Sun's magnetics remain in a funk: sunspots may be on their way out

Steve Keohane says:
September 18, 2010 at 1:10 pm
That is a useful graphic and I can make second order prediction from it, and that is that NASA will finally make a correct prediction about Solar Cycle 24 in two years time. So keep that graph handy because you will have the opportunity to update it.
There is a tendency when one has been proved correct to go for over-reach. Based on Ed Fix’s work, which in turn is based on the force that dare not speak its name, solar activity will be back to normal from about 2035.
I regard Dr Svalgaard’s daily updated graph of F 10.7 flux as one of the most useful things on the net. That remains as flat as a biscuit.

Here is another look at L&P contrast and its (‘inverse’) relationship to the sunspot number.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/L&P1.htm
It is possible that this is an effect which may disappoint.
It would be interesting to here (currently absent) Dr. Svalgaard’s view as the L&P effect the most enthusiastic promoter.

Geoff Sharp says:
September 19, 2010 at 2:20 am
As you did not answer this question on another thread lets have another go here.
From that other thread:
Geoff Sharp says:
September 18, 2010 at 8:23 am
How do you answer that…other than we have a mad scientist in our mist.
oops dropped the d in midst.
Your ‘mist’ sounds eminently more plausible.
Here is the whole story:
Before 1861 Wolf used the superb Fraunhofer x64 refractor to set the standard. For several years after 1860 Wolf was engaged in the Geodetic Survey of all Switzerland and was often away. In order not to disrupt the sunspot series by prolonged absences, Wolf took to use a smaller, portable x40 ‘pocket’ telescope which he eventually used exclusively, letting this assistant Wolfer from ~1877 observe with the x64. Wolf was well aware that the x40 did not show all the spots that he would count [plus the many even smaller ones that he wouldn’t count anyway] with the x64, so Wolf increased all x40 counts by 50% [In particular this means that the x40 did not set the ‘threshold’ for what should be counted with the standard x64]. Also in 1861 Wolf summarily doubled all values before ~1800 that he had derived using Staudacher’s drawings because that would bring the count into better agreement with the magnetic needle]. Using the same argument, Wolf in 1874 increased all values before his own observations started in 1849 by 25% based on new magnetic data from Milan since 1835.
Wolfer realized that Wolf’s criterion for what to count was too subjective and proposed to [and did for his own measurements] count everything that could be seen with a given scope. Based on 17 years of simultaneous measurements, Wolfer [after Wolf’s death in 1893] found that multiplying his all-inclusive counts by 0.6 would bring them into agreement [on a statistical basis – not on a day-by-day basis] with Wolf’s values. This was a mistake. Rather than lowing the numbers, they should have been increased by a factor of 1/0.6=1.67, just as Wolf increased the numbers in 1861 and 1874. Had he done that, we might not now have all the discussion about the 0.6, because that factor would have been quietly forgotten, just like nobody today worries [and most don’t even know] about the factors 2.0 and 1.25 that Wolf applied to the early data. But perhaps there was by 1893 a ‘user base’ that might object to such correction.
Wolfer’s successor Brunner carried on Wolfer’s count faithfully using the x64, so no discontinuity was introduced. Waldmeier who took over in 1945 was inexperienced with the x64 and wrongly [as far as I can discover from reading all the thousands of pages of the Astronomische Mitteilungen from Zurich] believed that Wolfer [since 1882] had used a weighting scheme counting the smallest specks once, pores twice, ordinary spots thrice, and larger spots 5 times. The weighting schema that was applied to x64 counts [which was always used for the sunspot number, even as Waldmeier used larger telescopes in his studies of filaments and faculae].
The weighting schema introduces an [artificial] upward jump of some 20% of the sunspot number. It would be best to compensate for that by increasing the earlier numbers by that factor [following Wolf’s procedure of adjusting earlier data] to maintain the current calibration of the sunspot number [which is used by operational programs – military, avionics, satellites, etc].
At the end of 1978 Waldmeier retired and the custody of the sunspot series was transferred to SIDC in Brussels. Waldmeier’s assistant, Hans-Uwe Keller continued observing [to the present] with the original x64 using Waldmeier’s weighting scheme [as far as I know – the sources just say that he ‘continued the series the same way’]. SIDC used various methods [including Keller’s overlapping data] and observations from Locarno to harmonize their calibration with Waldmeier’s. They were partly successful in achieving this, although comparison with F10.7 may indicate a small [5%] change. Later, about 2001, there has been a downward jump of 12-15% in the SIDC calibration, which are now undercounting the spots compared to NOAA and all the other dozen organizations counting spots [including Keller]. The reason for this is under investigation, but there is no doubt that the SIDC count is now too low [even SIDC as per my recent visit, does not dispute that].
Now to your question:
“Would the original Wolf 64x telescope record the same sunspot numbers as Locarno if the Waldmeier “weighting factor” was not applied to the Wolf 64x telescope?”
According to Waldmeier, Locarno shows the same number of spots and pores as the x64. To get from those counts to a Sunspot Number, they both have to be treated the same way, weighted and scaled by 0.6, or not if you just want the raw numbers. One must assume that Waldmeier did this. But the question doesn’t matter as Locarno was [and in isolation is] not used to derive the SSN.