Climate change to continue to year 3000 in best case scenarios
New paper in Nature Geoscience examines inertia of carbon dioxide emissions
New research indicates the impact of rising CO2 levels in the Earth’s atmosphere will cause unstoppable effects to the climate for at least the next 1000 years, causing researchers to estimate a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet by the year 3000, and an eventual rise in the global sea level of at least four metres.
The study, to be published in the Jan. 9 Advanced Online Publication of the journal Nature Geoscience, is the first full climate model simulation to make predictions out to 1000 years from now. It is based on best-case, ‘zero-emissions’ scenarios constructed by a team of researchers from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (an Environment Canada research lab at the University of Victoria) and the University of Calgary.
“We created ‘what if’ scenarios,” says Dr. Shawn Marshall, Canada Research Chair in Climate Change and University of Calgary geography professor. “What if we completely stopped using fossil fuels and put no more CO2 in the atmosphere? How long would it then take to reverse current climate change trends and will things first become worse?” The research team explored zero-emissions scenarios beginning in 2010 and in 2100.
The Northern Hemisphere fares better than the south in the computer simulations, with patterns of climate change reversing within the 1000-year timeframe in places like Canada. At the same time parts of North Africa experience desertification as land dries out by up to 30 percent, and ocean warming of up to 5°C off of Antarctica is likely to trigger widespread collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, a region the size of the Canadian prairies.
Researchers hypothesize that one reason for the variability between the North and South is the slow movement of ocean water from the North Atlantic into the South Atlantic. “The global ocean and parts of the Southern Hemisphere have much more inertia, such that change occurs more slowly,” says Marshall. “The inertia in intermediate and deep ocean currents driving into the Southern Atlantic means those oceans are only now beginning to warm as a result of CO2 emissions from the last century. The simulation showed that warming will continue rather than stop or reverse on the 1000-year time scale.”
Wind currents in the Southern Hemisphere may also have an impact. Marshall says that winds in the global south tend to strengthen and stay strong without reversing. “This increases the mixing in the ocean, bringing more heat from the atmosphere down and warming the ocean.”
Researchers will next begin to investigate more deeply the impact of atmosphere temperature on ocean temperature to help determine the rate at which West Antarctica could destabilize and how long it may take to fully collapse into the water.
The paper “Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions” by Nathan P. Gillett, Vivek K. Arora, Kirsten Zickfeld, Shawn J. Marshall and William J. Merryfield will be available online at http://www.nature.com/ngeo/index.html
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I really had to laugh at the headline provided with the press release:
Climate change to continue to year 3000 in best case scenarios
Let’s see, did the climate change at all during the last 1000 years?
It depends on who you ask.
The Hockey Team says no:
Others who are not members of the Hockey Teamsters Union of Concerned Scientists say yes:
History tells us the second graph is the more likely truth.
HenryP says:
January 10, 2011 at 2:47 am
My results are showing that it has not been warming during the past 37 years.
At least not here, in Pretoria, South Africa.
I think you might find this investigation done by myself interesting!?”
I used Philadelphia PA data and got a definite cooling trend over the past 60 years. Using this trend, and minutes of hand calculator computing power (as well as some pen and paper figuring) I calculate the local temperature will be absolute zero in 1000 years. (the simulation actually predicts temperatures below absolute zero, but we all know that isn’t possible so I rounded up to zero)
There is strong (currently negative) correlation between the Arctic magnetic field and temperatures.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LL.htm
Geomagnetic field in the Siberian side of the Arctic is rising, while Canadian side at the same time has weaken. If the Arctic overall is gaining (as appear to be the case in the last 10 years) that could be an indication of further reduction in the NH’s average temperatures.
Henry@DavidL
Well, to prove a trend of cooling or warming you have to look at mean, maxima and minima
like I did
You must also look at comparable days as far as clouds are concerned
(easier to choose days without clouds)
See final note on the bottom
http://letterdash.com/HenryP/assessment-of-global-warming-and-global-warming-caused-by-greenhouse-forcings-in-pretoria-south-africa
You too can do this! It is easy. Prove it for yourself that it is not warming.
Kate says:
January 10, 2011 at 3:14 am
“4) Boris Johnson”
It’s shocking that someone as intelligent as Boris Johnson should be in that list. What is he thinking of! He’s sussed the EU, so why is he taking so long to see through AGW?!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100068044/you-saw-through-the-eu-boris-when-are-you-going-to-see-through-agw/
And it’s still raining in Queensland.
This report is being referenced on other discussion forums. This is a post from one such:
by Leonidas » Jan 10, 2011 11:23 am
Macdoc wrote:
“Kiss the world we know goodbye…it will take a while, but it’s gone. Nothing short of removal of carbon will change that reality and maybe not even that in the millenial term.”
Reply: You do know that the bodies of every living thing and everything they eat has to contain carbon don’t you? No carbon = no carbon based life-forms = no life on Earth.
“Climate change to continue to year 3000 in best case scenarios: research January 9, 2011”
Reply: Climate Change has been going on for billions of years. Of course it will continue up to year 3000 and beyond. Why would it not?
“New research indicates the impact of rising CO2 levels in the Earth’s atmosphere will cause unstoppable effects to the climate for at least the next 1000 years, causing researchers to estimate a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet by the year 3000, and an eventual rise in the global sea level of at least four metres.”
Reply: Any advance on four metres? Who will give me five? Yes, I have five who will give me six? Sixty six? Thank you Mr Gore. Any advance…
Hum 4 metres in 1,000 years = 40cms per century = 0.4cms per year. How can we possibly deal with that?
“The study, to be published in the Jan. 9 Advanced Online Publication of the journal Nature Geoscience, is the first full climate model simulation to make predictions out to 1000 years from now.”
Reply: Oh, it’s a simulation. I thought you were being serious.
“It is based on best-case, ‘zero-emissions’ scenarios constructed by a team of researchers from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (an Environment Canada research lab at the University of Victoria) and the University of Calgary.”
Reply: Climate models eh? They always work so well. And ‘zero-emissions’ as well. So we are doomed if we don’t emit any more carbon at all. Does that include stopping breathing? Personally I emit CO2 every day and intend doing so for a long time yet.
” “We created ‘what if’ scenarios,” says Dr. Shawn Marshall, Canada Research Chair in Climate Change and University of Calgary geography professor.”
Reply: What if the weather gets colder and colder and we have lots more cold winters? What if we get hit by a massive meteor? What if little green men…
” “What if we completely stopped using fossil fuels and put no more CO2 in the atmosphere? How long would it then take to reverse current climate change trends and will things first become worse?” The research team explored zero-emissions scenarios beginning in 2010 and in 2100.”
Reply: How long would it take until we all starved and froze to death?
“The Northern Hemisphere fares better than the south in the computer simulations, with patterns of climate change reversing within the 1000-year timeframe in places like Canada.”
Reply: Canadian team discover Canada will do better than elsewhere. But will they still be able to play ice-hockey? If not I predict a revolution.
“At the same time parts of North Africa experience desertification as land dries out by up to 30 percent, and ocean warming of up to 5°C off of Antarctica is likely to trigger widespread collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, a region the size of the Canadian prairies.”
Reply: Desertification in North Africa? Good lord, that will make everything look, well exactly the same as it is now. Has anybody told them there is already a whopping great desert in North Africa?. However climate change might change all that and that of course would be bad, like all change is bad of course. We must protect our lifeless deserts.
“and how many hundreds of millions live near the coasts?”
Reply: If we stop emitting CO2 then very soon none at all.
“It turns out that two-thirds of world’s largest cities — cities with more than five million people — are at least partially in these low areas. That’s important, because people are increasingly moving to cities.”
Reply: So on a best case scenario we are doomed, doomed because of course with only a thousand years to respond to all this there is nothing we can do. I wonder why Al Gore bought that seafront property? He should know that his distant descendants might have to move up the road.
“That is NOT a long time span……the oldest building in Venice was built in 639 – 1300 plus years ago. The next thousand will see it meters underwater as a diving site…..Along with most of Manhattan, London et al”
Reply: Have you seen pictures of bombed out cities in WWII? Within a generation they had been rebuilt. That is with 20th century knowledge. We can deal with rising sea-levels if they ever actually rise beyond the miniscule, hardly noticeable level applicable at the moment.
Anthony,
I wish these clowns would do some actual science beside suppositions to a peer review system of morons.
If we had the science of 10000 years would be fine, but only using the last 150 years to the exclusion of all others is gross incompetance.
We just happen to be the unfortunate smucks who do not have a clue that an Ice Age just ended and a new one is beginning.
The 10000 year cycle is just how long the ice recceds from the initial massive precipitation buildup and for growth to follow this recession of ice.
From vukcevic on January 10, 2011 at 3:31 am:
And would that be due to the magnetic North pole moving towards Russia at nearly 40 miles per year? (Where I saw that mentioned: Shift of Earth’s magnetic north pole affects Tampa airport)
of course this means the next ice age has to wait on human-kind.
But the clock won’t stop it’s mischievous ways.
There’s a simple scientific formula applicable to these nutters.
Degree of credibility is inversely proportional to intensity/duration of b/s.
MMMmmmm…. and this is what billions in both public and private funding has given us? I could have said the same thing and saved the taxpayers beaucoup bucks.
BTW, over the week-end, the folks in South Bend Indiana had 36 inches of Climate Change. I’m just waiting for the Alarmists to predict that there will be more lake effect events as “climate change” continues unabated.
Perry says:…..
I wasn’t sure anybody had read Dante’s Inferno
Nice one Mr Watts
2000 years ago, England was still under a sheet of ice and Egypt was green due to the receeding ice sheets.
Top soil depths give a good approximation of the generations of plant growth.
A much overlooked English prog/pop band of the 1970s, City Boy, released an excellent album in 1979 called “The Day the Earth Caught Fire”. Check it out. In light of the present articles, I shall re-read the lyric sheet from my original vinyl version tonight.
Hi,
I think these guys are being rather shy.
Why stop after 900 years, when you’re just beginning to have fun? They’re debasing their own supercomputer to a mere spreadsheet status. Why not go the whole hog and aim for a headline like:
Scientist find that due to the late 20th century CO2 emissions the next 1.000.000 years will be at least 5.4324 degrees warmer than the 1970-2000 average!
Yes! That would be a headline worthy of a GCM run on a proper supercomputer. And the MSM would go completely bananas!
That reminds me of a little computer modelling I did some decades ago. My first salary as a student was quite small but grew exponentially for some time thereafter. I put that data into a sophisticated computer model (using Lotus 123, a now extinct early evolutionary precursor to EXCEL), and lo and behold, the model predicted that by the year 2000 I would earning over 5 million a month! Wow! And it was coming out of a computer. So it had to be true.
Alas, my first name is neither Bill nor Larry. So, in later years my salary (measured by using numbers on my bank statements as proxies) started to diverge from the model! It’s a travesty, but I still can’t account for the missing cash. And unlike others I was unable to hide the decline…
Best regards,
Marcus
Hell it’s a good job these people are right about AGW, Imagine what the temps would be like without it.
TerrySkinner,
That’s a fine reply to this nonsense.
But there are more truly sinister reasons behind the endless promotion of this Big Lie about natural climate variability.
This article explains it very well.
I thought the world was going to be over in 100 years.
It is kinda like this video, which at first seems very scary, and then intelligent people realize this is a joke:
http://tinyurl.com/69kceh
Truly scary part? A true right winger on Twitter sent me this and is changing his life based on an Onion spoof, which can be confirmed with a little research as this rep does not exist. Funny and scary, same time.
This study is a continuation of the latest push by climate science, that the southern ocean around Antarctica is where the missing energy is, where the missing temperature rise is.
If one believes that, it is rather straightforward to keep increasing it for a thousand years even if CO2 emissions stop [and if one assumes the CO2 concentration will stay high for a thousand years despite articles posted at WUWT in just the last few days showing the turnover rate of CO2 in the atmosphere is just 4 years so should fall back to 280 ppm within a hundred years or so].
Of course, noone including the Argo floats can double-check the numbers produced by climate scientists for southern ocean around Antarctica. Expect more studies about warming Antarctic waters to come out because of this.
So… we are told that “… new research indicates the impact of rising CO2 levels in the Earth’s atmosphere will cause unstoppable effects to the climate for at least the next 1000 years, causing researchers to estimate a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet by the year 3000, and an eventual rise in the global sea level of at least four metres”.
Now why should anyone believe such nonsense? You know what… when ‘scientists’ start predicting the future, as in this case, then you know its time to ignore them.
CO2 levels in the atmosphere have, at times, been significantly higher (going back in time) than they have been in recent times. Why shouldn’t CO2 levels be expected to increase yet again, naturally?
I think scientists should just stick to their science and leave the ‘art’ of prediction to clairvoyants before they lose what little credibility they may have left!
I can’t wait to find out if they are right!
The more people turn off because the planet isn’t performing according to their script, the more outlandish their claims will become. There is no doubt now, AGW is a true religion and scientific journals the new bible.
Who’s worried about the climate a thousand years in the future? The human race will be extinct by then anyway. Remember this article from June 2010 (“Scientists predict human extinction in 100 years”)?:
http://www.redorbit.com/news/science/1881226/scientist_predicts_human_extinction_in_100_years/
But I’m an eternal optimist. If the human race somehow manages to survive, my decendants will own some fabulous beachfront property in Ohio!