Another hockey stick – meanwhile, the death of light bulbs

Kate at SmallDeadAnimals.com points out that there’s a new hockey stick afoot. With some homogenization and principal components analysis, I’m sure the past can be smoothed out.

From: United States Unemployment rate, Aug. 2010

Meanwhile, light bulb workers of America go dim as one of America’s proudest inventions disappears from production. Mr. Edison is scowling, wherever he is.

From the Washington Post, Sept. 8, 2010;

The last major GE factory making ordinary incandescent light bulbs in the United States is closing this month, marking a small, sad exit for a product and company that can trace their roots to Thomas Alva Edison’s innovations in the 1870s.

What made the plant here vulnerable is, in part, a 2007 energy conservation measure passed by Congress that set standards essentially banning ordinary incandescents by 2014. The law will force millions of American households to switch to more efficient bulbs.

Now the hoarding begins.

Expect container loads from China arriving on our shores soon, at least until 2017 when they’ll disappear there tooor will they?

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DirkH
September 10, 2010 7:41 am

Beege Welborn says:
September 10, 2010 at 7:00 am
“As an artist, attempting to paint by the light of even the “daylight” CFLs is a miserable experience in squintage. I hate it. HATE THEM with a passion.”
Interesting picture of the spectrum of a CFL:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CFLspectrum.agr.jpg
from this article:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compact_fluorescent_lamp
Looks like they slowly improve the spectrum. For the time being i would just use Halogen lamps when painting.

DirkH
September 10, 2010 7:45 am

Dave says:
September 10, 2010 at 6:46 am
“[…] I mean, seriously, is the best we can do for light really to heat up a piece of wire until it glows white hot?”
If you want a continuus spectrum, it’s a rather elegant solution.

John T
September 10, 2010 7:56 am

I use CFLs in some places, but they are simply not suitable for other places.
1) Many of them have an annoying hum. I didn’t think they were supposed to do that.
2) They require a “warm-up” period. When I turn the lights on, I want them on, not at 50% slowly going up.
3) Not compatible with dimmer switches.
4) They don’t seem to do very well outside when its cold.

John McManus
September 10, 2010 8:27 am

What, no complaints about the damage Edison did to the kerosene lamp business?
Edison fired a scientis who showed him a fluorescent bulb. Ol Tom was not going to let any scientist stand in the way of his sales of incandesents. Where would we be without Edison. O! I know : we wouls have more efficient DC long distance power transmission and more efficient 220 systems .
When I bought a Kilawatt off ebay a few years ago, I dropped my household use by 50%. Old fashioned bulbs accounted for 20% : cfc’s hardly show up on the meter. Why should I use an inferior technology to make [.] snip feel less inadequate?
Do You use fluorescent buls in your office? Most businesses do because there are a better ,cheaper more reliable technology.

slp
September 10, 2010 8:36 am

As mentioned by Adam Gallon above, rough service bulbs, those rated at 130V (here in the US), are exempt, as are flood lamps and decorative bulbs. That is what I usually prefer to buy anyway since they last longer.

September 10, 2010 8:49 am

Malaga View September 9, 2010 at 2:41 pm

Thankfully, there is a very Spanish response to these new rules: switch across to new fittings with Halogen light bulbs… bright light… no mercury… no warming up period… no stumbling around in dull dim light.
Add a dimmer switch for more versatile lighting and lower electricity bills… works very well for me… but I am sure the EU will make this illegal as it is far too sensible.

Be aware that Halogens require to be operated at or above a specific temperature such that the Halogen cycle is operative:

The function of the halogen [cycle] is to set up a reversible chemical reaction with the tungsten evaporating from the filament.
In ordinary incandescent lamps, this tungsten is mostly deposited on the bulb.
The halogen cycle keeps the bulb clean and the light output remains almost constant throughout life.
At moderate temperatures the halogen reacts with the evaporating tungsten, the halide formed being moved around in the inert gas filling. At some time it will reach higher temperature regions, where it dissociates, releasing tungsten and freeing the halogen to repeat the process. In order for the reaction to operate, the overall bulb temperature must be higher than in conventional incandescent lamps.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halogen_lamp
.

September 10, 2010 8:56 am

Murray Duffin conveying an ignorance of history on September 10, 2010 at 6:48 am writes:
OMG that bill was passed in 2007, by the RIGHT. We are doomed!!

Completely wrong, but hey, you’re still doomed.

United States House of Representatives elections, 2006
The 2006 US House election was held on November 7, 2006 to elect members to the United States House of Representatives.
All of the 435 seats in the House were up for election. Those elected served in the 110th United States Congress from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2009.
The incumbent majority party, the Republican Party had controlled the house since the 1994 election and was defeated by the Democrats who won a majority in the House ending 12 years in opposition.

From wickedpedia …
.

September 10, 2010 9:07 am

Mark Young September 10, 2010 at 5:36 am
.. . Basically, if you dim bulbs, they last a long time

An X10 wall switch has kept ‘alive’ the same incandescent bulb in a hallway for over a decade now in daily service …
The moral of the story: apply the mains voltage at the zero-crossover point on a cold bulb AS OPPOSED TO some random point (determined by a random flip of a simple SPST wall switch) on the incoming AC sinusoidal mains voltage.
AC 120 (RMS) yields a peak voltage = 1.414 x RMS = 170 V pk (approx), and this could be applied to a *cold* filament which has a fraction of the resistance of a hot filament.
For example, a 100-watt, 120-volt lamp has a resistance of 144 ohms when lit, but the cold resistance is much lower (about 9.5 ohms) (credit bulb R: wiki)
.

September 10, 2010 9:25 am

Ian L. McQueen September 9, 2010 at 6:48 pm

An interesting trivium about CFLs is that their power factor is 0.5, meaning that the power supplier has to pump twice as much energy into the power lines as is used by the bulb (and pardon the oversimplification of power factor!!).

[snip]
The figure is not “twice as much energy” but instead is “twice as much current” (the figure may not be exactly twice… [snip]
There *is* a difference, most people conflate/confuse the two … I^2 * R losses (‘energy’ or power losses) will occur in the lines, and must be supplied by generation, but the losses only occur out to where the first power-correction capacitor banks are placed on the distribution lines (yes, the power co has at least gotten this wise).
[please be polite when correcting other people – some are only striving to make sure they are also understood by less technical readers, of which there are many ;-). Your tone leaves something to be desired. jove ~mod]
.

Gary Pearse
September 10, 2010 9:27 am

The greens have to let engineering do its thing. A typical green product (Dr. Suzuki figures prominently in Canadian ads) the curly light bulb concentrates on one aspect of environment- saving energy while they ignore that it is a comeback for mercury. Also, my daughter had a mysterious illness – dizziness, nausea, itching after installing the curliques. Her doctor didn’t know what it could be but asked what was new at home. She removed the bulbs and the symptoms disappeared. Anyone here of such a thing in connection with these bulbs?

James P
September 10, 2010 9:30 am

You might be amused to know that the EU has also outlawed the sale of traditional mercury barometers, on the grounds that they would be difficult to dispose of, ignorant of the fact that they were very expensive and most people planned to keep them forever.
Mercury in CFL’s and dental fillings is OK, of course…

Tamara
September 10, 2010 9:44 am

The death of incandescents will have other unintended consequences: no more bubble lights or lava lamps! 🙁
I don’t mind the LED lights, except in my Christmas decorations. There’s just nothing like the soft golden glow of incandescent Christmas lights shining through the snow. The new LEDs are still too harsh and blue, and when you get the colored strands they end up looking purple from a distance. The full-spectrum white light is over rated. It is cold, not warm and inviting, which makes a big difference in a Michigan winter.

Pull My Finger
September 10, 2010 10:12 am

First they ban incandesent lights.
Then they ban the internal combustion engine.
Then come the come the re-education camps for “Denialists”.
Then comes “Don’t worry, it’s only a shower”.
OK, maybe there will be a few intervening steps. 🙂
[. . . ] snip . . is it helpful? . . .mod

PhilJourdan
September 10, 2010 10:25 am

Hehehe….. I stocked up!
I tried one of the new bulbs in the utility room – my wife told me to leave the light on so she did not have to turn it on!
So I replaced it with a “less efficient” bulb that would not be left on.

PhilJourdan
September 10, 2010 11:01 am

Murray Duffin says:
September 10, 2010 at 6:48 am
OMG that bill was passed in 2007, by the RIGHT. We are doomed!!

Pelosi and Reid are right? You must think Mao Tse Tung is a soul mate of Rush Limbaugh!

kadaka (KD Knoebel)
September 10, 2010 11:11 am

From: Ric Werme on September 10, 2010 at 5:05 am

For the same power consumption and filament length, a 130VAC lamp will need a thinner filament. It’s higher resistance means less current, needed to keep power consumption the same.
The gain in lifetime usually comes from the lower temperature that the filament runs at, and that means there’s less evaporation or rearrangement of the filament. The “burnout when switched on” phenomenon comes from the thermal/mechanical stress acting on a weakened filament, so what you’re seeing is simply less wear on the filament.

I carefully said stronger not thicker, with “stronger” used synonymously with “more durable,” applicable for 120VAC versus 130 at 120.
It’s basically as you said, which can be read about here, but not necessarily so. You did mention filament length, however from a manufacturing standpoint it may make more sense to simply use a slightly longer filament rather than stock and worry about different sizes of the ultra-fine tungsten wire when switching between making 120 and 130VAC bulbs. The machinery is set up to handle a certain diameter wire, so do you readjust all the wire-handling machines, or tweak the finished length?
There is also the issue as to whether the filament is pure tungsten or alloyed, which represents another possible way to change the resistance.
In any case, it’s still the same effect as mentioned in these comments with regards to using dimmers. With the bulbs so cheap, they’re designed for efficiency over lifespan by running the filaments very hot. A slight drop in voltage from as designed, whether by the 130 on 120 change or by dimmer switch, drops the operating temperature thus greatly increasing the lifespan. However since dimmers, as with the mechanical rheostat versions and even the electronic ones, reduce the output voltage in ways that generate heat, if longer life is the sole goal then 130V bulbs make more sense.

James P
September 10, 2010 12:18 pm

Jim
“Be aware that Halogens require to be operated at or above a specific temperature such that the Halogen cycle is operative”
This is perfectly true, but that feature is built-in (one reason they are particularly bright), so I’m not quite sure what point you’re making.
They certainly give a lovely light. They are widely used in stage lighting, where you need power and an even spectrum. LED’s can be used for colour mixing, but are generally too feeble, and CFL’s don’t feature at all.

James P
September 10, 2010 12:22 pm

Phil
“I tried one of the new bulbs in the utility room – my wife told me to leave the light on so she did not have to turn it on!”
That’s the Law of Unintended Consequences for you. The only CFL’s we use are in utility areas where they tend to get left on. The overall power consumption is about the same as a (switched) tungsten bulb…

James P
September 10, 2010 12:31 pm

Roger
“Does less black ink lower one’s carbon footprint”
Probably, but the likely cause is the switch from oil to water-based ink, for elf’n’safety type reasons. They don’t light fires so well, either…

kadaka (KD Knoebel)
September 10, 2010 12:42 pm

slp said on September 10, 2010 at 8:36 am:

As mentioned by Adam Gallon above, rough service bulbs, those rated at 130V (here in the US), are exempt, as are flood lamps and decorative bulbs. That is what I usually prefer to buy anyway since they last longer.

I dug a new but old GE “Ruff-Service Bulb” out of the cabinet. Specs on the package: 100W, 120V, 1160 lumens, 1000 hours expected life. Seems best to check the rated voltage regardless of whether it is “rough service” or not.
For comparison, I dug out a 24-count “contractor pack” of Sylvania standard light bulbs, 75W at 130V. The numbers are on the box for use at both 130 and 120V.
130V: 75W, 750 hours, 1210 lumens.
120V: 66W, 1875 hours, 895 lumens.
For equal 100W 120V numbers, I found the following on the on-box “comparison chart” of a Sylvania halogen bulb.
Soft white: 750 hours, 1750 lumens.
Halogen: 2250 hours, 1850 lumens.
Clarification: That was a mere rough service bulb, which has a “heavy duty” filament that withstands shocks better, as in you can drop the trouble light (aka drag light, service light, work light) on the floor and the filament will not automatically break. Unlike the ones with the rubbery coating, don’t expect the globe to be more shatter resistant than a standard bulb, nor able to withstand water (snow, raindrops) any better.
By the numbers, rough service bulbs for normal use don’t make sense. They may only be 120V, you have to check. The light output per watt is less. The moderate lifetime increase (120V) doesn’t justify what I have found to be a huge price difference. If there was an odd case like vibration from a nearby appliance was causing regular bulbs to die quickly, then a rough service may be indicated.
Now, while you can, stock up on the 130V standard light bulbs. As far as the light output difference goes, you can use a 100W 130V in place of a 75W 120V, or a 75W 130V for a 60W 120V (not exceeding the maximum wattage rating of the socket, of course), and still be ahead money-wise over standard bulbs.
BTW, rough service bulbs may be on the way out regardless. Cheap fluorescent trouble lights have been on the market for awhile, LED ones are now on the market that are also rechargeable (no cord to drag around the drag light with). That rough service incandescent bulb I have is new yet old because I switched to the fluorescent ones, and no longer get burned when working close to the light. I foresee that market forces driven by customer preferences will make incandescent trouble lights a thing of the past, and with them will go their rough service bulbs.

John Innes
September 10, 2010 12:55 pm

The thing about CFLs that I like is that they draw so little power you can leave them on permanently.

Tim
September 10, 2010 1:18 pm

First post sums it up. Plasma
http://www.luxim.com/
at 140 lumes per watt (70 for led, 60 for cfl, 15 for incand) it works
we’ll have to see if they can scale up but looks good so far

Mike M
September 10, 2010 1:37 pm

Without incandescent I’m going back to gas lighting. It’s very romantic and produces a lot of CO2 to keep my house plants happy.
Count me in to buy up the incandescent line and put it in mothballs until sensible people in government, (i.e. the ones who actually believe in the idea of limited government), repeal the silly law.

kadaka: A slight drop in voltage from as designed, whether by the 130 on 120 change or by dimmer switch, drops the operating temperature thus greatly increasing the lifespan.

That’s true but also … The inrush current for the first few AC cycles is what does the most to suck the life out of a filament. The initial current is many times the operating current resulting in a very fast rise in temperature which them results in a very hard mechanical jolt from the sudden thermal expansion of the material. So while it’s still cold and brittle, the mechanical jolt during the first few cycles creates cracks on the surface of the tungsten. Those cracks then become points of higher resistance creating hot spots one of which becoming the ultimate point of failure in the future.
Using a dimmer to ramp up the light bulb every time you turn it on ought to approach the life of a bulb left on continuously.

September 10, 2010 1:52 pm

We run a series of on-line experiments since January 2009 comparing incandescent lamps and CFL’s, especially regarding their different switching withstand.
You may look here: bmb.lcd.lu; this site also contains a lot of other information and comments regarding CFL’s.

Spector
September 10, 2010 1:54 pm

For me, the primary advantage of the new fluorescent bulbs is that they do not need to be replaced as frequently. So far, however, the local waste disposal service has no provision for collecting them. I do not expect to save any money as a result of their high efficiency.