From an AGU press release, potential charges for failure to forecast an earthquake. h/t to Dr. Leif Svalgaard.
Scientists May Face Manslaughter Charges After Earthquake
22 June 2010
AGU Science Policy Alert 10-18
Seven Italian scientists and government officials are under investigation on charges of manslaughter for failure to warn the city of L’Aquila, Italy, before an earthquake hit last year, killing hundreds. The scientists and officials under investigation, who are employees of the National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) and the Civil Protection Department, took part in a meeting of the Major Risks Committee on 31 March 2009. At the meeting, the committee told L’Aquila city officials that “just because a small series of quakes has been observed [in L’Aquila] there is no reason to suggest that the sequence of low-magnitude tremors are a precursor to a major event,” which was deemed “improbable, although not impossible.” However, on 6 April 2009, the city was struck by a Mw 6.3 earthquake that killed 308 people.
The criminal charges against these scientists and officials are unfounded. Despite decades of scientific research in Italy and in the rest of the world, it is not yet possible to accurately and consistently predict the timing, location, and magnitude of earthquakes before they occur. It is thus incorrect to assume that the L’Aquila earthquake should have been predicted. The charges may also harm international efforts to understand natural disasters and mitigate associated risk, because risk of litigation will discourage scientists and officials from advising their government or even working in the field of seismology and seismic risk assessment.
Science is making critical contributions to the understanding and mitigation of earthquake hazards in Italy and the world. Examples include providing tools such as seismic risk maps to determine areas of greatest vulnerability, improving seismic wave analysis so that we can better understand how the Earth moves during an earthquake, and increasing our capabilities for seismic monitoring and for providing rapid information on earthquake location and severity for early warning systems and first responders.
It is in the best interest of all countries to reduce earthquake vulnerability through awareness, preparation, and mitigation. Local government officials should work with scientists and engineers to prepare for seismic hazards in that region. To truly mitigate earthquake risk, governments must utilize the long-term hazard assessment, post-earthquake Shake Maps, and other tools created by seismologists to educate residents and inform sound infrastructure policy. Communities can increase their earthquake preparedness through implementation of building codes based on these long-term hazard assessments, retrofitting older buildings, improving emergency response, and increasing public awareness of the hazard and individual responsibility during and after these tragic events.
In support of the Italian scientists and officials, the INGV has written an open letter to the President of the Republic of Italy. The letter is open for public signatures and, as of 21 June 2010, has 5,028 signatories from around the world, many of whom are geoscientists. Please sign the letter and pass this information on to your colleagues if you support these seven scientists and officials and their right to conduct best scientific practices without risk of persecution.
Update 28 June: The letter has been closed for signatures with 5,165 signatories.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Italy has not been long on brains since Fermi left. The hubris of “science” has overtaken common sense. Does anyone remember that Vesuvius gave indelible warnings for 4 days prior to the destruction of Pompeii? And all authorities said there was nothing to fear? Unfortunately the word ‘pompous’ is unrelated. But it does fit Gore’s nonsense.
@Dennis Nikols, P.Geol. says: September 4, 2010 at 9:20 pm
@anna v says: September 4, 2010 at 9:26 pm
Some very interesting and thought provoking stuff here.
Naturally, any boffin beavering away in his ivory tower (and particularly those who tear themselves away from their computer screens to go out into the real world and take a few measurements) is going to be tempted to make some predictions.
And, being human, they may well make them a bit more attention grabbing (and attractive to media arts graduates looking for a good story) than the state of the science can support. That’s why we always see all the carefully crafted weasel words “could”, “might”, “scientists believe” and all the rest of it.
They are only really to be blamed when they take their scenarios and, starting to believe them themselves, inflate them way past the level that the state of knowledge can justify.
Of course, the big Scientific Institutions (The Royal Society and all the rest) and the editors of the ‘big’ peer-reviewed journals should watch out for this and advise caution, not alarmism. We’ve seen how well that works. Not.
And then you get all the BigSnakeOil salesmen. Who pick up the scientists’ scares and twist them into something that will make them rich and powerful. The John Houghton, Crispin Tickell, Bob Watson, Maurice Strong, Rajendra Pachauri, Al Gore, Lord Oxburgh gang of creeps and racketeers.
They are the ones who should be first to appear behind a nice brass rail in the dock.
huh? So we are basically prosecuting them because they were too dumb to know what was going to happen? Would they be liable if they predicted an earthquake and it did not happen, thus they would need to pay for the preparation costs? This is absolutely insane, and the prosecutor should be dis-barred…
Can we sue the politicians for not providing proper warning of the recent economic crisis? As I recall, right up to the collapse they were saying that there was nothing to worry about…..
When does the L’Aquila IPCC investigation begin?
Let this issue go to court; perhaps then the Italian judiciary will underline the sheer nonsense of attempting to make scientists culpable for their reservations concerning any predictions on Earth’s frequent upheavals. On the other hand, those scientists who do predict natural disasters, and are found wanting, should be duly castigated.
As others have stated above, there is more to this story. Much as I don’t like to quote from the Guardian:
An Italian scientist who predicted a major earthquake near L’Aquila a few weeks ago was forced to remove warnings from the internet after being reported to the police, it emerged today.
Giampaolo Giuliani, a researcher at the National Physical Laboratory of Gran Sasso, based his forecast on emissions of radon gas coming from the ground in seismically active areas.
The first tremors in the region were felt in mid-January and continued at regular intervals, leading to concerns that a large earthquake was imminent in the medieval city.
Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after Giuliani predicted the quake was about to strike.
The scientists’ warnings drew criticism from the city’s mayor, and following complaints to the police, Giuliani was forced to take down warnings he had posted on the internet.
Full story at:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/06/italy-earthquake-predicted
This is what happens when “Scientists” take taxpayer money and give the impression that they know everything……So I can’t say I have too much sympathy if it has come back and bitten them on the bum.
If Scientists want to set themselves up as Godlike at everyone else’s expense… Then they can suffer the full consequences at any and all perceived failures….
Science should keep its nose out of politics and stick to seeking knowledge instead of seeking government funding.
You guys are so funny.
fhsiv says: “I don’t know about the building codes or code enforcement in Italy”.
Well, you can find out more if you read the tiny proportion of the Italian media which isn’t under the direct or indirect control of Council President (Prime Minister) Berlusconi. Italian politics revolves around the eternal struggle against corruption involving political parties (often with Mafia involvement) and the attribution of public building contracts.
Berlusconi made fantastic promises of rehousing and rebuilding after the earthquake, and desperately needs a diversionary story.
So my take is that the remarkably accurate warnings given by the scientist on the ground (Giampaolo Giuliani) that there was going to be an earthquake were ignored by the Town Major, and the more distant scientists from National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), . It could have been coincidence, but there also could well be something of great value in Guiliani’s radon gas emissions theory. Either way, this story has strong parallels with Ibsen’s Enemy of the People with its ‘the individual is always right’ meme. Which is something I have a lot of respect for (in an increasing number of disciplines, i.e. climate science, vaccine science/safety, not to mention the rather improbable collapse of building 7) given that the alternative is the madness of crowds.
Just remember Italy is the country that bought Manslaughter charges against the Williams racing team after the death of Ayrton Senna in Formula 1 1994 Italian race. This case is partly a function of the Italian legal system.
So does this mean the AGW crowd are liable for their failed predicitions? I notice Flannery when taken to task recently emphasized that despite demanding we follow his climate prophesies or be doomed that he said ‘could’, ‘might’ etc
This sort of heavy handed approach can only hinder progress towards a better understanding in fields that will always be prone to uncertainty. Still it is no more than I expect of our world, Nietzsche summed up it all neatly when he said:
Distrust all in whom the impulse to punish is powerful.”
“Alan Wilkinson says:
September 4, 2010 at 10:13 pm”
What is intersting, for me at least as I lived in New Zealand, is Christchurch is a considerable distance from the main active fault line which runs down the western side of the country down the Southern Alps. See here; http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/active-faults/1/1. That little blip to the south and east of Christchurch I think is an extinct volcano. I’d intereted to find out what focal depth this one was at. Shollow is typically tectonic, very deep (100’s of Kms) is typically volcanic.
There was an earth quake further south, in the Fiordland national park, early this year I think, which moved the wole region about 1m further north.
This is getting farcical. Last year, geologist Giampaolo Giuliano was reported to the police for scaremongering for forecasting the earthquake at L’Aquila!
http://draughtyoldfentales.blogspot.com/2009/04/earthquake.html
prior to this earthquake there was a scientist who tried to warn inhabitants of this town an earthquake was inniment by driving around using a loud hailer and i believe local authorities prevented him to do so . maybe charges of a kind are warranted .
i understand the scientist had detected large traces of radon gas and that was enough for him to warn people directly . remember 300 people died and obviously he knew something.
Earthquakes are beyond the scale of human knowledge. Nobody can predict the location, time or magnitude of an event with enough precision to help avoid casualties. The scientists involved in the Italian quakes are, therefore, not accountable.
However, the people in earthquake zones responsible for enforcing building regulations and organising rapid emergency response when events happen, are accountable if it can be proved there failures contributed to death or serious injury.
I see this as the Italian government trying to deflect public anger about their failings in their handling of the L’Aquila earthquake.
Come on they did their best. If they get sued then the next scientists will always exaggerate the risks just to cover their buts.
Earth quakes, flash floods, volcano’s, CO2 pools and a fascist government every 60 years..
It’s a hard life living in Italy.
Dave F says:
September 4, 2010 at 8:30 pm
How could a rational person blame them for this?
How? Really how? Have you watched Dante’s Peak (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dante%27s_Peak)? How many times “scientists” unlawfully “cooperated” with local or gov bureaucrats or let themselves be pushed by local authorities or were neglected and then did nothing else? Do you think the life is so simple? From what I have learned through my 50+ years is that Pecunia non olet – on every level of human activities.
The same scheme plots were applied to many other U. S. movies. Yeah, I know, the plots are captivating, but do you think they – the movie makers – conjured them up without knowing the reality?
Regards
There are ~16 million people who live in Istanbul, which sits on the Anatolian fault line. Quakes in the region along that fault over recent few decades have been slowly creeping towards Istanbul. Not if, but when.
There are ~16 million people who live in Naples, at the foot of Vesuvious. Not if, but when (Another Pompeii?).
Italy (thank the Gods ) has its own political mess, plus if you have 1,000 Italians, you have 1,001 political parties, so leave Italian politics to the Italians, it will, in time get sorted and the ruling concences will give some form of answer, or perhaps pass a law forbiding earthquakes.
The only answer to earthquakes is BUILDING CODES, just check out New Zealand with a 14,000 plus tremors a year, now a 7.1 earthquake and no deaths in the countries second largest city, but in world political circles, ( as in round and round ) provention is a lost word !
Just what we do not need. Science to be punished for saying “I do not know.”
This was/is a “Witch” hunt in the true sense of the word. No different than the middle-ages variety, except with those scientists as the targets.
[sarc] Aren’t we just so very enlightened in this modern world. [/sarc]