From the press package:
The findings confirm that carbon dioxide is the most potent greenhouse “control knob”
This seems like a last ditch effort (in the face of falling public opinion) from Gavin Schmidt et al. to make CO2 more important than water vapor in regulating the temperature of the planet.
Via emailed press package, embargoed until 2PM EST 10/14/2010:
Of all the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide exerts the most control on Earth’s climate, researchers report. Although carbon dioxide’s greenhouse effect has been known for more than 100 years, its primary role in climate warming is still not universally acknowledged.
For example, water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas and is more abundant in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide. But, it condenses and precipitates from the atmosphere and thus plays a different role than carbon dioxide and other, noncondensing greenhouse gases, such as ozone, methane and chlorofluorocarbons. Andrew Lacis and colleagues conducted a set of idealized climate model experiments in which various greenhouse gases were added to or subtracted from the atmosphere, in order to illustrate their roles in controlling the temperature of the air.
The findings confirm that carbon dioxide is the most potent greenhouse “control knob” and that its abundance determines how much water vapor the atmosphere contains. Without carbon dioxide, the Earth would plunge into a frozen state, the researchers report, though they caution that increasing levels of this atmospheric gas are also worrisome. “This makes the reduction and control of atmospheric CO2 a serious and pressing issue, worthy of real-time attention,” they write.
[Seems a bit out of balance though.]
- Fig. 1. Attribution of the contributions of individual atmospheric components to the total terrestrial greenhouse effect, separated into feedback and forcing categories. Horizontal dotted and dashed lines depict the fractional response for single-addition and single-subtraction of individual gases to an empty or full-component reference atmosphere, respectively. Horizontal solid black lines are the scaled averages of the dashedand dotted-line fractional response results. The sum of the fractional responses adds up to the total greenhouse effect. The reference atmosphere is for conditions in 1980.
Article #14: “Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature,” by A.A. Lacis; G.A. Schmidt; D. Rind; R.A. Ruedy at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, NY.
Contact: Andrew A. Lacis at alacis@giss.nasa.gov (email).
Here’s the paper: lacis101015 (PDF)
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My Masters thesis including building a model of a “shock tube” device. The solver was tested against results from known problems with “closed form” that correlate well with empirical data. As the underlying equations for both the “closed form” and the numerical model were the same (in this case the Euler equations), all the test did was verfied that the numerical methods were a valid implementation of those equations.
After that we ran a large number of “scenarios” through the solver to find the most promising configurations for later experimentation. These were *never* called experiments — as they weren’t. They were datasets controlling the conditions and imposed boundaries — both of which idealized the actual device to be tests.
We then built (based on guidance from the solver scenarios) a big shock tube and test the device. Those *were* experiments, the results of which guided further solver development to address shortcomings in the model.
Without the closed loop feedback of real experiments it is impossible to either (1) validate the model or (2) improve it’s accuracy. Given the echo chamber these modellers are in, they’ve forgotten this axiom knowledge, losing even the *meaning* of the word “experiment.”
Sad. So sad.
In other news, Bishop is reporting that Connolley has been banned from editing on the subject of Climate Change.
Perhaps an alternate title – Certainer and Certainer
“NASA GISS in Science Express: CO2, Climate’s Main “Control Knob””
Yup, just run their models WITHOUT CO2 forcing and see what you get!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
They should try redesigning their models with ALL the forcings and things like realistic cloud and water vapor effects…
Why is the myopic focus on carbon, the 6th element? What about hydrogen, the first? The deadliest?
The most potent greenhouse gases— much much worse than CO2—in abundance are water vapor and methane. The common element for both is hydrogen. CO2 only contains ONE carbon atom, but hydrogen oxide TWO hydrogen atoms and methane contains FOUR!!
I call for governments of the world to assess their hydrogen footprints. I will be trying to set up a trade in hydrogen offsets, for the world and for our children.
Also, we must consider RFPs (requests for proposals) and award grants to scientists to come up with hydrogen sequestration technologies. One can envision large refrigeration units to freeze out water vapor and bury the ice deep in the earth’s crust or to add to the North Polar ice. This would also save the thousands of drowning polar bears, one of which drowns every six seconds (see accompanying cartoon graph). Emissions standards must be set (it may already be too late) to limit the toxic hydrogen oxide and methane produced by auto exhausts. We should substitute hydrogen exhaust vehicles (HEVs) for cars containing wind sails and/or solar cells. Bicycles are no good—the rider emits vast increases in hydrogen, either water vapor or methane, via multiple egress apertures (EAs).
How many species must go extinct before we act??? How many Hindenburg tragedies must we yet endure? How many more, Mr. Speaker, how many more?
What is YOUR hydrogen footprint???
They could of course measure something. Banks of huge greenhouses in Holland with variable CO2 atmospheres are sitting waiting for something else to do except grow flowers. Not ideal but better than a computer model.
“The findings confirm that carbon dioxide is the most potent greenhouse “control knob” and that its abundance determines how much water vapor the atmosphere contains.”
So, basically they are blaming the creation of Water Vapor on CO2 as well.
So, what are they gonna blame CO2 on next? The OJ Simpson murders?
I think Al Gore was talking about a control knob, meaning CO2, while in that infamous hotel room, and it just plain got misconstrued.
Water vapour “But, it condenses and precipitates from the atmosphere” .
Surely it’s only the concentration that is relevant ? There’s always plenty of water vapour below the dew point.
Thanks for bringing this to our attention, Anthony! I second all comments which are opposed to models and ask for experiments instead.
I do not expect any experiments will be conducted or funded as long as the present governmental-industrial-science connection holds on to its power and influence in the big western countries. I live in Germany, and it is probably a lot worse here than in the USA. There are countries however which have only little or no part in the CO2 connection. One of them, China, wants to send men to the moon. I wonder whether the moon would not be a good place to carry out experiments on CO2 and water vapor. I think that three glasshouses – one enclosing just the moon “atmosphere” (I know there isn´t much or any of it), one filled with CO2 and one filled with water vapor – could be built and then the temperature (above and on/in the ground) could be measured over any desirable period of time. The same measurements would also have to be taken in the open, so one would have four sets of measurements (data). I am not a scientist, my knowledge in physics is limited, and I would greatly appreciate informed thoughts/comments concerning the idea. It came to my mind because it has been argued (by fans of modelling and members of the `Church of Warmism´) that experiments on the earth are difficult/impossible/take too long/etc.
I also really wonder how the temperatures in a glasshouse full of CO2 differ from each other and from the temperature in the open.
Looking forward to comments, but won´t be able to reply soon. It is midnight here, and I need some sleep, then work – you know how it is…
Enneagram says: October 14, 2010 at 1:58 pm
………………
I assume you are referring to challenge to Dr. Svalgaard, it is open to any other major university which is prepared to take a risk and show that main effect on the CETs is not CO2 nonsense, but a perfectly natural physical process, for which there is solid record of data going back to 16th century.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-NAP.htm
“Without carbon dioxide, the Earth would plunge into a frozen state,”
No, as long as long as solar radiation reaches the oceans then the oceans will prevent such an outcome even with no CO2 at all.
Has anyone ever calculated the effect of the oceans on radiative energy transfers and then compared the power of the oceans to the power of CO2 in the air ?
Why are the oceans not treated as part of the atmosphere for energy retention purposes ?
As far as I can tell all the atmospheric calculations ignore the oceans completely or assume that their contribution is static. However the response of the oceans must always be related to the wavelength of incoming energy which varies over time as the sun varies and to the amount of insolation which varies both with solar variability and latitudinal shifts in the air circulation systems (which shift the cloud bands along with them) and to internal oceanic variability as energy is moved around within the oceans and to consequent changes in the hydrological cycle.
Those who rely on atmospheric physics for climate diagnostics are just like the blind men inspecting an elephant.
Ridiculous.
“In 1922 Chamberlin thought the role of CO2 had been greatly overemphasized and that not enough attention had been given to the role of ocean in the climate.”
Good for him. What happened ?
I get it. Knob twisting is probably a mechanism for obtaining further funding. I figured out a long time ago that Kyoto is Japanese for CO2.
It is discouraging that most of the commentators here appear to be lacking enough of a basic physics background to comment intelligently on the global warming problem. The world that we live in operates according to the laws of physics, you know. You will do better in understanding global warming if you pay attention to the physics involved.
“But, it condenses and precipitates from the atmosphere…” Ah, so does CO2. Via incorporation into plant life and calcium carbonate.
So does this mean they found Al Gore’s warm CO2 blanket? Would they like to share, or is it a secret.
Last time I looked CO2 has absorbed all the spectral energy CO2 could absorb, from the sun. So would they like to share their new discovery?
More BS from the BS factory.
Mike says:
October 14, 2010 at 11:43 am
The point is we do not have control over the amount of H2O in the atmosphere. We do have some control over to amount of CO2.
That’s why during a train crash, it is important to sing Elvis songs. You do have some control over Elvis songs.
Of course others will mock and say no amount of fiddling with irrelevencies is going to make any difference whatsoever.
You’ll just have to tell them to don’t be cruel, and they’re the devil in disguise, and nothing but a hound dog.
Not the sharpest knob on the drawer.
Have pity on the climate modelrs twisting knobs, it’s an occupational hazard with the fumes from the glues needed to splice the models together.
Stop right there, and stand away from that knob, a climatology experiment is in progress!
A knob is as a knob does (found in the climatology student notes from “Advanced Climate Modeling: Better approaches to apocalypses).
Columbia University climatology student T-shirt: “Two knobs are better than one.”
Knob Hill: an experiment in post-normal science
In this climatology examination, students must not bring any calculators or knobs into the classroom.
Give me a knob, and I’ll give you the nominal mean average post-normal idealized world.
Have Knob, Will Travel, Real Climate, No Obstacle
It was a knobby problem, but we were able to adjust the climate model for it.
Knob, knob, knob, knob
Climate knob,
Adjust the TOB,
Knob, knob, knob, knob
Ask not what the knob can do for you.
Ask what you can do for the knob to save the planet!
Indeed. You couldn’t make it up.
Are these guys serious? …thought not! They should have listened their parents when they were told “It will make you short sighted”…
I know they want control but which one’s the knob?
Nature produces 96.73% of all CO2; man 3.27%
Nature produces 99.999% of all water vapor; man 0.001%
Wv has a specific heat 2.3 times greater than CO2 and is 10.6 times more prevalent than CO2, giving it 26 times more of a gg effect.
After dialing in the contributions of CH4, N2O, O3 and CFCs, it turns out nature is responsible for 99.72% of the gge; man 0.28%.
The CO2 gw nonsense continues its dreadfully slow retreat into obscurity, holding for dear life onto it’s walker, aided by Gavin Schmidt.
This is really getting pathetic. The paper is so transparently idiotic that it is obvious it is a last-ditch effort.
They know their BS has failed.
Good.
It has started to get very chilly over here in England, and in a week or so, we may see snow. My bet for this winter is long and cold, and like last year, Highway Authorities will have insufficiemt salt, there will be general chaos, and there’s more than a fair chance that we will get some brown-outs.
Climate change will be blamed and our rulers will decide to urgently increase the construction of windmills.
As I turn 70, I am deeply ashamed of what is being done in my homeland, the country of Shakespeare, Newton, Jenner, Lister……………….you would need a volume to complete the list.
And to the west in the new world, we have Hal Lewis, one of the last of that truly great generation, finding the need to disassociate himself from the snake oil salesmen. And my generation is responsible for passing this mess to my children and grandchildren. I’m too old and tired to fight this anymore, but those of you who are in your prime, in your forties, don’t give up, keep fighting for truth, honesty and integrity.