Update and brief review below by Ryan Maue…
From Reuters Alert Net: Colder winters possible due to climate change-study
* Colder winters possible in northern regions
* Shrinking sea ice causes airstream anomalies
* Finding does not conflict with global warming
BERLIN, Nov 16 (Reuters) – Climate change could lead to colder winters in northern regions, according to a study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research on Tuesday.
Vladimir Petoukhov, lead author of the study, said a shrinking of sea ice in the eastern Arctic causes some regional warming of lower air levels and may lead to anomalies in atmospheric airstreams, triggering an overall cooling of the northern continents.
“These anomalies could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe and northern Asia,” he said. “Recent severe winters like last year’s or the one of 2005/06 do not conflict with the global warming picture but rather supplement it.”
h/t to WUWT readers e.c cowan and Michael P.
Ryan Maue Update: It took me some doing to find this study in the Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres. The study is fine as constructed, but why is this worthy of a press release?
This study employs a climate model to determine the sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation to sea-ice concentration. The ECHAM5 model is used with T42 spectral resolution (that is 2.8×2.8 degree longitude/latitude spacing !!!) and 19 vertical levels. This is about the model setup of NCEP’s operational weather forecasting models in the 1980s. Six “simulations” (or scenarios) were performed of 100 years duration with differing sea-ice concentration in the Barents-Kara (B-K) sector. Their results are therefore 100-year averages obtained from the simulations.
The conclusions are not conclusive at all but very equivocal in nature. This is contrary to the press release. Since European winter climate is strongly controlled by a host of climate modes such as ENSO, NAO, AO, PDO, etc., their study cannot include the non-linear interplay between the actors and their sea-ice concentration scenarios. This is a very idealized experiment with results that are very preliminary when it comes to relating to the true atmosphere. There is no analysis of the 2005/2006 winters to determine if indeed the sea-ice mechanism was responsible for the cooler winter.
The study’s conclusions with respect to future climate change are very speculative to say the least. This is the case with many of these types of climate scenario experiments. Step one is to find a phenomenon that goes against the AGW consensus: here it is a cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Step two is to construct an experiment which explains the phenomena in the context of AGW. Step three is to connect step 2 to step 1 and issue a press release containing facts not in evidence.
Well my consensus disagrees with their consensus so I guess its back to the drawing board eh?
…the guy on the right is Dr. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, boss of the PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, founded in 1992 and now has a staff of about 270 people. ). The other one is the leader of SPD (Social Democrates Party) In 2006 he was at the helm of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety.
http://www.bmu.de/files/mediathek/fotogalerien/archiv/image/pjpeg/waskosteteis01_dl.jpg
…and that’s the orignal press releas:
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/global-warming-could-cool-down-temperatures-in-winter
M4GW’s Newest Song – I’m a Denier
http://www.minnesotansforglobalwarming.com/m4gw/2010/11/m4gws-newest-song—im-a-denier.html
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
Cold European winter predicted, this time with core between Alps and Southern Russia.
“Vladimir Petoukhov, lead author of the study, said a shrinking of sea ice in the eastern Arctic causes some regional warming of lower air levels and may lead to anomalies in atmospheric airstreams, triggering an overall cooling of the northern continents.
“These anomalies could triple the probability of cold winter extremes in Europe and northern Asia,” he said. “Recent severe winters like last year’s or the one of 2005/06 do not conflict with the global warming picture but rather supplement it.”
I find AGW scientists are wonderfully clever people. For non-scientists like myself I’ve lived all my life thinking that warm is warm and cold is cold, but how wrong can you be. All I hope is that the climate doesn’t get much warmer as I don’t look forward to colder winters, or is it that the other way round and that colder winters will turn Sweden and Finland into the sun-loving paradises of northern Europe? I’m also amazed to learn that colder winters are actually melting the ice caps. Now there’s a revelation if ever there was one. Am I the only person in the world who has been under these mis-apprehensions all my life? going on blindly believing what I thought was a basic truth, only to have those beliefs shattered by these mind boggling revelations by such clever people with lot’s of letters after their names. Oh, hang on, have I got it wrong, I see Mr. Petoukhov, says warming of the atmosphere may lead to overall cooling, and “ these anomalies could triple the probability of cold winter extremes” now I am completely lost, will it or won’t it. I really need to know as these things can keep a simple person like me awake at night wondering what next to expect from these very clever AGW scientists with lots of letters after their names.
I allowed myself to cherry-pick (like the climate ‘scientists do, teeheehee!) from the press release the following sentence:
“Climate change could lead to colder winters” –
And omigawd – I so agree!
If the climate changes from a warm to a cooler period, we will indeed see colder winters, no?
Why are the taxpayers everywhere fleeced to pay for research which syas that no matter what, any change in the weather is due to climate change, never mind if it is colder!
Now let me see…If it is, it is. and if it isn’t, it is…. Hmmm
Why does modelling still get credited with being an ‘experiment’. When I read this, it was obviously a projection, an estimate derived from the behaviour of a model. The relationship between the model and the actual physical world that we all live in is tenuous to the point of being wildly preposterous.
Don’t tell these alarmists, but there is a rather large tear in their marble bag and the marbles are falling out, one after another.
Yep. My eyes are crossed, too guys ~ (which makes these comments of yours DOUBLY interesting!)
But……you can’t see my eyes right now…..’cause it’s nighttime in Australia and I’ve given up on those horrid mercury globes/lightbulbs ‘they’ WERE forcing me to use… So, now ~ it’s just the annoying glow of my little computer screen which at times is less than that of my mobile/cell phone…
Oh, heck…….I’m jus’ gonna keep singin’: ‘This little light of mine’ till Monckton and his compatriots shellack them all in Cancun… Then, Ian and I will begin making our own water from the beach across from the house, and they can get upset with us for doing it cheaper than that damned de-sal plant monstrosity “they’re” creating up in Adelaide…. An’ the hits jus’ keep on rollin’… Anyone remember Wicksie 560??? (my old radio station from the early 70’s….I digress happily away…singin’ my little song…
Cynthia Lauren (who’s always preferred oil lamps anyway…humm hmmm hmmm)
League of thick
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/11/league-of-thick.html
RR Kampen says:
November 17, 2010 at 12:29 am
“I don’t think so. First, the ever thinner Arctic ice and its ever later freezing in somewhat withholds the forming of stationary cold continental airmasses at least in November and December. Second, northern hemisphere winters are clearly observed to become warmer, with e.g. DJF 2009-2010 among the very warmest”.
Yes van Kampen, the heat is unbearable:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp5.html
How is this possible?
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/11/16/julienne-stroeve-arctic-melt-since-1978-cannot-be-easily-explained-away-by-natural-variability/
“This study employs a climate model to determine…”
Didn’t read any further.
In fact there have been several other so-called “studies” that have “shown” that cold weather is caused by global warming, according to the “experts”.
See for example John Brignell’s List of things caused by global warming.
“The recent cold wave sweeping across Mumbai and other parts of India could be attributed to global warming, experts said on Tuesday here at an environmental conference. ”
“AUSTRALIA is in the grip of a nationwide cold snap – and paradoxically, it could be another result of global warming.”
“It’s cold out there – blame global warming.
Weather experts say global warming not only warms the world, it also brings colder extreme weather. “
This is pure Orwellian newspeak.
That´s why the terms Climate Change and Climate Disruptions are beeing used. Any event can be explained to fit as a “change” or “disruption”.
Next in line: New broader definitions on mental illnesses – beware!
Remember Richard Feynman’s definitions of what constitute pseudoscience. One of the main ones was inability to be proven wrong, that is no matter what phenomena are observed, they all mean the hypothesis is true. Temps go up, proof of AGW, temps go down, proof of AGW, more storms, proof, fewer storms, proof!
Model on top of assumption underlain by scenarios based on inference and speculation with no discussion about uncertainty to make a counter-intuitive explanation of real world observation on a subject that less and less people give a crap about.
Well done.
Viv Evans says:
November 17, 2010 at 3:12 am
“Why are the taxpayers everywhere fleeced to pay for research which says that no matter what, any change in the weather is due to climate change, never mind if it is colder!”
Viv – we ALL must take responsibility to complain to our elected representatives about the WASTE that occurs yearly in the government science establishment. In the U.S. we are broke, and private sector taxation can no longer afford to pay for dubious scientific research.
To be honest, I think these government-run climate science groups should find a private benefactor like Greenpeace, the Sierra Club, or George Soros to fund their “work”…I’d be in favor of that. They could even have multiple “press releases,” their own cable channel (“Climate News Network”), their own science magazine (“Scientific Hysteria”). I couldn’t think of a better use of George Soros’ money!!
Press Relase – CRU East Anglia – Everything is consistent with Global Warming
The CRU at East Anglia has released a new study which proves conclusively that Global Warming caused Climate Change, which in turn caused Climate Disruption, which in turn is the cause of everything else. Based on previous research by the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster linking global warming with the decrease in the number of pirates over the last few hundred years, and new research showing that the current flat trend in global temperatures correlates with a recent resurgence of piracy, especially in the waters off of Somalia, Phil Jones et al, have submitted a new research paper to the Journal of Unbelievably New Claptrap (JUNC) that proves everything is caused by Global Warming.
“It was really very simple in the end,” said Jones. “Once we went over the Pastafarian research, which was very robust, we realized anything and everything with even the barest correlation to global temperatures could in fact be linked via other correlations to any and every other trend in the universe.” Indeed, the new paper which is currently under review at JUNC has linked Global Warming with trends in the stock market, the orbit of Mars and Jupiter, whale migrations, and turtle droppings. The algorithm used to draw these conclusions has been called “ground breaking” and “robust” by many of Jones’ colleagues. Said Professor Michael Mann of The Earth System Science Center at Penn State, a coauthor of the paper: “How they have come up with these links is amazing, the cross disciplinary work has been very heartening.” Responding to criticisms from statisticians and engineers that such work is suspect, Mann replied, “Nonsense, they’re obviously being paid millions by ExxonMobile. The work I have done with the zoological community alone in order to get the requisite number of monkeys into one room to come up with the equations is proof enough of the robustness of the work.”
Gavin Schmidt of NASA agreed. “The critics of this paper are obviously being paid off by Big Oil, we know this because they drive cars and have to buy gas occasionally.” Schmidt, a contributor to the space based portion of the paper that found correlations with global warming and the movements of a blueberry muffin launched into orbit last year, declined further comment. When asked about their refusal of requests to release the algorithm in question in order to review the paper, Jones declined saying, “How or why anyone would want to check this kind of work is beyond me, the conclusions are so staggeringly awesome that they don’t need to be reviewed.” The editors and peer reviewers at JUNC agreed. Said editor Alvin Hicks: “We don’t need to check this kind of work too carefully, and since I’d like to keep my job and would lose it if I dared question anything these guys put out, I’m confident in declaring it sound and worthy of publication.” Al Gore also hailed the paper as a milestone, writing in a press release, “All questions and skepticism should be ended at this point, the proof is in.” Gore declined to comment, aids saying he was too busy selling carbon offsets to himself.
The paper came at a fortuitous time for alarmists, who have been taking a bit of a beating lately due to the Climategate emails and the tendency of the IPCC to cite Leisure magazine and other sources in their reports on the current state of the science of global climate disruption. Jones concluded his remarks with this reporter, “I think we’ve finally got the name right so no one can question cause and effect via that route, now we have the science to back the name up and it’s really beyond criticism or question now that Global Warming is the cause of everything.” When asked about the convenience of having a theory that can’t under any circumstances ever be falsified, Jones shrugged. “Why would I want to falsify it? It’s bringing in tons of dough. The only people who would want to falsify it are Big Oil and their stooges.”
A passerby had been listening to Jones and I speak as Jones fished in the fountain, and asked, “Isn’t it a little paranoid and contradictory to posit this grand conspiracy by Big Oil and then claim their grand plan is to covertly fund a few blogs run by retired statisticians and weathermen?” Jones quickly jumped on the man and proceeded to try and strangle him with a spaghetti strand, and was subsequently arrested for assault with a deadly noodle. On follow-up in the court Jones blamed Global Warming for his behavior, and was let off with a suspended sentence. Claims that Michael Mann, Kevin Trenberth, and others put pressure on the local government to impeach the judge and that Greenpeace activists harassed the judge by rummaging through his trash and egging his house unless the trial came to ‘the right decision’ were dismissed out of hand.
WAR IS PEACE, FREEDOM IS SLAVERY, and IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH. …
…And cold winters are global warming. Er, um, Climate Change. Climate
disruption, maybe?
A quick note. I searched online for documentation of the ECHAM5 model, and found this wonderful document:
ECHAM5 Documentation
Very nice. Kudos to them.
Compare this with the laughably incomplete and unsatisfactory GISS Model E “documentation” here….
Oh, you lot really are too stoopid for words.
They will dream up anything – ANYTHING – provided it has the phrase ‘global warming’ in the headline. I can think of a couple:
‘William and Kate will take account of GLOBAL WARMING for when they plan their wedding ..’
‘The current woes of the euro are due to GLOBAL WARMING, a report says..’
See..? Its easy..!
The problem here of course lies in the Press Release. Who writes that stuff?
I doubt that the researchers take care of this – rather some administrative official (budding science journalist?) bought into the CAGW agenda.
Its insidious.
I expect to see a press release sometime soon that says:
“Climate Scientists at the University of Yoo-hoo announced today that their experiences inside the virtual World of Warcraft have convinced them that the threat of continuing, inter Kingdom, Global-Warming-Cooling-Stability remains a threat demanding the highest level of non-virtual funding.”
It is proof that politicians need support for climate change legislation. This may not be true but it seems that government supplies the grants and scientists produce the desired results for government.
PaulM posts a quote: “AUSTRALIA is in the grip of a nationwide cold snap – and paradoxically, it could be another result of global warming.”
Bah… Whenever I hear the word “paradoxically” I always power up my bull s&*^ detector. The real world does not contradict itself, and “paradox” is just another way of saying “Our accepted explanation does not seem to make sense.”