I have not had time to read this report, but I have gathered both the short form and long form version of the report and placed links in the University of Miami press release for WUWT readers to have a look and comment. – Anthony
Report Issued Today Examines Improving Long-Term Climate Forecasts
MIAMI — September 8, 2010 — Operational forecasting centers produce climate predictions that provide input for important decisions regarding water management, agriculture, and energy. “Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability”, a new report from the National Research Council/National Academy of Sciences, examines current capabilities for making climate predictions — such as seasonal hurricane or longer-term drought forecasts — and identifies opportunities for improvement.
(Here’s a links to: the short form brief: here – long form complete report: NAS_12878 – by chapters here – Source here at NAS – Anthony)
The report finds that operational forecast centers could increase the value of forecasts for officials and researchers by modifying procedures for archiving and disseminating information. In addition, improvements over the next several years to observational capabilities, statistical and dynamical models, and data assimilation systems should permit the forecast systems centers to better understand key processes — such as variables in the atmosphere, ocean, or land surfaces — that could help improve forecasts.
“There is an apparent plateau in our ability to make accurate seasonal forecasts; this report provides a road map to enable both scientific research and technical advancements to go beyond this plateau and produce seasonal forecasts that are of greater societal relevance,” said Ben Kirtman, University of Miami Meteorology and Physical Oceanography professor and co-author of the report. “One of the more daunting challenges in this regard is figuring out how to seamlessly transition research results into real improvements in operational forecasts.”
UM Scientist Ben Kirtman Helps Co-Author Nat’l Academy of Sciences Document
About the University of Miami and its Rosenstiel School
The University of Miami’s mission is to educate and nurture students, to create knowledge, and to provide service to our community and beyond. Committed to excellence and proud of the diversity of our University family, we strive to develop future leaders of our nation and the world. Founded in the 1940’s, the Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science has grown into one of the world’s premier marine and atmospheric research institutions. Offering dynamic interdisciplinary academics, the Rosenstiel School is dedicated to helping communities to better understand the planet, participating in the establishment of environmental policies, and aiding in the improvement of society and quality of life. For more information, please visit www.rsmas.miami.edu
I hope they do not start messing with the Met Oficc seasonal forecasts , we really do rely on them in Britain , if they say cold we know it will be warm , warm we know it will be cold etc etc , they still use the code they used to confuse the Germans in the last war , devilishly cunning and only really confuses foreigners !!
“Well, they could start improving their forecasts by reading the Old Farmers Almanac (who seem to do a better job than most…) ”
Has anybody else noticed that market-driven long-term forecasts tend to be more accurate than those from any government agency? It seems almost like the government agencies have some ulterior motive…
Kepler was good at this, he had knowledge into what is driving the short term variations.
From what I can see, there should a number of uplifts in temperature this Autumn, the mid and end of September, the mid and end of October, so roughly every 2 weeks, giving plenty of above normal conditions. November I expect to be very mild, and amongst the warmest on record.
Send them all to study the Bermuda triangle, when the next hurricane comes!
Part of thier mission is”to create knowledge”? I think a school mission should be to pass on knowledge or to discover knowledge. “Creating” knowledge sounds fishy to me.
I started a comprehensive response to this paper, but by the time I got through detailing some of the thoughts and opinions that I thought they might find helpful, I had ranted too much. So I just started a new blog post over on my site, where I am still reworking ideas over for clarity.
I will respond again later (with links) when I get it more polished. Too [****] long to drop complete into someone else’s blog respectfully.
latitude says:
September 9, 2010 at 7:32 am
Rhys, this site rates them:
http://www.forecastadvisor.com/
That’s a good site. Just from a brief straw poll, it seems the further east you go, the less accurate the weather forecasts. It’s that “land” thing, messing stuff up.
“there should a number of uplifts in temperature this Autumn, the mid and end of September, the mid and end of October,”
Not sure where from the script. Here in central MN we’ve had an early start to fall since the 1st of Sept. Blocking Highs in Canada this winter will again result from the negative PDO and La Nina and we’ll see coldening most likely with a jet stream sweeping in around them from mid-Alaska.
From the paper: One of the most important boundary conditions for an atmospheric model is sea surface temperature (SST). Variations in SST can heat or cool the atmosphere, influence the rainfall patterns, and thus change the atmospheric circulation.
Yes and Roy Spencer would be happy to supply his thoughts.
NAS report: “There is an apparent plateau in our ability to make accurate seasonal forecasts”
I am not surprised. Climate “research” has been focused on how to prove CO2 regulates the climate for thirty or more years so politicians have an excuse to tax us. As long as there is no real research allowed into the peer reviewed journals, how the heck do you expect to progress instead of “plateau”
This report gives a good indication that the corruption in the area of climate research is finally taking its toll in a concrete manner. It was only a matter of time before the pixie dust settled.
Figure 1.4 from complete report, “Predictions from various statistical and dynamical models”, sums the report up rather nicely.
They can’t do it and they don’t know why.
Recap of their attitudes that lead to the problems they have now, and offer of assistance if they want it. Posted to own blog due to length, and I may be adding more soon.
http://research.aerology.com/improving-long-term-forecasting/
“However they seem to leave out the effects of the interactions of the Earth Moon system, as if the sun was just the overhead light that glares on their monitors, and the moon was not to be considered at all, due to past superstitions about allowing “astrology” into the sciences.
Systematic blocking of all grant fund applications for the study of Lunar cycles, since about 1950, has suppressed the study of the real tidal forces, and the various orbital resonance effects of the moon on the weather. Hence the parts that they are missing in solving the weather puzzle are almost all answered by looking at the timing of the effects of the moon on the weather.
Many of the cyclic periods, that they have a full pocket of acronyms for, are derived from the orbital dynamics of the Sun, moon, and planetary interactions affecting dynamic ocean / atmosphere oscillations, below I have pulled sections of their paper with comments and advice I could give them to fix the problems they are having.”
Z says:
September 9, 2010 at 2:20 pm
latitude says:
September 9, 2010 at 7:32 am
Rhys, this site rates them:
http://www.forecastadvisor.com/
That’s a good site. Just from a brief straw poll, it seems the further east you go, the less accurate the weather forecasts. It’s that “land” thing, messing stuff up.
I did the same thing, popped in a few cities and towns I’m familiar with around the country. The part that made me laugh the hardest was my home town had a highest accuracy rate of 66% (1/3rd or more inaccurate forecasts!) while LA was almost 90%.
It’s almost like those areas where you can just guess “warm and sunny” every day and be right most of the time are easy… unlike New England, where if you don’t like the weather, wait a minute.
gary gulrud says:
September 9, 2010 at 2:45 pm
“there should a number of uplifts in temperature this Autumn, the mid and end of September, the mid and end of October,”
Not sure where from the script.
…………………………………………………………………………
As I am working with predicting short term changes in the solar signal, this has a global impact, and would be apparent in the majority of land regions that are not subject to incursions of colder polar air, by local jet stream patterns and movements;
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/
Since mid January I have had no particular uncertainties, and forecasts for temperature deviations from normals for most regions (and the resultant changes in volume of precipitation) have been thoroughly on target.
Not too long ago many of the most intelligent minds on the planet were trying to make gold out of lead. Today, they’re trying to predict climate by the century and having just as much luck at it. Before you can push the envelope, you must first know where you are, and where it is.
PS: Human Progress is made via hard slogging work and is measured in inches over centuries, nothing of value is achieved via TV guest interview spots, or NYT articles, or by giving testimony to politicians, or by speeches to your likeminded backers. Mann-kind has its fools, super-fools and mega-fools and they’re all too busy to slog.
David Wright says:
September 9, 2010 at 5:25 am
Reports like this would be greatly improved by tossing out most of the jargon.
Reminds me of this prize won by the UK Met Office a couple of years ago.
An attempt by the Met Office to justify the inaccuracy of its weather forecasts has been picked out as one of this year’s worst examples of gobbledegook, at the annual Plain English Campaign awards.
By Matthew Moore
Last Updated: 6:14PM GMT 09 Dec 2008
The national weather forecaster was shamed for posting message on its website which explained in 45 words what could have been said in three: “We’re not sure.”
“Seasonal forecasts indicate how slowly-varying large-scale climate influences make particular seasonal conditions more likely than others. Random, unpredictable factors (‘chaos’) also partly determine year-to-year variations, and these will sometimes override large-scale influences. Such uncertainty makes a probabilistic format, as used here, advisable for seasonal forecasts,” it read.
Some might also be amused by this, thinks that there are those of a sceptical POV that think that “pollution” escapes to space through holes:
“Prince Charles baffled by ‘extraordinary’ climate change scepticism
The Prince of Wales said he found the views of climate change sceptics ”extraordinary”.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/theroyalfamily/7993756/Prince-Charles-baffled-by-extraordinary-climate-change-scepticism.html#dsq-content