Global air and sea temperatures starting to drop rapidly

Dr. Roy Spencer has an essay below on sea surface temperatures starting to bottom out, but in addition to that, the UAH daily lower troposphere plot shows a sharp drop also.

As this graph of UAH TLT from D Kelly O’Day’s site shows, The current global anomaly is 0.044C – or very nearly zero. That’s a big drop from last month when we ended up at 0.60C.

Note the black dot, the value  on 10-26-10. Click to enlarge the image.

Now compare that to Dr. Spencer’s Sea Surface temperature plot below.

Bottom Falling Out of Global Ocean Surface Temperatures?

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Having just returned from another New Orleans meeting – this time, a NASA A-Train satellite constellation symposium — I thought I would check the latest sea surface temperatures from our AMSR-E instrument.

The following image shows data updated through yesterday (October 27). Needless to say, there is no end in sight to the cooling.

(Click on image for the full-size version).

Since these SST measurements are mostly unaffected by cloud cover like the traditional infrared measurements are, I consider this to be the most accurate high-time resolution SST record available…albeit only since mid-2002, when the Aqua satellite was launched.

I won’t make any predictions about whether SSTs will go as low as the 2007-08 La Nina event. I’ll leave that to others.

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The grand old duke of penn, he had 10,000 menn, he marched them up to the top of the hill, and he ….

LabMunkey

It’s worse than we thought.. (is there a prize for saying that first in each thread??)
I’m going to follow this with great interest, it would seem internal forcings are not as irrelevant as the IPCC et al would have use believe.

I’ll predict not just colder surface temps than 2007-08, but a long term cooling trend for all the world’s oceans. Surface temps bounce all over, but we just went through a pretty substantial heat-dump from the oceans to the atmosphere with this year’s El Nino, and with the 80 yr grand maximum of solar activity ending in 2003, the very high statistical correlation between solar-magnetic activity and global temperature (.5 to .8 in numerous studies) says it is going to get cold. Add the very high levels of snow cover for the last two winters, reflecting away an above-recent-average amount of the sun’s energy, and the planet’s heat sink (the oceans) have to cool.
When that cooling will show up on surface is highly variable, but the cooling oceans creates a strong expectation of cooling surface temps. It’s a prediction with a high degree of short run uncertainty, but a prediction nevertheless. For the longer run, as long as the sun stays relatively quiet, cooling will follow, unless the laws of physics have somehow changed. We don’t know exactly HOW solar magnetic activity drives global temperature, but we know that it does, and that whatever the mechanism, it will still be operative, because, whatever the physical processes at work, they do NOT just change.
Can CO2 override these mechanisms, whatever they are? No, because the warming power attributed to CO2 comes from failing to account the historic warming power of solar magnetic activity. When that temperature influence is accounted, the temperature influence attributable to CO2 falls equivalently, and becomes negligible. We are soon going to wish CO2 had a powerful warming influence–an easy way to save of cooling (which unlike warming is actually dangerous)–but unfortunately, we are not that lucky.

tokyoboy

Some people may strongly wish to hide the decline?

Spector

It is rather curious to see these temperatures falling when the Arctic sea-ice was also falling to a record low extent in 2007. It would appear that these temperatures could be a response to the ocean having been forced to melt a record amount of ice mechanically dislodged from the Arctic region…

Lee

Oh Dear, i think 2011 is gonna be a miserable and cold one for all. I hope it doesn’t go on any longer, and get any colder, than that. For all the GW terror stories, i’d much rather live on a warm planet than a cold one……..

I have to laugh, but “starting to drop rapidly” seems as presumptive of the future as all the AGW claims. Wouldn’t “continuing to drop rapidly” be better?

Rhys Jaggar

The only conclusion I would draw from Dr Spencer’s graph is that ‘oscillations of SST around the mean amplified since 2007’.

john edmondson

If it gets colder, that’s weather and not climate?
It still the hottest year ever in la-la Al Gore world.

James Bull

You will just be accused of cherry picking and only looking at short term data (that there is no data from that source prior to that date is NOT relevant)
I find this very interesting.

I was wondering when the air temp would final catch up with the sea…and then just a few days ago I notice what seemed to be a turn around.
Do you northern folks know what an amazing La Nina (IOD) winter and spring we have been having down south?…the desert awash, long dried up rivers gushing forth, dry land farmers now worried about too much moisture for harvest, all very exciting

Jason Joice

Oh no!! It’s worse than we thought.

Thankyou Anthony – I’ve just had a profound realisation. I’ve been wondering for a while why there is such a distinction between the Judeo-Christian god which is so predictable and “good”, and the Greek/Roman/Norse style gods who “just play with men as their playthings”.
Looking at the temperature graph, it really could seem that there is some “weather god” who purposefully leads people on … creates a trend that leads people to think they know what is going to happen, and then the “weather god” just dashes their hopes. We saw this in the 1960-70s cooling trend, we then saw it in the 1970-2000 warming trend and on a smaller scale (weather is fractal!!) we see it in the 2008-10 warming trend and now the “weather god” seems to want to play with those who are vain enough to think they can predict him/her and it’s all change again. The point I was thinking is: right now the warmists have had their hopes dashed, but in time we will see another alarming warming spell to dash our hopes after which it’ll be the warmists, then us etc. etc.
Of course there is a perfectly rational explanation for the global temperature: it is 1/f type noise, so that we see little trends on top of even bigger longer term random up/down trends, on top of even bigger even longer term random up/down trends. Waves on waves on waves like the proverbial flees, with flees with even smaller flees.
The result is that the randomness in the weather/climate is orders of magnitude larger than you would expect from a simple casual glance/short term study. The longer you look, the bigger the randomness!!! So that, however long you watch the climate, there will always be a bigger random trend that comes along bigger than you would expect from the period of analysis (unless you take account of the 1/f nature of the noise)
But imagine how this was for the ancients … they think they have worked out when to plant and harvest, and just as they believe they have “understood the mood of the weather god” … hey presto along comes a change. So they readjust, they think they have understood the extent of variety in the weather and then … hey presto, along comes an even greater change that is far outside their perception of “normal variation”. That is just the nature of 1/f noise, but it sure must have look to the ancients as if their were some “hand of god” making the changes.
Now, it may be just coincidental, but the move from “weather god” (1/f) type religion to Christian (white noise) happened during the Roman Warm Period (150BC-270AD), a period when the weather gods would have been much less important because of the absence of bad weather? Instead of an indeterminate moody set of gods, we see a replacement with a benign deterministic god; a god that doesn’t play with humans, but an adult god which works by the bargain — you be “good” and I’ll be “good”.
This is the basis of most modern western thinking: that things have a cause, “god” acts for a purpose likewise warming must be “caused” by something. This would be an alien concept if we lived with the old god religions where a “warm spell” was just part of the inexplicable moods of the gods. Obviously without this concept of “determinism” we’d never have got most of modern scientific thinking, but even in some areas like quantum physics, we are seeing the revival of “you can’t know what’s happening …. it’s up to the gods/chance”.
Likewise the idea that it “must be man-made” is entirely Judeo-Christian. God punishes the bad and rewards the good, that is the basis of Judeo Christian philosophy, so our culture expects a deterministic relationship between mankind and “good and bad” things. Define warming as “bad” and inevitably people will try to link this as being morally determined by “bad behaviour” on the part of mankind. It’s just the way we are brought up: bad things are caused by bad people as a punishment for being bad.
This is unlike the older religions where the gods didn’t care two hoots for men, they just did as they pleased. It was much more a one way concept Gods => cause things to happen to men. Bad things … the gods are being moody. Men seldom caused the gods to do things! So in the older religions, there is not the moral determinism and if something “bad” happens, it is not necessarily a result of men being “bad”.
And the insight? That the type of religion may be rationally determined by the type of technical noise that has most impact in the environment … or perhaps a period of climate uncertainty will see a revival of the old gods!

Christopher Hanley
Frank

What will that do with “the warmest year ever”?

Cirrius Man

If this currend downward trend continues, Punxsutawney Phil will be casting a very big shadow on Feb. 2. 2011 !
Wth the La Nina is still running strong combined with the fact that there is always a few months delay for a shift in the SOI show to up in the SST, we can expect the cooling to continue for at least 5-6 months.
I’m sure Phil would predict a 40 day smoothed value of -0.3 !

Keep in mind that Roy Spencer does not include SST data north of 60N or south of 60S in his global SST anomaly graphs, avoiding the need to adjust for sea ice. But for most of us the difference is insignificant:
http://i56.tinypic.com/2yknzue.jpg
And for those interested, here’s a link to the mid-month SST anomaly update:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/10/mid-october-2010-sst-anomaly-update.html

Alan the Brit

I am trying to buy large stocks of thermal underwear to sell-on at much inflated prices later this year! Brrrrr!

Very interesting!
It correlates very nicely to the variance of the rate of sea level rise that is happening in the last years! But what amazes me is that the rate of rise goes up before the AMSR-E temperatures go up…
This might also explain the recent trend in the decline of the rate of sea level rise, as measured by the University of Colorado:
http://ecotretas.blogspot.com/2010/10/going-down.html
Ecotretas

Moebius

I used the above graphs for this short article, “UN FCCC meeting in Cancun: where’s global warming?”, http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2010/10/un-fccc-meeting-in-cancun-wheres-global.html

Wow, 0.35C drop in just six months. That’s half of all the warming we have experienced since 1850. This has to start reflecting in the overall temp record by now. I can’t find the link to it, but I’ve seen speculation that we may have a two year La Nina this time round. Brrr.

Golf Charley

Why haven’t these figures been homogenised to show a warming trend?
This is a clear case of negligence by the Hockey Team, not an indication of falling temperatures.
These figures cannot be correct, because I have yet to hear them repeated on a BBC news bulletin, where the news is always hot hot hot.

Sam the Skeptic

I’m not sure this is the place for a philosophical discussion but very briefly I must disagree with Mike Haseler about the “Judaeo-Christian” God and His involvement in climate change (and I assume Mike also means most of the other scares that have bedevilled us over the years).
As a Christian I do not subscribe to the idea the God micro-manages the universe, at least not in the sense that appears to be implied here. In fact I am more inclined to the view expressed by Chesterton that “when man stops believing in God, he doesn’t believe in nothing he believes in anything”.
To an extent it is a belief in God and His creation that drives my skepticism and my view that the earth was made for man not man for the earth, a negation of the view of the eco-loons who see humanity as a blight on the planet which has got to be not just “un”-religious but “anti”-religious.

Patrick Davis

“Lee says:
October 29, 2010 at 12:46 am”
Well in Australia, the October/November cutover brings a sign of summer, ie, warm. It’s not happening this year. It’s COLD!

Hans Henrik Hansen

Next headline?:
“Arctic Sea Ice Extent dropping below 2007 line!”, see:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/

MattN

Channel 5 is also dropping like a rock. October is going to be much closer to “normal” than previous months. The 1998 record is all but safe…

Jimmy Haigh

paulhan says:
October 29, 2010 at 2:37 am
Wow, 0.35C drop in just six months. That’s half of all the warming we have experienced since 1850.
Make that “…half of all the homogenised warming we have experienced since 1850″.

Cassandra King

The BBC are still wailing and gnashing their teeth about warming, barely a day goes by without some mumbo jumbo SEJ inspired nonsense about melting ice/rising temperatures/sea levels etc.
Nail meet coffin, coffin meet nail? I can see the BBC being the very last body to give up the global warming charade, mind you the BBC has bet the farm on AGW allied eco/ethical investments for their pension plan…oooops.

William

The back peddling begins. How long will it take before the “New Ice Age headlines?”
A number of the AWG blogs have recently started to including a few comments about
planetary cooling and about cycle 24, that is a 180 degree turn around from standard the comment the “the scientific debate and discussion is over”.
The fall 2009 annual AGU meeting had a special session to discuss the abrupt changes that are occurring for solar cycle 24.
This is a link to Livingston and Penn’s second paper that discusses their finding that the magnetic field strength of each new sunspot formed on the sun is linearly decreasing as compared to previously produced sunspots.
http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009EO300001.pdf
http://solarb.msfc.nasa.gov/
“According to our measurements, sunspots seem to form only if the magnetic field is stronger than about 1500 gauss,” says Livingston. “If the current trend continues, we’ll hit that threshold in the near future, and solar magnetic fields would become too weak to form sunspots.” “This work has caused a sensation in the field of solar physics,” comments NASA sunspot expert David Hathaway, who is not directly involved in the research. “It’s controversial stuff.”
The following is a 2004 paper that predicts the sun is heading towards a Maunder minimum based on an analysis of the paleo record of solar activity.
The paleo data also shows the planet cools during the solar magnetic minimums.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004ApJ…605L..81B
“We have examined the long-term trends in the solar variability that can be deduced from some indirect data and from optical records. We analyzed the radiocarbon measurements for the last 4500 years, based on dendrochronology, the Schove series for the last 1700 years, based on auroral records, and the Hoyt-Schatten series of group sunspot numbers. Focusing on periodicities near one and two centuries, which most likely have a solar origin, we conclude that the present epoch is at the onset of an upcoming local minimum in the long-term solar variability. There are some clues that the next minimum will be less deep than the Maunder minimum, but ultimately the relative depth between these two minima will be indicative of the amplitude change of the quasi-two-century solar cycle.”

Michael D Smith

I’m not claiming that animals predict the weather, but you should see our raccoons this year. “Scruffy”, a scrawny female, looks absolutely huge with about 2-1/2″ of winter fur. Most of our other little friends that visit us are also very thick with fur. It’s comical how fluffy they are. Hmm, there’s a good name for one of the others.

Patrick Davis

How inconvenient! Who’d a thought that some, I don’t know, natural “cycle” is happening. Cold 1940’s, cold 1970’s, cold 2010’s, a different cycle? Who knows, it’s cold here in Sydney, Australia, we “usually” get warm at this time of year, it’s like a switch! But no! COLD!

Joe Lalonde

Those galeforce winds that went ripping by are heading northeast.
I wonder what those winds return trip will bring from the north?

JohnH

Frank says:
October 29, 2010 at 1:37 am
What will that do with “the warmest year ever”?
Fecked
As they say in Ireland (not allowed to swear so they have made some new ones up LOL)

Adolf Goreing (ze denier)

We are now experiencing AGC. Like some of the proxies, they´ve turned the data upsidedown. CO2 is actually cooling. We have to change our lifestyle now!

Bill Illis

It is not hard to see what temperatures are going to do now.
The Tropics temperatures lag behind the ENSO by 2 to 3 months and this period looks to be following that pattern exactly. Still at least 4 to 6 months of cooling to come yet.
http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/960/ensotropicssept10.png
The global temperatures will follow the tropics temperatures, sometimes lagging behind by another 2 to 4 weeks.
The La Nina has moderated a little in the past few weeks – one more incursion of warmer water from the north equatorial counter-current. The subsurface pattern says there is at least one more tranche of cooler water to come up from below yet. The cooler La Nina water has made it all the way across the Pacific to New Guinea now at 140E where the deep ocean ends and the subsurface ENSO circulation pattern begins. So, even if this La Nina peaks in a month or two and ends around May, it’s cool water will be back in another 18 months anyway – probably a small El Nino in between.

Frank says:
October 29, 2010 at 1:37 am
> What will that do with “the warmest year ever”?
It will make the people who hyped it very happy they hyped when they did. News of 2010 not setting a record won’t be covered, all that will be left in most people’s memories is that 2010 was on a record pace.

Huth

Sam the Skeptic says:
October 29, 2010 at 3:22 am
I thought sceptics didn’t believe anything without hard evidence. Isn’t that the definition? So please can you tell me what evidence there is that the earth was created for mankind? Give me hard evidence and I’ll believe it. I’m not aware that anyone has come up with any so far.
Yours in scepticism.

jmbnf

I just wanted to say that watching the ENSO/SST reference page on a near daily basis has been a tremendous learning experience. You try to predict magnitude, correlation, and lag times which really forces you to respect these processes.
I’ve been watching all this long enough to watch the SST and temperature drop of 2007-08, what a travesty, then Joe Rohm predict that the temperature would go back up and global warming would resume in 09 and he was right until this pesky subsequent La Nina takes away all his global warming again.
The truth has always been that there is has been no significant global warming or cooling of the ocean or land outside of the natural flux for the past dozen years and we’ve been able to watch most of that quite well.
I hope someone would put a timeline of all this together so we could watch the oceans lead the temperature and superimpose all the cooling/warming proclamations on top of that.
It would be impossible to refute the case that man might have added a couple of tenths of degrees to the temperature but very difficult to make the case that man is now the dominate forcing.

Bill in Vigo

Wonder what the new Volcanic eruptions in Russia will bring. It is getting more and more interesting.
Bill Derryberry

Richard M

Could the date 12/21/12 have a meaning after all? The beginning of the next ice age … Wouldn’t need to be very impressive either, only historically relevant.

Dave N

It’ll be worst the Day After Tomorrow…

RACookPE1978

Alec Rawls says:
October 29, 2010 at 12:34 am (Edit)

I’ll predict not just colder surface temps than 2007-08, but a long term cooling trend for all the world’s oceans.

Now – here’s the larger question: Are the current 2000 – 2010 years the peak of the Modern Warming Period – 400 years after the 1600’s LIA? Or do we have another 60 year short cycle yet to come before we slide back down into the Future Little Ice Age (FLIA) from 2060 into 2460?
We have “ramped up” in 1880-1890, 1935-1945, 2000 – 2010 – declining after each ramp slightly before temperatures increase again. In the early 1800’s, Cornelius Vanderbilt began making his transportation empire from boats he rowed across the Hudson between ice floes. When will we next see ice that far down?

Henry chance

How about some solar panels to heat water and generate electricity in the winter down at the poles? It is carbon free energy. Surely the Chinese whom Joe romm adores have technology for panels that operate in the shade and in the dark.

Tenuc

William says:
October 29, 2010 at 4:15 am
“The back peddling begins. How long will it take before the “New Ice Age headlines?”
The following is a 2004 paper that predicts the sun is heading towards a Maunder minimum based on an analysis of the paleo record of solar activity.
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004ApJ…605L..81B
“We have examined the long-term trends in the solar variability that can be deduced from some indirect data and from optical records. We analyzed the radiocarbon measurements for the last 4500 years, based on dendrochronology, the Schove series for the last 1700 years, based on auroral records, and the Hoyt-Schatten series of group sunspot numbers. Focusing on periodicities near one and two centuries, which most likely have a solar origin, we conclude that the present epoch is at the onset of an upcoming local minimum in the long-term solar variability. There are some clues that the next minimum will be less deep than the Maunder minimum, but ultimately the relative depth between these two minima will be indicative of the amplitude change of the quasi-two-century solar cycle.”

Spot on William! Our climate is driven by deterministic chaos, and is starting to swing towards the ‘cool Earth’ attractor as the energy from the sun starts to decline…
1410-1500 cold – Low Solar Activity(LSA?)-(Sporer minimum)
1510-1600 warm – High Solar Activity(HSA?)
1610-1700 cold – (LSA) (Maunder minimum)
1710-1800 warm – (HSA)
1810-1900 cold – (LSA) (Dalton minimum)
1910-2000 warm – (HSA)
2010-2100 (cold???) – (LSA???)
Of course other quasi-cycles will cause periods of warming within the cool halve of the cycle, and vice versa for the warm half of the cycle, but overall I think the next 90 years will be colder than the last.

The bottom of northern Hemisphere surface temperatures could fall out some more due to these events . Two new active volcano eruptions at KAMCHATKA and possibly others pending.This year there have been 12 different volcanoes erupting in this area . Fortunately none have been major to date . This may signal a change .
http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/avoreport.php?view=kaminfo
http://english.ruvr.ru/2010/10/24/28211707.html
http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=15631672&PageNum=0

Dave Springer

Global average temperature varies about the average on a month by month basis by 0.6C?
That’s as much as all the purported anthropogenic warming since teh beginning of the industrial revolution!

Dave Springer

OMG!
Look at how deep and fast the 2010 SST drop is!!!!
It’s the fastest EVER! Never in history has something like this happened. /sarc

Mark Wagner

Great news!
For I have just completed the addition of 10″ R30 insulation to my attic, 1″ R5 foam to all attic knee walls, foam sealing of all ceiling penetrations and air ducts, and foam sealing of all outlets on exterior walls.
I’m ready.

RACookPE1978

[This is a science blog, and all units should be in metric values. I’m sorry, but you will need to rip out that insulation and re-install it in appropriate thicknesses. 8<) Robt]

Stephen Wilde

Now that the sun is slowly coming out of its minimum the strength of the solar wind is increasing.
That produces more solar photons reaching the mesosphere which then cools a little from increased ozone destruction to increase the temperature gradient right down to the tropopause. The tropopause then rises a little and the jets move a little more poleward to produce a stronger upward energy flux from the surface.
Thus energy is leaving the Earth system a little faster than it was when the sun was quieter and at the same time the developing La Nina is denying energy to the air with the result that the air is cooling from two directions. That should at last put a solid end to the late 20th century tropospheric warming trend after the past ten years or so of mere cessation of warming.
As per my interpretation of the recent Haigh data an active sun cools the mesosphere and stratosphere for a stronger upward energy flux and a quiet sun does the opposite.
For a while the solar minimum held more energy within the system and combined with the recent El Nino to achieve the recent tropospheric warmth. Both processes have now reversed hence the more noticeable cooling that we are observing.