UPDATES ADDED: See updates below the read more line
My heart goes out to Australia. The ugly side of this is that a portion of the tragedy may have been prevented with a dam to control floodwaters. But as James Delinpole writes:
Were it not for the actions of Environment Minister Peter Garrett, for example, the Queensland town of Gympie would not now be underwater. Unfortunately, Garrett took it upon himself to block the proposed dam that would have prevented it.
To add insult to injury, the state run warning system sent warning messages out six hours after the flood engulfed homes. – Anthony
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The disaster is extraordinary:
THE nation confronts its worst flood disaster in living memory, with 30 people believed dead and 90 missing in southeast Queensland.
The wall of water bearing down on Brisbane threatens to engulf thousands of homes and put more people at risk.
What I cannot understand is this: how was the possibility of such a danger not forseen, when climate experts and the Government claim they can predict the climate 100 years from now? How did this week’s rain come as such a surprise, when we now spend billions more on computer models predicting the future?
Some of the stories are tragic:
A three-year-old boy drowned at Ipswich, after floodwaters pulled him from his mother’s arms.
Sarah Norman yesterday told how her brother Sam punched a hole in the laundry ceiling and pushed their sister Victoria, 15, to safety after water flooded the brick home at noon on Monday.
“He went back to get Mum and Dad, but they had just gone. Victoria heard Mum scream,” Ms Norman said.
Steve Matthews, 56, an electrician and former pastor and his wife Sandy, 46, a teacher’s aide from Spring Bluff near Murphys Creek near Toowoomba, were found dead downstream on Monday afternoon.
UPDATE
How amazingly fast the floodwaters rose in Toowoomba.
UPDATE 2
The global warmists claimed Queensland’s rains would dry up, which is why the Labor Government built a desalination plant – now mothballed – instead of yet more dams:
(Premier Peter) Beattie said the effects of climate change on our region meant we could no longer rely on past rainfall patterns to help us plan for the future…
“My advice indicates if we continue to experience below average rainfalls it could take several years (anywhere from five to ten years) for our major dam system to climb back up past 40 percent even with purified recycled water, desalination and the other measures we’re taking to supplement our water supplies.
“Given the current uncertainty about the likely impact of climate change on rainfall patterns in SEQ over coming years, it is only prudent to assume at this stage that lower than usual rainfalls could eventuate.
But Heather Brown, a Toowoomba resident, says locals made other bad choices in the same mistaken belief that floods would not come:
Tragically, it seems some of the most basic rules of survival – and certainly the most elementary rule of town planning – were forgotten in the case of Toowoomba, a city that is dissected by East Creek and West Creek, two deceptively innocent looking little creeks that seem to run as much water as a decent suburban gutter for most of the year.
Admittedly, Toowoomba – Australia’s Garden City – has been battling drought for almost a decade… Along the way, the creeks have been prettied and preened and slotted into your typical modern urban plan. And the breadth of their flow – and their seminal right to a small flood plain – has been gradually stolen away.
At the intersections of Victoria, Margaret and Russell streets – where the boiling muddy tsunami was its fiercest and most graphically filmed – the city council had embarked on an ambitious beautification plan to turn the creek into a pleasing urban feature, complete with boardwalks, gardens, illumination and seating. Everyone thought it was wonderful, except for cynics such as my husband and me. In fact, every time we drove past the feature we would say to no one in particular: This little creek is going to make them sorry one day. Tragically, we were right.
Early yesterday morning I went back to the bruised and battered Margaret Street to support any local business that still had the heart to open. My coffee shop was handing out free coffees to the battered owners of the local businesses who had lost so much. When I went to buy my newspaper, the newsagent told me he was devastated, not because of what had happened but because the engineer who had worked on the beautification project told him he couldn’t make them listen when he pleaded for bigger pipes – “18-footers” he called them – to let the water through, because it simply didn’t suit the aesthetics of the architects and landscapers.
So that’s what happened to my city, folks, the same as happened to so much of flooded Queensland. We did stupid and really, really dumb things because we thought we could get away with them. We built the wrong sort of houses and the wrong sort of bridges. We built towns and suburbs on flood plains. And we ignored at our peril the forces of nature and the history of the great floods that have shaped this continent for thousands of years.
Read more at Andrew Bolt
UPDATE: The Herald Sun has a broad coverage Flood News Page here
UPDATE2: For some background on the Mary River dam that James Delingpole refers to there’s this entry in Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveston_Crossing_Dam
The question is whether it was more important to save fish or to protect people. From the Wiki article there’s this:
A University of Technology, Sydney report stated that “the proposed Traveston Dam near Gympie could pump up to 400,000 tonnes of greenhouse emissions into the atmosphere each year” and “even desalination, itself a last resort in a severe drought, would result in fewer emissions at 280,000 to 350,000 (annual tonnes) to yield the same quantity of water”.[10]
They apparently went with the desalinization plant, now mothballed. It seems that AGW gets into every discussion, even dams. The question has been raised as to whether or not this damn could have saved these people. I don’t know that it would or wouldn’t, but it would seem to me that more storage upstream helps in both times of drought and flood.
If it turns out that the dam would have made a difference, I hope that Environment Minister Peter Garrett will be in a public enquiry, so that people who have suffered in this tragedy can express their grief. Politicians need to hear that such actions have consequences. This isn’t the first time environmental issues have been blamed in Australian natural disasters. See this previous WUWT article on what people went through with the brush fires.
Some obvious points
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1. Most dams in flood/drought prone areas serve both as water catchment AND flood control. That is why most lakes in the SW US have the characteristic “Bathtub Ring”. Its not because of the mythological drought that the the greeny loons keep yammering about. The lakes are MAINTAINED at bellow capacity so that they are able to accommodate flood water.
2. The amount of water in the flood is huge. A properly designed dam and infrastructure, e.g. green belts, could have easily have accommodated it. Reference the Indian Bend Wash system that has been designed to handle 100 year floods plus an additional 12 feet of flood height.
3. Queensland is prone to severe flooding. Most places prone to flooding take 100 year floods into account when designing infrastructure and do not listen to econuts.
4. Andrew Bolt is a journalist. His hobby horse is dams. But he knows zero about water resource management. But he does know more then the lazy brat.
5. I despise people who accuse others of what they are guilty of. This is especially true when the nonsensical accusations are used to disparage someone pointing out the results of Marxist inspired policy.
Brisbane is built on flood plain and will become inundated regularly every 20 to 30 years, with a cool PDO and increased number of La Nina.
Town planners who talk about a big flood ‘once in a hundred years’ need to be re-educated.
Incidentally, Brisbane is an area where tailwater levels (and therefore flood heights) are tidally mediated. The comparison of 1974 and 2011 flood levels is not hugely meaningful for comparing flood volumes.
My question is ‘does the internet encourage people to come to instant and idiotic conclusions or is this just the human condition?”
It’s worth mentioning that a massive campaign was fought in the area of the Mary River dam by the locals. They didn’t want it – I don’t know what the level of support was in Gympie, but if Gympie wanted the dam, I saw no signs demanding it while I drove through there so many times. So I believe Peter Garrett (for whom I hold nothing but despite) simply bowed to public pressure.
The early warning system failed Toowoomba because it had to – it was never going to help, as it was SO sudden. Mind you, that’s how it’s always been in Toowoomba.
I would love to know what additional plans were made to stop 1974 happening again. It would be fascinating to see a critique of what was planned, how it would have worked, when levels of the plan were dumped, by whom, and why?
I’m sure there is an enlightening story therein.
Cheers,
Tim
I live in the area covered by this article. I have to strongly disagree with Delingpole and Bolt on their dam comments. The Wivenhoe dam did save Brisbane from worse flooding, yes, but only because it was designed to do so. It was built with a tremendous amount of flood storage. However, it only covered a portion of the Brisbane River catchment, hence the floods that are still working their way through the city.
Gympie, however, is a completely different story. The proposed dam there had seen a sustained campaign against it by the people for years before Garrett finally put the nail in the coffin on those plans. I suspect the fish argument was just to save face as it was a political nightmare due to the strenuous public opposition. Due to the lay of the land where it would have been built, it would have been a very shallow dam with no flood storage whatsoever, but with the loss of a great deal of very good farmland. Due to how much rain was received in the area over December, it would have been 100% full when the surge came down the river, and would have had no mitigating effect on the Gympie floods at all.
Also – this article has seemed to imply that the deaths could have been prevented by this cancelled dam. The deaths happened elsewhere. The destruction in places like Toowoomba and Grantham would not have been prevented by a dam.
This is sensationalist and misleading reporting.
In regards to their expectations of future rain patterns – yes, it had been the prevailing “wisdom” that Queensland was drying up and that new dams and water recycling and desal plants were necessary to secure our future water supply. The real issue is rising population and the ability of the existing infrastructure built decades ago to support burgeoning populations.
I must apologise for being totally remiss in not immediately offering my sympathies. It’s just that I so often see engineers disregarded, my anger gets the better of me.
DaveE.
shortie of greenbank says:
January 12, 2011 at 3:00 pm
Robert Ellison says:
January 12, 2011 at 3:02 pm
obviously somewhat conflicting information. As I am in the Uk and can only rely on MSM coverage, it is difficult to know what has been going on. But I do hope someone is asking the right questions, just to be sure!
The damage and loss is tragic for sure; but the problem is one of planning and doing silly things like building housing estates on prior marshes and flood plains.. There is a darn good reason why such places persisted up to the point of development as marshes and flood plains without properties on them. Even if AGW were true, it only makes the odds of a flood longer (or more perhaps), it doesn’t remove it completely.
Also given this 100 year flood looks to have occurred twice in the last 100 years (okay I know we need at least another 50 to prove that absolutely true) the insurance companies can cry ‘uninsured risk’ and/or ramp up the premiums. Such flood prone areas will be so expensive to insure that nobody will be able to afford to live there with insurance.
Also the ill informed Greens do have a lot to answer for in this; first the terrible fires in Vic helped along by lack of fuel management, and now Queensland and NSW floods helped along by lack of water course management. Man is part of the system and can actually help keep things like this in check for the better of the whole ecology; you tie one or both hands behind your back wrt ecology management and things start to get dangerous very quickly. There is no such thing as a natural ‘balance’; nature is chaotic by default, man actually is the only influence that wants balance and stability.
Jeremy says (January 12, 2011 at 3:06 pm): “Stupidity is not unique to Australia. How many Americans live within five miles of the Californian coast and within a 20 feet from sea level?”
Not us! We’re about 200m above sea level in the hills above Silicon Valley. Safe and sound right next to the San Andreas Fault. 🙂
Robert Ellison, you said:
That is completely untrue. The dam only just reached 191% capacity yesterday. The fact that it rapidly filled to that level over the preceding days meant that all that water did not flow down the Brisbane River all at once, thus reducing the overall flood surge going through Brisbane yesterday and this morning. The dam definitely did what it was designed to do, and did it well.
Also, Wivenhoe dam’s flood storage limit is 225%, not 200%, so it still had a ways to go before they would have had to do unrestrained releases to prevent total dam failure.
“David, UK says:
January 12, 2011 at 1:25 pm
And all because the enviro-fascists claimed that this kind of flooding was a thing of the past due to global warming. What’s the betting they will now attribute this very flood to just that: global warming?”
They already did (Google translate):
http://translate.google.no/translate?hl=no&sl=no&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aftenposten.no%2Fklima%2Farticle3984651.ece
Original article at:
http://www.aftenposten.no/klima/article3984651.ece
The usual suspects are provied as sources (BBC , MET , Reuters).
Aftenposten is the leading newspaper in Norway. The paper is also a totally and utter warmist rag, spewing ut propaganda at every opportunity. They have a number of dedicated “Climate Journalists” working hard to secure their job, preaching the gloal warming gospel. The paper is simply a totally and utter warmist rag, spewing ut shameless propaganda at every opportunity.
“David, UK says:
January 12, 2011 at 1:25 pm
And all because the enviro-fascists claimed that this kind of flooding was a thing of the past due to global warming. What’s the betting they will now attribute this very flood to just that: global warming?”
They already did (Google translate to English):
http://translate.google.no/translate?hl=no&sl=no&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aftenposten.no%2Fklima%2Farticle3984651.ece
Original article at:
http://www.aftenposten.no/klima/article3984651.ece
The usual suspects are provided as sources (BBC , MET , Reuters, Trenberth).
Aftenposten is the leading newspaper in Norway. The paper is also a totally and utter warmist rag, spewing ut propaganda at every opportunity. It has a number of dedicated “Climate Journalists” working hard to secure their job, preaching the global warming gospel.
(Ooops! Sorry about all the errors in my first post. Prematurly hit “submit”. An “edit” function would be nice. Moderator, please delete it).
I also live in the affected area and had the option of being evacuated by the SES on Tuesday evening.
One thing I know for sure is that after these types of extreme events, a Royal Commission needs to be held. Not to place blame, but to learn and improve our ability to avert or minimise the inevitable future floods.
The 2nd thing I know is that NOTHING, absolutely nothing could have prevented the terrible Toowoomba flash flood described as an inland tsunami.
By contrast, the Brisbane flood is a slowly rising immovable force.
The 3rd thing I know is that the Wivenhoe dam ws built PRIMARILY as a flood mitigation project. Our leaders at the time of the 74 floods said they would do everything possible to avert future floods. The Wivenhoe was commenced soon after and completed in the early 80’s.
However, Wivenhoe was not the only mitigation strategy. There was to be numerous other, smaller projects such as water diversion channels etc These were not built. (my knowledge is limited in this particular area, others may be able to add to or correct me)
There are some legitimate questions that need to be asked during a Royal Commission without trying to lay blame. e.g. Wivenhoe MUST release water within 7 days of reaching the 100% water storage capacity (even though it can go to 225% as the flood mitigation portion) Knowing that the dam had reached this 100% capacity earlier in the year EVEN BEFORE ENTERING the Queensland wet season AMIDST THE STRONGEST LA NINA for many years, should the rules governing Wivenhoe operations be adjusted? Should we pretend that AGW will cause more droughts than floods and the dam will rarely fill to capacity?
Finally, to those having a go at Andrew Bolt. Bolt didn’t pull his statements out of his ar$e. They were based on a QUEENSLAND GOVERNMENT REPORT which claimed that had a dam been built across the Mary River, only 6 out of 104 businesses would have gone under and the flood level would have been 4 metres lower based on the study of the even bigger flood of 1999.
Kev-in-UK
http://www.seqwater.com.au/public/catch-store-treat/dams/wivenhoe-dam
As of 11/01/2011 the level had not reached 200%, with an upward limit of 225%. It takes some time for all the water in the catchment to filter through so it will most probably breach that level in the coming days possibly going to uncontrolled levels of release.
Deepest sympathy to all those effected by these floods.
I find it difficult to fathom why the planning authorities let developers build on flood plains without forcing them to put in place the infrastructure to deal with probable floods – exact same thing happens in the UK.
It would seem common sense goes out the window if someone sees the chance of making an extra buck!
Brazil faces worst flooding in 25 years.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-12171710
Gabriel Hauber says:
January 12, 2011 at 3:33 pm
As I said earlier, conflicting info being passed around. I do recall perhaps about 48/36 hrs ago some report on the BBC (and some pictures I think) saying the Wivenhoe was releasing water which was half the reason I posed the question as to dam levels.
Let’s not anyone get adversarial over this, but it would be nice to have some hard facts if anyone knows where they are!
Traveston dam was a very bad idea as pointed out by earlier posts. The headwaters of the Mary River behind Maleny has many suitable areas, The Obi Obi valley and near Conondale are a couple of examples. Perfect sites for dams but hated by Greenies because of the Sacredness of all thing rain forest. The Mary has two dams already above Gympie being Baroon Pocket and Borumba.
Rainfall in Queenland is highly variable. Some examples in SE Qld: 1893 Peachester in Sunshine Coast hinterland 930 mm (37 inches) in 24 hours which flooded Brisbane from that event. Some years in SE QLd has had only 20 or 30 inches for the entire year followed by years with 100 inches plus. Queensland is basically flat interupted by The Great Diving Range which practically hugs the Coast. The topography makes most of the rainfall fall on the Coastal Plain where everyone wants to live. This also means that the population centres are situated on major rivers. This had to happen historically because you need water when there is a drought, not much good when it’s flooding.
This is a planning issue that needs careful thought. However flooding will continue regardless as it will be too expensive to stop it all.
BTW the biggest issue confronting the whole of Queensland at this time is that it is saturated and other major rainfall events are likely to happen further ( 100% according to my complex computer model I have developed between my right and left ears) as we have probably up to 4 to 6 more months of potential rainy season left, February traditionally our wettest.
This is a long way from over.
Michael
I’ve just been listening to the midnight news on BBC Radio 4. Their reporter on the floods attributed the events to La Nina patterns, without one mention of warming. I was ready to turn it off if the usual meme started but it didn’t come. This is unusual for the beeb but I expect they’ll sharpen up the agw angle as things move along.
Kev-in-UK says:
January 12, 2011 at 3:21 pm
shortie of greenbank says:
January 12, 2011 at 3:00 pm
Robert Ellison says:
January 12, 2011 at 3:02 pm
obviously somewhat conflicting information. As I am in the Uk and can only rely on MSM coverage, it is difficult to know what has been going on. But I do hope someone is asking the right questions, just to be sure!
Shorties interactive map is out of date by a good deal – and in fact is relevant only to water supply and not flood levels. 200% is the safe flood capacity – as of half an hour ago this is the report in the Courier Mail – http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/wivenhoe-dam-level-dropping-slowly/story-fn6ck45n-1225986959776
There are a couple of other misconceptions.
The method of calculating the average return interval of floods is very simple. The peak flood in any year is listed in order of magnitude. In a 100 year record – the biggest flood is the 1 in 100 year flood, the next the 1 in 99 year flood etc. Serious flooding occurs in perhaps 5 to 10% of years anywhere. Expect flooding every 10 to 20 years.
Ask an engineer/hydrologist? Yeah whatever.
Cheers
Robert I Ellison BE(Hons), MEnSC, CPEng, RPEQ
With the permission of the mods I’d like to add the following to my lengthy post above.
A SECRET report by scientific and engineering experts warned of significantly greater risks of vast destruction from Brisbane River flooding – and raised grave concerns with the Queensland government and the city’s council a decade ago.
Yes, a Royal Commission is needed.
I’d also like to add my support to a comment above about the Queensland Premiere Anna Bligh.
I am by no means a supporter of Bligh in a political sense. But the woman has been nothing short of sensational throughout this disaster. I have nothing but respect and gratitude for the work she has done and continues to do. Good onya Anna.
kev in the uk
Yes, all dams were full. Only wivenhoe is designed explicitly with flood mitigation in mind. Believe me , they were releasing as much as they dared, but there was simply too much water. Wivenhoe has worked exactly as designed as they time the releases to coincide with the low tide to minimize impact on Brisbane. It’s hard for people in other countries to comprehend this, but it’s been raining heavily since the start of December and the flood affected area is greater than that of Germany and France combined. There is nothing that could have been done. Where the majority of deaths occurrd is 700m above sea level and on streams you can normally jump over. Nobody would ever suggest putting a Dam on these tiny little waterways. A flash flood is like an earthquake – largely unpredictable and can strike pretty much anywhere.
The politicians can be blamed for their ridiculous desal plant and on their lack of dams for water supply but no man-made infrastructure was going to make a jot of difference to this amount of water.
On the traveston crossing dam Andrew bolt is totally wrong, something that has been pointed out to him many times by readers, but he persists because it was cancelled on environmental reasons as a fig leaf to cover up the political idiocy of starting the project in the first place. The engineers all said it was a bad i
Place for a dam, but nobody listened to them. It was politically expedient to announce the dam far enough away from brisbane voters to win an election but it looked like seriously damaging the chances of the federal govt so it was cancelled, citing the lungfish as the reason.
FYI, Anthony..
Peter Garrett has not been Minister for the Environment since the August 2010 Federal Election here in Australia. He was replaced by Simon Crean after Garrett suffered an 8% swing against him in his electorate (which turned his seat from a “comfortable 13% majority” to a “shaky 5%”).
Additionally, it appears Al gore has been found!! He made a statement in Indonesia yesterday where
Strange how he was silent about the blizzards across Europe and North America. I guess he’s finally figured out that snow is not warm.
Apologies, it appears the source link I tried to put into my above post didn’t work.. (I’ve never got the hang of HTML codes).
Source for the Al Gore comment is: http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/home/al-gore-chaos-awaits-if-nothing-happens/416000
Strange energies of Oz.
Greenies crucified the individuals who cleared the trees around their house.
Greenies crucified the family with the feedlot.
Now greenies hijacked the environment again it seems.
Yet there is so much potential in permaculture and biodynamic farming, two systems that Australia can be proud of for pioneering. Australian Peter Proctor has taken B-D farming to India where farmers are taking it up en masse, because it is healing the land they farm on that was being ruined and turned into iron-hard dead clods by chemical farming. It works at all levels, both for the land, the plants and animals on the land, and the people who farm. This is not a case of saving cod at the expense of humans – or vice versa – it’s win-win.
My plea: we all need to get more literate in science and engineering and economics and environmentalism – to discern the good and the genuine and not rely on the dangerous crutches of “authority”.