NOAA press release below, gotta love the word “onslaught” added for dramatic effect. I’m sure Ryan Maue’s end season summary of hurricane ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for the 2010 will be forthcoming soon. – Anthony
Extremely Active Atlantic Hurricane Season was a ‘Gentle Giant’ for U.S.
NOAA’s Prediction for Active Season Realized; Slow Eastern Pacific Season Sets Record
November 29, 2010
Hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia (from left to right on Sept. 16) were part of the onslaught of Atlantic storms this season.
Download here (Credit: NOAA)
According to NOAA the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends tomorrow, was one of the busiest on record. In contrast, the eastern North Pacific season had the fewest storms on record since the satellite era began.
In the Atlantic Basin a total of 19 named storms formed – tied with 1887 and 1995 for third highest on record. Of those, 12 became hurricanes – tied with 1969 for second highest on record. Five of those reached major hurricane status of Category 3 or higher.
These totals are within the ranges predicted in NOAA’s seasonal outlooks issued on May 27 (14-23 named storms; 8-14 hurricanes; 3-7 major hurricanes) and August 5 (14-20 named storms; 8-12 hurricanes; 4-6 major hurricanes). An average Atlantic season produces 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Large-scale climate features strongly influenced this year’s hurricane activity, as they often do. This year, record warm Atlantic waters, combined with the favorable winds coming off Africa and weak wind shear aided by La Niña energized developing storms. The 2010 season continues the string of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.
But short-term weather patterns dictate where storms actually travel and in many cases this season, that was away from the United States. The jet stream’s position contributed to warm and dry conditions in the eastern U.S. and acted as a barrier that kept many storms over open water. Also, because many storms formed in the extreme eastern Atlantic, they re-curved back out to sea without threatening land.
“As NOAA forecasters predicted, the Atlantic hurricane season was one of the most active on record, though fortunately most storms avoided the U.S. For that reason, you could say the season was a gentle giant,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service.
Other parts of the Atlantic basin weren’t as fortunate. Hurricane Tomas brought heavy rain to earthquake-ravaged Haiti, and several storms, including Alex, battered eastern Mexico and Central America with heavy rain, mudslides and deadly flooding.
Though La Niña helped to enhance the Atlantic hurricane season, it also suppressed storms from forming and strengthening in the eastern North Pacific. Of that region’s seven named storms this year, three grew into hurricanes and two of those became major hurricanes. This is the fewest named storms (previous record low was eight in 1977) and the fewest hurricanes (previous record low was four in 1969, 1970, 1977 and 2007) on record since the satellite era began in the mid-1960s. An average eastern North Pacific season produces 15 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/usnoaagov.
h/t to Chris Horner
I did. All the way to Washington State.
clearscience says:
November 29, 2010 at 11:34 am
I guess it should be noted that although no hurricanes hit the US, hurricane igor laid quite a pounding on newfoundland, Canada causing about 100 million dollars in damage.
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Without disputing the “pounding”, I’ll suggest that Igor was a post-tropical storm at land-fall in NF, not a hurricane. Just so’s the science is clear.
Steve from Rockwood says:
November 29, 2010 at 6:31 pm
“Theo Goodwin makes an excellent point. And before satellite images showing off-shore storms, how did the USA count hurricanes anyway?”
Just to be clear we’ve had weather satellites taking pictures almost continually since 1960. A couple small gaps in coverage when a satellite failed prematurely and a replacement wasn’t sitting on the launch pad ready to go.
Indeed in 1974 one of several sophisticated (for the time) pieces of weather gear I was trained to repair in the military was a satellite facsimile receiver. I believe it was almost an antique by that time as the electronics were vacuum tubes. I can still hear in my mind the audio tone the satellite transmitted that drove the current in a wire which swept across chart roll paper which had embedded temperature sensitive chemicals that turned brownish-red when heated.
Before that ships at sea and aircraft were doing the monitoring but were more trying to avoid the storms than measure them. The record is considered fairly consistent back to about 1950.
The NOAA piece compares the activity this year to previous years:
“In the Atlantic Basin a total of 19 named storms formed – tied with 1887 and 1995 for third highest on record.”
This kind of comparison is a BIG no-no, however: nobody in their right mind who knows the storm data would ever compare named storm numbers back that far.
If you remove the Tiny Tims/Baby Whirls, this season doesn’t look so big after all, in terms of the number of storms. Those have risen rapidly in recent years from almost nothing in the past, and that trend is almost certainly an artifact of incomplete early records.
Landsea, C. W., G. A. Vecchi, L. Bengtsson, and T. R. Knutson, Impact of duration
thresholds on Atlantic Tropical cyclone counts, Journal of Climate, 23, 2508–2519,
2010.
Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, T. R. Knutson, and J. A. Smith, Is the Recorded Increase in Short Duration North Atlantic Tropical Storms Spurious? Geophysical Research Letters, submitted 2010
Numbers of storms means nothing. Accumulated energy (ACE) means everything.
Using the number of storms is like measuring rainfall by counting the number of days it rains (as opposed to measuring the amount of rain itself).
This is grade-school comprehension, NOAA.
Looks like, if Maue’s current figure of 169.688 holds up as the seasonal total, this year will come in 12th in N. Atlantic ACE over the last 61 years (1950-2010), but only 29th in ACE/storm (8.42). Igor alone accounted for over 1/4 the total N. Atlantic ACE this season.
The other basins (except the Indian Ocean) mostly look low, though. Rounding off:
North Atlantic – 170; normal 106
E. Pacific – 51; normal 132
W. North Pacific – 119; normal 310
N. Indian – 33; normal 21 (calculated)
S. Hemisphere (2009-10) – 196; normal 204
Total all basins – 569; normal 773
Sources: Dr. Maue’s page, and a copy of an August 8 2010 update of Dr. Maue’s page on this site.
Named storms don’t mean anything, they are name everything. ACE is what should be looked at. According to Accuweather the ACE for 2010 was the 13th highest since 1950. That’s nothing I’m going to panic about.
While the Atlantic was top 5, the Eastern Pacific was bottom.
http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/42058
Aha! Just as they predicted!
…er, no, actually they have said that global warming would bring FEWER hurricanes but of LARGER magnitude (thus, MORE damage).
‘course, if you predict basically everything and anything might occur, then anything that happens confirms your prediction. I’m sure somewhere someone at NOAA predicted a larger number of storms but with reduced effects….