Dr. Roy Spencer has an essay below on sea surface temperatures starting to bottom out, but in addition to that, the UAH daily lower troposphere plot shows a sharp drop also.
As this graph of UAH TLT from D Kelly O’Day’s site shows, The current global anomaly is 0.044C – or very nearly zero. That’s a big drop from last month when we ended up at 0.60C.
Note the black dot, the value on 10-26-10. Click to enlarge the image.
Now compare that to Dr. Spencer’s Sea Surface temperature plot below.
Bottom Falling Out of Global Ocean Surface Temperatures?
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Having just returned from another New Orleans meeting – this time, a NASA A-Train satellite constellation symposium — I thought I would check the latest sea surface temperatures from our AMSR-E instrument.
The following image shows data updated through yesterday (October 27). Needless to say, there is no end in sight to the cooling.
(Click on image for the full-size version).
Since these SST measurements are mostly unaffected by cloud cover like the traditional infrared measurements are, I consider this to be the most accurate high-time resolution SST record available…albeit only since mid-2002, when the Aqua satellite was launched.
I won’t make any predictions about whether SSTs will go as low as the 2007-08 La Nina event. I’ll leave that to others.
@ur momisugly Mike Haseler “the idea that it “must be man-made” is entirely Judeo-Christian. God punishes the bad and rewards the good, that is the basis of Judeo Christian philosophy, so our culture expects a deterministic relationship between mankind and “good and bad” things.” I don’t know where you got your caricature of Christianity from but I don’t recognize it at all, and as Sam the Skeptic says, it might be a good idea not to sound off on this topic unless you really know what you are talking about.
The idea that ‘it must be man-made’ is pagan superstition or atheism, not Christian. If the earth was designed as a habitable place (as Christians believe), then obviously it will have been designed as a robust system. Anyone who designs safety-critical systems for a living (as I do) would not design something that falls over on the slightest perturbation, so why would the God of Christians and Jews? However, the view that this present world is just an amazing coincidence of factors can have no such confidence in design (whether or not that is misplaced in Christianity), although they can still have confidence on the basis that if the earth has survived so well until now then it must be a pretty robust system. But the idea that man is some kind of plague on the earth, as some environmentalists affirm, and that the world would be a better place without us is about as un-Christian as it is possible to be.
Granted that there are blessings and curses for obedience and disobedience (in Deuteronomy), but these were specifically addressed to the people in which God was in covenant with – they were covenant blessings and curses. As such, they cannot be claimed or applied to those who are not in covenant, i.e. mankind in general. A general destruction is believed (on the basis of Genesis) not to take place until the end of the world “Then the LORD said in His heart, “I will never again curse the ground for man’s sake, although the imagination of man’s heart is evil from his youth; nor will I again destroy every living thing as I have done. While the earth remains, seedtime and harvest, cold and heat, winter and summer, and day and night shall not cease.” And as Jesus declares, God “makes his sun to rise on the evil and on the good, and sends rain on the just and the unjust”. We also have the account in Luke 13 “There were present at that season some who told Him about the Galileans whose blood Pilate had mingled with their sacrifices. And Jesus answered and said to them, “Do you suppose that these Galileans were worse sinners than all other Galileans, because they suffered such things? I tell you, no; but unless you repent you will all likewise perish. Or those eighteen on whom the tower in Siloam fell and killed them, do you think that they were worse sinners than all other men who dwelt in Jerusalem? I tell you, no; but unless you repent you will all likewise perish.”
The last phrase makes it clear that, as far as Christianity is concerned, the focus of punishment of the wicked and the reward of the good is at the Last Judgment – and I hadn’t noticed that had arrived just yet. Many Christians suffer and many criminals prosper in this world – final judgment is deferred.
This seems to represent fairly what Christians believe (and as far as the Genesis account, what Jews believe), so please don’t misrepresent and offend with unfair caricatures.
Bill Illis says: “The La Nina has moderated a little in the past few weeks – one more incursion of warmer water from the north equatorial counter-current. The subsurface pattern says there is at least one more tranche of cooler water to come up from below yet.”
Thanks, Bill. Based on the timing, will it bottom out in January?
“”” Lucy Skywalker says:
October 29, 2010 at 12:46 am
I have to laugh, but “starting to drop rapidly” seems as presumptive of the future as all the AGW claims. Wouldn’t “continuing to drop rapidly” be better? “””
I’m with you Lucy; and I also think Anthony should change his comment about “sea surface Temperatures starting to bottom out”;- hey Davy Jones’ Locker to Anthony,- man; da bottom done dropped out, is more like it !
“”” Dave Springer says:
October 29, 2010 at 6:48 am
OMG!
Look at how deep and fast the 2010 SST drop is!!!!
It’s the fastest EVER! Never in history has something like this happened. /sarc “””
Well Dave there you go with that never in history crap ! Any fool can see that this is totally unprecedented !
If this trend continues, what will the media response to dropping temps be?
A) The world is getting drier and is predicted to get worse due to CO2!
B) La Nina is covering up the increase in temperatures cause by CO2 and the rebound is going to be much worse!
C) The consensus of science is that global cooling is caused by global warming or are you to stupid to understand that?
D) All of the above.
The correct answer is D. The lefty mind is not constrained by consistency of belief.
As Mini Bannister said to Henry Crun – “I don’t know where this wind is comming from, but I know where it’s going to!”
The pernicious and devastating “Gore Effect” it’s currently being set up by nature, as a just retaliation against global warmers/climate changers/climate disrupters/bio-diversifiers for having doubted of her power on driving the climate….and you know how women behave when mad. Just wait and enjoy it ! 🙂
Thank you ScientistForTruth. That was very well put.
So what’s with the Ice Page while we’ve been busy with other things. The superarctic Temperature has crashed to 20 below; after an upward surge; but suddenly the ice is heading for an “unprecedented low”.
What gives ?
And a question for Dr Roy; can you remind us again (briefly) how you get SSTs even with clouds; that suggests to me some Microwave sensing; but what the blazes is the actual Physical sensing cause again ?
Time permitting of course.
And what’s with this one way Suicide Mission to Mars ? Well I think NASA says its a Lifeboat or Noah’s Ark expedition.
Supposably; some Boeing Aircraft “Whistle blower” has leaked to the “Sky is falling Society”, that the solar system has suddenly run into a sea of molasses, and the earth has the brakes hard on, and is going to crash into the sun sooner than expected. So everybody at NASA is working on putting some folks on a one way trip to Mars; so that we can move out closer to Jupiter.
Not me; I’m going to stay here and get a free Viking Funeral !
You notice that Leif Svalgaard has been awfully quiet lately; so he must know all about this space flotsam that is getting in our way and shortening the year.
Didn’t the inconvenient models say that we were supposed to see 1C to 2C of warming by now due to runaway global warming? (insert dramatic music here)
Mike Haseler,
Your understanding of monotheism is somewhat erroneous. Judaeo-Christian monotheism goes back at least 4,000 years, it didn’t merely exist or flourish during the Roman Warm. It is not primarily a religion about bargaining and tit for tat. There is a lot more to objective morals, justice and forgiveness than that. Just FYI.
Don’t get too excited, the ENSO oscillation is superimposed on a rising baseline. This could be a monster La Nina, but will the temps drop as low as previous monster La Ninas? Very unlikely. But enjoy it while you can.
As it can de seen at:
ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/005/y2787e/
Open the file: y2787e08.pdf and see graphs on page 50th. (where temperatures are forecasted to the year 2100)
It has been demonstrated and practically applied in actual and, because of this, successful fishing campaigns all over the world, that the Length of the Day and its correlative the circulation index are related with temperature changes.
What, instead, everybody has seemingly chosen not to see at, or to forget because it is not listed in the “Consensus Index ” of the Holy Church of the Post Modern & Progressive Science, is the obvious: These two are related to gravity and magnetic fields, and other unnameable and sinful fields, which only a few bold, audacious, daring, fearless, high-spirited, WUWT regulars, have had the courage to point out.
Cirrius Man,
Never mind Punxsutawney Phil, Shubnacadie Sam up here in Nova Scotia will be frozen solid in his burrow!
Cirrius Man,
Never mind Punxsutawney Phil, Shubenacadie Sam up here in Nova Scotia will be frozen solid in his burrow!
it is very obvious that it is the Pacific Ocean that controls the world’s temperature.’s. That is where the thermostat is located. We have these enormous shifts in temperature called El Nino and La Nina which cycle on and off every few years as the cold or warm water moves to the surface. Then we know that there are larger trends, 30 yrs, called the Pacific Decadel Oscillation, which was positive from the late 1970’s to almost right now. That is what has caused this small overall rise in temperature the past 30 yrs. What is so hard to understand about that!
Owen says: “Don’t get too excited, the ENSO oscillation is superimposed on a rising baseline.”
The rising global temperature trend is caused by the global oceans integrating ENSO. One of the great myths in climate science is that the effects of ENSO can be removed from the global temperature record by scaling one of the ENSO indices (NINO3.4 SST anomalies or the CTI) and subtracting the scaled ENSO index data from global temperatures. I’m finishing up a video that illustrates the 30-year cycles in global SST anomalies and the trend are caused by the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events.
So much for the fond hopes of 2010 being “warmest year ever.”
@ScientistforTruth: Right you are! And perhaps it’s worth mentioning that basic Christianity is not a religion. What can you do to please God? Answer – nothing, although many religions have distorted that simple fact. But of more interest to those here may be that quote in the middle of your longest paragraph: “While the earth remains, seedtime and harvest, cold and heat, winter and summer, and day and night shall not cease.” Business as usual then – not much reassurance there surely? Unless they were all new concepts to the Flood survivors. What might life have been like on Gondwanaland, at the South Pole, before Earth’s axis mysteriously got tilted and when there was much more CO2 and water vapour in the atmosphere providing the whole Earth with growing conditions ideal enough to grow the billions of tonnes of vegetation that we now know as coal? Seedtime and harvest? Cold and heat? Winter and summer? No, uniform warmth, year round, everywhere. Night and day? Not at the pole of an upright axis. The main point is – extrapolating anything backwards very far just might be as fraught with uncertainty as the AGW prognostications of the future. The wheels are falling off the uniformitarian theory of geological history and the Darwinian religion just as the wheels are falling off AGW and Gaiaism. In fact, the parallels between the attacks on skeptics and the attacks on creatonists are striking.
Some qustions that the bright minds here may be able to answer – what is the collective weight of the mountain ranges and how much energy was needed to raise them to their current heights? And over what period of time? Going by the uniformitarian theory I get a picture of a car crash test but instead of being a slow-mo it’s time-lapse photography. Not enough energy there to even bend a continental plate let alone raise up Everest.
Recent history and tomorrow’s weather seem to me to be the reliability limits of what we can say we know with any degree of certainty.
TallDave says:
October 29, 2010 at 9:54 am
Don’t be so sure, GISS might still find a way to make it happen.
-Scott
Regarding Owen says:
October 29, 2010 at 8:55 am
“Don’t get too excited, the ENSO oscillation is superimposed on a rising baseline. This could be a monster La Nina, but will the temps drop as low as previous monster La Ninas? Very unlikely. But enjoy it while you can.”
Even if you ignore Bob Tisdale’s comment, which you should not, so what if the base line continues to rise. That base line is far lower then the last 30 years, the benefits of increased CO2 are KNOWN, not some computer models waving their arms at hummingbird speed, predicting disasters which DO NOT match the observations.
.BTW, it is not YET a monster La Nina, and temperatures are falling rapidly.
Alec Rawls says:
October 29, 2010 at 12:34 am
We don’t know exactly HOW solar magnetic activity drives global temperature, but we know that it does
No, we do not KNOW that it does to any significant degree. We expect [and some even find] a solar cycle variation of the order of 0.1C, but no more. More here: http://www.leif.org/research/Does%20The%20Sun%20Vary%20Enough.pdf
I just created a trend graph in Excel and if the trend of the last 30 days is projected until 2020 we will be -169F. We have to start pumping CO2 into the atmousphere at a much greater pace so we will only be at -168.3F.
Hello Leif, haven’t heard from you for a while.
What do you make of the data from Joanna Haigh which suggests that above 45Km ozone quantities seem to rise when the sun is quiet presumably leading to warming between the stratopause and mesopause contrary to expectations ?
Presumably the reverse occurs when the sun is more active.
The significance being that that apparent reversed sign solar effect on the mesosphere could well also drive a corresponding reverse sign solar effect on the stratosphere which does accord with late 20th Century observations.
Then the height of the tropopause is affected and the jets shift latitudinally to give climate changes.
Furthermore the process seems to be driven by solar protons (quantities varying with the strength of the solar wind) destroying ozone in the mesosphere when the sun is more active and letting ozone levels recover when the sun is less active.
Those solar protons being charged particles are concentrated around the poles by the Earth’s magnetic field which interacts with the solar magnetic field so there we have a prima facie link between magnetic field variations, the strength of the solar wind and climate shifts in the troposphere.
Sam the Skeptic says: October 29, 2010 at 3:22 am
” So please can you tell me what evidence there is that the earth was created for mankind? Give me hard evidence and I’ll believe it. I’m not aware that anyone has come up with any so far.
Yours in scepticism.”
In the absence of a spiritual entity playing the role of Creator there is no other creation or intention of creation but the one that exists as result of the existing natural laws, i.e. natural laws -> Earth -> Mankind. Mankind is a direct result of the existence of Earth and they exist only because of Earth, therefore Earth was created for humans. Earth was not created for Martians or for Venusians or for anything else. If it wasn’t for the creation of Earth the Mankind would not have been created.
Only if one accepts a spiritual Creator there can be doubts about the reason of the creation of the Earth. In case of the material natural laws there are no second guesses, what you see is what you get. Natural laws acted to create the Earth and then acted to create the humans, there is nothing else to discuss. Earth was created for humans to exist.
It is also true that Earth was not created exclusively for Mankind.
This debate is settled. No scepticism allowed here :-).
Yours in faith!