BBC "disappears" headline "Coldest December Day on record for some sites"

People send me stuff. Strange, what could be so wrong or threatening about this story headline that it simply had to “vanish” without so much as a correction or a note as to why? Fortunately the Internet has a memory. This screencap below is from Google cache:

But if you go to Paul Hudson’s BBC blog right now…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

or to the original URL:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2010/12/coldest-december-day-on-record.shtml

You won’t find this headline. Instead, you’ll find this one:

Note the post time of 17:14 matches on the two stories, suggesting this has been a headline rewrite. Though, the article says:

So its been the equal coldest December day in the Vale of York since records began in 1932.

and

Scampton in Lincolnshire has experienced its coldest December day on record with minus 5.5C. Records here go back to the early 1950’s.

So, with those sentences, the headline would still be valid.

The story headline still exists in Google search findings, which is how I located the cached copy.

Note the headline was originally on the BBC home page according to the top link. I guess somebody didn’t like the original headline and decided it must be changed. h/t to WUWT reader “Pingo” for noticing.

On a related note, have a look at this headline right below the newly revised BBC story:

Ummm, sadly no. A “dead heat” is defined as:

The problem is that we have not yet reached “the finish line” for  2010, and compared to 1998, 2010 certainly doesn’t look like a “tie” to me. Here’s Dr. Roy Spencer’s UAH plot with some lines in purple I added comparing peaks of 1998 and 2010, and comparing the 13 month running average peaks of 1998 and 2010 in red:

Clearly, the peak temperatures between 1998 and 2010 are significantly different as shown by the gap in the two magenta lines.

But, what Mr. Hudson is focusing on with his “dead heat” statement is the red 13 month running average line, which “could” be said to be in a tie with 1998 at this moment. There’s only one problem, which becomes clear when we magnify Dr. Spencer’s UAH graph:

As indicated by my red arrow in the magnified view above, the 13 month running average stops in June, 2010, and the months of July, August, September, October, and November apparently aren’t included in it.

If they were, the red plot line would extend to the end of the graph. What’s comical about all this is that the 13 month running average was added by Dr. Spencer in response to complaints that the 25 month running average he had been using “hid the increase”. Read his explanation here: Is Spencer Hiding the Increase? We Report, You Decide

Since the temperature continue to drop, when we do finally get the completed 13 month running average for 2010 that includes all temperatures for 2010, Mr. Hudson will discover that red peak in 2010 will have dropped, and is nowhere close to a “dead heat” when the finish line is actually reached.

But since everyone wants to “close out 2010 early”, so as to help those partiers down in Cancun reach some sort of consensus and action, such stories claiming 2010 will be equal to or warmer than 1998, or the “hottest year on record” or in the “top three hottest years on record” seem to be the overreaching norm for media these days.

Since BBC is interested in correcting headlines, I’m sure our UK readers will want to point out this error to the BBC so that they can change it right away.

Place your bets now.

For those that might want to run their own plots to compare, here’s the actual UAH data for 1998:

   ANNUAL CYCLE BASED ON 79001-98365              12-MON RUNNING MEAN

   YEAR  MON  GLOBAL     NH      SH    TRPC  NO.DAYS   GLOBAL     NH      SH    TRPC  DAYS

   1998    1   0.582   0.612   0.552   1.097   31.      0.103   0.149   0.056   0.213   365.

   1998    2   0.753   0.857   0.649   1.291   28.      0.160   0.211   0.109   0.330   365.

   1998    3   0.528   0.655   0.401   1.025   31.      0.207   0.263   0.152   0.442   365.

   1998    4   0.770   1.014   0.525   1.059   30.      0.287   0.358   0.217   0.563   365.

   1998    5   0.645   0.685   0.606   0.885   31.      0.347   0.419   0.274   0.653   365.

   1998    6   0.562   0.635   0.490   0.536   30.      0.394   0.469   0.318   0.702   365.

   1998    7   0.510   0.659   0.362   0.442   31.      0.430   0.511   0.348   0.706   365.

   1998    8   0.518   0.544   0.492   0.447   31.      0.465   0.539   0.392   0.715   365.

   1998    9   0.458   0.571   0.345   0.312   30.      0.495   0.563   0.427   0.708   365.

   1998   10   0.416   0.519   0.312   0.339   31.      0.519   0.592   0.445   0.711   365.

   1998   11   0.192   0.272   0.113   0.130   30.      0.519   0.606   0.431   0.688   365.

   1998   12   0.277   0.416   0.138   0.073   31.      0.516   0.618   0.414   0.632   365.

and 2010:

   ANNUAL CYCLE BASED ON 79001-98365              12-MON RUNNING MEAN

   YEAR  MON  GLOBAL     NH      SH    TRPC  NO.DAYS   GLOBAL     NH      SH    TRPC  DAYS

   2010    1   0.648   0.860   0.436   0.681   31.      0.313   0.363   0.263   0.286   365.

   2010    2   0.603   0.720   0.486   0.791   28.      0.340   0.375   0.306   0.351   365.

   2010    3   0.653   0.850   0.455   0.726   31.      0.380   0.419   0.340   0.426   365.

   2010    4   0.501   0.799   0.203   0.633   30.      0.408   0.459   0.356   0.477   365.

   2010    5   0.534   0.775   0.292   0.708   31.      0.441   0.511   0.371   0.542   365.

   2010    6   0.436   0.550   0.323   0.476   30.      0.473   0.558   0.389   0.573   365.

   2010    7   0.489   0.635   0.342   0.420   31.      0.479   0.596   0.361   0.565   365.

   2010    8   0.511   0.674   0.347   0.364   31.      0.501   0.633   0.369   0.562   365.

   2010    9   0.603   0.555   0.650   0.285   30.      0.509   0.630   0.389   0.536   365.

   2010   10   0.419   0.365   0.473   0.152   31.      0.514   0.633   0.396   0.517   365.

Source: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.3

Update: Dr. Roy Spencer uses the term “dead heat” in the posting here.

Nov. 2010 UAH Global Temperature Update: +0.38 deg. C

Which I’ll have to say, I didn’t read, since that day I was attending to my wife in the hospital. Charles the Moderator posted the story for me (on WUWT). So this is where Mr. Hudson got the term, and I’m in error in assuming it was his term.

My point about the year not being finished, and average line in 2010 dropping with time, and the comparison of absolute peaks remains valid though.

1998    1   0.582   0.612   0.552   1.096   31.      0.103   0.149   0.056   0.213   365.

   1998    2   0.753   0.857   0.649   1.291   28.      0.160   0.211   0.109   0.330   365.

   1998    3   0.528   0.655   0.401   1.025   31.      0.208   0.263   0.152   0.442   365.

   1998    4   0.770   1.014   0.525   1.059   30.      0.288   0.358   0.218   0.563   365.

   1998    5   0.645   0.685   0.606   0.885   31.      0.347   0.419   0.275   0.653   365.

   1998    6   0.562   0.634   0.490   0.536   30.      0.394   0.469   0.319   0.702   365.

   1998    7   0.510   0.659   0.362   0.442   31.      0.430   0.511   0.348   0.706   365.

   1998    8   0.513   0.555   0.470   0.456   31.      0.465   0.540   0.390   0.715   365.

   1998    9   0.432   0.564   0.300   0.284   30.      0.493   0.564   0.422   0.706   365.

   1998   10   0.394   0.512   0.276   0.324   31.      0.514   0.592   0.437   0.708   365.

   1998   11   0.190   0.265   0.116   0.134   30.      0.514   0.605   0.423   0.685   365.

   1998   12   0.289   0.415   0.164   0.086   31.      0.512   0.617   0.408   0.631   365.