More on the Mashey-Wegman issue. Part 1 is here
John Mashey has written one of those conspiracy theory plots full of colored dots and ink, accusing Edward Wegman of plagiarizing the work of Raymond Bradley and others in his key report to Congress showing the deep flaws in the paper Bradley wrote with Michael Mann and Malcolm Hughes regarding the Hockey Stick Chart.
Bishop Hill has so far said what needed to be said most succinctly:
there are two possibilities in play:
Wegman et al are guilty of plagiarism; short-centred principal components analysis is biased and can produce hockey sticks from red noise
Wegman et al are not guilty of plagiarism; short-centred principal components analysis is biased and can produce hockey sticks from red noise.
There is a bit of meat with John’s Mashed potatoes, sadly, and I’ll get to it in a minute. But let’s get rid of the twisted conspiracy theory garbage first.
In yesterday’s article I noted that it was extremely strange that Mashey would make as his first point the fact that the Congressional sub committee that commissioned Wegman turned over the results of the work they had done prior to Wegman starting his analysis. This is absolutely normal and uncontroversial, but Mashey writes as if it’s evidence of conspiracy, something he seems to find everywhere he looks.
It is also bizarre that Mashey thinks it wrong that works mentioned in the bibliography to Wegman’s report are not cited. This is clearly evidence that Mashey doesn’t understand very much at all about how anything really works. As anybody familiar with publishing knows, the reason a bibliography exists is to show the reader what the author read, precisely because the works may not be cited in the text. But again, this becomes black helicopter conspiracy for Mashey.
But there is a little meat with Mahsey’s potatoes. Please continue.
About half the plagiarization accusations in Mashey’s paper don’t even concern the Wegman report, targeting the recent McShane Wyner paper and dissertations and other collegiate work done by some of Wegman’s associates. Given that the title of Mashey’s report is Strange Scholarship in the Wegman Report, I don’t really see what criticism of other work is doing there. I guess it’s all there to prove a grand conspiracy.
But there is a little meat with Mahsey’s potatoes. Please continue.
In case you think I’m making this conspiracy stuff up, just read pages like 103 of Mashey’s report. It isn’t about Wegman at all. It’s about McShane Wyner,
In a report accusing Edward Wegman of plagiarism, Mashey writes this about an unrelated paper published 4 years later:
“MW, p.2, Paragraph 3
―On the other hand, the effort of world governments to pass legislation to cut carbon to pre-industrial levels cannot proceed without the consent of the governed and historical reconstructions from paleoclimatological models have indeed proven persuasive and effective at winning the hearts and minds of the populace. Consider Figure 1 which was featured prominently in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC, 2001) in the summary for policy makers1. The sharp upward slope of the graph in the late 20th century is visually striking, easy to comprehend, and likely to alarm. The IPCC report goes even further:
‖<B> ―world governments … consent of the governed‖
When one Googles the 6 words above,50 many hits espouse strong conservative/Libertarian political views. Those are fine in the political arena, but not in statistics papers people expect to be credible. From past experience, 51 strong political/ideological beliefs can cause a few physics PhDs to ignore basic laws of physics.”
But there is meat to go with Mashey’s potatoes.
Wegman’s report examined the relationships between the very small community of scientists working in and around the field of paleoclimatology. This is because after Mann’s Hockey Stick chart began receiving criticism, a flurry of papers were suddenly published supporting his results–and they all received prominent attention and temporarily saved Mann’s reputation. But, as Steve McIntyre pointed out, these scientists were all closely connected to Michael Mann, being co-authors, co-bloggers, mentors and advisers of his. Worse, they used the same suspect data and the same discredited analysis techniques.
Wegman formalized an examination of Mann’s compatriots using a relatively new discipline called Social Network Analysis. And in his report to Congress, when Wegman explains what Social Network Analysis is, he copies someone else’s introduction of the science and doesn’t attribute it at all. (It looks like Wikipedia is copied, which means that someone else probably got copied to get it into Wikipedia. There is even the slight chance that Wikipedia copied Wegman, considering dates and such, but that would be just too delicious, so it probably didn’t happen that way.)
So it looks like Wegman and his team did something wrong. They used someone else’s description of social networking analysis and didn’t credit them.
But as near as I can tell, that’s it. And to put their error into perspective, let’s look at how other independent professionals describe social networking analysis without attributing each other:
Social network analysis is concerned with understanding the linkages among social entities and the implications of these linkages. The social entities are referred to as actors that are represented by the vertices of the graph.
Wegman Report
It is concerned with understanding the linkages among social entities and the implications of these linkages. The social entities are referred to as actors that are represented by the vertices of the graph. Most social network applications consider a collection of vertices that are all of the same
WK Sharabati
A social network analysis must also consider data on ties among units” … The entities in digraphs are called nodes and the relations are ….. The density measure describes general level of linkage among the actors in the community
Kilkenny and Nalbarte
A relation is represented as a linkage or a flow between these … relationships among social entities. In Social Network Analysis we can ….. network is referred to this focal person, and every relation is reported by the ego. …. “nodes” of the graph, and the “ties” between actors in the network become “lines”
F Martino
Social network analysis views social relationships in terms of network theory consisting of nodes and ties. Nodes are the individual actors within the networks, and ties are the relationships between the actors.
Wikipedia
Social network analysis [SNA] is the mapping and measuring of relationships and flows between people, groups, organizations, computers, URLs, and other connected information/knowledge entities. The nodes in the network are the people and groups while the links show relationships or flows between the nodes.
Valdis Krebs
Thomas Fuller http://www.redbubble.com/people/hfuller

Leaving aside the fact that this is insubstantial WRT the reasoning and conclusions of the report, how serious is not correctly citing the group efforts at Wikipedia and how is it remedied?
Or put another way, what should Wegman (or one of Wegman’s, ahem, proxies) have done in the first place to avoid this desperate coal-raking some years down the line?
Wikipedias guidance on the subject is that for short excerpts (3 – 4 sentences is the example), no attribution is required; for longer excerpts, the source should be attributed under the license specified:
[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:FAQ/Readers#What_is_the_license_agreement_on_the_contents_of_Wikipedia.3F[/url]
So many of the excerpts may require no attribution of ant kind.
This is the situation now; what the prevailing conditions were at the time the report was compiled, I don’t know, but I’d be very surprised if it had been *more* rigorous; the norms and mores surrounding use of Wikipedia would certainly have evolved in he intervening years.
No story to tell from Wikipedia’s angle.
From the pespective of any readers, they are misled to the extent that they would not have known the text came from Wikipedia. No-one is saying that text is incorrect or inappropriate either.
In short then, the conclusion we should draw is that SHORT-CENTRED PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS IS BIASED AND CAN PRODUCE HOCKEY STICKS FROM RED NOISE.
I forget where I found that quote. Sorry.
Nick,
Actually, I would have told my students this:
1. Your prefatory material needs the same attention to detail and documentation as your original work.
2. I certainly didnt think you were passing off a synopsis of the state of the art as “original” STILL, to avoid the charge of copyright infringement you should
A. rewrite the section using quotation more liberally.
B. rewrite the section and do a more complete paraphrasing of the common
background material. be sure to cite the source you are using as your source for this overview of the state of the science.
3. When you work with other authors, you need to ensure that they follow the rules. who wrote the sections in question, they need some direction.
I would not see it as plagarism for they are not clearly trying to pass off the prefatory material as a piece of original work. The assignment was to review Mann.
I’d not report such a case to the dean. I would dock the student 1 full grade and expect a rewrite. And, I’d probably force them to give me all drafts on future work.
having done my fair share of these ( back when you had to spot plagarism by changes in style) That was typically what I would do in these cases.
Tom,
Thanks for the article, but you might like to review it – it’s a bit garbled and repetetive in places. Maybe some kind of formatting glitch?
Leaving aside the fact that this is insubstantial WRT the reasoning and conclusions of the report, how serious is not correctly citing the group efforts at Wikipedia and how is it remedied?
Or put another way, what should Wegman (or one of Wegman’s, ahem, proxies) have done in the first place to avoid this desperate coal-raking some years down the line?
Wikipedias guidance on the subject is that for short excerpts (3 – 4 sentences is the example), no attribution is required; for longer excerpts, the source should be attributed under the license specified, CC-BY-SA (I had a link but it was rejected)
So, many of the excerpts may require no attribution of any kind.
And this is the situation now; what the prevailing conditions were at the time the report was compiled, I don’t know, but I’d be very surprised if it had been *more* rigorous; the norms and mores surrounding use of Wikipedia would certainly have evolved in he intervening years.
No story to tell from Wikipedia’s angle.
From the pespective of any readers, they are misled to the extent that they would not have known the text came from Wikipedia. No-one is saying that text is incorrect or inappropriate either.
In short then, the conclusion we should draw is that SHORT-CENTRED PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS IS BIASED AND CAN PRODUCE HOCKEY STICKS FROM RED NOISE.
I forget where I found that quote. Sorry.
Mike:
The Bradley material WAS attributed. The failing there was not plagarism but rather copyright violation. And the failure to use quotation where it would be required.
But be careful those words of bradley have appeared elsewhere without attribution.
On the one hand I am pleased to learn that this most recent criticism of Wegman’s report is as hollow as that which came before it, I can’t help but be bothered by this question:
Does the debunking of Mann’s hockey stick (and in a similar vein, the questions surrounding CRU and GISS temperature records) help or hinder the skeptic argument?
Strangely, I think it hinders it. The real argument is in regard to the warming effects of CO2 on the planet. We’ve allowed ourselves to be diverted into a debate regarding tree rings, temperature records, polar bear extinction, and so on. The “evidence” can’t be debunked as fast as it can be manufactured.
I don’t particularly care if the planet has warmed recently or not. It did it before, it will do it again, and the same goes for cooling. The question is, how much of the variability is a result of human CO2 emissions? That should be the front and center argument in any discussion of AGW, yet we let the warmists hijack the agenda with all sorts of stories that make little sense when one confronts the facts.
1. The temperature record cannot be correlated with CO2 increases.
2. If 100% of the reported warming of the last 100 years is attributed to CO2 increases and nothing else, then sensitivity is on the order of 1 degree per doubling or less, and the magnifying effect of water vapour, if any, is included in that.
3. CO2 is logarithmic, hence the reference to doubling, even in the IPCC reports. The amount of CO2 required to elevate temperatures to a dangerous level is, therefore, quite beyond the capacity of human beings to produce, even if that were our only goal for fossil fuel consumption.
That the warmists are reduced to crying foul over what at best is a minor case of plagiarism that changes the results of the document not one bit is a sign of just how desperate the warmists are in diverting attention from the real issue. Even their own data doesn’t support CAGW.
Mashey’s allegations are primarily intended to discredit Wegman right before he testifies before Congress in January in the ClimateGate hearings. The vast majority of American citizens won’t understand the details, they will just read the headline about Wegman being investigated for plagiarism. That is the way the left plays politics in the USA.
Of course Wegman quoted much text from Mashey, Wegman was analyzing Mashey’s work. Wegman’s team should have not been so sloppy about attribution but a lot of pro bono work is done not quite as rigorously as it should be. Let’s be clear, Wegman was not publishing original research in his area of research, he was merely auditing substandard work and pointing out the flaws in the audited work. Anyway, Wegman will be cleared of the charges and much more motivated to do a good job come January.
From a skeptic’s perspective, anything that draws attention to the work of Mann is good.
Steven mosher says: October 10, 2010 at 4:30 pm
“But be careful those words of bradley have appeared elsewhere without attribution.”
Do you know that? Steve McI has said that they appeared, but didn’t say anything about attribution. And the book source is inaccessible to me.
Anthony wrote:
“REPLY: It has yet to be determined if the issue is with Wegman himself of an assistant – Anthony”
Wegman led the team and signed off on the report. The issue is with him.
REPLY: Well, that’s not something you get to determine. George Mason University does. – Anthony
I don’t know the details of US, as opposed to UK, law although they are generally very similar in these matters.
From what has been said here I gather this report was commissioned by Congress under whatever provisions of the committee: who then published it. As such it is a privileged document issued under the imprimatur of Congress and consequently no question of plagiarism or copyright can arise.
Kindest Regards
‘a relatively new discipline called Social Network Analysis.’
SNA is a collection of very old practices that “recently” was collected into a unified collection of “refined” approaches and given a nerdy-information-age-name. It’s like the label social engineering which just means how to fool information out of someone.
What’s really funny with the statement is the concept of “relatively new” in a information-age context, since in the information-age context SNA is frakking old news. The weird thing is that the intelligence community who loves their labels can’t move on to the new stuff even though they’re mostly made up of jit-geeks-n-nerds. Of cours it’s only weird in the sense that society today give the bureaucrats the leeway it does even though everyone who remembers their history of ancient greek and roman society know full well that a shit load of the problems with advanced societies is too much information ordered in too old rules. Standard bureaucracy is always to blame as long as it’s designed by the old standards of being firm, fixed and stiff, but continuously applied to new standards, new information (and lest not forget that what once was deemed important has a tendency to end up on the nearest old and abused scrap heap rather quickly), new ideas, ideologies, morals, rules and regulations, hah even new formats for both the old and new information makes bureaucracy outdated faster ‘an light.
Personally I think bureaucracy killed SNA as a viable option. Bureaucracy works when stuff don’t change too often because then bureaucracy has time to change with the time it lives in. The standardized definition of the bureaucracy version of SNA is how people behaved in their communication back in the day when interaction was more static like up to 1995. Today people interact amongst each other in like a fluid dynamic way in a chaos complexity environment. People interact, communicate, more and more whit each other, with whom ever even, based on how they feel at a specific point in time rather then by standardized (physical world) social formula.
SNA I believe was dead even before it became live so to speak what with bureaucracy only is an effective filter for limiting information that can be standardized (was very effective during the height of the industrial mass production age) or put another way one-size fit all.
SNA works when you keep it 19th century simple because then you only use standardized information and are only concerned with that information. Now days though people initiate a communication with each other because one reduced or uped the likeability level of someone else on some site and had to tell it to that someone who got uped or reduced or the person who got uped or reduced just has to know way he was uped or reduced, nine days later they’re bestest of frakking friends and have made it known to all their virtual friends and hopefully everyone else as well and preferably then some, and three days later they have no more contact. Maybe if every analyst also was a full blown behavior psychologist/scientist and into graphology, criminology, statistics, and what not, it could work but otherwise everything is just white noise because nobody really took the time to quantify red noise, instead the red noise the intelligence gatherer want is what’s predefined by what bureaucracy decided was important (i.e. what bureaucracy could standardize so to speak.)
Why do you see so many red flags when it has been determined that you can only account for red flags in an environment of white noise consisting only of supposedly white flags?
Steven Mosher,
plagiarism isn’t restricted to appropriation of ideas… when someone is copying an expression of ideas they are appropriating someone else’s ‘work’… expression comes under the definition of work… when you don’t use quotation marks you are laying claim to that expression… all definitions of plagiarism i’ve read cover this, e.g. from GMU’s Historical News Network…
Nick Stokes says:
October 10, 2010 at 3:19 pm
I agree it is a new topic but it is still part of a report on how the MBH paper and climate science in general has developed, so it is a still on the topic. He uses Social Network Analysis as a tool in much the same way I’d use the Unified Modeling Language when designing a database. He gives an explanation of the the terms, he is not in an way presenting Social Network Analysis as a concept he invented.
I don’t think we can be considering this as plagiarism as defined in the Oxford:
Though I would agree he should have included where he obtained his knowledge of the tool in the bibliography but I don’t think such an oversight meets the above defintion either.
Charges of copyright infringement can only be brought by the copyright holder (or somebody acting on behalf of the copyright holder with their permission). Is the same true of plagiarism?
If its only the original author who can bring charges of plagiarism then Bradley can only raise a complaint about his material. Any other allegations of plagiarism would have to be made by the authors of the other material (for example wikipedia).
If anybody can bring charges, without the original authors consent, then this could open a whole new can of worms. Since this lets-distract-from-the-findings-of-the-report-gate started I’ve seen people posting many examples of the team freely copying parts of each others work without citation or attribution (see ZT’s comment above for example). This would mean that anybody could raise a charge of plagiarism for each and every example and there isn’t anything the original authors could do about it.
Wiki;
Here’s a wquestion to all the warmists poring over the Wegman report. Now that you have read it, what do you say to its conclusions?
The accusation of Wegman committing plagiarism is one of those “So What?” issues.
Just because Wegman may have copied some Wikipedia or other source does not mean it was plagiarism. It was not presented as his own original academic work.
At most it was improperly referenced material. This does not rise to the level of the dishonesty of the IPCC in making up non-existent sources, or including shallow, non-pier reviewed sources.
Wegman’s work is honest, and makes a vital point. Mann’s work is BS, and Wegman showed too much respect for Mann’s work by not calling it fraudulent.
The level of panic in such shallow assertions as Mashey’s doesn’t fool anyone. AGW advocates don’t worry about facts. They just attack the messenger. What kind of mentality is that?
The basic point that seems to be lost here is that the hockey stick is dead. There is no causal relationship between the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the increase in meteorological surface air temperature (MSAT). There was just a coinicidence between an increase in ocean surface temparatures that influenced the MSAT and the CO2 concentration that has now ended.
The issue now is that the ghost of the dead hockey stick still lives on in the bowels of the climate astrology models disguised as radiative forcing constants. That is where the real global warming fraud now resides.
I am using words in this sentence that come from the English language; each word has a rich history and often various meanings exploited in many works before I emitted these copies of the words here. Each sentence of every book I’ve ever read or that you’ve ever read also contains words of similar pedigree. Yet we don’t bother to provide citations for each work we’ve read where we learned of these words since we started learning words now do we? There are many situations where we don’t cite things at all and many cases where we do. More often than not it’s the meanings of the words that matter, not the source. While I cite where I quote from many people don’t as a practical matter and as a matter of style.
As for reports meant for Congress would not the meaning be more important than exactly how it was cited? Or does the report all of a sudden become null and void?
Is it claimed that the allegedly cited material which lacks citation is fabricated science or incorrect science somehow?
Would not a revised version with an erratum be permissible to be published? Book authors and publishers of many technical books in my twenty plus bookshelf library provide errata and revised versions with corrections. Heck authors such as Donald Knuth offered a $2.56 reward for each error found. Assuming that the lack of an expected citation by some would be deserving of a reward the person who, ahem found such, would need to ask the authors if they are giving said rewards out.
Certainly if failing to provide a reference for quoted material is of grave concern what about the meaning of the report itself? Surely it’s meaning is still valid regardless of the source of the materials? Or because it lacks a citation the flaws it points out in Mann’s bad science suddenly become alright and acceptable? I think not.
So it’s nothing more than a forgotten reference. Move along, nothing to see except the relevant contents that slam Mann to the mat for his fabricated science.
With nothing better to do the real deep climate deniers should really learn to focus on the actual science rather than diverting attention with a few valid yet not properly cited references which can be corrected with the issuance of a new version of the report fully annotated. Mann’s science on the other hand is seriously flawed due to it’s methodology and little Mann can do will ever fix it up to be valid science since it’s been falsified left, right and center by Nature herself too boot (see Girma Orrsenago’s papers).
No works were copied in here. Any words or sequences of words that appear here that also appear elsewhere are the result of multiple groups of 100 monkey’s typing their tiny fingers off. Every word used was learned by me from some source of material long forgotten thus I can’t cite where I learned it from. Some words like the word word were likely learned in grade school but I don’t remember which one. So shoot me. Also I’ve not provided the definitions of any of the words used in this comment so you’ll have to figure out which meanings for each word I meant. Oh, and while I mentioned the works of a couple of scientists I’ve not listed any references to their materials, for that you’ll have to look up their works. This is the internet after and you have a bing googler you can yahoo! Besides alarmists rarely define their terms and haven’t provided as far as I’ve seen in years of looking even a basic definition in writing of their alleged alarmist CAGW hypotheses; there seems to be more than one and they keep changing which can’t be a good sign as Feynman pointed out. It’s more like the alarmists are in a climate of changing hypotheses as each one is debunked. Damn another science reference not referred to with a citation. So shoot me.
Wegman: Using Social Networking Analysis as a tool…..
Polly: WTF??
Wegman: quotes above PD from Wiki
Polly: OK carry on.
Dave.
I have been a victim of plagiarism.
I described my work to a professor at a major university. He seemed to show little interest and so I put the meeting out of my mind. About a year later, I attended a local conference at which the professor gave a talk describing his new work. I was very surprised to hear my ideas bing described with no modification. He had a year to work on the ideas but had not made any progress. A short time after the talk, the professor and I crossed paths in the exhibition area outside of one of the lecture halls. We made eye contact and it was clear that we both knew what was going on. I had made progress on the ideas in the year but he was still spouting the same ideas that I had told him a year before under a signed non-disclosure.
I was even more surprised a year later when I opened a Scientific American in a bookstore near my home. There was a major article describing the professor’s work. My ideas were still there and in much the same state as they had been when I told him about them years before.
I also know of some one who went to a C level engineering manager to obtain advice on how to make an idea known within a research organization. He was surprised when he then saw a report from the manager describing these ideas and attributing them to himself. He complained to the divisional VP who took care of the matter.
I was a victim of plagiarism and I know the effect of the idea theft. I did the hard work and a lazy professor stole the result of that work. I know what plagiarism is. I do not see any plagiarism in the descriptions of Wegman’s report. he did not try to obtain credit for the work of others. he did not attempt to steal any ideas.
TerryS says:
October 10, 2010 at 5:07 pm
No, Terry, charging plagiarism is not restricted to original authors. When a student, for example, plagiarizes a term paper, the instructor has the option of filing charges even though it is not his work being misappropriated. It is in fact a positive obligation on every academic to expose intellectual dishonesty whenever it occurs.
AntoonDV said:
“Plagiarism means using the exact words, opinions, or factual information from another person without giving that person credit.”
Fair enough. Let’s also keep in mind that there is a concept of generally-understood information in a field. A physicist who writes a book and has an introductory chapter on basic physics concepts would likely in that chapter include much information, even descriptions, that are very similar to what a thousand other people have said before. But if it is generally-understood information in the field, it is not necessary to scour the world to determine if someone else wrote about it first and then cite them.
Where it crosses the line is with the word “exact” in the university’s definition you cite (and “exact” doesn’t have to be quite “exact’ in the logical sense; taking a long passage with only minimal changes would be “exact” enough). In cases where exact language, or specific opinions or factual information that is not generally known in the field come into play, a citation, reference or acknowledgement is appropriate.
It sounds like there are some passages in Wegman’s report that cross that line, just as there is a similar situation with Team members that ZT cites at 3:49 above. If so, Wegman should acknowledge the failure to cite/refer/acknowledge and strive to do better.
Now, then, the question is whether Wegman’s analysis of the hockey stick is affected as a result? Well, we might have slightly less trust in Wegman’s ability to be scrupulously accurate in everything he wrote, so in that sense it is relevant. But only just barely. On the substance of the statistical critique of the hockey stick, the analysis remains and the main thrust of the Wegman report stands.
I have to agree with some commenters that the Team can’t be happy with all this renewed attention being paid to the Wegman report. It will come back to bite them.
TerryS, AFAIK, plagiarism is not an actionable offense under the law. Rather, it is an academic standard. So the institution that oversees the standard for that particular individual is responsible for reviewing the issue and giving out any exoneration/punishment it determines. It is not the case that the individual whose work was cited is the only party who can claim plagiarism. A third party could complain, the institution itself could initiate a review, etc.
In my experience of observing some pretty vigorous social movements, the ones who cry ‘conspiracy’ the most are the ones engaging in it.
AGW promoters, from Hansen to Gore to Mann, to Pachurai, to Obama to Holdren all depend on conspiracy to keep their faithful in line.
AGW is a fascinating social dysfunction.