From an AGU press release, potential charges for failure to forecast an earthquake. h/t to Dr. Leif Svalgaard.
Scientists May Face Manslaughter Charges After Earthquake
22 June 2010
AGU Science Policy Alert 10-18
Seven Italian scientists and government officials are under investigation on charges of manslaughter for failure to warn the city of L’Aquila, Italy, before an earthquake hit last year, killing hundreds. The scientists and officials under investigation, who are employees of the National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and the Civil Protection Department, took part in a meeting of the Major Risks Committee on 31 March 2009. At the meeting, the committee told L’Aquila city officials that “just because a small series of quakes has been observed [in L’Aquila] there is no reason to suggest that the sequence of low-magnitude tremors are a precursor to a major event,” which was deemed “improbable, although not impossible.” However, on 6 April 2009, the city was struck by a Mw 6.3 earthquake that killed 308 people.
The criminal charges against these scientists and officials are unfounded. Despite decades of scientific research in Italy and in the rest of the world, it is not yet possible to accurately and consistently predict the timing, location, and magnitude of earthquakes before they occur. It is thus incorrect to assume that the L’Aquila earthquake should have been predicted. The charges may also harm international efforts to understand natural disasters and mitigate associated risk, because risk of litigation will discourage scientists and officials from advising their government or even working in the field of seismology and seismic risk assessment.
Science is making critical contributions to the understanding and mitigation of earthquake hazards in Italy and the world. Examples include providing tools such as seismic risk maps to determine areas of greatest vulnerability, improving seismic wave analysis so that we can better understand how the Earth moves during an earthquake, and increasing our capabilities for seismic monitoring and for providing rapid information on earthquake location and severity for early warning systems and first responders.
It is in the best interest of all countries to reduce earthquake vulnerability through awareness, preparation, and mitigation. Local government officials should work with scientists and engineers to prepare for seismic hazards in that region. To truly mitigate earthquake risk, governments must utilize the long-term hazard assessment, post-earthquake Shake Maps, and other tools created by seismologists to educate residents and inform sound infrastructure policy. Communities can increase their earthquake preparedness through implementation of building codes based on these long-term hazard assessments, retrofitting older buildings, improving emergency response, and increasing public awareness of the hazard and individual responsibility during and after these tragic events.
In support of the Italian scientists and officials, the INGV has written an open letter to the President of the Republic of Italy. The letter is open for public signatures and, as of 21 June 2010, has 5,028 signatories from around the world, many of whom are geoscientists. Please sign the letter and pass this information on to your colleagues if you support these seven scientists and officials and their right to conduct best scientific practices without risk of persecution.
Update 28 June: The letter has been closed for signatures with 5,165 signatories.
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Alan Wilkinson says:
September 4, 2010 at 10:13 pm
Christchurch, NZ, has just been hit by a 7.1 earthquake without a single death – some good fortune but also good management of building construction and remedial work.
You forgot the background – L’Aquila is rather several hundred years old, the Christchurch was build from scratch in modern times. Add to this human nature and the habit shaped through the times with small tremors common like seasons.
Regards
I’m guessing there are going to be a lot of geologists, seismologists, and meteorologists getting away from Italy’s Government Infrastructure. This is just plain nut-bag stuff here. I thought Mussolini’s reign was over?
I think there are lots of comments hear that fail to understand Italian law. In Italy, someone is ‘usually’ to blame for an incident. Hence the prosecution of the Williams Formula 1 racing team over Ayrton Senna’s death. It’s just the way their law deals with accidents. Ultimately, the trial is to show that the accused weren’t indeed to blame – but the trial must be seen to be done.
I don’t want to get involved with comments about the trial of Amanda Knox (as Rice Werme does), but I will say that any American reading this should follow the same advice! The prosecutions of US soldiers over the massacre at My Lai should preclude commenting on foreign oddities in law – as did the trial of O J Simpson. The rest of the world doesn’t understand, to this day, America’s legal dealings with either, and many more.
Let Italy have its trial, and you’ll see the scientists found not guilty. But as I said, there has to be a trial under Italian law, it’s just the way they operate their legal system
Dodgy Geezer says:
September 5, 2010 at 12:36 am
Can we sue the politicians for not providing proper warning of the recent economic crisis? As I recall, right up to the collapse they were saying that there was nothing to worry about…..
__________________________________________________
Oh yes we SHOULD sue the politicians but that is a cause and effect issue:
From January 29, 1989
“….These days, corporations seem to exist for the investment bankers…. In fact, investment banks are replacing the publicly held industrial corporations as the largest and most powerful economic institutions in America…. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A VICIOUS spiral has begun, as each corporate player seeks to improve its standard of living at the expense of another’s. Corporate raiders transfer to themselves, and other shareholders, part of the income of employees by forcing the latter to agree to lower wages.” New York Times: LEVERAGED BUYOUTS: AMERICAN PAYS THE PRICE
Statistics (courtesy of Bridgewater) showed in 1990 Foreign ownership of U.S. assets amounted to 33% of U.S. GDP. By 2002 this had increased to over 70% of U.S. GDP. http://www.fame.org/HTM/greg%20Pickup%201%2010%2003%20report.htm
Clinton repealed the Glass-Steagall Act which had prevented the coupling of investment banking and lending by signing into law the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. It allowed commercial and investment banks to consolidate. Economist Robert Kuttner said the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act contributed to the 2007 subprime mortgage financial crisis. The Community Reinvestment Act, enacted in 1977 under Jimmy Carter, forced banks to downgrade the quality of their mortgage portfolios by making mortgage initiators lower credit standards to less qualified borrowers in poorer communities. The act was expanded further during Bill Clinton’s presidency, creating a higher percentage and a larger pool of subprime mortgages.
http://moneymorning.com/2009/01/13/deregulation-financial-crisis/
It took twenty years but the payment has finally come due.
Where do shamans and witchdoctors buy malpractice insurance? AIG sells anything and is gubment owned.
These men did not cause the earthquake. They are performing a service like the media. They can report what they see and not what has not happened.
Sueing for Acts of God ? Try the Pope, at least he’s got lots of the people’s cash and he can square it with God later (or in his case, sooner) !
“Gail Combs says:
September 5, 2010 at 4:31 am”
Wonderful snippet! Add Regan to that list of politicians leading economic crisis. But also consider, the entire western worlds financial system is based on a 300 year old system of interest bearing debt. Thanks to the Bank Of England!
Well, lawyers have to earn a living somehow. 😉
If earthquakes cannot be predicted then why did the scientists predict an earthquake to be improbable? Why do we pay scientists to do things that are not possible? Why do we allow them to make false claims?
Charging scientists with manslaughter is nonsensical. They should have been reprimanded or perhaps fired for implying they knew an earth quake was unlikely to happen. That is professional misconduct IMO.
Obviously, the UN is to blame. Earthquakes have been a part of our world for a long time and the possibility of catastrophe is always eminent somewhere. If they fund a group to look into the possibility of climate gone wild (CO2 bad), then earthquake modeling should obviously had higher priority. It’s their failure to use their incredibly robust talents to save us from earthquakes, that is at the heart of this and other tragedies worldwide;)
Scientists – the new sacrificial lambs (what no more virgins left?)
Tom in Florida says:
September 5, 2010 at 5:44 am
Scientists – the new sacrificial lambs (what no more virgins left?)
In my former posts I forget to add that scientists employed by state or local authorities/administrations became office clerks or bureaucrats and from then were part of Bureaucracy Empire not the Science World.
Regards
So the earthquake scientists set themselves up on a pedestal, claiming their science was more “robust” than it really was, and now they are being held accountable.
Sound familiar?
This sort of takes things to the realm of the twilight zone … What next, no one will do anything, because government does everything, fails, but can’t be sued.
This is what the global warming hoax has led science to, and it’s their own damn fault.
I think I got it, they don’t build buildings like they used to in Italy but they still prosecute scientists like they used to.
PaulH says:
September 5, 2010 at 5:13 am
Well, lawyers have to earn a living somehow. 😉
do you have evidence for that statement?
The headline on this article is misleading. The request for a criminal investigation is not because they failed to forecast a major earthquake, but rather because they did forecast the that there was little danger “because the series of small tremors was releasing the built up energy.”
They made the cardinal sins telling people what to do rather than stating the facts and got then facts wrong. This article http://articles.sfgate.com/2009-07-10/bay-area/17216632_1_san-andreas-tremors-san-simeon discusses how a series of tremors could lead up to a major earthquake.
This reminds me too much of the movie “Dante’s Peak” where political influence was used to downplay the danger for fear of panic. The investigation should proceed to find out if there was political influence here. Look at the emails and phone logs.
J. Hansford said:
“Science should keep its nose out of politics and stick to seeking knowledge instead of seeking government funding.”
As a scientist, I can assure you that I would bwe happy to seek knowledge, but someone must give me funding. As as the situation is, it is mostly the government. Private funding isn’t so keen on people just seeking knowledge. They want industrial applications only.
Can we see employment contracts that the workers accept liability for reporting location and times of earthquakes? Even docs get sued but only for what did and never for forecasting error.
“Gary P says:
September 5, 2010 at 6:44 am
The request for a criminal investigation is not because they failed to forecast a major earthquake, but rather because they did forecast the that there was little danger “because the series of small tremors was releasing the built up energy.”
And that is the falacy perpetuated by “experts” that tremors “release built up energy” thus leading to less damaging events. Of course, anyone in the real, unpaid, world of the study of geology and tectonics would dispute this. Well I certainly do.
dave38 says:
September 5, 2010 at 6:29 am
> PaulH says:
> September 5, 2010 at 5:13 am
> Well, lawyers have to earn a living somehow. 😉
do you have evidence for that statement?
Yes, read/hear/watch the media of the U.S.A.
Q.E.D.
I suggest to start with Michael Savage Radio Talk Show.
Regards
Patrick Davis says:
September 5, 2010 at 5:05 am
“Gail Combs says:
September 5, 2010 at 4:31 am”
Wonderful snippet! Add Regan to that list of politicians leading economic crisis. But also consider, the entire western worlds financial system is based on a 300 year old system of interest bearing debt. Thanks to the Bank Of England!
____________________________________________________
It actually goes back to the nasty practices of the goldsmith’s lending out more gold via IOUs or gold receipts than they actually held and then collecting interest on the nonexistent gold they loaned out.
The Origins of Fractional Reserve Banking
This is a pamphlet on the modern version
A PRIMER ON MONEY: by US House Committee on Banking and Currency
(where is jim to defend collecting interest on fairy dust??)
I think this is a very interesting situation just in asking that scientists be accountable. Modeling of any sort is half voodoo science and half fact. If geologists, seismologists and vulcanologists are allowed to claim that their science is not predictable, why should climate scientists be allowed to say that theirs is? I don’t think anything in nature is predictable. We just don’t know enough to make models work subwhat accurately. I’m waiting for the first court case against climate scientists for advocating wind and solar power. This will come after the first deadly winter, probably in Europe or the UK, where there isn’t enough power to heat homes.
I remember a dust up caused by an earthquake related ‘prediction’ that happened here in California a few decades ago. However, the nature of the indignation resulting from the ‘prediction’ was the other end of the spectrum from what has happened in Italy.
In 1980, nearly coincident with the eruption of Mt. St. Helens, there was a series of moderate earthquakes (four magnitude 6 and tens of magnitude 4 and 5) within and immediately around a Quaternary volcanic center in northeast California known as the Long Valley Caldera. The town of Mammoth Lakes and associated ski resort are located on the eastern flank of Mammoth Mountain, a Quaternary volcano at the southwestern edge of the caldera. The nature of the seismicity, combined with increasing volcanic gas emissions and ground surface deformation over the next two years prompted the USGS to issue a ‘notice of potential volcanic hazard’ in 1982.
Earthquake and related activity decreased soon thereafter, but the ‘damage’ was done. The ‘damage’ was to resort and real estate interests in the Mammoth Lakes area that suffered short term drops in visitors and real estate prices. The USGS recieved criticism in the press from the affected business interests. The perception was that USGS was over zealous and had acted prematurely with their hazard warning.
The criticism received by the USGS over this event has been said to have changed their criteria for issuance of geohazard warnings. Taken in combination with the nature of the charges being made against the Italian geologists, this shows that the scientists responsible for geohazard prediction are operating between a rock and a hard place! We should be so fortunate as to have climate scientists constrained to operate within the same tight space.
Ahem, the concept of interest bearing debt is older than 300 years, and didn’t originate with the Bank of England. Would one prefer to have debt not bear interest? If so, how would one move financial capital to higher, and better uses? What would be the measure? If interest bearing debt is a problem for an economy, then it must follow that the Islamic countries have the best functioning and most advanced economies, right? Eliminate interest and you’ll soon have no capital formation.
The almost ancient quotation from 1989 about the dangers of leveraged buyouts is about as relevant as the 1980s worries about Japan overtaking the US as the world’s biggest economy. Leveraged buyouts often, not always, move assets toward better uses. Leverage is a problem only when one bets wrong on interest rates.
Finally to quote Robert Kuttner is to have given up all hope of making an economic argument using facts. The man is an imbecile with a megaphone.