OK we have competing stories here. Read on, then place your bets.
Russian winter. Image from englishrussia.com – click
From the RT News service: Coldest winter in 1,000 years on its way
04 October, 2010, 22:20
After the record heat wave this summer, Russia’s weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme.
Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years.
The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years. Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.
So far, the results have been lower temperatures: for example, in Central Russia, they are a couple of degrees below the norm.
“Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, told RT. “We will be able to judge with more certainty come November. As for last summer’s heat, the statistical models that meteorologists use to draw up long-term forecasts aren’t able to predict an anomaly like that.”
In order to meet the harsh winter head on, Moscow authorities are drawing up measures to help Muscovites survive the extreme cold.
Most of all, the government is concerned with homeless people who risk freezing to death if the forecast of the meteorologists come true. Social services and police are being ordered to take the situation under control even if they have to force the homeless to take help.
Moscow authorities have also started checking air conditioning systems in all socially important buildings. All the conditioners are being carefully cleaned from the remains of summer smog.
=======================================
From the Voice of Russia
This year’s winter may be the harshest – Polish climatologists
According to Polish climatologists, the Gulfstream- the Atlantic warm current, which protects Europe against the Arctic cold, is cooling fast. It might even disappear completely, they warn.
Russian meteorologists disagree with the pessimism of their Polish counterparts, agreeing though that the speed of the Gulfstream has indeed been reduced two-fold for several years. The Scandinavian countries are already feeling the breathing of the Arctic.
The Polish climatologist, Mikhail Kovalevski [sic] believes that if the trend continues, the climatic zones will move North and Europe will become a permafrost area for ever. But after looking at satellite pictures, NASA officials say that the global warming of the past 18 years has made the Gulfstream stronger and warmer. Russian meteorologists however hold the middle ground, Alexander Frolov, head of the Russian Meteorological Agency says.
The Gulfstream is powerful and is not declining; it warms up Europe, and consequently, it has a high significance for both Poland and the Scandinavian nations. But access to the heat might be restricted by the thawing of the ice and the turning of the water fresh – that is cold fresh water may appear on the surface, preventing the heat from going into the atmosphere to have an impact on the climate. We do not overestimate such a phenomenon, Frolov says.
He agrees that the Arctic ice is thawing fast, and according to the specialists, the area of the ice is now 4.8 million kilometers-600 thousand kilometers less than in 2007. said Frolov. That is the third minimum area of ice ever recorded since the beginning of meteorological observation. The Arctic is indeed very warn at the moment, particularly the western part, Frolov says.
But despite the warning in the North Pole, winter will set in, and according to the preliminary forecast by Russian weathermen, the country will have a normal Russian winter, perhaps not as harsh as last year, Frolov says.
January will be the coldest and February will produce a mixture of weather, he said. He promised Russians a two-week frost in many regions of the country-most likely in the northern parts.
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My money is on Nostradamus and the Mayan calendar.
Well, I don’t think the basis of either forecast is correct as mitigation of northern Europe winters by the Gulf Stream is, like CAGW, the climatological equivalent of an urban legend. In reality it is that air circulation provides the majority of heat transport:-
1. The ocean absorbs heat in summer and releases it in winter. Regions that are downwind of oceans in winter will have mild climates. This process does not require ocean currents or ocean heat transport.
2. The atmosphere moves heat poleward and warm climates where the heat converges. In additions, the waviness in the atmospheric flow creates warm climates where the air flows poleward and cold climates where it flows equatorward.
3. The ocean moves heat poleward and will warm climates where it releases heat and the atmosphere picks it up and moves it onto land.
Full paper “Is the Gulf Stream responsible for Europe’s mild winters?” by R. SEAGER, D. S. BATTISTI, J. YIN, N. GORDON, N. NAIK, A. C. CLEMENT and M. A. CANE – Oct. 2002
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/pubs/Seager_etal_QJ_2002.pdf
Can any of our regular contributors provide up to date data to enable us non scientists to interpret this jumbled stuff ?
I wasn’t aware of any substantial change in the Gulf Stream itself although the waters off Western Europe are cooler than they were but I just saw that as a gradual effect from a fading of the past warming of those waters induced by the long run of late 20th century El Ninos.
I could go with the suggestion that those El Ninos resulted in a long spell of Gulf Stream strengthening (18 or so as NASA says) but that it is now in decline (as the Poles suggest). That might square the circle between the reports but, as always, extrapolating a current trend forward indefinitely is just silly.
“the climatic zones will move North”
Surely that is a typo and North should be South ?
Anyway as long as the jets remain equatorward with lots of blocking events then I would expect colder winters in the mid latitudes of both hemispheres just as we have seen.
Attempting to predict the severity and location however remains a mugs game.
Bogus from the start. The Gulfstrem isn’t slowing. That report was superseded by another study which said there’s too much error in the measurements and too short a data span to draw any conclusions. May be cold in Russia this summer, but I don’t believe anyone who bases that on the Gulfstream.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/7536760/Gulf-Stream-is-not-slowing-down-scientists-claim.html
Gulfstream not slowing.
Lessee here: The Russians and the Poles both say the Gulf Stream is cooling, but NASA says it’s warming, and getting more so.
Where doth the truth lie?
Aside from prognostications and predictions, and the fact that the Arctic ice is shown to be increasing at a rather fast clip (recent post here at WUWT on ice extent), then NASA seems to be in err.
Trade Winds are weaker during the El Nino event on Pacific. The same weakness of Trade Winds also causes similar event on Atlantic. During this event the Gulfstream is also weaker, but as soon as Trade Winds blow faster, Gulf stream also speeds up.
It might be so that Polish have measured correctly the slow speed of Gulf Stream during the last El Nino event, but they didn’t notice that its all past now.
The warm water from last “Atlantic El Nino” has passed to north Atlantic by now and north Atlantic is everything but cold right now.
This is not to say that next winter would not be cold; it will due to strongly negative AO.
Nice one Matt lol
@ur momisugly Baa Humbug
my dear fellow, your faith in me is quite touching, but speaking as a doddery old codger, semi-retired and partially retarded from an un-distinguished career in the NHS, you would be wise to go solely with the Mayans. My great uncle told me, way back in the late 40’s that the Mayans had pretty much experienced all there was to experience politically, agriculturally and climatically [ the latter by inference ] and they coped very well – up to a point. So an in-depth study of their cultural records and coping mechanisms wouldn’t go amiss.
Perhaps we could re-institute a few Mayan and Inca tactics by reviving the ancient religious art of human sacrifice. Please forward your candidate lists to me and I’ll see what I can do – I still have some contacts in the murky world of ‘medicine’. Perhaps a grand sacrifice on a grand, global scale would appease the “Weather – no! – Climate – no! – Weather – no! – Climate Gods”!
Yours etc
Nostrumdammit
Baa Humbug;
Love it! Best summing up yet!
Don’t know the odds in a two horse race but put ten each way for me!
Gulfstream is not slownig and polish meteorologists are not the source of this information. All start with italian physicist – Gianluigi Zangari:
http://www.associazionegeofisica.it/OilSpill.pdf
First “shocking” news comes from this site (conspiracy theories etc.):
http://www.rense.com/MexicoAlreadyDead.html
Then the same information appeared in polish site (conspiracy again):
http://www.globalnaswiadomosc.com/ostrzezeniegolfstrom.htm
and “wolnemedia”.
So, please don’t say that the polish meteorologists, forecasters or scientists says that “a new Ice Age will begin in Europe. “. They don’t.
Russia? Poland? Scandinavia? Who cares!
If the jet stream keeps messing around along the east coast of the US this winter like it’s been doing the past couple weeks, there’ll be heaps of snow to shovel this winter, especially in the northeast.
Methinks those Polish scientists have “shot their bolt” a little too early. Ice Age for Europe scares are unlikely to gain traction for another 10-20 years or so.
Surely if the Gulf Steam had indeed slowed by half then we in the UK and Ireland would know all about it by now. Also, with 50% less warm water heading in, Arctic ice
would be growing at an ‘alarming’ rate.
“The Polish climatologist, Mikhail Kovalevski believes that if the trend continues…”. Careful with those trend lines Mikhail.
Looking at some of the long standing thermometer records on the (Atlantic) gateway to the Arctic (Nuuk, Reykjavik) and using them as a proxy for sea temperatures, I’m also going with a rapid growth in “Ice Age Europe” scares (to more than 2 sd above the 1980-2010 average) in the coming decades.
I am expecting a mild winter. Not because of climate change warming us up, but because I have seen several of these predictions of a deep winter cold recently.
In my experience, seasonal forecasts are often opposite what actually happens. I think a mild but wet winter is on the way.
Frankly, Anthony, I am surprised not to have seen you covering the “Gulf Stream cut in half” story. Considering how that plays a prominent role in the silly movie “The Day After Tomorrow”, anything stating that the Gulf Stream is slowing, stopping, coming to a halt, etc., cries out for debunking.
Got an email yesterday…….Richard, I went to your website for the first time and found it fascinating but some of your forecasts for snow in the NE (I live in North Jersey) in April and May, 2011 and 2012, seem extremely unlikely to verify. Are they real forecasts made using your system, or are they some type of website error? If they were to verify, goodbye interglacial, hello Ice Age!
Look forward to hearing back from you on this.
my reply;
The data used to form the maps is derived by pulling up the daily data from the same dates (within 11 to 14 days of the same as the julian date of the forecast) from past cycles from 19, 37, and 55 years before the forecast date. In these past years these actual amounts of snowfall occurred and most likely will again. However given that the solar activity was higher then, than it is projected to be for the next 10+ years.
When these cyclic patterns return I expect to see the temperatures to be running as much as 3 to 6 degrees colder, which in the past two springs allowed the snow, and freezing rain line to drop a couple hundred miles further South into the rain I had forecast. For an example look back at the forecasts maps that are still posted for the massive freezing rain caused power outage in the Tennessee, and Kentucky area the last two years. It was verified the last two years, and I expect it will again.
Welcome back to the good ole days your parents speak about.
“That is the third minimum area of ice ever recorded since the beginning of
meteorological observationsatellite monitoring.”BBC March 2010
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8589512.stm
Gulf Stream ‘is not slowing down’
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News
Data came from the global network of Argo floats in the oceans
The Gulf Stream does not appear to be slowing down, say US scientists who have used satellites to monitor tell-tale changes in the height of the sea.
Caleb says:
October 5, 2010 at 1:50 am
No sunspots today.
More NASA Omega blockers as things continue to stall out.
At least that data I can see.
Wherever data is to be found on the speed and temp. of the Gulfstream, I have not been able to find. Just a bunch of statements and opinions.
Do I see a WUWT gulf stream page in our future?
Oh no, not again…
Face/palm
well, so far it has been cold here – colder than climatic norm (as given in wikipedia =) by approx. 4C, or even more, granted that norm is averaged for October, and it has just started. Compared to a string of warm autumns we’ve been having during ’00s, it feels.
What strange is the wind patterns – we’re having north-easterlies again, except in summer they were hot and now they are cold.
Now, it is just a personal, so i may be wrong. But it is common to think that autumn brings endless rains – weak but prologned, it is nothing like that this year… just yet. Well, we’ll see
Re Kate, 1.38 am, the photos were in the Sunday Times also. I am not sure how many believe this stuff any more. Sea level at London is rising due to land sinking. Britain is tilting due to post glacial rebound.
West Arctic was warm because of a blocking high in the Atlantic diverting dying hurricanes over W Greenland rather than over W Europe giving UK a fine September. This high has gone for now and W Greenland is cooling and we in UK are getting wet again. I am afraid that these climate “scientists” are of a poor calibre. Everything is attributed to AGW even although the theories would not predict rapid and large warming in W Greenland as we have seen in recent weeks.
Voice of Russia totally wrong on ice areas.
crosspatch says:
October 5, 2010 at 12:10 am
“according to the specialists”
“See, thats the thing. They dont name anyone but they do make it plural as if to imply that many of them believe that. Sort of like US articles that have scientists say or according to scientists without actually telling us who the scientists are.”
This is a common device used by the American MSM. For example, they take flimsy poll numbers and state “…the American people say…” which, of course, is complete BS.
As for this winter, I’m going with colder and snowier than normal up here in New Hampshire. Accordingly, I’m need to order two tons of pellets for my pellet stove today :^)
Lets see now, Europe is the object that continues to complain about global warming but is dependent on the Gulf Stream to remain warm. They are willing to pay oodles of money for “carbon credits” so that they do not get warmer. The US is running a huge budget deficit. This suggests an obvious solution. Build a large dam that stops the Gulf Stream from getting to Europe and charge them to let any water get through. Then they can pay us all the money that they waste on their fool carbon credits. They get their desired temperature, we get our desired money. Problem solved. /sarc (In case there is an AGW person reading this.)