Dr. Roy Spencer has an essay below on sea surface temperatures starting to bottom out, but in addition to that, the UAH daily lower troposphere plot shows a sharp drop also.
As this graph of UAH TLT from D Kelly O’Day’s site shows, The current global anomaly is 0.044C – or very nearly zero. That’s a big drop from last month when we ended up at 0.60C.
Note the black dot, the value on 10-26-10. Click to enlarge the image.
Now compare that to Dr. Spencer’s Sea Surface temperature plot below.
Bottom Falling Out of Global Ocean Surface Temperatures?
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Having just returned from another New Orleans meeting – this time, a NASA A-Train satellite constellation symposium — I thought I would check the latest sea surface temperatures from our AMSR-E instrument.
The following image shows data updated through yesterday (October 27). Needless to say, there is no end in sight to the cooling.
(Click on image for the full-size version).
Since these SST measurements are mostly unaffected by cloud cover like the traditional infrared measurements are, I consider this to be the most accurate high-time resolution SST record available…albeit only since mid-2002, when the Aqua satellite was launched.
I won’t make any predictions about whether SSTs will go as low as the 2007-08 La Nina event. I’ll leave that to others.
Not quite.
More energy departing the stratosphere upwards than was entering the stratosphere from below or being generated within the stratosphere by the extra uv acting on ozone there whilst the sun was more active.
After all, both the mesosphere and the stratosphere did cool when the sun was more active and the reverse is now occurring with a less active sun.
How else would you explain it ?
Whoops, you were referring to the troposphere not the stratosphere.
Less energy reaches the troposphere from above when the sun is less active because the cloud bands move equatorward and ‘close the blinds’.
More energy reaches the troposphere from above when the sun is more active because the cloud bands move poleward and ‘open the blinds’.
Because most of the incoming energy goes into the oceans the rate at which it comes back into the troposphere from below is down to the oceans.
So the temperature of the troposphere is indeed dictated primarily by how much energy is released by the oceans and not by direct insolation on land surfaces.
This article is bullsh … instead of changing your wasteful lifestyle you USA-folks keep on finding a proof that back is white. It’s a shame when journalists, who are expected to be more clever than the mass, try to amplify the believe that we have no global warming.
I want to emphasize that there is a link between low solar activity and increased volcanic activity, and that is one of the reasons why temp. drop when the sun exhibits low solar activity.
Just go back in time and one will see a good correlation,infact 85% of all major volcanic eruptions, since 1600 have occurred during solar minimum periods.Is this by chance? You decide.
Let’s talk about the sun a little. When the sun is in a prolonged minmum state the upper atm. cools,(polar vortex will expand)pushing the jet equatorward.
I think Steve Wilde ,and I are close ,except that he thinks above 45km the stratosphere will warm and he thinks the cooling of the upper troposphere,and lower most stratosphere is a result of reduced energy flux from below rather then from above,when in reality it could be a combination of the two.
Steve Wilde, is saying above 45km ,the stratosphere warms but the reality is the stratosphere starts much lower in altitude then that,and Haig’s study also showed below 45km,ozone amounts were much less during a quieter sun(most ozone found below 45km)which would tend to substanciate that less UV light coming from the sun when it is quiet,results in ozone destruction below 45km,and thus cooling the stratosphere below 45km.
End result ,less energy coming DOWN to the upper troposphere,thus cooling it from above.
A couple of misconceptions there, Salvatore.
From about 45Km upwards (usually said to be 50Km but I suspect it rises and falls with levels of solar activity) it is the mesosphere rather than the stratosphere and the temperature profile of that layer is different because it cools with height whereas the stratosphere warms with height.
I accept the conventional view that the warming with height in the stratosphere is indeed induced by uv hitting ozone molecules.
However on the basis of the reversed sign effect observed by Haigh in the levels above 45Km I suggest that above that level the primary cause of cooling up to the mesopause is solar protons destroying ozone above that height.
When the sun is quiet the stratosphere should cool from less ozone reactions and Haigh did see reduced ozone as expected. However above 45Km in the mesosphere she saw increased ozone (the reversed sign) which implies warming there contrary to expectations.
So the next question is why is the stratosphere no longer cooling as it did when the sun was more active ? It should be cooling because of the reducing ozone below 45Km but it is no longer cooling.
The only explanation I can think of is that the temperature trend of the mesosphere controls the temperature trend of the stratosphere regardless of the ozone trend in the stratosphere and thereby reverses the sign from that expected by standard climatology.
That then affects the height of the tropopause and that affects the pressure distribution in the troposphere.
A cooling stratosphere at a time of active sun raises the height of the tropopause and pulls the jets poleward.
A warming stratosphere at a time of quiet sun lowers the height of the tropopause and pushes the jets equatorward.
Thus is the reversed sign solar effect made consistent with observations whereas under standard assumptions the observations seem to be an anomaly that needs human intervention for its resolution via the proposed energy budget effects of human CO2 and CFCs.
If Haigh’s data is confirmed the CO2 and CFC effects are no longer required to explain observations.
I say this. More time is going to have to go by ,with more temperature data to see what the story is. Not enough time, not large enough temperature changes have taken place. The study you referred to said, since 1996 the stratosphere has had a slight warming. Slight.
I say more time,more data is going to be needed before one can draw any substancial conclusions.
One has to be cautious when trying to draw this type of conclusion,also Steve the lower most stratosphere has to cool when the sun is quiet in order to maintain the stronger polar vortex as a result of the cooling of the upper troposhere when the sun is quiet. If not the polar vortex would not have much depth.
As to levels above the lower most stratosphere, temperature change in that area could be different, but to form a stronger polar vortex some cooling is going to have to extend to at least the lowest levels of the stratosphere in my opinion.
In closing more data is needed.
Steve, I can’t post on the climate realist site, and I like corresponding with you, because you have this thought out as well as anyone,even though we have a SLIGHTLY different take maybe on the stratosphere,but largely we agree.
I want to be able to convey to you any new ideas I might come up with, by the same token I want to know your latest thinking, and what you see going forward.
I am going to give you my email. Here it is. salmbswx@aol.com
Take Care, and keep doing what you are doing ,because it is quite good work.
” the lower most stratosphere has to cool when the sun is quiet in order to maintain the stronger polar vortex as a result of the cooling of the upper troposhere when the sun is quiet. If not the polar vortex would not have much depth.”
Not so. The tropopause has to fall so that the polar vortex gets shallower and spreads out. That requires the warmer stratosphere exactly as per observations.
If the polar vortex is to pull back towards the poles then the tropopause has to rise and the vortex becomes deeper instead. That requires a cooling stratosphere exactly as per observations.
The implications of reversing the sign of the solar effect need some thinking through. I’m sure I’ve got it right but I agree, more data is needed.
I just wanted to get it in early because if the new data goes my way then……….
I think you may be correct with the mesosphere. I think infact the higher one goes up in the atm. the more influence the solar protons have in comparisome to UV light ,while the opposite might hold true the lower one goes in the atmosphere.
That I think makes sense.
I want to see what the temperatures show for the stratosphere and mesophere from 2007 on providing the sun remains quiet.
Two items. Do you think there is a correlation between increased volcanic activity and low sunspot activity? Past history supports this.
Next item ,I feel the amount of ozone concentrations is paramount to temperature values at any level in the atmosphere.
That is a very good point, you just made. Very good point. That point being if the polar vortex has less depth it will tend to spread out which is associated with a negative AO,NAO. Conversely if the polar vortex has greater depth it will intensify tending to make the AO,NAO more positive.
Good points. This is why I like this.
Let’s look at this . In the end it is the overall heights that matter. Anotherwords if you have a more positive AO,NAO but all the relative heights are lower then prior, cooling of the globe would still take place, although I agree that it seems to be the polar vortex spreading out ,not necessarily stronger that is associated with the low sun activity,cooling, and the jet being pushed equatorward.
That was a great point you made.
What about this, and this is my thought. What if the stratosphere cools/upper troposphere cools when the sun is quiet, but the cooling over lower latitudes in comparisome to the poles is greater. That would result in the overall heights falling ,and at the same time a weaker more spread out polar vortex, because the height falls were greater at lower latititudes where the pressures are higher to begin with then at the poles in the upper trop/lower stratosphere.. How about that as a possible explanation. That I came up with quite a ways back.
Salvatore,
I’ve emailed you for future communications. As regards your final questions:
i) I’m expecting post 2007 patterns in the atmosphere to continue the 2004 / 2007 trends noted by Haigh provided the sun stays quiet enough.
ii) It is said that solar activity is in some way linked to solar system (even galactic) gravitational effects. I’ve no idea either way but if so thenn it would follow that the same influences could affect the Earth’s interior at the same time. So, plausible but not proven.
iii) Agreed. Ozone reactions govern the temperature profile directly or indirectly right up to the mesopause at least. The surprise is that it is two competing ozone processes which cause the switch in temperature gradient between stratosphere and mesosphere. Previously it was thought that the uv effect just faded away at the stratopause but it turns out that that is just half the story if Haigh’s data is confirmed.
” Anotherwords if you have a more positive AO,NAO but all the relative heights are lower then prior, cooling of the globe would still take place,”
Nearly there 🙂
POSITIVE AO means smaller but deeper polar vortex with a HIGHER tropopause from stratospheric cooling when the sun is MORE active.
Jets shift poleward reducing cloudiness and reducing albedo letting more energy into the oceans = system GAINING energy DESPITE and even BECAUSE OF the cooler stratosphere and mesosphere.
Thus the only way to get the correct observed sign for the temperature trend in the troposphere (warming) at a time of active sun is to REVERSE the sign for both mesosphere and stratosphere which causes the observed shift in the jets and allows MORE energy into the oceans and thence the troposphere.
Voila. All observations accounted for and basic physical principles complied with.
As I was driving through Wallowa Canyon, the river was losing heat all over the place and slush was starting to build. Water (and my morning coffee) often lose heat when the conditions are right. They also mix their layers occasionally, which results in colder water temperatures as well.
oops. I might have posted my comment too late. Was cleaning house whilst commenting.