Climate change to continue to year 3000 in best case scenarios
New paper in Nature Geoscience examines inertia of carbon dioxide emissions
New research indicates the impact of rising CO2 levels in the Earth’s atmosphere will cause unstoppable effects to the climate for at least the next 1000 years, causing researchers to estimate a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet by the year 3000, and an eventual rise in the global sea level of at least four metres.
The study, to be published in the Jan. 9 Advanced Online Publication of the journal Nature Geoscience, is the first full climate model simulation to make predictions out to 1000 years from now. It is based on best-case, ‘zero-emissions’ scenarios constructed by a team of researchers from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (an Environment Canada research lab at the University of Victoria) and the University of Calgary.
“We created ‘what if’ scenarios,” says Dr. Shawn Marshall, Canada Research Chair in Climate Change and University of Calgary geography professor. “What if we completely stopped using fossil fuels and put no more CO2 in the atmosphere? How long would it then take to reverse current climate change trends and will things first become worse?” The research team explored zero-emissions scenarios beginning in 2010 and in 2100.
The Northern Hemisphere fares better than the south in the computer simulations, with patterns of climate change reversing within the 1000-year timeframe in places like Canada. At the same time parts of North Africa experience desertification as land dries out by up to 30 percent, and ocean warming of up to 5°C off of Antarctica is likely to trigger widespread collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, a region the size of the Canadian prairies.
Researchers hypothesize that one reason for the variability between the North and South is the slow movement of ocean water from the North Atlantic into the South Atlantic. “The global ocean and parts of the Southern Hemisphere have much more inertia, such that change occurs more slowly,” says Marshall. “The inertia in intermediate and deep ocean currents driving into the Southern Atlantic means those oceans are only now beginning to warm as a result of CO2 emissions from the last century. The simulation showed that warming will continue rather than stop or reverse on the 1000-year time scale.”
Wind currents in the Southern Hemisphere may also have an impact. Marshall says that winds in the global south tend to strengthen and stay strong without reversing. “This increases the mixing in the ocean, bringing more heat from the atmosphere down and warming the ocean.”
Researchers will next begin to investigate more deeply the impact of atmosphere temperature on ocean temperature to help determine the rate at which West Antarctica could destabilize and how long it may take to fully collapse into the water.
The paper “Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions” by Nathan P. Gillett, Vivek K. Arora, Kirsten Zickfeld, Shawn J. Marshall and William J. Merryfield will be available online at http://www.nature.com/ngeo/index.html
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I really had to laugh at the headline provided with the press release:
Climate change to continue to year 3000 in best case scenarios
Let’s see, did the climate change at all during the last 1000 years?
It depends on who you ask.
The Hockey Team says no:
Others who are not members of the Hockey Teamsters Union of Concerned Scientists say yes:
History tells us the second graph is the more likely truth.
There has been a mistake here . . . this is a story from the Faculty of Arts, Creative Writing Department.
Just another attempt at Hairy Scary We Are All Gonna Die “science”.
Wonder if it id time for Grant Applications to be decided?
Kate says:
January 10, 2011 at 3:14 am
Just imagine by way of analogy the question of international politics and the delicate diplomacy required with, and between some nations. Instead of the experts, historians and analysts, lets ask the Chuckle Brothers.
We can create anything we like from what if scenarios. There is no end to the nonsense that is possible from what if.
If my cat barked and was canine, it would have been a dog. Both have four legs, so in my “what if” simulations I can easily manipulate a few computer keys to transform my cat into an imaginary dog.
And that will be the truth, thrown from above, of an impending future prediction.
This is what the public will be told. (It is always impending)
Reality is that my cat will always be a cat.
I am ashamed of being an Albertan when I read this nonsense.
I agree with this:
David, UK says:
January 10, 2011 at 1:37 am :
“You know that there is no credibility in this paper. I know that. Most people who visit this blog know that. But actually, “the gullible” (I fear) do not know that. …….. . ”
@ur momisugly Princess Leia says:
January 10, 2011 at 2:28 am
“The more these alarmist squeal and rant, the more rational people will disbelieve them.”
Right you are, but there are not enough rational people to outvote the warmist sheeple.
Great comments by the rest of you.
Here is Shawn Marshall’s e-mail as posted at Univ of Calg. if you want to comment to him.
shawn.marshall@ur momisuglyucalgary.ca
Little did I know that The Day The Earth Caught Fire [along with AGW, an utterly stupid concept of a nuclear explosion altering the Earth’s orbit/climate!] poster would be used in WUWT.
The reason I post is because that movie was my first job as a Special Effects Assistant and it was responsible in me becoming a skeptic regarding any hysterical forecast of Mankind’s ability to engineer planetary changes.
The inertia in intermediate and deep ocean currents driving into the Southern Atlantic means those oceans are only now beginning to warm as a result of CO2 emissions from the last century.
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Hasn’t the southern ocean been warming up first, and cooling down first?
We have heard about the warm water around Antarctica for years now.
Anywho, glad this is over. There’s not one thing we can do about CO2 levels.
Brad, you’ll need to be a little more specific than “a right-winger on Twitter”. As it is, you’re projecting a serious urban-legend vibe.
“Researchers will next begin to investigate more deeply the impact of atmosphere temperature on ocean temperature to help determine the rate at which West Antarctica could destabilize and how long it may take to fully collapse into the water.”
Why wait 1,000 years to find out they are wrong, when they haven’t gotten it right yet?
I’d hate to have to pay thier heating bill, what with the front door and windows left open during a blizzard.
Just when you think the warmists have jumped the shark, they come up with an even more ridiculous scare story.
Even politicians can see through this one – right?
I’m at a loss for words.
These nutty scientists are beginning to sound like pigs squealing at the county fair.
Are they trolling for movie rights? In my opinion, “Them” had a much better scary scenario plot and spawned many more sequels. Which of course it had too, because of the last words in the last scene spoken by the scientist regarding the true and present danger of nuclear testing.
Mark my words, one of these idiots will revise the move “The Day After Tomorrow” by saying they predicted it. “Cold” equals warming and is the shivering lull before the fire and brimstone.
My ancestors came up with a saying about folks like these: snake oil salesmen. It is on us to be labeled stupid if we fall for this.
The models didn’t happen to contain the specifications for the warp drive engines on the starship Enterprise did they.That could be real helpful.:-)
I’VE DONE IT!!
I found a way to reduce my power bill and CATASTROPHIC carbon footprint by some 30% without:
1. Resorting to draconian measures such as installing expensive, poisonous and safely unrecyclable compact flouros
2. Switching those stupid lights off when not needed
3. Kowtowing to ridiculously expensive solar panels that will have their feed-in tariffs cut back soon
4. Buying into expensive, ineffective and heavily subsidised wind power and;
5. Mindless stupidity such as endorsing Brumby’s idiotic plan to cut 1/4 of Hazelwood’s DANGEROUS coal power output (without a plan to cover the lost megawatts effectively sans blackouts)..
It’s just so simple. I drilled an invisible 1mm hole in my meter and jammed a wire against the disc to stop it turning on the weekends. Now, on the bill, it also calculates my CATASTROPHIC carbon footprint as greatly reduced.
Now to get hold of my electrician mate and find a way of getting round those new “smart meters” that are being rolled out and we’re ALREADY paying for even before they’re installed – and see if I can drop my CATASTROPHIC carbon footprint further.
See? I’m doing my bit and I’m sure we can all do the same to SAVE THE PLANET. Being green and energy conscious makes me feel all warm and fuzzy.. 😉
As I am sitting here in Atlanta with 6 inches of snow outside … yes, I know it was caused by global warming … but I was just wondering … I guess engaging in a what if scenario … what if we are entering a new ice age. How much devastation would that cause? I don’t know if the seas would rise and I assume it would be good for polar bears, but wouldn’t it be really really bad for humans. Therefore because it could be potentially much worse for humans that warming, shouldn’t we be spending ridiculous amounts of money preventing a new ice age? Just asking.
PEOPLE, PEOPLE, PEOPLE!!! Not so harsh!!! Let’s just wait and see if they are correct.
Oh, oh, they’re beginning to wise up. For many of you, remember the ice age almost at our back door in the 70’s from too much pollution; within twenty years, according to that guy from “Cheers,” the oceans would be dead; there would be no more adirondack forest due to acid rain; everyone in Argentina was going to get skin cancer from the ozone hole sitting overhead. Now they have, through endless studies of course, come to the conclusion that humans live awhile longer than your average lemming, and we have seen the drama come and go-better play it real safe and go out a 1000 years (that Methuselah, he’s dead… right?)
Henry@Smokey
What do think of this investigation result:
no global warming in South Africa during the past 37 years…
http://letterdash.com/HenryP/assessment-of-global-warming-and-global-warming-caused-by-greenhouse-forcings-in-pretoria-south-africa
Would be honoured to hear your opinion about it…?
Trivial Pursuit:
Do you happen to know just how much closer the Earth has to get to the Sun to feel any significant affect in terms of rising temperature due to closer proximity to solar irradiance? Since we now know the math, how far off was the movie?
Did anybody ever read the New Scientist – Thermogeddon article…
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20827864.300-countdown-to-thermogeddon-has-begun.html
“Jacob Neilson says:
January 10, 2011 at 4:50 am
A much overlooked English prog/pop band of the 1970s, City Boy, released an excellent album in 1979 called “The Day the Earth Caught Fire”. Check it out. In light of the present articles, I shall re-read the lyric sheet from my original vinyl version tonight.”
Don’t worry, Leo Hickman of the Guardian is on the case:
Al Gore, Gary Neville or Cheryl Cole: who would you trust on climate change?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2011/jan/10/climate-change-celebrity-power-survey?showallcomments=true#comment-fold
Marcus Kesseler says:
January 10, 2011 at 4:54 am
“… the model predicted that by the year 2000 I would earning over 5 million a month! Wow! And it was coming out of a computer. So it had to be true.
Alas, my first name is neither Bill nor Larry. So, in later years my salary (measured by using numbers on my bank statements as proxies) started to diverge from the model! It’s a travesty, but I still can’t account for the missing cash. And unlike others I was unable to hide the decline…
Best regards,
Marcus”
Marcus, excellent analogy. But don’t despair, you were right all along! Didn’t you know that increasing salary actually causes less salary? Like global warming causes cooling.
Dave (UK) says: It’s shocking that someone as intelligent as Boris Johnson should be in that list. What is he thinking of! He’s sussed the EU, so why is he taking so long to see through AGW?!
…Boris is listed as being influential to those polled. I don’t think he has backed AGW in the past, and it’s doubtful that someone so politically astute would be taken in by it now.
Even the inestimable Piers Corbyn would find it difficult to find a ready money buyer for a 1000 year hence weather forecast.
Good News indeed.
Now we need no longer worry about any new “Ice Age” or glaciation returning anytime soon.
My children, our grandchildren and many generations of all sorts of children need not worry about starvation due to crop failures or simply freezing to death as the Earth gets progressively colder, because thanks to an increase of an atmospheric trace gas which we have elected to name as a “Greenhouse gas” the solar system has broken out of a 2.5 million year old cooler than average cycle.
I take this opportunity to thank you all for your contributions of atmospheric CO2 however small it may have been.
Kevin says:
January 10, 2011 at 5:01 am
“I thought the world was going to be over in 100 years.”
Nahhhh… according to some interpretations of the Mayan calendar, it’s all gonna’ blow in 2012, so relax. No need to worry about the year 2100 or 3000 for that matter.