I’ve watched the hubbub over the AccuWeather video by Joe Bastardi that called NSIDC’s Sea Ice data into question, because it “seemed” to show lower Arctic Sea Ice values than that of JAXA or DMI. Here they all are:
JAXA AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent -15% or greater – click to enlarge
NANSEN Artic ROOS- Sea ice extent 15% or greater – click for larger image
NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Extent – 15% or greater – click to enlarge
As you can see above, NANSEN shows more ice than NSIDC, and JAXA seems to be a bit less than 2007, in line with NSIDC’s presentation. It all boils down to different algorithms and methodology giving different interpretations.
Like Mr. Bastardi, many people are comparing NSIDC graphs to other similar graphs on a daily basis and they will continue to do so. For some, it’s like a sport, and there’s even Vegas style betting done on sea ice minimums now, and in some cases real money is used.
But as we’ve seen, eyeballing can be an error prone activity, and a risky bet.
Mr. Bastardi erred due to eyeballing, of that there is no doubt. NSDIC was gracious enough to fill him in on his mistake and Mr. Bastardi corrected his mistake once he was made aware of it. He had to retract his original video and replace it with the update on Sunday (a day early). It has been my impression that he’s got a weekday shift at AccuWeather.com, and if so, good for him to come in and make a new video on a Sunday. Here is his correction:
A poor quality copy of the original video (with the mistake) is here
As Joe found out, eyeballing can get you in trouble. I’ve made similar eyeballing mistakes in the past. It gets compounded when you use that mistake as a basis to call out some organization like NSDIC. I’ll echo Joe Bastardi in saying that my contact at NSDIC, Dr. Walt Meier, has been “above board” with me and maintains an open line of communication. This is despite our differences of opinion on the sea ice. The fact that we can communicate in a friendly and cordial way despite our difference in opinion, is why you’ll find guest posts from Dr. Meier here on WUWT, such as this one wrapping up the 2010 melt season.
Like there have been good things coming from our collaboration with NSDIC, there can be a something good come from this eyeballing mistake and video retraction.
As I’ve said before in previous posts, a lot of eyeballing can be avoided by NSIDC publishing the daily data as other sea ice organizations do. I suggest again that NSIDC publish daily data, so that there’s no need for eyeballing when hard numbers can be compared.
As many know, NSIDC’s Dr. Mark Serreze has made the sea ice issue very high profile with his “death spiral” comments to major media, resulting in NSIDC being highly scrutinized in the current, ahem, “polarized” debate on sea ice.
While Dr. Serreze’s statements have the unfortunate side effect of raising their profile, I think the best choice for the public that they serve (after all, it is a U.S. government funded organization) is to rise to the scrutiny your organization has created for itself and publish the daily sea ice extent data. Everyone wins when such a thing occurs, and it could go a long way towards eliminating the perception (right or wrong) that NSIDC is the “odd man out” on sea ice if they would publish the hard data as other organizations do.
I’m hopeful to see NSDIC’s daily absolute values published regularly like JAXA does here, NANSEN does here, the University of Bremen does here, and UIUC (Cryosphere Today) does here. By doing so, there’s then no excuse for not using hard numbers in addition to graphs rather than simply eyeballing squiggly lines when comparing to NSIDC. If there’s a question on one of the plot lines, a simple look at the daily data will settle it immediately, assuming NSIDC publishes in a form that the public can easily use. Here’s to hoping that they do.
In other news, the temperature of 80N has hit a low about equal to the low of normal climatology, (the green line) but a bit early:
- Danish Meteorological Institute – Mean Temperature above 80°N – click for more
The Antarctic Ice Extent remains well above normal:
- NSIDC Antarctic Sea Ice Extent – 15% or greater – click to enlarge
The Antarctic long term trend remains up:
While the Arctic long term trend remains down:
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Slightly OT, but for anyone who doubts the speed of China’s current industrial revolution, newspaper reports in the past couple of days show photographs of the new Chinese high-speed train that has recently set new world speed records for such vehicles. Anybody still thinking ‘rickshaws’ when ‘China’ appears before them in print?
In the end it wont matter, because as long as all the involved parties use the same method, we will be able to see what is right and what is wrong. Its when there are
“readjustments” made to methodology that problems occur ( ie with the temperatures). In the end, so long as we can watch OBJECTIVE satellite data on the temps the next 20-30 years, and the way each of the sites measures ice remains consistent, we will have our answer, which is what I am all about. Some of my fears though are that policies are being set on conclusions that are not yet in, or put it this way, still up for debate. And of course I would be in favor of continuing this debate on ice and global temp until these big natural drivers have reversed and we see what 15-30 years of the OPPOSITE natural signal to warm does.
I have always advocated, and have gone out of my way, to ask the rational person to not trust me, but look at all the data, and as such I present the data and comment on it.
That NSIDC took the time out to make sure I understood what they were up too impressed me to no end and made sure this was cleared up. For the record, I work 7 days a week, as those that read my blog know ( along with my private clients) but was out of town over the weekend. I got into the office to make sure this was corrected as soon as I got into town, even at the expense of missing a large part of the PSU open wrestling tournament. Talk about commitment! ( some of you may think I should be committed) Be of good cheer and keep an eye on the ice.. right here on wuwt!
Well done Joe,at least you can make apologie[s] when you get things wrong it takes a big man to admit mistakes and own up….unlike the Team and its sycophants.
What did Joe Bastardi do wrong exactly? I’m missing an explanation, both here and in his new vid.
I was working off NE Greenland (80°N +) this summer and took some pictures of sea ice and icebergs covered in a layer of dirt (ash?) … presumably from the Eyjafjallajökull eruption. Anyone know how this would affect the melt rate in this area?
Jon
The reason for the Arctic melt and ice build up being different from the Antarctic is easily and readily explained by SST and associated drivers, and these drivers are easily and readily explained by ENSO parameters. Basically, large scale weather pattern variations. The climate in either location has not changed one iota. They are still considered to be arctic climate zones and nothing scary or unprecedented has happened. Historic and archeological evidence strongly suggests this has happened before. The hysteria over such tiny, insignificant wriggles being this or that, or slightly different from each other, is much ado about nothing.
Carbon soot causing increased artic ice melting makes a whole lof of sense to me. Every year I witness giant 2-story icebanks form on the shores of Lake Superior, and those wave-formed ice banks are jam-packed with sand. When the icebanks start melting the sand accumulates on the surfaces causing more melting.
Sometimes in a matter of a few warm days, the massive icebanks are gone. Its sort of eerie, one day they are there, and one day they are not.
Well done Joe,at least you can make apologie[s]
Did Joe apologize? I must have missed that. I don’t believe he said he apologized and he didn’t say he had made a (very silly) mistake. He just said that NSIDC contacted him, explained things and that he now believed NSIDC was ‘above board’. Judge Bastardi has ruled.
But I have to hand it to him, he did repeat many times over that NSIDC didn’t cook the books. I think that at least was very good of him.
Rates of Gain:
http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/5266/septnov.png
http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/4862/novjan.png
Fill pattern still closest to 2004.
One possibility I see regarding the dirty ice in the arctic is the fact that there are actively erupting volcanoes on the Kamchatka peninsula and the Aleutian islands. This is also true for the antarctic peninsula. These volcanoes are closer to the arctic and antarctic ice than China. As far as China’s pollution is concerned, how many times have we seen satellite shots showing its pollution blowing across the Pacific to California, Oregon, and Washington?
Kudo’s to Joe Bastardi for demonstrating true professionalism. When I was a resident of the Houston, TX area, you and Dr. Niel Frank were my “go to” men for hurricane forecasts.
It looks like Santa has been doing some practice runs this year; http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
[eyeballing], we could see an ice bridge to Iceland this year which would be an unusual event for the satellite record.
I am reading a book called Frozen Oceans. It says, “When ice is formed in coastal regions and shallow waters it is possible for large concentrations of sediments from the sea floor to become incorporated into the new ice. This is especially true of the Arctic coasts where in a year large rivers transport thousands of tonnes of particles from the land to the ocean. A whole range of particle types and sizes, from clay to larger soil pieces, can be incorporated into the ice and even tree trunks have been found in Arctic sea ice.
The most obvious effect of sediment in the ice is to discolour the ice. Where lots of sediment is trapped in the ice it can look black rather than white. Albedo is significantly reduced and rates of ice melt increased.
“Sediment-laden ice is a feature of sea ice in many regions of the Arctic Ocean, but it is seldom encountered in the Southern Ocean. This is because there are very few shallow coastal waters where sediments from the sea floor can be suspended into new ice and, of course, there are no rivers of significance on the Antarctic continent to introduce sediment to the surface.”
Particulates from coal are virtually all removed in modern (and refitted) North American and European plants (it wasn’t so a few decades ago). China’s old plants and India’s are the main culprits, but new plants are incorporating particulate capture technology. When the older plants are replaced – driven by the economics of energy efficiency- this problem will largely disappear. To bad the Catlin Exp. didn’t keep their few ice cores and have them analyzed for carbon- at least something useful would have come from from this silliness.
I’m glad to see that some commenters identified the possibility of volcanic responsibility for the “dirty” ice. Too often, in our hubris, we assume that there has to be a human role in anything that we are examining. This is a natural outcome of our egocentric natures.
China’s coal plants will end up doing a whole lot more harm to their immediate environment than they will to the global system. Check out a breakdown of the emissions from a volcanic eruption and compare it to human sources: It will be a good lesson in humility.
Kudos to Joe for his obvious integrity. If only we could all follow his example…
Re John-in-CA on Eastern Greenland ice, and the overall Arctic ice picture.
It would be fun to see an ice bridge, wouldn’t it? I suspect though that closure of such is difficult with strong currents through the gap (until blocked by a massive iceberg?).
The point I really wanted to make, though, is that cold Eastern Greenland, Norway, UK, etc. is largely due to an anticyclone roughly centred on Greenland. The consequence is that Western Greenland is warm, relatively, and the ice anomaly in that region is quite negative.
Rich.
Look at the arctic long term graph. 2007, it shifted into a different behavior. Larger seasonal swing than in the 10 years before. Did the method of observation change, or is this change real? (No, i don’t think it shifted into the death spiral mode; since 2007, it does these large swings but the average over a year doesn’t go up or down much.)
“”””” Anonymous commenter guy says:
December 5, 2010 at 6:59 pm
Here’s one from the peanut gallery. The downtrend in Arctic sea ice extent is caused by soot from China’s coal burning. Specifically, the soot falls on the ice and increases its albedo, making it melt a little faster. “””””
Best to remain anonymous methinks. Soot (carbon dust) would not be one’s first choice for a surface to increase the earth’s albedo; probably wouldn’t even make David Letterman’s Top Ten list either. But that is just my opinion.
Günther Kirschbaum says:
December 6, 2010 at 4:47 am
What did Joe Bastardi do wrong exactly? I’m missing an explanation, both here and in his new vid.
He compared NSIDC 2010 data with their 2007 data and with inter aliaJAXA 2010 data compared with their 2006 data by mistake and made innuendos about the NSIDC results being out of line with the other non-US data.
He also compared CT area anomaly data with extent data as if they were the same parameter.
NSIDC has just updated. Lots of interesting stuff that Anthony Watts won’t cover. His analysis consists of copypasting a few graphs and reporting ‘recovery’ when the trend line is over the others a bit.
REPLY: Sir, you are a disingenuous cad. How am I supposed to even know about it if it “has just updated”? My goodness, am I all seeing? This is the first I’ve heard of it. Since you didn’t include the full link, here it is:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2010/120610.html
This will be good for the next Sea Ice news on WUWT, unless of course you have objections? Oh, wait, you ALWAYS have objections. Being objectionable is what you do.
And by the way, when are you going to answer my question (posed three times now but unanswered) asking if you are really just notorious banned troll “Neven” repackaged? – Anthony
Arctic Death Spiral 2010: Navy’s oceanographer tells Congress, “the volume of ice as of last September has never been lower…in the last several thousand years”
Romm blasts WUWT….again.
Disinformers get it very wrong and Inaccuweather’s Bastardi absurdly asserts sea ice trend is “leveling off and will turn the other way”
http://climateprogress.org/2010/12/06/arctic-death-spiral-2010-navys-oceanographer-volume-of-ice-never-been-lower/
Re LazyTeenager says:
December 5, 2010 at 7:51 pm
Anonymous commenter guy says:
December 5, 2010 at 6:59 pm
Here’s one from the peanut gallery. The downtrend in Arctic sea ice extent is caused by soot from China’s coal burning.
————
Hi peanut here.
Let me make a wild guess.
You don’t know what the trend graph for Chinese partiiculate emissions looks like
OR
how much of those emissions ends up in the Arctic
OR
How much the abedo is affected and over what area
OR
How much of the melting, some or all, is attributable to black carbon
lazy teenager, your handle fits your snootty nosed kid comments, why are you asking when you KNOW all this? Learn to respect others and you may gain some for yourself.
OT (a little) I notice that the open water between Iceland and Greenland continues to narrow steadily. What are the chances the ice will actually close that gap and one could, if one so desired, walk from Iceland to Greenland? Also, when/if has such a closure occurred in the past? Just wondering.
ES … I live in Newfoundland and and very familiar with sediments in ice. The ice I saw off NE Greenland had fresh deposits on the top … it was washing off the sides of the large icebergs.
Mr. Watts:
Why should any importance be attributed to the estimate of temperature above latitude 80 degrees north made by the DMI model in assesing Arctic ice extent at this time of year since this area appears to have been ice covered at the end of October and the temperature appears to be below the freezing point of sea ice even when it is above the average?
According to the NSIDC report, local weather and higher temperatures in areas south of 80 degrees north caused the average ice extent in November 2010 to be lower than prior years.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2010/120610.html
P.S. There is no basis for why Günther Kirschbaum, whoever he is, would think that you would not cover the December NSIDC report when you have posted such information in the past. You are, of course, going to put your interpretation on the events they report.
This will be good for the next Sea Ice news on WUWT, unless of course you have objections?
On the contrary, I look forward to your informed view on the multi-year ice segment. Joe Romm has a very interesting graphic on top of his latest Arctic sea ice post.
REPLY: And once again you duck the “Neven” question. Actions speaking loudly. So until you answer, I’m going to assume you are “Neven”, trying to circumvent. – Anthony