in an email.
He said a portion, about 0.5C, of the ocean temperatures around northern Australia, which are more than 1.5C above pre-1970 levels, could be attributed to global warming.
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Read the entire news article here
Below is the Nino3.4 index from the WUWT Enso/Sea level page here
Note that in late 2007 and early 2008, a La Niña even deeper than the one we are in now occurred. Now we are quickly coming off a strong El Niño, so no doubt there would be some heat left in SST’s and some additional water vapor in the region. The current SST image shows it rather warm around Australia. Of course, it is summer there. You can also see the current strong La Niña in blue
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Here’s a link to the ‘Queensland Flood History’:
http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/fld_history/index.shtml
Here’s an example out of a very large number:
1857
19th and 20th May: Great floods at Ipswich and Brisbane; river at Ipswich rose 45 feet, and at Brisbane 12 feet.
May: A correspondent of the Brisbane Courier furnished the following information on 29th June, 1907, regarding the flood in the Brisbane River during May, 1857:-
The flood of 1857 was the result of eight weeks’ continuous but not heavy, rain. There had been a strong fresh in the river for several weeks, and during a portion of this time time all vehicular traffic between North and South Brisbane was suspended, as the horse-punt at Russell-street was unable to cross on account of the strong current. At Ipswich the river rose 45 feet, and waterside stores were submerged to the roof; in the Brisbane reaches, however, the flood waters did not rise more than 7 feet above ordinary springs. Rowing boats were plying in Margaret, Mary, and Charlotte streets, but except near Edward and George streets there were few houses in the streets named. There were only a couple of houses in Albert-street between Charlotte and Alice streets, and the whole of the low-lying ground from Elizabeth Street to the river was a muddy lake. At South Brisbane one could stand on a hill at Cordelia-street near Boundary-street and see an unbroken sheet of water stretching from Melbourne-street to Tribune-street. Stanley-street was submerged from Walmsley-street to within 100 yards of the present dry dock. A good deal of the land at Hill-end was submerged, as was also the land on the opposite side of the river, now known as St. Lucia, and which was then a dense vine scrub. Most of the scrub lands at Oxley were also under water, as was Montague-road from Stanley-street to the present West-end Reserve.”
Extract from Brisbane Courier, 13th June, 1857:
“We have been informed that the head station of Mr. F. North and the public house belonging to Mr. J. Smith at Wivenhoe, on the Upper Brisbane, were completely inundated during the recent flood, and people were compelled to take refuge in tents. The people at Balfour station were also washed out.”
Apparently the worst floods in Brisbane’s history occurred in 1893. Brisbane has the longest complete record for floods. I stand to be corrected though. ;>)
http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml
Flood history in Australia
http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/flood.htm
http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/fld_history/index.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/flood3.htm
http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/fld_history/index.shtml
Drought history in Australia
http://home.iprimus.com.au/foo7/droughthistory.html
http://www.warwickhughes.com/drought/
Trenberth didn’t say the OZ floods were due to global warming. He said that about 1/3 of the ocean temp rise (0.5C) in the northern waters could be attributed to global warming. Which is hardly controversial – warming yields warming.
It’s also hardly controversial that the warm tropical waters waters are a factor in the increased rainfall in Northern Australia.
For the Trendberth’s & the Matthew England’s of this world, join the dots – [1974] river height 4.6 metres…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….[2011] river height 4.2 metres and inclusive of 37 (extra) years of river flat development by the authorities. What part of this don’t they understand ??
Is it now not time that these commonsense lacking so-called experts in the field of weather/climate start postulating themselves out of navel gazing junkets and into other more productive lives ??
AndiC says:
January 13, 2011 at 12:30 am someone had to be first !!!!
How unusual for Trenberth
Maybe that honour should go to Australia’s very own IPCC endorsed scientist/AGW advocate and ABC spokesman of choice on all matters global warming, Professor David Karoly. Whether its butterflys incubated by global warming on the basalt plains of Laverton Victoria (in Melbourne’s UHI shadow) or floods in Queensland, he’s the man.
They are having their cake and eating it.
Even their own reports, aka the IPCC’s predictions for northeastern and southeastern Australia say that the Palmer Drought Severity Index indicates longer and more severe droughts with not one word about the possibility of flooding and increased rainfall (as pointed out here http://hauntingthelibrary.wordpress.com/2011/01/06/ipcc-prediction-for-queensland-less-rainfall-longer-droughts-drier-climate/)
This needs to be nipped in the bud, to stop this nonsense of blaming every possible planetary weather event on CAGW.
Something has gone wrong with the BBC!
Yesterday evening they had a piece on the Australian floods. A presenter was speaking, and someone advertised as a ‘BBC Metrological Reporter’ – named something like ‘Jan Webster’ (I didn’t watch closely).
Cue scenes of flooding and devastation. Presenter turns to met reporter and asks “Is this all due to Climate Change?”
Met Reporter: “No. It’s La Nina – a regular natural phenomenon..”
I didn’t hear any more, because I fell off the sofa in astonishment and spilled my drink. I presume there will shortly be a vacancy in the BBCs Met staff..
Houses built on flood plains and other human factors:
Presumably the the La Niña and El Niño which Trenberth (I’ve stopped using “Mr” or “Kevin” – their use would seem to infer some degree of respect) mentions are those cyclical phenomena which drive weather and climate worldwide, and which the climate models cannot reproduce?
The BOM is a member of the same “model club” as the UK Met Office, which of course explains their signal failure in predicting precipitation more than a couple of days ahead. Most commercial organisations with a similar dismal record of prediction would have been driven out of business long ago. I await with bated breath the announcement that the BOM warned the Queensland government back in October.
They have achieved the perfect “State of Fear” where every item is now “proof” that global warming exists. Normal weather is “proof” of warming. Uncommon is further “proof,” and rare is OMG “proof” that CO2 emissions are wrecking the world.
Most people have to believe something. I guess some people must believe that mankind is the worst thing to ever happen to the Earth.
John Kehr
The Inconvenient Skeptic
An actual travesty. From the man himself. Bravo. Anyone remember the airline TWA? They used to serve great coffee, but Trenberth would have only ever been offered a T.
Oh, yeah, by-the-way, the entirely, utterly, completely settled science purveyors would like to ask governments around the world for more research money to investigate the climatological influences of SSTs and the Ninos and Ninas …..
Pssst. It’s not only warm oceans that produce massive rainfall, it’s also rapidly dropping temperatures.
Information about the 1974 flood tells us that the worst floods occured during the little ice age:
“While not as high as the floods in the 1800s this flood is considered to have been worse due to Brisbane’s rapidly increasing population at the time.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1974_Brisbane_flood
Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, professors paid to pervert science. Where is the indignant Australian taxpayer?
Take you pick ladies and gentlemen.
Gore blamed drought on global warming
Gore blames flood on global warming
Apparently so did the climate scientists.
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past I tells ya.
Here is the link for the Independent article
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/australias-epic-drought-the-situation-is-grim-445450.html
Here is a history of the area floods, reduced to a graph:
http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml
Shame on the AGW fear mongers.
They have much to answer for.
“Greg says:
January 13, 2011 at 12:48 am
Heck, I live here in Brisbane, Australia and lived through the 1974 floods as well while the peak here was only 4.2 metres, not the 4.6 metres on 1974. However this is not the only instance of earlier floods being worse. The floods in the 1840s and 1890s peaked at over 8 metres how does Trenberth explain this, especially since the levels of CO2 were much lower then. Fools like this burn me up especially when I don’t see people like this here rescuing people or helping to clean up the flood mess.”
Well said Greg. Good luck mate.
cheers David
My only surprise is the time it took for the claim to be made. I guess Trenberth needed a few days to garner a little bottle courage. Then again, perhaps all the overheated kooks now get together in secret and draw straws to see who gets to stick their head above the iceberg.
Terrible indeed, according to them, “wetter and cooler world is caused by hotter world”, confusing or creating cause and effects when there is none, http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2011/01/australia-floods.html
Here is a link to an AP story posted in the NZ herald…….. It quotes Australian Professors who seem to want the funding to continue
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10699504
With all due respect to those writing here, practically the totality of those expressing their opinions are not really qualified to comment on energy and mass transport phenomena any more than they are qualified to opine on polymer engineering or molecular biology. How about getting a PhD in climatology or other relevant field first and only then writing on this complex subject (in a peer-reviewed journal, please) with some level of authority?
From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website:
“Flooding, unlike drought, is often quite localized, and therefore not as closely tied [as droughts] to broad-scale controls like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. However the La Niña years of 1916, 1917, 1950, 1954 through 1956, and 1973 through 1975, were accompanied by some of the worst and most widespread flooding this century. It can safely be said that, over much of Australia, flooding is more likely than usual during La Niña years, and less likely in El Niño years. ”
http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/climate/levelthree/c20thc/flood.htm
I live near the Murray river in southern NSW. The biggest flood ever recorded along the mid-section of the river occurred in 1870. The Darling also flooded that year and most of inland NSW from QLD to the Murray was awash for many weeks.
1956 was also a big flood year. ’74 and ’75 were also large as was 1993. We had another big one this year.
Big floods seem to happen on the Murray about every 17-20 years.
Makes me wonder if global warming is also cyclical.
“Climate change” what a totally meaningless concept, what would be the alternative, climate inalterability? Some people are likely to attribute it to satanic powers, some to the maja calendar, others to aboriginal spirits, none of them less valid claims than attributing attributing above average rainfall to “climate change”. A logically valid claim might be that intensified monsoon rains in Queensland indicate that climate in that area is changing, and provided such a trend could be identified this would be reasonable argument. Arguing the other way around is against all logic.
Other comment have already covered the aspect of this flood being less severe than others in Bribane’s history, even though the claimed Global Warming is worse now than previously. But there’s another factor involved which the alarmists are ignoring: urbanisation.
As we all know, urbanisation – with it’s property development on low-lying land, covering soil with concrete, asphalt, block-paving, and buildings – increases the likelihood of flooding in urban areas because the rain can’t drain into the ground where it’s supposed to go. And it tends to channel the river waters in such a way as to increase the speed of the flow, increasing erosion, and increasing the likelihood of catastrophic failures of levees, etc., when there’s too much water.
And yet, given all this urbanisation and all these inconvenient facts, the flood level is lower than before. But it’s all irrelevant, isn’t it. It was all caused by AGW. Stands to reason, doesn’t it. Yeah, right.
An opinion piece from one of the two mainstream newspapers in Perth on the other side of Australia from Queensland …
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/special-features/extreme-weather-the-worst-is-still-to-come/story-e6frg19l-1225985838522
Extreme weather: get used to it
MAJOR weather events in the past 12 months have one thing in common. Be it flood, fire or drought, they’re record breakers.
As fires continue to rage in WA following the driest year on record, floods have turned the eastern states into a giant swamp. The worst Queensland floods in history.
So are we experiencing the effects of anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change? Yes.
As fires to continue to rage in WA … referring to ONE bushfire in the middle of summer burning 2000ha (WA approx 250 million hectares) that destroyed eight houses, a granny flat and 10 sheds, thus getting national media attention, with police searching for an arsonist who sparked seven ignition points.
…. following the driest year on record …. the driest in the South West Land Division, with the overall WA 2010 rainfall average being 334mm vs the long term average of 341mm. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/wa/summary.shtml
… floods have turned the eastern states into a giant swamp … floods have swamped a good number of river systems that drain the other 95% of eastern states landmass, which has received much-needed rain to promise bumper crops and plentiful water supply for the next few years.
The worst floods in Queensland history … only in terms of infrastructure and building damage but dubious in terms of rainfall quantity or flood depth based on records back to 1841 and ignoring all prior history.
Every point in the first two sentences is either demonstrably wrong or a gross exaggeration, yet combined are the basis of the third sentence that barely warrants comment.
The other WA newspaper informed readers at the beginning of summer that “… the State sweltered its way through the hottest spring on record.”
http://www.waclimate.net/imgs/west-australian-newspaper-1-12-2010.gif
BoM seasonal statement for WA: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/season/wa/summary.shtml …
“When averaged over the whole state, spring 2010 was near average.”
The problem with Australia’s mainstream media is that most of its research is Australia’s mainstream media.
At least there’s hope to be found among reader messages to the above newspaper blog which suggest a growing number of Australians are figuring out that the mainstream media is great for entertainment but about as reliable as a long-term weather forecast when it comes to researched information.